16 Comments
 

copper

"Seeing this house and your fine sword and hearing how you're importing and exporting chinamen, let me guess, you must be fucking rich." Kenny Powdersss
 

Hmmm. I normally like energy, but it's gotten too popular for this contrarian.

I like railroads right now. They are relatively cheap, boring, and have a wide economic moat. The Eastern railroads might be a good play on an industrial recovery in the Midwest, something that I think is going to have to happen if the Asian consumer starts spending again. The US car industry is making higher quality cars relative to the competition than it's made in the past 50 years, and somebody will have to get those cars from Detroit to the Port of Newark if we're going to ship them to Europe and the (growing) Near East.

Call me crazy, but I think the picture for manufacturing in this country is the brightest it's been in 50 years. If for nothing else, the fact that it truly can't get any worse than things got in 2008.

 

There are a lot of oil royalty trusts out there. They can make a great investment- particularly in an IRA if they don't generate UBTI. Most of them are legit and have gotten pretty impressive returns over the past 10 years unlike ETFs that hold energy futures (and have to effectively pay storage costs). Whether they'll have another 10 years of nice returns is much more debatable.

 

RJA = Jim Rogers ETN, it tracks a basket of agricultural commodities.

or....

Any other Rogers ETN. He basically has an ETN for every commodity complex. Its a great play if your capital can not sustain trading futures.

Please don't make me talk to you like an asshole...
 

Here's my portfolio (have different amounts in different stocks, but I think these are going up):

ALTAIR NANOTECHNOLOGIES INC NEW BANK OF AMERICA CORP CENTURYLINK INC CHINA FUND INC CITIGROUP INC EAST WEST BANCORP INC FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC CL A REP CL A LTD LIABILITY CO INT HUMAN GENOME SCIENCES ITT CORP INTEL CORP ISHARES MSCI TURKEY INDEX FUND ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN INDEX FUND ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA INDEX FUND ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA INDEX FUND ISHARES RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE INDEX FUND ISHARES SILVER TRUST ISHARES MSCI INDONESIA INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND KKR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LLC KSW INC LENNAR CORP MARKET VECTORS INDIA SMALL-CAP INDEX ETF MARKET VECTORS SHORT MUNICIPAL INDEX ETF NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF SOUTHWEST AIRLINES COMPANY SPRINT NEXTEL CORP SERIES 1 ELEMENTS ROGERS INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY ETN TARGET CORP THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC

 
Best Response

I don't like metals any longer, but if you're going to play around in the space, I would long the miners. And I would focus on miners that operate in countries where you understand the political risk, and on companies that mine metals that do not trade on futures exchanges.

I do like natural gas, though. I generally like energy, and anything that produces it. And I like the commodity currencies. I like AUD, NZD and CAD. To some extent, I still ike BRL, but if you're looking for EM exposure, I think there is better value in Turkey and Russia.

Russia has a lot of political problems at the moment, so the risks there are high. Still, I like the risk-reward there.

And I like soft ag. I always like soft agricultural producers. The world always needs to eat. And if you're long the underlying, you're ostensibly long volatility. Almost any abnormal weather activity works in your favor, so you get to own a small measure of free (or cheap) vol.

I like financials, utilities, and airlines. I suspect there will be a roll up of the latter two in the near(ish) future, and like the idea of grabbing a bit of upside potential from some speculative longs in select names (looking for some M&A activity to juice my returns).

I also like vice. As people in the developing world make more money, you can be sure they'll spend more on porn, liquor, and cigarettes.

And finally, I like blow jobs, so if you use any of these ideas, well...I'm just sayin'

 

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