Thoughts on Liberal/Carney Win in Canada?
Curious to hear general thoughts in the forum on the Carney win today. What does this mean going forward, was it what you were looking for?
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Let's put left/right aside, he is extremely smart when it comes to finance/economics. In terms of how it'll impact our jobs:
First time in decades we saw US 10y treasuries fall with market, Canadian DCM/LevFin will prob pick up as firms shift to Canada/EU.
FIG/NR M&A will increase as Canadians look to bypass tariffs but also take advantage of (potentially) strong CAD$
ECM will (maybe) increase. Firms will look non American exchanges - I think london/HongKong is more suitable, but I'd expect some more volume in TSE IPOs too.
And lastly, he's much more qualified to stand up to trump than Poilievre. As a long term conservative, I'd much rather carney across the table than PP. as would most Canadians (as seen by results).
Unfortunately, Conservatives in canada decided to use the Trump playbook and just attack past leader instead of highlighting their own plan.
You said a whole lot of nothing but speculation - an answer that a first year analyst would say in a banking interview, not surprised. Carney’s plan is Trudeau 2.0 with even more spending. Expect things to get worse. So what if he’s smart when his plan is in commensurate with the previous prime minister.
What do you think will happen?
What analysis could you possibly do other than speculate? Run an LBO or DCF off of historical party decisions? If you're implying your insight is meaningful, share what it is rather than just say "Nah dude you're wrong"
Turns out when you ask a question on WSO, you get answers in the perspective of banking analysts, not political scientists. Who woulda thought??
If you think London is a suitable place to list right now, i have a story to tell you...
Carney is just an extension of Trudeau and Canadians decided to vote for the same thing they got rid of because a leader of a different country said mean things and trolled them a bit. Unfortunately Canada will get what it deserves for now, hopefully in the next government things will get better.
With how many people wanted Trudeau ousted I’m shocked they voted in Carney
Canada is becoming a joke of a country. In polling the 18-35yo demographic overwhelmingly said housing and CoL were the major issues for them, while the 55+ crowd said it was something about defending against Trump.
Young people there (and in a lot of western nations) can’t afford homes, children and have minimal sightline to upward mobility, all while boomers virtue signal against Trump and import infinity Indians and Asians (and Central Americans in the U.S.) because of cheap food and labor. It’s complete demographic suicide and I’ll be surprised if in 20 years we don’t get western parties/leaders that make Trump look soft and downright liberal.
Canada is irreversibly fucked with Carney’s win (it already was after Trudeau though). PP was a terrible candidate though.
Here’s how to fix Canada: 1) stop immigration 2) get rid of zoning laws and build more multifamily housing and high density apartments. Simple as that.
That take really shouldn't be so controversial....
Given Carney was behind the vast majority of economic policy in the latter half of Trudeau's tenure, lets look at how Canada has performed under Liberal power over the last 9 years:
Let's pretend for a second that Canada was a state within the union, Canada would be between West Virginia (second poorest state) and Mississippi (poorest state) for GDP per capita - that's terrible.
Let's instead pretend we are back in 2007, a Canadian dollar was worth $1.11 USD. Today? It is now worth 72 cents. We have fallen in purchasing power by roughly HALF relative to our neighbors down south.
At some point, do we not have to ask ourselves, is this the party Canada needs? Well, it looks like its too late to ask ourselves that given the election is over.
What will be the ramifications? Continued blocking of pipelines that would support our sole industry that could save the Canadian economy (while buying Middle Eastern o&g instead), printing more money to send overseas (Carney already committed to increasing global economic support starting with Palestine and Ukraine), increased costs of living, and decreased GDP per capita growth compared to the 50 most developed countries - but hey, he went to Harvard so it's okay!
What is the proof of him being behind all of the Liberal’s economic policies since his role as an informal advisor? I don’t disagree with the terrible job the Liberals have done, but attributing it to a guy who was not in the cabinet has always confused me. I am not making a partisan point, I am genuinely asking
He supported many of the policies in his book Values/in interviews so I think it's a fair assumption.
The truth is he was one of many people behind those hideous policies, and continues to be one of the many people behind the current set of policies.
In Canada, as in the U.S., boomers won and don’t give a rats ass about the demographic suicide taking place. They look at those stats you cited and say “that was great, my SFH quadrupled in value, my pension is fat, the Indian food is delicious and Orange Man Bad!” They don’t care that their kids can’t afford a home and children within an hour and a half of where they grew up, and have absolute no sense of the bleak picture facing younger demographics.
Can't tell until he picks his cabinet and his actions within the first 6 months. Remember Trudeau also run on a centre-left platform in 2015 before moving to far left during his tenure which led to some of the worst policies Canada has seen. imo a Liberal win might push more young Canadians to pursue careers outside of Canada unless they have real estate rich parents.
I would say most of his policies were simply bad, as opposed to far left. For example, the "no-pipelines-law" (C-69) that prevented Canada from exporting resources from the prairies eastward, making us reliant on importing resources from overseas (and making Western Europe reliant on Russian resources). It almost felt like his goals were globalist in nature in aiming to tank Canada's economy, as opposed to acting on leftist values. Just my two Canadian cents (which is basically one American cent).
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This exactly.
Boomers literally ruined Canada because their cable news programmed mind told them to hate America and trump💀
All age groups voted Conservative apart from 60+ who overwhelming voted Liberal. Exit polls showed 18-29 year old main election priority was the cost of living, whereas it was boomers LEAST priority and their main priority was standing up to trump💀💀💀
Sadly they don't care about the poor deteriorating state of their country at all, they just want a dopamine hit from watching their PM on cable news telling trump to shut up (despite not actually doing anything about him)
The demographic collapse is absolutely insane. Import infinity Indians and Asians, cram them 13 into a 2bdrm apartment, and make sure your own children will never be able to afford a home and children of their own anywhere within 90 minutes of where they grew up.
Any terrible fate one can imagine for Boomers is certainly not cruel enough.
PCs have a better platform for business but I couldn’t see past the racist rhetoric of their supporters. Besides, they like to claim they are pro-merit but based on my experience they are just pro-white. In their version of the world, only whites (men and women) deserve to be at the top of food chain and rest should be subservient slaves there to make up the numbers. As long as they support incompetent women in the name of DEI, no vote for them. Republicans are far better than them and they are pro-merit and pro-men.
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