Looks like Zohran has a shot based on recent prediction market trends. Will be an unmitigated disaster for the city if he wins. Might have to get the fuck out of here. Know a lot of our real discretionary incomes have been declining for a few years now. This guy can only make it worse.
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Based on the most helpful WSO content, there isn't specific information about Zohran or the NYC mayoral race in the dataset provided. However, discussions around political shifts and their impact on cities often highlight concerns about policy changes affecting discretionary income, real estate markets, and overall economic conditions. For example, NYC's real estate market has been described as a "runaway train" in recent years, with some suggesting that political shifts could lead to structural changes or even a slowdown in growth.
If you're considering leaving NYC due to potential policy changes, it might be worth exploring cities with strong economic fundamentals, insatiable demand, and limited supply, such as Miami, which has been highlighted for its affordability relative to other major cities and access to foreign capital.
Sources: How will the results of the election affect Wall Street and the overall economy?, New NYC MF regulations, Will commercial RE be up down or flat in major cities/markets in 5 years?, What US city will see the most residential appreciation over the next 15 years?, The New-New Normal | The Daily Peel | 4/27/22
Surprised there is not more discussion about this, would be a nightmare if Zohran was elected
So much of nyc depends on these socialist programs that anyone pandering can have a serious shot of being elected
Half of my family escaped from a place that had government run grocery stores. Hint, they didn’t leave out of the abundance of food there…
It's like stores in the entire city. And we already pay for it thru grocery subsidies.
Guys - relax. Hochul already said there’s absolutely no chance she’ll allow a tax increase to happen. Rent freezes? Also not happening as he needs the state and city council for that. Most of his radical proposals are not realistic.
If anything, more housing and free buses seems great. Current rents in NYC are completely out of control.
No chance he opens up zoning for market rate housing though, he only wants affordable new development, which goes back to how the hell is he going to pay for it? Getting rid of parking minimums would be a great win though.
The rent board controls rent freezes which is appointed by the mayor.
Hochul can say that if she wants but the state likes to increase taxes on NYCs wealthy. And she is not popular and will probably be primaried.
Ranked choice with Cuomo, Adams, and him on the ballot in November would be very interesting.
November isn't ranked choice
I really hope he wins. I'll support any voting decision that hastens the flight of top financial firms & corporations to MIA/DAL and accelerates the decline of NYC/SF. He's exactly what the people of NYC deserve and would be a cherry on top to the clown show sundae of the last 2 mayors. I'm particularly interested in watching how the city is handles electing a Muslim & vocal Hamas sympathizer (it's clearly done wonders for London over the past decade), whose core propositions are nothing but poorly presented ideas lifted directly from a loose understanding of Karl Marx and CT with no thought given to feasibility of execution e.g. the government running at-cost grocery stores because "food is too expensive", make things free, lower police presence despite increasing crime, etc. LMFAO
He’ll struggle to enact anything and get comprised 2 years in anyway. Running a socialist or social democratic platform in the World’s eminent financial hub is not going to make any progress.
Nothing ever happens
You're probably right, but I'll keep on hoping. Unless I'm forced to move to NYC in which case I switch to a Cuomo hopeful lol
If he does get elected I'd bet you there will be a flight of major FIs to Florida and the tax base will collapse another 10-15%.
It’s still a step in the wrong direction for a city that is horribly run and in desperate need of reform (I love NYC)
My beautiful city. How could this happen? This hurts beyond belief.
Getting nothing done is not a great outcome either. City is a disaster
Fuck that. Please stop moving to Florida and Texas
I'm fine with the businesses coming but agreed, NYCers can sit and stew lol
Capitalism doesn’t work for the masses
Capitalism is the reason there ARE masses you ignorant sow. Name just 1 example of an entirely socialist developed society that is economically successful, doesn't suffer from food shortages, widespread poverty on par with developing nations, and has any semblance of human rights. You won't, because there are none.
Spoken like a true 21 year Ivy League grad with a trust fund
Being Anti Israel and a good politican are not mutually exclusive.
In fact, most people don't support Israel. So your comment is absurd.
What does supporting Israel have anything to do with what I said? He is explicitly pro-Hamas. You can disagree and even hate Israel's government and still not be a public terrorist sympathizer. Your comment isn't absurd, it's just dumb.
Myself and a bunch of friends have a similar hope that the industry moves and we are so sick and fucking tired of NYC, we're about 4 years in and almost all of us moved to NYC right before or during COVID. Maybe I don't know what it was like before, but the city is just pathetic and does not, in any way shape or form, live up to the "greatest city for arts, culture, food, nightlife, blah blah fucking blah" comments of the last 10-20 years and I find myself wondering if we're even talking about the same city...
Work (and the comp) has me by the balls but if a chunk of the large corporates in NYC moved functions and offices to Florida / Texas I actually would not mind the move at all. I was in Florida a few months back and was so close to staying I started looking at jobs and real estate.
Texas is unlivable, humid and congested.
Other than affordability, there is nothing in Texas that beats NYC.
