30 year mortgage rates just hit 5.85% after the last reading from a low of 2.8% last summer.
Residential seems screwed. With partial WFH still (e.g. Only 30% of Manhattan is back in office still per WSJ) commercial office real estate seems screwed too. Amazon is indicating that they over built on warehouses so maybe that is screwed, but I can't really tell to be honest.
Meanwhile construction is at a peak since 2006-2007.
How much of a correction / downturn do you think there will be in prices?
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I think you’ll see a healthy 20% or so decline, much in line with the broader markets. Real estate asset prices will never move that quickly, as they trade much more infrequently than public equities (although following the REIT market does lend some insights). You’ll also see a lot of stratification within the asset class. There will be stark differences in location (southeast, AZ, etc. vs California, NYC, etc.), as well as property type. Multifamily will show strength, whereas office is still in a period of reckoning. Industrial got too hot, and now you’re seeing Amazon giving some of it back. In short, hard to see it broadly going up from here, but not necessarily doom and gloom across the board, either.
I don't think doom and gloom either, but pricing will correct a lot quicker this time than in other corrections. They've never raised rates this quickly, and higher rates mean lower values, it's a simple/objective mathmatical equation. Every deal I've toured in the past month has been repriced 10% - 20% and some are still not trading.
A lot of apartment and industrial markets had double digit rent growth last year, if that continues, noi growth can limit the impact of cap rate expansion on prices.
On the MFR development side, the other variable is major construction cost escalation. That has to put downward pressure on land values for deals to pencil out. Add to that the increased cost of construction debt (already happening) and probable exit cap expansion (just starting to happen, I think) and land prices should take a hit. That said, there's still plenty of appetite for deals from deep-pocketed investors right now. Huge rent growth is obviously helping.
I also have a pretty good window into SFR development in my (expensive coastal) region, and foot traffic on the sites for which I have data is down considerably from where it was in the first couple of months of the year, and from where it was in May/June of last year. Hearing the same from local brokers I know. SFR prices have not moved, though.
What are you modeling for construction escalation % these days? I’m in the southeast working on garden and mid rise type stuff. I just started with this shop but my construction guys are talking about bumping us up to the mid to high teens.
Based on GC bids, we've seen about 1% a month over the past year. Within that there's major variation depending on the particular material or trade in question.
Worked with the largest sfr players for 4+ years, BTR partnerships and strategies still don't account for too much of the housing stock growth but it's up significantly YoY, honestly the amount of dry powder, cap rate compression has changed some strategies or even in some cases for larger guys, manage the current book or realize some hpa gains while pivoting strategies to btr. The nature of the business has changed so much in terms of outsourcing management that the deal model is a totally different animal these days
.
And only certain markets, still have enough planned openings of new warehouses this year that they will have more new space than space given up for subletting.
Amazon by itself is mostly irrelevant, but they might a bellwether for logistics as a whole. How many other firms over-expanded the last few years?
This. Given their scale, Amazon probably have the most current info of any e-commerce retailer globally on consumer spending / sentiment. When they start shelving projects, it’s a sign of info to come out in next few months.
I know Wayfair has been working to implement an expansion program across their logistics and warehousing, not sure how far they've taken it over the last few years tho.
The amazon number is a lot larger than what has been reported. They have backed out of a number of large built to suit deals and are planning disposition of a large number of assets. From a reliable source. 30M SF+
Yeah, Amazon is literally still doing new deals. They just overshot in certain markets
No one is saying they weren't.
Take a step back for a second and realize the Bubble just isn't in RE - it's in just about every asset you can think of. Let that sink in. Shit is about to get brutal within the next 12mo.
Think of all the stimulus money (PPP, ERC, Stimulus Checks, Child Tax Credits, etc.) that is no longer there that propped up prices for just about everything. Most importantly, the Fed is getting serious now and we're only in the 2nd inning at best - people can't afford houses at these rates... the investors/flippers are going to have to start unloading SF Residential RE quick and that will greatly increase supply.
To hit on a few more bearish things going for the economy as a whole:
- Cash out Refi's/HELOCs put even more money into the economy at cheaper rates (with the latter being variable and going up). What if these people start to lose their jobs?
- The layoffs have just started - I have a friend who never went to college that is a Mortgage Banker at Quicken... he made over $330K in 2020 and probably more in 2021 -- there are numerous people like this in the Mortgage Industry that made a ton of money that will either 1) get laid off; 2) be lucky to make 60% of their peak earnings in 2020/2021 in 2022. How will Real Estate Agents do? --- these are high paying jobs.
