How do you get into VIC? Please critique my write-up
Hi Monkeys,
I've been using VIC for a few years and reading all the classic write ups to learn. Recently moved up the ladder a little bit and now have some more free time to allocate to investing my pa - I wrote the write-up below and as my first submission to VIC, I thought I had a good shot. Please let me know if you guys have any tips / advice on how to get admitted and improve the quality of my due dilligence.
Cheers!
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Write-up:
Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN)
I believe Bowman Consulting Group (NASDAQ: BWMN), a small-cap engineering and professional services firm, offers a unique growth story in an often-overlooked sector. With a market cap around $350 million and a path to $320+ million in revenue in the coming year, Bowman is a credible mid-size player consolidating a fragmented industry (civil engineering, land surveying, renewable energy infrastructure services). Management is executing a disciplined acquisition strategy, picking up smaller firms at 6–7x EBITDA multiples, driving roll-up synergies, and spurring mid-to-high single-digit organic growth. Meanwhile, the stock trades at roughly 12–13x forward EBITDA, which to me does not fully reflect Bowman’s double-digit revenue expansion potential and ongoing margin improvements.
If management meets or slightly exceeds the $32–35 million adjusted EBITDA target for 2024 and the stock re-rates closer to 14–15x EBITDA, I see an upside of ~40–50% from current levels. Given Bowman’s recurring client relationships, infrastructure tailwinds, and proven M&A track record, I view the downside as comparatively limited. In short, I believe BWMN’s risk/reward is attractive for patient investors looking for a smaller company with both organic and inorganic growth levers.
Business & background
Bowman Consulting is a nationwide engineering services firm that handles land development, civil engineering, surveying, zoning & permitting, environmental consulting, water/wastewater design, renewable energy engineering, and more. The typical end clients range from private developers (commercial, residential, mixed-use) to municipal governments, utilities, solar/wind operators, and telecom infrastructure players. Originally founded in 1995 by current CEO Gary Bowman, the company listed publicly in 2021.
I originally got interested in Bowman for a couple of reasons:
1. Favorable industry setup - the engineering services space is highly fragmented, with thousands of small local/regional firms. Larger acquirers like Bowman can buy these subscale businesses at ~6x EBITDA. By rolling them into a national platform, cross-selling the expanded capabilities, and removing overlapping back-office costs, Bowman effectively arbitrages the private-market multiples (6x) into a public multiple that’s historically ranged 10–14x for established pure-play engineering companies.
2. Committed & aligned management - founder Gary Bowman still owns a large stake (roughly 8–10% of shares) and remains heavily involved operationally. I like founder-led roll-ups when the leader has a track record of integrating deals effectively. Bowman’s M&A track record is relatively short as a public entity, but they’ve closed over a dozen deals in the last ~2 years with no major blowups. They consistently incorporate acquired firms’ leadership as local/regional “hubs,” retaining key staff—crucial in professional services. Also, management has a well-articulated strategy: they want to break $500+ million revenue by mid-decade, partly by continuing acquisitions of $5–20 million revenue targets, financed with a mix of debt and equity.
3. Attractive end markets - Bowman’s exposure to infrastructure, energy, and real estate is balanced—some resi/commercial real estate might slow, but offsets come from municipal infrastructure (federally funded, multi-year backlog) and renewables (soaring demand for solar/wind engineering). They’re not overly reliant on any one region or sector, so cyclical dips in one area can be mitigated by growth in others.
Financials & valuation
TTM revenue is around $270 million, up from $130 million pre-IPO—reflecting both acquisitions and ~8% organic growth. Management’s 2024 guidance is $320–340 million in revenue, implying high-teens overall growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin was around 9–10% in 2023; the near-term goal is to push that into the 10–12% range through integration and scale. My base case for 2024 calls for $32–35 million of EBITDA, with a margin around 10–11%. Net debt is roughly $50 million, and net debt/EBITDA is 1.5–2.0x depending on how you pro forma in the most recent acquisitions. That’s comfortable for a services roll-up, particularly if the deals keep coming in at 6x multiples.
Comps
Other engineering/professional services trades in the mid-teens EV/EBITDA. For instance, peers like TRC Companies (acquired by New Mountain a few years ago) and Montrose Environmental (ME) historically were ~12–16x. Well-known design/engineering consultancies such as Tetra Tech (TTEK) and Stantec (STN) trade 17–20x forward EBITDA—though they’re larger, with more stable margins. If Bowman executes well and margins approach 12% or higher, I think the stock can command at least 14–15x forward EBITDA.
