U.S. inflation rises to 5.4%. Meat prices +10%, gas +42%
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10088083…
We're back to 2008 levels.
If the "official" inflation level is 5%, real inflation must be in the 10%-15% range.
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You will own nothing and like it, goy.
pls I don't want to eat the bugs and live in the pod
Goy?
It means “Gravy On Yo biscuits”
Burgers?
Might be helpful if shown in a sentence.
”Drumpfy is a Good Goy”
Love that an antisemitic post has 12 silver bananas on here...
I think most people thought it was guy misspelled.
I did not know the meaning until [Drumpfy] mentioned it.
LMFAO
Jerome Powell has been real quiet since you posted this
Inflation is definitely here, seen a laundromat paying an extra 1200 a month for ppl to fold towels. Groceries feel more expensive, gas is fucked
The inflation scare is just an excuse for Republicans to vote against infrastructure, education, and healthcare that benefits Americans. It's not even that bad and mostly caused by high demand for prices that went down during COVID.
Drumpfy always here to provide us with some shitty take
not that bad?
housing up to levels never seen, many americans now cant buy homes
rent in nyc is higher than pre covid levels
cars are out of control
groceries are out of control
gas is UP UP UP, gas over 5 bucks a gallon in ny area
education costs are up over 5% as always
damn seamless delivery is up and out of control
yeah but buying my kids socks at walmart isnt that much more expensive YoY. Thanks Biden for this wonderful economy and not tweeting mean things.
Except less people were living in major cities, using gas, or buying houses during the pandemic. So naturally it's spiking. Republicans are using this as an excuse to screw over their voters like they did when they got rid of the Obamacare mandate, or when they made Bezos pay 0$ in taxes, or.... the list goes on
Why are you blaming Biden? He does not control monetary policy and he has only been partially in control of fiscal policy for like 9 months.
Gas is about $3.25 in and around NYC except for some notorious ripoff stations. The inflation crowd is always so hysterical.
Hey! That's me!
Natural gas is up, meaning nitrogen-based fertilizers up like 3x, corn production cost up 3x ... food prices are up like 50% from 2 years ago
Are you buying at 10th and 16th? Fill up in Jersey dude.
Hold up hold up hold up. I agree with you that the situation is fucked and likely to get worse but I live in NYC dog… gas isn’t over $5 a gallon yet loll last I filled up I think like $3.60 but word
No
The Fed might act sooner than expected but my crystal ball is just as foggy as that of the next guy.
Kind of feel like the Fed is going to have a hard time unwinding this on
Gas price from last year is a shitty comp. It's up 22% from this time 2019. Still a lot not arguing there but it bothers me when people use 2020 as a comp as if it was normal.
Gas price is kind of a garbage inflation comp in general - it fluctuates way more based on near-term supply factors than long-term inflation.
I’m not inherently opposed to looking at it because it is a major daily expense for your average person and basically all consumer goods are subject to commodity pricing pressures, but it’s gone +/- ~50% multiple times since 2007 and is still like 40% below 2012 levels… that just reflects volatile underlying commodity prices, not macro inflation
Natural gas prices are up 268% YoY. That's not a natural fluctuation. That's a supply chain issue caused by bad global public policy and that's the kind of thing that f*cks the poor and middle class.
LOL, you know that fuel makes up about 10% of the average persons budget. Right? The idea that it shouldnt be included in inflation is a joke. The amount it moves is just part of reality. The four biggest things that people spend money on over the course of the life are not included in the official inflation metrics.
Gas prices are garbage for a technical analysis of inflation but I would argue it is one of the more powerful psychological variables. Gas prices are brightly displayed on every street and people pay attention at the pump to prices more than anywhere else.
Everyone loves that their portfolio and salaries are up, no one realizes expected price increases are being priced in…
LET’S GO BRANDON👏👏👏
who the fuck is brandon
https://www.indy100.com/viral/lets-go-brandon-biden-meme-b1935656
Have you been living under a fucking rock?
I said back in March 2020 (maaaaybe April 2020) that the Covid panic was not worth it, that we would end up causing more net harm. "You're just a heartless murderer who WANTS PEOPLE TO DIE!" I said that society needed to protect the vulnerable the best we could and press on with life, that shutting down the global economy was going to turn out bad and potentially cause a lot of younger people in America and poorer people globally to die.
