North Korea
I have my own opinions on the matter, but I've heard two sides of the coin and am curious what everyone thinks. I'm also very interested to hear some international perspectives on the situation.
General consensus:
Most people I've spoken to agree that North Korea has been a problem passed along from administration to administration, with few past presidents willing to take responsibility for the Hermit Nation. Much of the past administrations levied sanctions without massive impact to their missile development program, and pushed further action until the conflict reaches a significant inflection point later down the road.
Where opinions start to differ is in the impact of our presidents current actions:
I've heard some who think Trump is being diligent by taking action against Kim Jung Fool who is actively developing inter-continental missiles, posing a current threat to our allies abroad (and a potential future threat to the USA directly).
I've also heard some who think Trump is being callous in taking action against Kim Jung Fool who may be pushed to attack our current allies abroad, causing undue damage to nations which weren't necessarily in danger prior to the pressure the US initiated.
Bonus Opinion: How would the "arm chair presidents" on WSO handle the situation?
North Korea is not a threat and the US is saber rattling against a tiny country.
Do you not understand the concept of nuclear weapons? Clearly you are not a student of history.
Do you understand Nuclear Weapons at all? North Korea does not have the delivery system to hit any US continental holding.
They are not a threat.
North Korea cares about security and the continuation of their hermit regime. KJU has shown an interest in westernizing and if you look at Pyongyang you can see his influence. Yet the US sanctions the shit out of them and bullies China to cripple the country.
1) The US should agree to remove forces from the Korean Peninsula if China can get NK to fully disarm their nuclear program.
2) If these conditions are met, the US should resume limited dipolomatic relations with the country and work with China to introduce economic stimulus that will benefit the poor people of that country.
3) We should also use our withdrawal from Korea as a peace offering and seek a similar quid pro quo from China.
We are not the worlds police. China is not going to be firm with them because they do not want US troops on their border. Korea is a rich nation and can protect themselves.
I would love to see the following situation that you described play out, but I think China disarming NK's nuclear program is a big "IF." Also, given Kim Jung Un's past report card, I have to imagine that any economic stimulus going into the country (or any country run by a dictator) would be used for militarization efforts and not the good of his people.
I think you're spot on with last part of your assessment. Despite China being nervous of the "powder keg" hermit nation, China approves of having them on their boarder as a buffer to western powers, given China's communist agenda and their dislike of having US troops on the peninsula.
Clearly the best case scenario. But perhaps not realistic as the regime would probably be overthrown if the country was ever opened up. The worst case scenario is any military action. Not only is Kim Jung Fool (hilarious btw) armed and dangerous, a dictator maniac who puts anyone who opposes him in prison camps, but the people are so fanatical and brainwashed we would have to probably kill them all. Even if they surrendered easily the humanitarian crisis would be huge.
The outlook is all pretty grim. A more realistic best case scenario would be decisive military action that does not result in a military response from NK as the regime would like to stay in power.
And finally... Did everyone just forget that this is the same Regime that helped the Syrians build an enrichment plant for producing nuclear weapons or is our media just that fucking stupid and our education system just that useless?
You've been swallowing garbage US imperialist propaganda.
One of my closest friends is a pretty high ranked CIA analyst who called Trump's victory and Brexit. He told me last night that there are no easy answers on North Korea, and anyone who thinks so is highly misguided. He said the best analysts have no idea how to assess Kim's personality or how he might behave in the future. My buddy, who has an opinion on everything, said there are no good solutions to North Korea.
BTW, China is not disarming North Korea of its nuclear arsenal. You're mistaken if you think China and North Korea are allies. At best they are frienemies, and frienemies don't have the clout to persuade you to disarm.
Exit ops from North Korea are pretty weak in my opinion. I'd decline the offer and keep recruiting.
I don't understand how North Korea still exists. I know it's homies with China, but is that all keeping us out? If we're scared they'll launch nukes if we invade, and they are as inept as we are led to believe, couldn't a couple teams of spec ops dudes just wipe out their entire leadership in like a fortnight? We're all 'rah rah we're the good guys slavery and the holocaust were tragedies' but we're allowing a tragedy to occur currently.
Pretty sure it's a combination of them shelling the fk outta South Korea if we invade/ China would be pissed/ as with Iraq and the like what happens after we put Kim in his grave.
North Korea has the capacity to obliterate Seoul, South Korea in 24 hours with conventional, Soviet-era artillery.
OK good points, thanks dudes
Anyone ever wonder what that college student from Virginia currently in jail over there is up to these days?