Valuation methodology
At a $23 share price, BWMN’s market cap is $350 million. Add $50 million net debt = $400 million enterprise value. On my base case $32 million 2024E EBITDA, that’s 12.5x EV/EBITDA. If Bowman hits $35 million in 2024 EBITDA and trades at 14.5x, the EV would be $507 million. Subtract net debt, that implies a market cap of $457 million or a stock price near $30 (~30% upside). If the margin expansion is better or synergy outperformance drives $40 million EBITDA in 2024, or if the market re-rates them at 15x, the stock could approach $35 (~50% upside).
Competitive positioning & value-creation levers
- No single engineering consultancy dominates the U.S. This fragmentation fuels Bowman’s M&A pipeline. They’ve acquired smaller players in Arizona, Florida, Texas, etc., that bring local relationships plus specialized expertise (e.g., environmental permitting in wetlands, advanced geospatial mapping). Each tuck-in can expand Bowman’s cross-selling.
- The biggest challenge in engineering is talent retention—“the assets go down the elevator each night,” as the old saying goes. Bowman’s retention so far looks good, aided by ESOP/stock grants and a decentralized approach that keeps local leadership. Meanwhile, from an investment perspective, it’s a plus that Bowman’s founder is still in the driver’s seat and has proven able to retain acquired partners under the Bowman brand.
- The 2021 Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act earmarks billions for roads, bridges, water systems, and broadband expansion over five-plus years, benefiting engineering firms. Bowman’s backlog has seen an uptick in municipal projects. The shift to renewable energy also fosters robust demand for specialized engineering—Bowman works on solar farm design, wind farm site planning, grid interconnect feasibility, etc. Those are multi-year expansions.
- In a typical city or region, Bowman might historically have offered only land surveying, but with acquired capabilities (like a specialized traffic engineering firm or water/wastewater team), Bowman can propose comprehensive solutions. This cross-selling synergy helps them compete for larger, more profitable projects, thereby lifting average contract size.
Catalysts
1. Accretive M&A continues - Bowman has a pipeline of possible bolt-ons. Each deal done at 6–7x EBITDA with synergy lifts the consolidated multiple. By turning smaller deals into the corporate average multiple near 10–12x (or higher in a bull case), Bowman creates value on each acquisition. A steady stream of these tuck-ins can drive consistent EPS upside.
2. Margin expansion - if Bowman demonstrates margin traction (e.g., pushing from ~10% to 12–13% EBITDA margin) in upcoming quarters, I expect the Street to reward the stock. The professional services sector typically trades more richly once a company shows a proven ability to scale overhead.
3. Higher analyst coverage - BWMN is undercovered, with maybe three or four small brokerages writing. More coverage or an initiation by a bigger firm could expand the buyer base. As Bowman passes $300 million in sales, I suspect they’ll appear on more investors’ radar.
4. Infrastructure projects - high-profile project wins in highways, rails, or major municipal expansions could highlight Bowman’s capabilities. Typically, the Street or press picks up on big contract announcements. A string of such wins can show the synergy from acquisitions.
5. Possible dividend or larger strategic M&A - Bowman could choose eventually to return capital once the balance sheet is comfortable and the pipeline of targets is reduced. Alternatively, a single big M&A deal that’s highly accretive could catch the market’s attention. I think if Bowman found a transformative acquisition (like doubling in size) at 6–8x, that might be a big catalyst for re-rating.
Risks & mitigants
- Integration risks in rolling up professional services often occur. If integration fails or key staff leaves, Bowman could see margin erosion or intangible asset write-downs. I take some comfort from management’s experience and the small, incremental nature of each deal (typical size $5–20 million in revenue, so no single big bet).
- Cyclicality / RE slowdown - Bowman’s land development practice might suffer if commercial or residential real estate slumps. Indeed, rising interest rates have slowed new project starts in some metros. Mitigant - Bowman’s backlog stands near a record, and the firm’s diversification into public infrastructure and renewables can offset a cyclical real estate dip. Possible tailwinds from Trump de-regulation.
- Talent Retention - this is always a people business. A wave of senior engineer departures could hamper growth. Bowman tries to mitigate that by making acquired firm principals “regional leaders” who remain invested. The ESOP helps, too.