I didn't foresee endless inflation, but it definitely should have been apparent to the "smartest people in the room" that obliterating the supply chain and paying people not to work would reduce supply and push up prices.
It's been in our faces, since lockdown and mask mandates went into effect, that our economy would see absolute turmoil. Of course, lockdown-supporting liberals are retarded and will never admit it. That's why they keep coming up with more variant hype. It's to distract from the fact that COVID was a total media-manufactured crisis and the damage our country has taken will end up accelerating our country's demise beyond anyone's pre-covid imagination.
I don’t think there are many “liberals” around anymore. They’re leftists.
i'm not for lockdowns, certainly not at this stage in the game (i think that a short one was warranted at the beginning though)
anyway i just want to say that a lot of people died horrible, painful deaths to this disease and while criticizing the response is ok, it's pretty shitty to call it a media manufactured crisis
Don’t forget who was President in those good old days.
This isn't about the U.S. I was very specific and deliberate when I said "the global economy." World leaders in nearly every country engaged in bad public policy.
Funny - I'm just reading "Geopolitcal Alpha" by Marko Papic and he mentions similar points. Shows some statistics about how the economic implications of the EU crisis led to increasing deaths in greece.. I think we will see a similar effect in future.
Welcome to Biden's economy
A bunch of first-level thinking Trumpers are going to use this as an easy chance to bash Biden, but as the smartest young minds in finance, I'd challenge you to articulate: what are the specific Biden policies that have caused this?
Supply chain disruptions have been an issue since the global economy shut down when Covid started, and the government has been wild spenders since Clinton. Trump promised to erase the national debt, and instead passed unprecedented spending packages for a Republican and grew the deficit another $8 trillion. Jerome Powell has printed so much money that his money printers are now a meme on this site and all the copycat finmeme accounts.
For those that would argue it's due to CARES Act direct payments, you're going to have to explain why nearly all developed countries have seen inflation trend upwards this year. (hint - overwhelmingly due to Covid recovery/supply chain issues)
So again for the "Let's Go Brandon" crowd (yawn) - what specific policies can be solely attributed to "Joe Biden's economy" that have caused this inflation?
Trump taught them well: remember when he bragged about each stock market record, or the lowest black unemployment?
people need to get it through their thick fucking skulls that presidents don't have much impact on the economy and it's almost all external factors
Yeah that is not going to happen. People like a scape goat rather than learning about how the world works.
noticed you changed your title to PE, would love to hear a recap of your journey away from IB and back to finance
anyway, agree, POTUS has little to nothing to do with this, the first level thinking is what I'd expect from 85 year old widow clients who never took an econ class, not people who want to be masters of the universe
I wouldn't say "little-to-nothing." Nearly all of the worst performing states economically are Democrat-run states presently and nearly all of the best performing states economically right now are Republican-run states. That's not mere coincidence. The reality is, POTUS and his wing men in the media are pushing panic porn and paying people to stay home; this is f*cking up Dem-led economies and, for everyone else, it is contributing to labor shortages and thus supply shortages and thus higher prices. Inflation may be a drag on the entire global economy, but the best way to counter inflation is for the economy to grow ahead of it. Bad inflation policy would be to engage in policies that hurt economic growth in the face of rising inflation.
Blue states make up 70% of the GDP, while red states are about as developed as Eastern Europe (lmao)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_…
This has nothing to do with the topic at hand--current economic performance during Covid.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/coronavirus/here-are-the-states-re…
Red states are not really doing better with recovery; it's pretty mixed, all the worst performers other than tourism reliant Hawaii are Republican. The best performers are in New England or the Great Plains
full disclosure - I didn't vote for biden nor any democratic congressional people in 2020 and think he's an idiot. that said, I'm sick and tired of half baked takes trying to describe how much politics affects things as mysterious as inflation
inflation is at a country wide level, not just state wide, so that's a bit of a stretch to compare those two. I could also say "the only times we've had a recession in the past 30 years have been under republican presidents, that's not mere coincidence." actually, it could be mere coincidence, so much of life is random. like I could easily point fingers at LBJ and JFK for leading to the horrible economic times of the 1970s, but how can one know that it wasn't other presidents' policies like Ike that led to overvaluations in the late 60s combined with Nixon being another idiot.