Welp, now we know.
Yes, very sad, I've been following his story pretty closely. Dumb decision to go there but he didn't deserve the outcome.
Trump is actually a great person to handle this issue IMO. As South Korean, I respect how he is handing the whole process.
What I like about Trump is that he "gets" it. Trump is a serious nationalist. Well North Korea is also an ultra-nationalist. They have turned into ultra-nationalist a long long time ago. They are no longer a pure socialist country. The two have a very similar way of viewing the world and that is why Trump will understand North Korea way way better and without prejudice than any Democrat presidents. I am hearing from Trump such as "Kim Jung Uhn is clearly a smart cookie" or something like "He is a mad man or a genius" and I like what I am hearing. North Korea is not crazy as people from other countries think. They are smart and strategic. I finally feel like there is a US president who understands North Korea without prejudice.
Also, I think Trump acting like a bad and crazy guy works well dealing with North Korea. When dealing with North Korea, you need someone who can talk to North Korea but more importantly who can get their hand dirty and use dirty tricks when necessary. Trump's choice of actions are not limited by any "political correctness" because no body have any high expectation from here.
Korea situation is also extremely complicated where interest of Japan, China, Russia, USA, and South Korea are delicately intertwined. There has been countless "multi-party talks" before. They are never successful. What we desperately need is a "negotiation genius" who can bring to the negotiation table an offer North Korea and five involved countries can all agree on. As much as criticism surrounding Trump, what we all agree on Trump is that he is a "negotiation genius"
If there is anyone in this world who can pull this worlds' most difficult multi-party negotiation, it's Trump.
Guys an update from Trump- "If it would be appropriate for me to meet with Kim, I would, absolutely. I would be honored to do it"
This is probably the most amicable gesture American president have shown in a very very long time.
I am following very closely how this unfolds.
Live or die, it's important that we never forget that @Attack_Chihuaha" actually said this
I didn't agree with that statement until I saw it pasted on two threads by a fratlord. The key word is somewhat. Not that I wish I got laid less, but I certainly wish I spent less time chasing ass in college. Pretty reasonable thing to say.
Lowkey, Kim Jong-un is Frat AF. Dude just inherited status from his rich dad and chills in Pyongyang copping blowjobs and shooting off missiles all day. 8/10, would chill.
He did not just inherited... His price was.... ah.... his step brothers life, his aunt and his uncle.
That's fucking dope, yo.
And his actual brother's banishment from the country.
just aspirated some water laughing at this, thank you.
North Korea tested an ICBM on July 4th...and the US saber rattling has started up again.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Pentagon's "war room" that has probably 100 or more contingency plans for North Korea. I'm right 99.99% of the time, but I honestly have no idea what to do with North Korea and I haven't heard a single decent idea from anyone anywhere, and I follow this pretty closely. It feels like a chess game where the opponent (NK) is down to its King and a pawn and you still have half your pieces left but you don't seem to have a move that checkmates the opponent.
I'm not worried in the least bit by DPRK possessing a nuclear weapon. It seems defensive as the US has troops permanently deployed in Japan and South Korea. The US sees a chance to pick a fight with the Chinese with DPRK as the battle ground. Nuclear proliferation post WWII has regulated large powers to using proxy wars to antagonize adversaries in regions all over the world(Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan in the 80s) and even today (Syria being the most obvious, but smaller conflicts like the Philippine communist insurgency) DPRK is just another chapter of the same book.
The best option on the table is one that no one has discussed: a coordinated mass-evacuation of Seoul and neighboring urban metropolis's. Then a surgical, tactical precision strike on North Korean leadership and nuclear silos.
Pros: -Minimizes civilian loss of life -Cripples North Korea's weapons & weapons development / removes global nuclear threat -First strike ensures cards are in US's hands, and ability for contingency planning -Regime change -Removes / reduces potential black market nuclear proliferation & ability for rogue state / entity to acquire materials
Cons: -Risks "stray", un-destroyed nuke being launched (unlikely?) -Do not truly know the extent to which NK has developed nuclear weapons, and it's second strike capability -Boots on the ground ala "shock and awe" still required and significant military casualties inevitable -Consent for first strike from China, Japan and Korea highly challenging -Covert planning of evacuation and coordinating evacuation logistically challenging -Risks preemptive strike by NK upon evacuation -Unpredictability of outcomes / destabilizes region / humanitarian aftermath -Sets precedent for potential two-party nuclear conflict
bump: shit seems to be hitting the fan with Japan eminently pissed that the latest ICBM landed just off their mainland. U.S. General Terrence J. O'Shaughnessy says that the U.S. is prepared: "If called upon, we are ready to respond with rapid, lethal, and overwhelming force at a time and place of our choosing." Wonder what fat boy's response will be.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN1AF02K
I'm glad I'm not in the military. Jungle combat is pretty nasty shit. They won't want to use nukes and you're not defeating NK without boots on the ground. They have one of the largest armies on Earth. The casualties would be enormous.