- Those RSUs for the Tech Companies? Vapored. Big source of money in the large metropolitans for down payments, etc. --- curious to see how many Tech startups go under.
- Consumer Sentiment is very important and we just got the lowest reading ever
- Can anyone say, GAS PRICES? The poor/lower middle class are getting raped. This will also hit over-leveraged middle class people. Gas likely will hit $6 nationally, quick.
- Is the COVID era Home Renovation rush over, or at least stalling?
I could go on, feel free to add to this. Needless to say, very bearish.
EDIT: Don't think that since the markets corrected ~20% that this in the end and RE will drop in similar proportion --- it took us over a year to bottom in 2008/2009.
Agree with all of this and one big one is also car price gauging and people leveraging against inflated car values. Eventually, more average people will be upside down on their cars then ever before.
I hate it when people are all doom and gloom based on old information. Everyone already know everything you just wrote. That’s why stocks are down 20%
As an example, this guy has a topic from 1 year ago: “Hidden Lucrative Job: Mortgage Banking”. Yeah man you’re really great at predicting the future
We'll see who's right in the next 6mo I guess.
FWIW, Mortgage Banking is still pretty lucrative, relatively speaking. I'm sure my buddy will still pull $175K+ in a bad year - not bad for no degree in a LCOL area.
Also, wasn't it like 3 days ago when "everyone already knew" we were at "PeAk InFlaTioN"? I don't think the market being down ~20% necessarily means everything I mentioned above (and more) is fully baked in - the compounding effects of each of those bearish things could be much more than the market realizes.
Again, I'd point to it taking ~1.5 years to bottom in the GFC - you think everything was "Fully baked into the market" in September 2008? We were already down ~20% from the October 2007 highs at that point? I'd say not being that we went ~45% lower from that point on the S&P before bottoming.
So, what will happen to the tech industry as a whole?
Are we going to see a tech bust and many tech related roles go out?
Are we going to see a decline in tech demand?
What's the volume of 95% CLTV low fico HELOCs vs crisis? Option ARM? Alt-a? IOs? What's the average ltv of cash out refi vs pre crisis?
I totally agree with all of this. I have never been more bearish in my life. I don't understand any bulls rn. Even all my permabull friends are finally having a come to jesus. If you're bullish rn, please seek help and give me your plugs contact info lol.
I’m bullish on the fact there will be a recession.
Good points. While we're on the topic, let's dig a little deeper into the root causes of the shit-storm we find ourselves in.
We will Stand Fast. We will NOT forget the weaklings who burnt this country, abandoned our allies, opened our borders, and tried to disarm our citizens. We will not forget that the Democratic Party devolved into a post-modern communist soup of moral decrepitude and propaganda.
Do you hear it? I can hear it in the distance... faintly now but growing... Let's... Go... Brandon...
Our currency is not devalued to 0, it is incredibly strong vs other currencies, which is the main item to focus on in currency markets. LOL at the rest of the post tho, cant say you're wrong
The movie Idiocracy is no longer satire.
I tip my hat to you sir, hope enough of us out there agree to turn the tide
Communism? What a joke. I hope the young people that don't think for themselves don't take you too seriously.
Firmly in the "could be turbulent 6-12 months" camp overall. Thinking there's a recovery near the end and the economy starts to adjust to a less stimulated supply of money. As it relates to real estate, it's funny that I'm not quite sure where the best place to be will be in 12 months... that to me is most interesting part of it all.
Mmmm this makes me happy. Now the real estate weasels can finally stfu.
Looks like you guys are going to get hammered on both ends of the demand/supply curve too. Tons of building going on which will likely flood the market with supply, and also demand is going to fall off a cliff with these prices/rates.
There really is karma in the world :)
Apologies you're dealing with weasels. One always begets another.
I mean what you've said might be true for some with a business plan that is exposed to that. Many companies do understand that risk. There's a handful I can name off the top of my head right now who were in growth mode and started to consider how to diversify their business via new long term hold plans or creating a management company. There's already many who have already implemented those strategies and have been operating for 20+ years.
What's your opinion on the market?
Multifamily rent growth usually follows wage growth, among other considerations. Sorry you weren’t at one of the IB shops that saw pay jump significantly and are now taking your frustration out on landlords. Maybe if you spent less time bitching and more time focusing on your job, the rise experienced in rents wouldn’t mean much to you relative to your income. Sucks to suck.
Not near as much of an issue as you think it will be. There is an absolutely insane amount of dry powder right now. Commercial prices are going to fall, but not as much as people expect. Combined with high inflation prices will remain elevated when compared to the cost of capital. A 2% loss beats 8 - 10% losses on the inflation side.