- Leverage & capital needs - Bowman finances deals with a mix of stock and debt. If credit markets tighten or the stock dips, it could hamper M&A. Right now, net leverage near 2x is acceptable to me, but if they get too aggressive, it’s a concern. That said, the deals are small and synergy paybacks are quick.
- Liquidity & small-cap vol - at ~$350 million market cap, BWMN can be thinly traded. This is not for those needing large position liquidity. The stock can also whip around on light volume or small news items.
Catalyst
- Continued tuck-in acquisitions at 6–7x.
- Margin expansion from synergy, scale, and cross-selling.
- Potential for increased coverage or larger strategic deals.
- Ongoing federal infrastructure spending catalyzing engineering demand.
You have no variant opinion or real analysis, this is just a regurgitation of facts.
Based on the current stock valuation and trend, I'd say a positive outlook would be a variant opinion backed by the underlined catalysts I mentioned - could I pay you for a quick call to discuss how to do real analysis beyond this? Or do you have some advice?
Sounds like an AI fishing for training data.
I got into VIC on my 2nd attempt. First attempt was similar to this writeup (just a little longer), so this advice is just based on my experience. And I also agree with ^above in that there's no real analysis or variant perception in this pitch.
For applications, firstly you have to pitch something (1) interesting which (2) the market has gotten wrong/misinterpreted for XYZ reasons and (3) has some sort of catalyst or optionality which will make the market realize its mistake and re-rate the stock. These 3 things usually come from knowing a stock and its industry inside out and knowing why the stock is priced a certain way (sentiment surrounding it) and what can/will happen to either change the sentiment or change the fundamentals in your favor. What also helps with VIC is an idea which has some downside protection and is a win-win, or lose-little-if-wrong idea.
You've mentioned some numbers and said some things that might/could happen and some stuff that management might/could do. But are they gonna do them? Are your numbers backed by any real analysis of key drivers, or just off the top of your head? In all of my pitches, I have hard facts as to why numbers will be what I say they will be. If you don't have an edge on why the numbers will be different from consensus then there's no point pitching something in my view.
Fair comments - how would I be able to know what they are gonna do for sure without a management call? The numbers came from a model I built albeit modelling is a craft as opposed to science meaning the exact numbers are not defining and in the VIC guidelines it says to avoid screenshots - hence the high level numbers. How would I develop edge that goes beyond the market simply being wrong about a given businesses performance?
You'll never know what they'll do for sure but its your job to make the case based on probabilities and what's most likely going to happen, given your research. Statements like "if the margin expansion is better" or "if the market re-rates the stock" won't cut it. You have to make the case why margins will expand and under what circumstances will the stock re-rate.
With roll-ups, consistent execution is hard and synergies take a lot of time in most cases with many bumps along the road. Saying margins will improve through integration and scale isn't enough, you have to say why and quantify your reasoning. If you don't know the stock/industry well enough to clarify these points, pitching a stock like this is hard.
High level numbers are fine you just have to derive where you're getting them from, qualitatively.
for acceptance at least (not the maintenance posts), it feels like they have a big preference for large variant perceptions and special situations with somewhat specific catalysts, and backed by first hand research or due diligence work
Good company, doing well, at an ok valuation = straight to the reject pile for the most part
Need a more specific thesis. A common issue for a lot of ideas is xyz is a good company, doing well, and as they continue to do well they will re-rate from 16x to 19x. Well why? The multiple today exists for a reason, and discounts all future growth (or at least balances all the aggregate bear/base/bull views on potential growth paths). Future good results CAN drive multiple re-rate, but you get the idea here
anyways, they really like ideas to be very specific and actionable, with a large delta to consensus / price implied expectations
That makes a lot of sense - thanks!
Any advice on how to screen for opportunitites which fit this criteria? A name I'm currently reading about and seems to be undervalued is BMBL - recent earnings don't seem as bad as the market is pricing in my view. It was written up c.7 months ago and I am thinking of submitting a writeup in the coming days as my second attempt - does applying with an idea that was been written up once before affect acceptance?
I think it's probably best to assume the market knows something you don't when starting to look at a name. It's not as simple as a surface level analysis of "earnings don't look bad, the market overreacted". I would say you can only intelligently claim that if you've been closely following the name and industry for a few quarters minimum, and nobody wants to do that legwork for a VIC write-up or PA investment. It's just not that easy otherwise everyone would be doing it and making money consistently, which is clearly not the case.