I don't foresee President Trump tolerating this stuff for very long. Frankly, it's been tolerated for too long as it is. They should have toppled that regime decades ago. Now they're so dangerous that there's basically a risk of nuclear war.
Whilst everything that the current North Korean government stands for is evil, if you read the history of Koreas you will find that the North is the one who primarily had the good intentions.
Until rhee seung man killed the peacemaker kim koo out of the fear he will lose his power over south korea, that is.
North Korea Thread (Originally Posted: 03/07/2013)
I thought it was time to get some input from my fellow monkeys, as geopolitical analysis is a large part of finance.
Usually when North Korea starts on with its crazy nonsense I roll my eyes. The usual saber-rattling for more aid routine. However, this time I wonder if there is more to it. To what extent? I have no idea.
First, they threaten a preemptive nuclear strike on the US...and now, as a few hours ago, they have torn up the non-aggression pact with the south.
Any fellow armchair generals out there?
They're just ronrey, so very ronrey
Well, considering the fact that it would take an ICBM to deliver a nuclear warhead from N. Korea to the US (in a manner we wouldn't be able to stop beforehand), I'd say there's a lot of posturing going into N. Korea's statement. Remember the last time that N. Korea tried to launch a rocket?
Any thoughts on how military action would affect the markets?
i love how they score basketball... 4 points for a 3pointer swish, -1 for a missed free throw!
http://deadspin.com/5988085/north-korea-invented-its-own-totally-differ…
Obviously, no one thinks North Korea can hurl a missile at LA.
What I find concerning: what if NK crosses the line with the West, which they think might be much further away than it actually is. What if a small-scale accident just sets the whole thing off and starts a full exchange? From what I'm reading these new sanctions are no joke...stranger things have happened.
Saber rattling, they don't have the capability. This is the best you're going to get if you're waiting to hear the words "Let's make a deal". Seriously, the last round of sanctions are no joke, NK is literally getting choked out.
WWDRD?
(What Would Dennis Rodman Do?)
Nope, they can't shoot anything that far out, NKs just bluffing like they always do. Though I can't say that it wouldn't affect the asian markets.
My Korean buddies say this always occurs between NoKo and SoKo - in reality nothing major ever happens and the tension is just constant.
Maybe with the new regime things will change? No one can say for sure :(
http://www.youtube.com/embed/yGzcxG2gBIE
Not much of an armchair general per se, but have done work inside NK in the past. Hesitant to get into all the details on a public forum, but did mainly humanitarian work there. However, we were granted a little more access than the average visitor.
To put things in perspective, N Koreans absolutely detest every single thing about Americans. Take a walk through the elementary and jr high schools you will see graphic murals painted down the hallway of clearly distinguished American soldiers torturing, raping, and killing N Korean women and children. At many street corners, high rises, monuments, and murals you will see militaristic terminology serving as reminders that Americans are the enemy and they must annihilate them at every cost. I couldn't even wear jeans because they view it as a symbol of western imperialism. I don't find all this hype about nuclear weapons very intimidating as I personally don't believe they are capable of producing an ICBM, yet. What I do find as more a threat is their continued alliance with China in building and developing certain cities at key geographical locations along the coast and border of N Korea and China. Cannot remember the exact names of the Korean-named cities, but the city of Tumen right at the border of China is a developing tourist attraction. Allegedly, it's part of a long-term plan for China to gain control of the Sea of Japan. China was developing a railroad that stretches from these strategic N Korean cities into the resource heavy Mongolia. Once China gains control of the Sea of Japan western forces are useless in aiding S Korea or Japan. China gets an upper hand in their naval line of defense behind Japan's islands and can cut aid and supplies while supplying their militaries with the constructed railroad. When will this scenario play out if it plays out, I do not know. But if China is ready and all hell breaks loose, looks like it will get pretty ugly.