Don't you have a powerpoint deck to change a font on for the 4th time that no one who matters will ever read anyhow?
Piss off
You clearly don't understand anything about the real estate markets. Historically we are still well below average on construction starts, the new supply coming online isn't enough to satisfy current housing demand, let alone the backlog. The only market that has been flooded with supply is NYC luxury condos, most other markets are going to be able to absorb new supply, maybe they'll take a hit on the proforma but it's not the nail in the coffin for any developer who is worth their salt and didn't overlever.
And demand is going to drop sure, but fall off a cliff? Even Class A office space is seeing strong leasing (anything below that has been fucked for a while now, it's not like that suburban B office building hasn't already been struggling). Household savings are at an all time high, so unless this recession is so deep it drastically lifts unemployment most households will be able to weather this. And if demand hasn't dropped off a cliff yet why would it as prices correct?
Weekly housing inventory is building at a rate of change increasing at 10% each month right now if you look at realtor.com's weekly data: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ (i.e. second derivative on a YoY basis) Considering rates went up since I originally posted this, I would expect inventory to continue building until either housing construction slows or rates come back down to increase demand.
Housing starts look slightly above average to me just eyeballing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST I think the difference this time too is that housing starts don't need to be as high when our population isn't growing anywhere near as fast as before 1990.
Nobody knows but some counter points / general thoughts:
- Office generally seems on downtrend, similar to malls a decade ago
- Resi - combination of homeowners with low mortgages not wanting to sell limiting on-the-market inventory, being perpetually underbuilt and a step-up in construction costs may not lead to the fall off in home prices you're suggesting, just given the limited affordable supply
- Multi - I'm not sure how the rent growth is sustainable
- Industrial - on-shoring could lead to even more demand for industrial space. Warehousing continues to remain a small percentage of a user's budget, meaning 5%+ rent increases have a de minimis impact on a company's expenses. Elevated gas prices could also be a positive for last-mile industrial as the shorter the route for the trucks, the less energy expense
- Dry powder - This is one that continues to stump me. There is so much REPE dry powder + NTR $$. Small drops in value should then see a flood of money chasing
Re: dry powder - maybe. What you saw in those first few months of COVID was that even with the amount of dry powder that was in the market, people weren't transacting. Two primary reasons that dry powder might not be able to overcome poor fundamentals: (1) lenders have to be willing to play ball and (2) uncertainty/volatility introduces....well, uncertainty. To that latter point, if we get hit with some ugly headwinds, retail capital will die off almost immediately. If you've talked to anyone in crowdfunding lately, this is already starting to happen. You'll also see many institutional capital allocators start to get gunshy because they are not incentivized to take outsized risks (ie, catching a falling knife). If the general sentiment is things will get worse, most people will sit on the sidelines until they have to put out money. More than anything, sellers aren't going to offload at bad prices until they have to, so transaction volume will crater for awhile before loans start to mature.
The big one though are lenders. What are lenders willing to lend on? They are by nature conservative and they hate volatility. A recession introduces a lot of volatility.
A lot of great points. I’m sure Trepp has the data but I’d be curious to see if there’s a way to predict when the bulk of these maturity defaults may happen. Like you said, the sellers aren’t going to sell at a loss until the mortgage comes due and none of their investors are willing to give them additional capital to meet lender refi requirements.
I think the one thing I’m certain of is transaction volume cratering. No more cap rate compression bailing out bad purchases.
I'm way late to the party on this, but I wanted to add that there was an absolutely crazy liquidity crunch at the very beginning of COVID which also hampered transaction volumes. Sure, dry powder yada yada yada, but the overall impact on the markets as investors rushed out of short term securities in order to fund commitments, or just out of fear, was a large player in the seizing up of credit markets. Which adjusted after a couple months. So I'm not entirely sure I buy the argument that we'll see a massive contraction in real estate activity. Crowdfunding is and always has been a scam, and the industry as a whole isn't as reliant on retail capital as the stock and bond markets.
Multi rent growth isn't sustainable, put some of the recent increases as a 5 year consistent schedule or 10 years. No one would be able to afford rent.
Agree with CRESF that lenders will drive deal flow
I would disagree about all the money that is supposedly on the sidelines. (i) No one wants to catch a falling knife. (ii) 1-year ago people were looking at stabilized rental buildings at 3% / 4%/ 5% cap rates (depending on location), and the US 10-year is at ~ 3.35%...so why take the risk of buying now when you can get comparable yield and by sitting on the sidelines and waiting you might be able to get it at a discount in 6/9/12-months' time
Office is typically volatile, so I am surprised that WFH hasn't increased this dynamic.