Other comments and many threads have covered the concept of a variant perspective, so I won't get into that too much. However, I would just suggest that maybe the logical place to start is to assume that the market is right and figure out why it reacted the way it did and how the market is pricing the stock. You have to know how the market thinks about the stock to have a variant perspective.
Identifying a truly different perspective is hard and not common. Realistically, I think you will have a better chance at arguing a different probability weighting (base/bull/bear) on the key driver of the stock and arguing the catalyst path that will result in changing the probability weighting (more bullish, more bearish, etc) than you will coming up with a new angle on the stock that is not already priced in and has a reasonable shot of being right.
To your actual question, I don't think applying with a stock that has been written by others would impact your chances of acceptance. Many stocks have been discussed multiple times on VIC. Full disclosure: I am not a member and have not submitted an idea to enter in years.
BMBL isn't down on earnings, its the outlook.
Sorry, by earnings I meant current and guidance - bleak outlook as you say.
My view is Bumble’s stock decline reflects an overreaction to conservative guidance rather than deteriorating fundamentals. The company is actively driving efficiency through a 35% headcount reduction, cutting costs while maintaining growth initiatives to slash waste, AI-driven engagement features, a revamped premium tier for up-sell in a market becoming increasingly polarised in terms of % wallet spend, and international expansion are boosting user retention and ARPU.
The Fruitz and Geneva acquisitions position Bumble for Gen-Z market leadership ahead of MTCH and community-based networking, diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional dating and capturing a growing, anit-social generation.
A $450M (even with only c.200m remaining in this program, that's a material % of the market cap and public float) buyback program signals management confidence, and with 10× forward earnings vs. Match Group’s ~16.5×, the market is underpricing Bumble’s improving profitability. If the company executes even modestly, the stock is primed for a significant re-rating upward so while it is not a risk free trade given underlying industry headwinds, the upside is definitely there and on a risk-adjusted basis, I feel pretty good so far. Still more DD to do to cover other questions I have at this stage though.
ex-HF analyst here.
i agree with above poster. your thesis is just historical facts mixed with hopes & opinions. it's not compelling or differentiated.
look at the well scored pitches there, usually identifies a hidden gem, volatile biz model that obfuscates real earnings power, misunderstood airline with domain expertise on why route growth is not cyclical but secular, etc.
all the makings of a differentiated pitch is what you're missing. not to be harsh but do real work and focus on a name + industry you know well. AND NEVER pitch a re-rating. no one but Thor knows about re-ratings which is all based on fundamentals changing which you give 0 conviction on.
It's clear that you are engaged with the company and want to get this right. I would challenge you to reframe the thinking so that anytime you want to write "signals" or "if the company/management...", you instead think "how/what needs to happen?". The last paragraph has a good example of this where you suggest the stock is positioned for a re-rating if the company executes. Go a little deeper and try to quantify. Try to figure out what is the earnings/margin/growth bar that Bumble needs to hit for a re-rate, what needs to occur for them to hit that target, and what are the key catalysts/announcements/data releases/etc that will make other investors realize this. In other words, what is the market expecting and what is the premium to that estimate needed to move the stock. Re-rates are tough because they are a lot more unpredictable and usually indicative of a fundamental change in the story/business rather than beats unless its really strong.
Eight silver bananas for this pile of useless word vomit book report really shows the quality of average feedback you get on these boards. Bunch of college kids impressed by this and upvoting lol
Also forgot to mention the return of the prodigal CEO in at the end of Q1-2025 - wouldn't necessarily assign huge value to this as the underlying market has changed since she led the firm but nonetheless, it signals dedication and there are few executives with the know-how to run this firm well and generate value.
Trust me look for something elsewhere BMBL is a fucking shit show. I used to trade dating apps for a bit.
This entire thread is ridiculous because it's people in ivory towers regurgitating facts and then everyone else regurgitating facts. To the original poster: don't waste time to please this VIC nonsense. The ideas on there suck. Most of the pitches are the same as sell side reports and frankly would not have qualified for membership. Most of the membership pitches are geeky regurgitations of facts but simply sprinkled with enough buzzwords from Graham and Doddsville and cover some microcrap with a bizarre, low probability thesis. Having a differentiated view is pretty stupid and a waste of time. It is not the path to be a great investor. You are much better off knowing more names and having factual data points to support your views on those names than trying to argue for sum of the parts or hidden gems for some esoteric REIT or unsecured bond that isn't even liquid.