All the N Korean women are mandated to be trained once a month to specialize in varying military support roles. One of the women who guided my group remained confident she could shoot down any aircraft if needed as anti-aircraft missiles were her specialty. I wouldn't be surprised if they strapped their young ones with ak-47s and rpg launch tubes. But this is a country where people die of starvation and cold weather all the time. The average N Korean male height is no greater than 5' 5" at best due to nutritional deficiencies. Electricity cuts out at 10pm every night. Only the elite gov't members have cars and proper food to eat. They did not have cell towers until just a couple months ago after being banned early 2000s. My theory on that is because of a cellphone bomb that was meant to kill Kim Jong Il when his train passed through a tunnel. It's an unpublicized event and rarely anybody knows of the story, but the case was that an explosion happened near a tunnel a couple hours before Kim Jong Il's train was supposed to pass through. Why 2 hours? Perhaps a failed calculation of time difference. North Korea allowed cellphone service at that time, and shortly after that "mysterious explosion" cellphone service was banned. Did a quick Google search and found the story on wikipedia. The wiki article states 3 hours after Kim's train passed, but I recall being told by the government guides/locals it was before the train passed through. Ah who knows. Can't post links due to new user status, but wikipedia "Ryongchon Disaster" for story..
Here's your link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryongchon_disaster
Nice write-up, +1.
they've just put a ****ing satellite in space. They can hit ANYWHERE on the planet. The US is a big place. that thing could come down anywhere. It'd be doing 400 mph+ just with freefall, and having to cover 90 miles, you'd have 10 minutes to see it, track it and intercept it and best of all you couldnt retaliate, because your nucelear fallout would hit China and as soon as a button got pressed, Seoul would evaporate.
Just watched Red Dawn. I know the movie was originally constructed as an invasion by China and I believe after the fact (after the movie was made) it was changed to North Korea for political reasons. Anyway, even though I knew the movie was made about China, just the idea that North Korea could mount an invasion is just, I don't know, too absurd to fathom and made the movie difficult to digest.
North Korea is one of the poorest nations on Earth. It's a 3rd world country with a few satellites in space. It has no ability to mount an offensive attack, and if it tried the United States has 10,000 nuclear weapons. The U.S. Air Force and Navy absolutely dominate the skies and seas. This isn't 1950 where the U.S. would have to send in 200,000 troops--we could annihilate the entire North Korean military machinery in a week. I'm not saying this to beat my chest, just to point out that what I'm saying the North Korean military leaders are just as aware of. There's absolutely no way China would consider North Korea a hill worth dying on--China has a decent military, but the U.S. with NATO as its wingman is an overwhelming force plus the EU and the U.S. are China's vital economic partners. There's no way China would intervene to protect North Korea unless the People's Republic is interested in economic collapse and political collapse. Hence, like always, North Korea is issuing idle threats that worry no one.
The US is too broke for another war. I hope this is just another publicity stint.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/DJN9Wkw7Swo
If you haven't seen these documentaries about North Korea, you should definitely check them out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxLBywKrTf4
Regards
I am so interested in North Korea. It is wild -- everything about it.
Did they actually scrap the armistice? Are they going to attack or is it more BS.
I swear, this is the stage for WW3. NK attacks SK, Japan, or the US. One of the latter declare war against NK. The remaining 2, as well as the Allie countries join.
The question is, does China back NK? If so, WW3. If not, a really bloody war but WW3 avoided.
Another interesting question is will Russia back NK, stay neutral, or perhaps even join the US?
Very interesting stuff. I've watched everything on youtube, from the prison camps, to the tours, to the propaganda, to the smuggled videos of daily life, to the starvation issues, etc.
They did scrap the armistice, and they just disconnected the hotline between Seoul and Pyongyang. The disconnection is what worries me the most.
I think that in this situation there is about a 90% chance that a conflict will emerge. Technically, the Korean War is out of intermission with the armistice scrapped. Both Best Korea and South Korea have brand new leaders, and neither of them want to be seen as the one who backed down and gave in to the pressure.
China has stated a few times that it's getting pissed at Best Korea, so I think in this situation China would be with SK and the US, but only if NK instigates any firing. China is the worlds largest producer and the US is the biggest consumer, I don't think we have anything to fear from China unless we directly attack them.
If you want a great analysis on what a conventional Korean exchange would actually look like:
http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-betwee…
To address your comment about crossing the 46? 45? parallel and starting a minor "incident"; I'm not actually too worried about NK, but the fact that China and Russia seem to side with NK on a lot of matters concerns me. Not that China or Russia are so irrational as to completely side with NK, but the fact that they even go so far as to mediate for them is worrisome.