This post by David Friedberg sums it up nicely - https://x.com/friedberg/status/1937593902456099315
I don’t agree with you on many things, namely the idiot in the Oval Office, but I do agree with you here. The US and its citizens have drank way too much of the “more government/more debt” koolaid and are now addicted. We need a city to overdose and be an example of why too much dependency on the government does not work. I thought SF was going to be the example, but maybe NYC will get there first or better yet maybe we’ll have 2 examples. Unfortunately, I think most people will probably blame the collapse of these cities on the rich and argue more government was needed.
Damn the first round looks horrible for Cuomo. It's literally over for NYC. Bankers are the most oppressed people in the country.
We’ll see what happens in the general election in November. Cuomo already will be running as an independent in the general.
Zohran ran a campaign basically begging young white college grads to vote in the primary - but the general election will almost certainly have a better turnout for Cuomo, as his voter demographic is older and less active in primaries.
Zohran won Hispanics.
Also the moderate dem types that Cuomo tried to get tend to vote. Older black voters vote in high numbers in primaries.
Enjoy more halal carts on every corner of Manhattan
“Bankers are the most oppressed people in the country”
If the Silver Spoon Socialist wins, his voters get what they deserve. To the rest of you, read about the Russian Revolution (1917).
Prediction markets at 100% zo. Haha great
If you’re actually happy about this…no words.
Unless you live in NYC (in which case my condolences), how can him winning be seen as anything other than a good thing? Let the big legacy T1 cities reckon with the utterly asinine politics they've promoted and allowed to fester. The rest of the country will benefit from the fallout and at least the current admin is certainly not going to bail them out. I recently visited Singapore and China for travel/interviewing and holy cow do their cities make ours look like dog shit. Gotta let them fail and collapse under their own idiocy if you want to rebuild.
Well my fund was going to move me to the gulf anyway. I thankfully now make enough that his tax policies would make a dent in my earnings…I’ll make my analysts work in the NYC office and go to roadshows and the like
So long America, it was fun. I’ll always love your standardised form fillings.
You will probably enjoy the Gulf. It’s basically a slave state. Today’s version of a South Carolina cotton plantation in 1850. If you keep possession of the passports and work documents of your household help, it’ll be just like owning slaves.
a nightmarish place.
Nothings gonna happen , he’ll get bogged down in bureaucracy and have another painfully New York mediocre mayoral term.
Nothing ever happens.
To you and the guy below, nothing happening is a fucking disaster. No housing will continue to be built. Really a tragedy.
Nothing will happen due to the bureaucracy but are we surprised this is the result? Vast majority of people in NY are struggling - not people on 250k/yr+ income. The stuff he says is actually appealing to that demographic.
Tbh not sure what’s so bad about him lol. I mean he’s populist af but so was trump when he campaigned. If you put aside Middle East politics and his inexperience / age: don’t think it’s that bad. Bad if you’re rich af tho and taxes go up but 99% of NY literally don’t care about the 1% lol.
General understanding of economics got me😂
No one is disputing that. The question is what actually helps those people. Mamdani doesn't actually have a plan for that, he just has sloganeering. He's actually quite like Trump in that way - promise anything and everything, and I'm certain when he realizes that he can't actually do any of it, he'll blame some sort of shadowy cabal of insiders as well.
It would be AMAZING if he could build a million homes as he promised. If he had a plan to fund them, to cut red tape to expedite their approval, etc. Anything other than what he did, which was take Adams' number and double it.
Democrats need politicians who can make modest promises and deliver on them, not pie in the sky moonshots or whatever and then fail miserably, eroding trust in the ability of government to get anything done.
This is spot on. He just says a whole lot of stuff that would appeal to your classic extreme left. All am saying and I think we all agree on this is that we can understand why what he says resonates with the majority of NY people. People don’t care about feasibility but at least the shit this guy says is ideologically aligned with what they think. I mean he could do fck all with the money but “tax the 1%” is always music to an extreme leftists ears.
Let me help you out there Oz.....he is then going to blame the Jews.
That's hilarious because Cuomo won by double-digits the cohort that makes under 100k. The socialist dominated the college / upper-income demographic.
It's the white liberal champagne socialists and middle income (largely the young & dumb) folks who support him. People with low income or from minority groups who struggle the most and would stand to potentially benefit the most from his proposals are a blow out in supporting Cuomo.
Hey, it’s hard living in Park Slope.
Can anyone fact check this? This is damning if true and it certainly supports your narrative, but I've been unable to verify. Source? Thank you!
If you're on a 250k income, you're not going to be affected by his tax policies directly.
No but you will be living in a hellscape. Whoever thinks the subway / transit / crime situation won’t get worse is insane.
Whoever comes back with stats about crime being lower needs to open their eyes. Does anyone feel great on subway right now? People who feel the city is in good shape are IYOs (intellectual yet idiot)
Does the November general election have a run off if no reaches 50%? That seems like the only way Mamdani could lose.
Cuomo will have an actual chance in November. Primaries are almost always decided by the most fringe members of a party, so it may actually not be the end of the world that a joke of a candidate won the primary. No one will vote for Adams, and since Sliwa is also a joke to everyone with fewer than half a dozen cats, I think Cuomo may attract a lot of crossover voting from Republicans.