but the problem is this - inflation is very mysterious, it comes and goes, waxes and wanes, and can be both from short term supply shocks which are difficult to argue as one person's fault, or structural forces which could be the fault of many generations. the issue is all we see is higher prices, the higher prices don't tell us if it's because of democratic governors' covid policies, trump's handling of the pandemic leading to those policy reactions, decades of deficit spending by both parties, and more.
maybe it's no one's fault, maybe it's everybody's fault, but I believe one thing - that it's highly unlikely that a complex problem has a simple answer like "ITS THIS POLITICAL PARTY AHHH"
You literally didn't even read what i wrote. Your response is nonsense.
I think this is a good take. The one area the administration could be playing into inflation is that inflation expectations may help cause/further inflation itself. Massive spending bills don't help temper those expectations.
now you're wading into the territory of soros's theory of reflexivity, or that we simply will it into existence. interesting to be sure, but it fails to have a necessary property of all scientific theories - it must be falsifiable
since I'm not sure I ever answered my favorite question "so what?" and I think the answer to that is protect yourself by living below your means and having a portfolio that could do well in an inflationary environment (e.g. avoiding long duration assets), help the less fortunate through philanthropy focused on economic independence so they have "pricing power" when it comes to their own financial wellbeing, as well as voting for politicians who have an interest in ensuring those without a portfolio don't become destitute because of inflationary pressures
Wrote about my leave from IB here and will probably do another post once I hit the one year mark - https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/reflections-on-leaving-ib-after-…
Haven't switched jobs since, just thought the PE-Other moniker fit better than the Corp Dev (PE portfolio company executive)
Biden not knowing where he is doesn't mean his puppeteers aren't to blame.
Remember those green certificates to placate investors and be classified as Esg I mentioned? I did say they cost an extra throughout the entire supply chain that would end up being paid by consumers, didn't I? I'm not saying they explain all of the inflation spike but they are the only factor staying long term.
Our beloved liberal elite loves the mantra of not letting a good crisis go to waste and they worked hard to create the Esg fad combined with supranational treaties and various government regulations.
Build Back Better and all that. Enjoy the bill
Well for one the new vaccine mandate. I mean that has directly caused the cancelation of tens of thounds of flights in about a week. So there is that.
But more generally the spending that this country is doing is being driven by the Potus. That is directly leading to the inflation. Even if the spending bills never get passed the inflation is already priced into the market.
(Lord Jesus give me the strength to stop arguing with people half my age...)
The Southwest sick-out rumor has been debunked by the CEO himself - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwests-flight-disruptions-are-jus…
How could....a not yet enacted federal vaccine mandate retroactively cause inflation? facepalm.gif
You're missing the bigger picture. The single greatest policy failure from Biden on the economy was when he supported nationwide lockdowns. All of these supply chain issues wouldn't have taken place had we not allowed the media to lock us in our homes for a year, and democrats like Biden were the biggest proponent of literally shutting down business and acting surprised when they closed doors permanently six months later.
If you want to say that this was justified, because you feel COVID is that serious of a disease, then that's fine. However, these are the economic conditions that you have sowed and now Biden will reap them, even if the majority-retarded American population can't pinpoint the hypocrisy in their beliefs of being pro-lockdown and anti-recession.
I'm glad our elites think the Weimar Republic was a fun time that should be emulated.
In the last year my car has gone up from 13.5k to 17.5k bruh
and they say cars a depreciating asset...
that's because a bunch of dipshits who create microchips decided to cancel orders from chinese factories early covid
demand increased instead of decreased, those factories started producing other shit, and now you can't get a new car (so used car prices are exploding)
used car prices going up is not inflation, it's a supply crunch
that said, there is definitely real inflation in this economy - just the people who say that used cars or gasoline are examples are idiots
that's because a bunch of dipshits who design cars decided to include lots of tech that requires microships.