I am normally quite a pacifist, but this country's government just has to go. Maybe not a viable threat, but they just annoy the hell out of me. Such a group of brainwashed imbeciles, don't know how anyone could back them (with the exception of Dennis Rodman, who is a freak.)
For what it's worth, I don't think China or Russia backs NK because they see eye-to-eye on political philosophies, etc...they mainly due it to keep their own hands clean. That is to say, they use NK as a junk yard dog of sorts, to help protect their own interests without looking too crazy.
It's also worth remembering that any sort of real conflict involving NK would be really bad news for China because the last thing they want is for hundreds of thousands or possibly millions of displaced, uneducated, indoctrinated, poor, unskilled and malnourished Koreans pouring over the border.
Regards
I understand that they wouldn't back NK outright. I just see it as (hypothetically), if NK did something that warranted a regime "change" facilitated by US or any other Western countries, that China and Russia would do all within their power to prevent the displacement of the current NK government and system. Maybe not join NK in arms or whatever, but just make it problematic.
This being all hypothetical, as I doubt NK has what it takes to do much, on top of the fact that Russia and China would likely try and deter them do to the backlash they'd receive from Western countries.
Kim Jong Un is a brilliant artist creating a real life Space Jam, casting Rodman as Jordan and the Koreas as opposing teams.
China's only REAL interest in North Korea is the stability of the region--when North Koreans escape, they often end up in China. China doesn't want millions of poorly educated, low-skilled North Korean immigrants flooding into its country.
At this point, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) doesn't even recognize itself as communist but as a completely different ideology altogether, so the Chinese Communist Party doesn't even have an ideological ally in North Korea. Point is, there's just no way China would back the DPRK except some form of verbal condemnation.
I think China only cares about maritime control accessible through NK's alliance. N Koreans defect to Vietnam as China will catch defectors and send them back to the NK govt where they will be severely punished. They defect to Vietnam by foot and then get into S Korea. The only time a NK national would cross into China is for reasons tied to human trafficking or smuggling items. NK is apparently a large producer of cocaine.
Not everybody defects due to hunger or political corruption though. One prominent NK pianist stated he did not defect because he was hungry or oppressed, but because he wanted freedom to play any genre of music as he pleased. Rock and Jazz is looked upon with disgust as an American byproduct. Their definition of rock is an overarching term to include everything outside of classical.
They'd have to build or purchase:
1) A sub capable of launching a SLBM
2) A SLBM
You'd need both as a package; you can't take a land based ICBM and modify it for a sub launch.
Even if they somehow got their hands on a antiquated Russian ballistic missile submarine, trained them and stocked the sub with SLBMs (highly unlikely, that would increase tensions to the nth degree and North Korea isn't worth it) they'd have to escape detection, which is a near impossibility as the old Russian subs are noisier than hell and they'd only have one point of departure due to the requisite submarine pen.
Their missile technology remains unreliable and dated. While they did successfully make an orbital launch, it remains to be seen whether they have the accuracy on such a missile in order to render it an effective ICBM. Further, their missiles use liquid fuel for propulsion, making the fueling a rather long and laborious process... and a dead giveaway to any spy satellite as to any hostile intent.
This seems legit, too lazy to verify.
I had hoped Kim Jong Un would be a more moderate leader than his father. These recent actions are disappointing, especially given his (brief) Western education. Nevertheless, North Korea will likely remain a rational actor.
Why would they possibly attack S. Korea / Japan / the US? They have exactly one shot. The moment they attack, N. Korea is a crater. And they lack the capacity to truly incapacitate their target - the retaliation from their target (and allies) would be overwhelming.
N. Korea is a dictatorship, and dictators have one goal: to stay in power. The aggressive posturing is a distraction. If you believe a foreign power is about to invade, you are not going to question the status quo domestically. Like the Soviets demonized the West, so must N. Korea.
If anyone's interested in a personal testimony.
http://www.ted.com/talks/hyeonseo_lee_my_escape_from_north_korea.html
The North Korea Question (Originally Posted: 03/16/2012)
I'm no geopolitical expert, but seems like there might be a reasonable solution here. China's desire to have NK as a buffer made sense back in the day but now the SK threat is minimal and they are getting tired of paying NK's bills. So the US makes a pact with China that they will shock and awe Pyongyang and wipe out all military installations. Then they hand it to the Chinese on the silver platter, and they get to hold on to it for fifty years. After that it gets reunited with SK. Everybody wins (most of all the NK citizens).