Kind of sad that the best NYC can do is a corrupt machine politician and a moron, but... that's life in 2025.
Cuomo kisses the Jewish ring. Mamdami just needs to visit Israeli and he's in. Policies no different than every other communist democrat. He just doesn't support Israeli bombing the crap out of women and children.
Glad to see all the anti-semitic right wing nutjobs are coming back to WSO! Feels like old times...
I love all the economically illiterate commentary. This comment section is filled with peak finance bro behavior
“Economically illiterate commentary.” Let me simplify it for you. Rich people like to stay rich, and won’t stay someplace where being rich is harder than in another place.
Eh, I would argue that while some would certainly relocate, and have, there are a number places in the world where that doesn't apply.
NYC is, of course, near the top of the list. You can't get the NYC urban experience anywhere else in America, at the very least. Same with California and the weather. Certain areas have sticking power because of their unique appeal.
Do you realize the highest marginal income tax rate in the 60s was 90%+ on income over what would equate to $3M USD today and people still lived in cities with high state taxes? Silicon Valley has infinite billionaires and millionaires and for SOME ODD REASON they haven't all moved to Florida or Texas or whatever shithole state you want to name. Maybe Joe Rogan or Ben Shapiro can convince you that these places are paradise, but they are not. Wealth inequality is nearly as bad as during the industrial revolution and you're shilling for billionaires!
Thank you for demonstrating the validity of what I said
Love watching rich entitled folks forget that there’s many more of the poor and struggling than there are them. How long do you think this discrepancy between the wealthy and poor will be accepted. There so few who hold so many resources, you’ve done such a bad job at capitalism that socialism sounds like a good idea. Fools who killed the golden goose. You can only fool people so long, people are going hungry and homeless, your arguments for free market capitalism will fall on deaf ears especially since America hasn’t really ever experimented with socialism unlike the folks in South American countries who know it’s not all peaches and rainbows. You rich people need to take off your green eye shades and appease the masses before it’s too late and your bunkers won’t save you
The amusing thing is, of course, that most of people who are actually wealthy already know this and are just seeing how long they can get away with it, accumulating wealth and assets while they can. The loudest advocates of the status quo are the aspirational, who think that one day they'll wake up as one of the "self-made" billionaires. They'll defend the status quo on an ideological basis.
Those of us who’ve done well for ourselves (as I have) who admittedly aren’t a Bezos or Zuckerberg, still recognize that flawed though our economic system is, it is the least terrible option available to us. You people have no perspective.
Agreed. THey are retards and have blindly trod the path well travelled their entire lives.
Yeah…this is a load of bullshit. If you actually look at the polling, Cuomo overwhelmingly received support from women and minorities. Geographically, much of Mamdani’s support came from Brooklyn, demographically, it was concentrated amongst college-aged white men. This isn’t about the proletariat rising against those with money, it’s about entitled trust fund babies in Williamsburg and Bushwick who, being averse to work themselves, have no purpose in life besides being ashamed of the fact that they grew up wealthy, while, of course, whining to their parents for money. Research Ella Emhoff for one, she was particularly vocal about supporting Mamdani.
I can stomach rational political debates, but as someone who had to work his ass off to establish a career and livelihood, being lectured to about my (hard earned) “privilege,” by someone who grew up in Greenwich whining about how awful society is while spending their parents money in Brooklyn, I will not accept.
"We're the least bad option" is not a winning campaign slogan, sadly.
Some of you guys really need to understand what socialism is. Point out where in his policies he wants the state to own all means of production and where he wants a centrally planned economy. He’s left wing sure. But all his policies are in the capitalist framework.
Nothing will change in nyc. NYC is still the city to be in for finance and connections and that’s not changing anytime soon. Most of you here are analysts anyway you will not be affected at all banks are not leaving. Get back to aligning logos.
The agglomeration factors of nyc are absolutely vital. And you can’t get that anywhere else.
Now take a chill pill. Nothing will change. Get back to excel and ppt
Found the Brooklynite.
Haha valid. I’m honestly not stressed at all it’s a mayor it’s not a federal position. This will be chill nothing wjkl change and there will be a lot of populist posturing
Judging by the username, he probably hawked Sunnova securitizations until the company declared bk.
His policies have all failed in history even if they were grounded in a capitalist system. The name calls for free publicly subsidized food and transport even though transportation is already crap enough as is with it being a quasi public organization. The groceries are barely profitable as is. Nothing he says is grounded in economic reality and he will only lead NYC to ruin. Especially as a Jew, I don't want a pro-Hamas anti-Semite Mayor which will only embolden antisemitic Arabs, Muslims, and other ethnic groups to come after my people and I. If he wins, Jews will slowly but surely just leave NYC and head to surrounding cities, or straight up Miami which is very Jew friendly and anti-Jihad and Islam, along with anti-socialism and communism.
so presumably you want to move to a place that isn't just safe for you, but actively unsafe for people of another religion
curious take
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