Industrial should be solid in urban centres. Geography matters here
Retail I am not a fan of until I become a nightclub baron catering to the rich and famous
Rentals should be solid based on population flows. The math on annual migration into a city vs. annual construction of places to live is pretty simple. Chart that since 2008 and you can eyeball whether rents are high or low
On development, we are getting hammered on the cost to build. Stuff is just more expensive
A lot of these REPE funds have 4 year investment windows. They don't like to go back to their investors and return money and then go to raise more and ask for an even bigger fund. So there's a balance of best absolute return as well as 4 year deployment window
Good point. I really like one of Howard Marks' OakTree memos on MOIC vs. IRR
While I think price contraction will happen it is going to be tempered significantly by the absolutely massive piles of cash that are out there. It is better to buy a property even at a slight loss going in than having your cash assets being eaten away by 10%+ inflation.
Lol we all say that but cash is one of the best performing asset classes this year since the Fed is tightening and everyone is going risk off.
When compared to paper values sure. But real estate has cashflows attached. If you are comparing cash to the public equity markets you would have a point. But if I compare cash to a building that has dropped in value 15% but still generates a 6% cap I don't care what the paper value is.
The US is still at a 6 million unit deficit, the higher PTI or DTI needs to be looked at on an individual market basis. Supply is still tight (let alone affordable supply), shadow inventory is low, credit availability tight. Nothing changes that baseline story that was driving prices up pre-crisis, regardless of low rates. If anything, the expectation is a flattening or maybe slight decrease.
Worked with institutional residential and small balance commercial on different levels of the process. The numbers that get shared are particular cuts of data, its segmented, cut and weighted, so I would suggest looking at how the indexes are calculated. There is variance in markets and demographics, urban, suburban, rural, geography square footage, affordable vs. luxury, time intervals, renovations, etc.
There is not going to be a gigantic influx of new supply (construction has been low for a very long time). Owners now have nowhere too cash out and downsize that makes sense, let alone add on another mortgage at a higher rate. That holistically could keep inventory tight and prices elevated. This isn't to say that certain markets aren't going to be absolutely rocked, there can be some larger corrections (example, luxury apartment and home market in Austin), but a broad national sell-off is unlikely.
Warehouse story has some stories to think of, one being amazon, one being a potential view into de-globalization and therefore increased competition for warehouse space, from storage, to co-pack, to fulfillment. It will be interesting to see if amazon totally sells or does sale-leasebacks.
Office and more traditional CRE is a story I can't really comment on, away from luxury builds will see stress (they were before, anyway).
Housing starts are at a high since 2006 and units under construction are higher than anytime since the 80s (units under construction being higher since there are backed up supply chains). So I don't see this as a supply issue. Demand was increased by the Fed and now that's reversing. Regarding that "six million unit deficit" thrown around, I don't see six million homeless people, so they're clearly living somewhere...
Housing permits and starts currently are at a post-crisis high, but that stock completion doesnt offset the unit deficit, and on some analysis, even make a dent in it. The average age of a US home is 46 years, so I think that makes it pretty clear that a measure vs. 1980 really doesn't carry that much weight, and arguably shows how bad it actually is. It removes the fact that housing builds were seriously depressed for years, and post crisis significantly dropped. That plays a large role into analyzing the housing situation. It also doesn't consider the count of luxury or affordable builds, or, if the stock is being created in areas that have outsized demand. No one's going to buy a home 1.5 hours out of Austin that has no infrastructure around it, for example.
Per your supply chain comment, once you take the average of 7 months it takes to build a home and throw in costs of supply, higher labor costs, increased completion timing (not to take into account seasonality) that you mentioned, all else equal, would probably end up pushing units prices higher to realize margins. The only reprieve right now was a higher inventory of lumber recently.
How is demand increased by the fed, because the fed rate went back to zero? The Fed didn't orchestrate consumer mentality and single handedly cause the migration outflow towards the sun belt and suburbia. They didn't create covid. It's a herd mentality and a change in priorities. But again, there is variation between regions, and not every one is going to move in the same manner, just as they haven't even in the COVID run up.
No offense, is that really your argument on the unit deficit? Not going to really comment on that one if there's no genuine substance lol. Maybe do a little research on demographics and household formation.
