Modeling Earn-Outs in LBOs

Was reading through this post on modeling earn-outs in a LBO scenario, and I think I understand it, but have 2 quick questions:

I (sponsor) am purchasing a company at 10x EBITDA = $1,000m. I agree to an earnout with the seller's shareholders saying, if EBITDA reaches $150m by Year 3, the seller shareholders receive a $20m earnout.

I don't include the $20m earnout in my S&U (not being paid out at close), but do account for $20m contingent consideration on the L&E side when calculating goodwill to make sure B/S balances.

At the end of Year 1, if I (sponsor) think the likelihood of the company reaching the target decreases, I'd write down the value of the contingent consideration to say $18m (write-down flows through I/S under operating expenses; subtract on CFS as non-cash)

1) In the event the company reaches $150m EBITDA in Year 2, the earnout that needs to be paid is $20m, even though the value of the contingent consideration on my B/S is $18m, right? And this would be financed using either the company's cash flows / revolver drawdown?

2) If the by Year 3 the company doesn't meet $150m EBITDA, I write-down the remaining value of the earn-out?

Thanks a lot guys, really appreciate it!

2 Comments
 

You have it correct. As you revalue the liability you push the deltas through the income statement and then remaining liability (if any) gets removed when it gets paid off in cash.

One small note (wouldn’t suggest for a model test, just an FYI) - GAAP would have you value the liability on an NPV basis based on the company’s cost of capital at close. GAAP may also have you probability weight it. So it wouldn’t be $20M liability at close, something lower.

 

Nobis unde hic perspiciatis quos aut quisquam. Nobis voluptas eum incidunt qui architecto illum iste.

Career Advancement Opportunities

June 2026 Private Equity

  • The Riverside Company 99.6%
  • Blackstone Group 99.3%
  • KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) 98.9%
  • Warburg Pincus 98.5%
  • Bain Capital 98.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

June 2026 Private Equity

  • Blackstone Group 99.6%
  • KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) 99.3%
  • The Riverside Company 98.9%
  • Ardian 98.5%
  • Starwood Capital Group 98.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

June 2026 Private Equity

  • Bain Capital 99.6%
  • The Riverside Company 99.3%
  • Blackstone Group 98.9%
  • Starwood Capital Group 98.5%
  • KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) 98.1%

Total Avg Compensation

June 2026 Private Equity

  • Principal (9) $653
  • Director/MD (24) $547
  • Vice President (98) $365
  • 3rd+ Year Associate (104) $281
  • 2nd Year Associate (235) $272
  • 1st Year Associate (411) $229
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (33) $157
  • 2nd Year Analyst (97) $134
  • 1st Year Analyst (272) $124
  • Intern/Summer Associate (38) $81
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (355) $62
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
kanon's picture
kanon
99.0
3
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
4
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
5
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
98.9
6
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
7
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
8
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
9
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
10
Mimbs's picture
Mimbs
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”