Shock and awe Pyongyang and wipe out all military installations? We barely know who their leader is anymore, and I highly doubt we have the intel to build a pre-emptive strike that guarantees minimal South Korean casualties. NK does, after all, have the ability to attack Seoul from afar, which would cause lots of problems.
We'd never hand North Korea over to China -- the left in this country, rightfully so, would go nuts because of China's numerous human rights violations. Understandably, China is the lesser of two evils, but our country is led by folks who are self-interested and like to be elected to office numerous times.
Reunification would cost a literal fortune for South Korea because feeding 24M starving people is tough.
Have you not learned anything from Bush's invasion in Iraq? There's no opposing party in DPRK if that little fat ass was killed, so if we did go in and execute a coup the US would be stuck there governing a bankrupt and impoverished nation, much like we did for Iraq, except at least that economy had oil reserves.
The problem with NK is that no one wants it. Seoul doens't want to deal with the North and its economy is thriving, have you looked at their trending GDP lately, it's growing at a pace faster than China's. Why would they want to take on DPRK? China doesn't want DPRK either because of the issues outline above, namely no functioning economy, highly uneducated populace, and extreme poverty (they're called the stunted generation).
DPRK exists today because no one wants it, it's as simple as that. If we could've found a successor, a coup would be simple to do and install a new leadership, but absent the latter, DPRK and that little fat ass will continue to rule.
You really think it's a good idea to ask a rising world power for military favors? That gives them a license to do whatever they want from here on out.
Obviously you are no geopolitical expert. Nice try though.
North Korea? (Originally Posted: 04/04/2013)
What is the probability there will be a War in this upcoming week?
CNN has timeline with easy to read pictures http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/04/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt…
I am relatively young and never remember them acting this aggressive. Any one one in SK scared? Any strategy other than short SKWon? Maybe Yen since that was the safe heaven with the events of Cyprus relative to the Euro?
halp!
I have to say, I'm starting to get worried that this guy may be just stupid enough to cause a major incident. At this point judgement is everything ( ie how do both sides save face while winding down tensions?), and I'm not sure his is sound.
very small probability. think about it. all he wants to do is to demonstrate strength. he wants his people to acknowledge him as being someone like his father who can stand tall for his country. There just would be no benefit for him in fighting a war because his country would go down. then there would be now one who even could acknowledge his power. so, the benefit of just verbal provocation is unlimited (considering his legacy in the country), the benefit of acutally being serious is non-existent. i actually think he is not as stupid and insane as he appears to be according to media coverage.
Fun.
http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/04/north-korea-moves-missile-coa…
For those of you keeping score:
NK has nuclear weapons, has long-range missiles, and has shown extreme willingness to nuke US.
Iran may be capable of making nuclear weapons in several years, doesn't have long-range missiles, and insists its nuclear program is peaceful.
Let's ignore NK and prepare for war with Iran!
Except that NK doesn't have long-range missiles that can strike further than western Alaska or the far north of Canada at best, and any "willingness to nuke US" would be a seriously stupid undertaking on their part.
The fact is that both regimes are a bad thing, but destabilizing/sanctioning one is much more difficult than the other.
And on the possibility of war: I think it's close to nil. People from the DPRK military try to defect all the time, and their own citizens are often aware, to what extent they can be, of the shit country they live in. You can count on 10 fingers the number of people that willingly moved to the DPRK in the last few years.
Not to mention their paper military. Nukes don't mean anything when A) you can't reach the enemy and B) you can be obliterated in less than a day. To be honest, there is no doubt in my mind that in the case of full-out war, Pyongyang would be incinerated within days of a conflict beginning.
Japan and South Korea probably have the biggest issues to worry about with the DPRK. But I seriously doubt that Kim is that stupid. I'm pretty sure he knows he's just enjoying the spoils of his family's political position, and preserving his lifestyle as much he can. Quite a disgusting thing for any human to be capable of.
There's a lot holding North Korea back in the form of if they attack the US or South Korea then China will have to abandon them, in which case North Korea is done. Coupled with the fact that they're missles have a good chance of not even hitting their target, AND if they did nuke the US or even South Korea I don't think we'd have a choice but to respond in kind. Maybe not nuke the whole country but targeted strikes. That being said, the kid is crazy let's be honest, so they're is still a chance. Hopefully if he gets hammered one night and decides to launch a strike when he has drunk muscles his generals will get fed up and just peform a coup.