Outside of safety features and a radio, what else do we need? I don't need my car manufacturer to increase the price of my car so it can install cameras to spy on me while I'm driving, scrape my text messages and calls to send them to the manufacturer, collect my location data sell it to the highest bidder, or track when I'm going 2 miles over the speed limit so my car insurance can use that info against me if I ever get in an accident.
I guess people just like paying money to get f***d in the ass.
I went out to a restaurant on Saturday and it had a note attached to the menu that said “due to global supply shortages and rising inflation, we have applied an additional 4% surcharge.”
if spending a few extra bucks to fill up your car keeps you up at night idk what to tell ya tbh
Rent is the biggest punch in the stomach rn.
Well I would bet that keeps up about 30 to 40% of the population of the country. So yea, it is a fucking problem to worry about.
one last thing. I abhor much of the monetary and fiscal policy of the last 15 years, but for those on this forum: if your personal finances can't take inflationary pressure, the problem is you, not inflation.
I don't think many are personally concerned - in fact most will reap the benefits due to rising stock market, real estate assets, and lower debt in real terms.
BUT, for those people who don't own any assets, and are living pay check to pay check, and seeing rising gas and grocery prices with stagnant wages, yes that's a huge problem.
100%
Beyond these base numbers, shadow inflation is a serious consideration we should think about, too. Even paying the same price, many businesses have offered inferior or shrunken products in the name of pandemic safety. Hotels won’t clean rooms, flights offering more limited food and beverage services, restaurants taking longer and sometimes limiting menu size. I get many of these are discretionary costs, but it’s still a real concern. Compare services you get now to those you did in 2019. The difference is obvious, and it doesn’t look like it’s improving. If we never push to truly get back to normal, these trends won’t improve. People need to get back to work, and to start living normally without fear. We can’t be sheltered forever, we have the vaccine. Either get it or don’t, but both groups have to accept some risk in their lives. We still drive cars, we still drink alcohol, we can’t not live life out of fear of a small chance to lose it. If we do, our lives will continue to become less meaningful and enjoyable. At some point, we have to push back. I hope people will eventually see what’s happening and recognize things these are interconnected to lockdowns.
on god bro. taco bell used to sell their $5 chalupa box with a burrito, chalupa, chips, AND a soft taco, but now they took the soft taco away from the $5 box. You have to pay 6 DOLLARS to get the box with the soft taco now. Absolutely insane and quite disappointing to be honest. thats a 20% increase for the same thing
shrinkflation
They should have both the Taco Bell Index and the Big Mac Index
You cannot say the blue states are a failure…when by design they have chose to “overspend on innovation.” You cannot say inflation is rampant when every millennial on here wants to go do growth equity. The reality is todays youth are making a conscious decision to spend on a world they want and AMZN/NFLX inflation has way worse and they take it. Avocado toast still love it. Not sure why we think some high gas prices are going to make them change their thoughts.
Lastly how many times did Trump bring up the “trillion dollar club of companies from the blue states”. Even Donald knew.
The liberalx told you that "meat should become luxury", didn't they? You don't want to eat expensive chemical high fat low protein fake meat? They will nudge you into the right direction. You can try bugs too.
Levered-up gang breathes a sigh of relief
Inflation is not good, and stagflation is worse. Take a look at the 1970s bear market, largely precipitated by energy shortages leading to high energy prices in a low growth environment. Worst bear market since the Great Depression (-48% peak to trough). Things are basically trending in that same direction today as GDP growth will likely slow from here while costs are continuing to rise. All signs point to the fact recent rising costs are not "transitory", and messed up global supply chains will probably take at minimum a year to sort through.
I hope we don't experience a repeat of the 1970s macroeconomic environment.
This is the most terrifying scenario IMO.
Scary scary world…where PE thrived, banks printed money. Everyone on this site would have gladly worked in finance. Please not that again…
You do realize what inflation does to interest rates right? And how 99% of the "alpha" in PE is generated by levering up to the greatest extent possible on the cheapest debt possible? Surely this is an obvious point to Mr. HF PM?
The higher gas and oil goes the better solar and wind look! Bring on the destruction of the fossil fuel industry.
Btw Drumphy is correct in saying we are coming off a low base from last year.
Nice, should be great for all those people who drive gas cars to work.
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