Housing deficits are based on how much housing is needed, but not supplied, for a normal amount of households per a given amount of population. Plus the numbers are usually calc'd based on regional demand, so 5,000 surplus units in Alabama isn't going to counter 5,000 units needed in California. Housing is so much more flexible than you are assuming, it's not like if there isn't an apartment available people just live on the street. People live with roommates, they move back in with their parents, they stay in their exurban house instead of closer to the urban core they actually want to live in. These are instances of households not living where they want because of a lack of supply, creating a housing deficit, without creating homelessness.
I am less worried about 2022 than the next 15 years or so. I honestly don’t think millennials and gen z will be able to afford to have enough children to replace the boomers that start to pass. I wouldn’t be shocked if after this wild period of inflation we see deflation due to population decline which will really cause some issues in the residential RE markets.
Got to allow for more immigration if that ends up being the case. Don't want to end up being Japan.
China also has a population growth problem, arguably worse than the US.
Waaaaay worse than the US. China's population is estimated to be around 700M by the end of this century.
Over the next 15 years those children are on the housing market yet. You are talking about the children of Generation X. So extend the 15 years to 30-40 years and longer.
No. Stop doomposting.
I think a lot of panic and dooms day scenario comes from ppl assessing and buying non cash flowing (think 3 caps a year ago) assets... I was always frustrated that maybe my IC didnt get it, and didnt 'move with the market' but I'm kind of grateful for what I was learning. I've never been able to do 15 deals in a year like a lot of my peers bc our IC would shoot 99% of deals down, but now I'm seeing why.
End of the day, it is asset backed finance. It absolutely needs cash flow, and as long as the cash flow is strong and maintains a positive delta to your debt, it stays valuable.
Already seeing operators come to us with deals we saw months or a few years ago that I had to pass on where the guys who won it failed at their BP bc of debt and a complete miss on valuation on a price per pound basis.
Also, i cant see the fed allowing us to spiral into a deep recession like in the 70's. Then again, I didnt think they'd go as hard as they have so far. However, at this point, they are destroying boomer's retirements, and there is 0 chacne a middle class person can get a mortgage. At a certain point, they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
Also, no matter if its his fault or not; 90% of the US doesnt understand economics or complicated policy, so i dont think Biden can survive this. Very easy to make it seem like its 100% his fault , even if its not necesarily 100% ...
Interesting thread on the Housing Bubble from Gordon Johnson:
Gordon Johnson on Twitter: "1/15 Is the US housing bubble 2.0 about to "pop"? Well, first, we'll note that applications for home purchases are among the best leading indicators for the real estate market - i.e., potential buyers try to get pre-approved for a mortgage, then lock in a rate, and then start... https://t.co/yvcmqMCYrR" / Twitter
Commenting as somebody who is a MF lender during the day and an MF investor at night.
Ive been speaking to a bunch of ppl who are in their 50s/60s at work - some of the best yet simplest insights are below:
1) 07/08 GFC was a literal financial crisis - i dont think anyone needs a history lesson as to what happened but the market simply 'STOPPED' - from my lens that means nobody was making loans since, well, you know why. My company, along with others, are still making loans but have become much more selective (better markets, higher DYs, etc). Perhaps things get worse over time (and i think they will) but its really tough to see shops completely stopping doing deals for an extended period of time other than for firm-specific issues (running out of capital, back-leverage providers arent working with you anymore).
2) At least for Multi - we know that there is a 'bottom'...what does this mean? Well the pullback right now in MF is mostly (but not exclusively) due to higher rates (both index/SOFR + spreads). Plug the higher spread + steep SOFR curve into your model (add 25-50 bps to your curve to account for further steepening), then back into the purchase price that works for the IRR/EM you are targeting. Chances are you will find the price is 15-35% lower...thats the 'bottom' right now
3) Finally, we all know this, but CRE/MF and even SFR are all 'submarket specific' - meaning that a fact pattern happening in one part of the country or a specific city wont apply to another. In the market i personally invest in, we've literally seen values double ever 9-12 months for MF deals 'as-is', meaning you could barely do any renos and sell for double the price - this didnt happen in NYC or major markets. Not expecting every market to behave the same way during a slowdown.
Just to add my $0.02. Ive only been in the industry for about 15 years and was in college during the GFC and talking to folks who have seen 3-5 cycles (not just GFC) is always very helpful.
Good point tbh not sure theres going to be a correction until a few years
?? arguably already has been... no?
As M1 decreases, so will all asset prices.
How do you correlated the Fed's balance sheet with the M1 money supply?
It would make more sense to post a graph of the M1 and m2 money supply. Also the S&P 500 ETF Trust is a good representative of asset prices in general?
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