95% chance it's sabre rattling to serve the purpose of consolidating power in the name of 'external threats'. I think they understand that the South on its own would pummel them into submission in a couple of days. With our support, every vital system will be taken offline within hours. Also, China isn't going to support them much, like they did in the 50's, their relationship with us is a whole lot more important.
Much more likely, but also an ass raping if we go to war. It's hard for me to think they'll do it given they had front row seats to the last few ass whoopings we doled out. If any of these countries actually tries to use a nuke, I'm pretty sure we won't be "spreading democracy" this time around, we'll just go in and kill everyone.Look Kim Jong Un is just an old school hard liner trying to act tough and shake his fist at the West. It was the same situation with the presidents of the old Soviet Union back in the Cold War and particularly the 60s and 70s (think Khrushchev and Brezhnev). Kim Jong Un knows how stupid it would be to launch a nuclear strike on the U.S. Also, in reality there is a very strong probability that North Korea lacks the capability to launch an accurate strike on the U.S. To begin with, it is INCREDIBLY difficult to build a viable ICBM. It is even harder to shrink a usable nuclear warhead onto the end of it and then develop the systems required to actually guide it across the globe and hit a target as small as a city. Also, it's believed that the longest range missile North Korea has is limited to a range of between 6000 and 7000 kilometers (3700 to 4350 miles). So assuming that North Korea could even put a usable warhead onto that missile and assuming they could hit anything other than where the warhead happens to land the only U.S. targets they could hit would be the military instillation at Guam, South Korea, a few of the Hawaiian Islands, and about the western half of Alaska. Again, in reality I highly doubt Kim Jong Un is stupid enough, also he cares too much about himself, to launch a strike on the U.S. or our allies in the very near future. You never know about the future though so perhaps we could come into conflict with them later on but for now my interpretation of the situation and the rational data is that we are unlikely to face at least nuclear conflict.
We have a NK thread with a lot of good info too.
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/north-korea-thread
SK has gone through worse before. NK at this point does not even have the capacity to carry out an all-out war in terms of food and resources. NK in the 70/80s were a far bigger threat than it is now.
North Korea and Our Pacific Fleet (Originally Posted: 04/11/2017)
Where does everyone stand on this. What are the odds the North Korea will test another Nuclear Bomb on the precipice of the anniversary of the regime. We clearly can't have them with a functioning bomb, they are a rogue state. Should the U.S. intervene and how will this play out with China whom I sure would not like a unilateral action taken so close to their borders.
just talked with a colleague in Hawaii who has military intel (nothing classified though). long story short, we're fine. we're watching them like hawks and we can intercept just about anything sooner than its halfway point.
what I don't know (not a rocket scientist) is how intercepting a nuke works...
in the words of kendrick & cole: we gon be alright
Pretty sure we had this technology in the 80's "S.T.A.R. Wars". At least we claimed we did. I don't know what our modern capabilities are but then it was a bullet shooting a bullet out of the sky scenario.
I'm glad to hear 'we gon be aight'. But at what point it is worth just not having this unpredictability in our world. Wasn't there a plot on this season's Homeland on Showtime where the Iranians were in talks with North Korea for a bomb. This can't be out of the real of possibility, not necessarily for the Iranians but anyone with a checkbook.
What we can't intercept is artillary shelling, all within range of Seoul. Any effort at toppling the NK regime will end up devastating SK. China will most likely invade NK to prevent a pro-US unified Korea, something China will not tolerate (and the US wouldn't either).
The traditional tech for intercepting a nuke is by deploying anti-ballistic missiles. The trajectory of a warhead is calculated and a missile takes out the warhead mid-air (like a defenceman going in for an open-ice check in hockey. Awesome analogy, I know)
The US should go to China, tell them we do not support a unified Korea (the SK's do not want the NK refuges anyway) and that if China can get NK under control, eliminate their nukes and push tubby out, the US will leave the Korean peninsula.
China will not support or allow us to attach NK because they do not want US troops on their border. Exact reason why Putin was aggressive as the West pushed closer to his border and why the US almost went to war with Russia when missiles were placed 90 miles off our border.
We are not going to do anything premempatively (if we are smart). The devastation that would hit Seoul would be profound and countless people would die.
NK cares about security and any sane dictator would pursue these WMD's because of the US and our illegal invasions. We destabilize, invade and bomb countries whenever we want. If you want to secure you rule you get a bomb or wait until you become unpopular in Washington.
The US should work with China to guarantee NK's security and our stance against regime change in exchange for a stopping and dismantaling of thief nuclear capabilities. If thy did this, we could remove sanctions and allow NK to develop. Pyongyang has show incredible changes and economic diversification and this would flow to the rest of the country if KJU wasn't worried about remaining in power.
Sadly, none of this will come to be. The US has no intention of leaving the Korean Peninsula. Our "pivot" to Asia is under the false notion that we are still the sole superpower or that we would ultimately attack China if needed. So we wrestle for power instead of peace. We talk about the horrible NK regime while we kill people wantonly in the name of democracy. We spent nearly a trillion on defense and have dilapidated infrastructure.
Eventually our house of cards built on sand will collapse and our reduced global stature will force the US to act like a respectful nation instead of the agnostic bully will currently are.
EDIT
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2017-02-13/trump-and-north-korea
Great article touching on many of the subjects I talked about.
While China obviously wants a buffer from SK/US, I think they are also loathe to take responsibility for a shit ton of North Korean refugees should the regime collapse.
It's China dude! They ain't bound by the laws of the liberal world. They'll do fine.
The refugees are another story though.
Really wish these guys would focus on one front at a time. If we're gonna sabre rattle with both Iran/Russia and China than there are some really negative potential outcomes there.
*We clearly can't have them with a functioning bomb. *
News flash, they already do.
http://npsglobal.org/eng/news/23-nuclear-a-radiological/566-north-korea…
Things are heating up; it's just unbelievable that in 2017 we are not too far from the precipice - unbelievable.
Trump and Kim Jong Un Summit: Is this the end of US - North Korea tensions? (Originally Posted: 03/10/2018)
Setting a historical precedent in US - North Korean relations, President Donald Trump yesterday announced that he is willing to meet face-to-face with Kim Jong Un. If the meeting takes place, it would make Trump the first US president to meet with a North Korean leader:
I think this could be a step in the right direction for improving US - North Korean relations. It sounds a lot better than having the two sides intimidate each other back-and-forth on Twitter/the media. Whether this meeting will be significantly different, however, I don't know.
How do you think this will this play out?
I am curious whether you think this will lead to anything substantial or if it that is just wishful thinking.
Let me know what you think.
Sources: WSJ, CNBC
DawgStreet, pure crickets, that's where I come in. Any of these useful?
No promises, but sometimes if we mention a user, they will share their wisdom: harvardgrad08 dazzahc djtalon
You're welcome.
Trump's "Big Deal" with North Korea De-nuclearization may be imminent (Originally Posted: 05/13/2017)
I know America is crazy about this FBI firing and whether Trump is fit for President position. However, in Korea and Asia, North Korea issue is one of the huge issues here. Well, Trump, Russia, and North Korea issues may be intertwined after all.
Trump administration's high official say North Korea is their No.1 Agenda. If Trump pulls off some sort of a de-nuclearization deal with North Korea, this can be his 1980s Wollman Rink moment repeated and again prove himself against all great odds.
Trump has done a lot of work and made some progress in this issue.
So below took place between February 2017 - Late April 2017. Trump has used both carrot and whip pretty well.
Firstly, he is intimidating North Korea by pressuring China. China last month I think told that "they would agree to America's surgical strike if it's on North Korea's nuclear facility" which was surprising change with their stance on North Korean issue. Also, China has drastically cut oil transport to North Korea. North Korea's oil price in Pyongyang is reported to double. Secondly, he is cajoling North Korea by continuously sending message that Trump's administration would be "honored" to have a dialogue with North Korea.
So now during May 2017, after the above, there has been indirect negotiating. Trump took an unconventional approach by putting forth "Big Offer" This is mainly four parts. There are what America offers if North Korea decides to give up their nuclear capacity. He also invited Kim to come over to United States for negotiation.
Then, China helped and said adding these three terms will help with the dialogue. 1. Economic Assistance 2. Substituting ceasefire status to armistice. 3. Establishing formal and amicable diplomatic relation with the North
Surprisingly earlier this week (May 11~12, 2017), North Korea responded that they would be "Open to dialogue with Trump adminsitration"
With South Korea's new pro-North Korea president elected in office, some sort of denuclearization deal may be very near.
North Korea issue will be the first big test for Trump as a president. This issue may break or make Trump as a president
Well it appears that NK might be not so open to the dialogue, considering they just launched another ballistic missile about 20 mins ago. But I agree with your points and think that this would be a yuge win for Trump if he can make some sort of deal happen. Getting China to stop accepting NK coal and use US coal instead was also an awesome move IMO.
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