Lone Pine co-CIO talked about this recently, that we look down on someone pitching Apple but in reality Apple has been one of the best long for 2 decades now. I don't think having a differentiated view is stupid but solely finding a differentiated view on every company will make you miss some great investments.
Yeah, I watched her interview but I think the idea behind value investing (VIC style) is margin of safety - as in, sure a quality business compounds over time and this is what Buffet has been doing for decades now, but with a small capital base, it seems you can outperform by taking bets on something that is differentiated which can swing your way in a meaningful way, relatively quickly.
saw that exact video yesterday lol
Apple WAS a differentiated view though. Bad example. Everyone thought bad hardware company for decades while it continually re-rated to good software tech company.
Why is every buyside wannabe so hung up about getting into VIC? Whatcha gonna do if you do get in—put it on your resume?
It's more for the learning - there is no book out there that teaches the practical side of investing. I've read the classics, intelligent investor, security analysis, one up on wall street, quality of earnings, all of the buffet tribute books (snowball, tao etc), hedge fund market wizards, Buffet's shareholder letters etc. None of these texts teach you the craft which takes times and experience.
And yes, I think it would be a good acolade to add the the CV given how difficult it seems to get in.
Nobody in HF world will give one shit that you are in VIC. Can tell you that now and will bet many monies on it. It is no longer a good platform. Your point is taken that it’s hard to learn. The cold hard truth is that you really just learn these skills mostly on the job and if you don’t get the job, you can’t really learn how to use data to drive a variant view and figure out how to then monetize it. Full stop
Just one data point: I tried pitching VIC once and got my rejection the very next day.
Echo the others on a contrarian stock that is "underappreciated" by the market.
I think we will actually benefit from more subjective thinking provided that it is indeed critical thinking, than amalgamation of facts and data.
Do you have some advice on how to be more subjective without simply 'educated guessing'?
The art of investing is exactly that- educated guessing. “If everyone knew what the future holds than idiots could predict it too”.
This reads like a credit pitch rather than an equity one. In equities, a good business strategy and some management expected margin expansion isn’t going to get you paid. You’re missing the market analysis. Why is it trading below peers? What does the m&a pipeline look like and what is the strategy (expanding geographically, into new verticals, etc)? As far as valuation goes, your thesis hangs on acquisitions yet you didn’t account for a growth in debt from that.. in your valuation, if debt increased to $75m from $50m, you’re base case upside is 21%. That’s far less attractive for an investment with no catalyst other than they’ll keep doing what they’ve been doing. Honestly, the pitch got me interested in the business and your investment writing is decent, but you need to shift perspectives depending on the investment strategy. Also, you didn’t mention FCF, are they generating cash? If so, how much and where does it go (I’m assuming acquisitions)? If not, what’s using the cash since low leverage implies low interest, (capex heavy, working capital constraints)? My advice, dig deeper and ask more questions then try to find the answers.
Very helpful - I work in private credit so that explains the lack of equity-like depth of analysis probably haha. Will need to work on improving this for my next pitch - if you're interested in the company, would you mind sharing your insights / write-up either on here or via PM? would be good to get another example to learn from.
Following up?
What are insiders doing with their shares? Are they buying, selling, or staying put? Similarly, is there increasing or decreasing institutional ownership? If large funds are avoiding the name or reducing exposure, you need to explain why and what would reverse that trend.
Not surprised that this is coming from someone who took a private credit offer out of undergrad lmao
OP here, just wanted to say thanks to everyone who commented with some advice - I'm sure this thread will come in handy to many future people looking to get better at fundamental analysis.
I'll also update if and when I get into VIC - wish me luck.
Cheers!
good luck.
Also, since you are anonymous feel free to PM (not for a job I assure you)
LOL thanks, I'll pm
I’d say 75% of the professional pitches I have seen in my career (sellside then LO) would not make VIC by the standards laid out above lol.
Do you think every name in the book has some giga-brain variant perception behind it in what’s the most efficient markets have ever been?
As it turns out it’s a lot easier to make money by riding beta on a secular theme rather than scraping hundreds of satellite images of parking lots to come up with a differentiated view on traffic into a quarter.
i got in when i was in high school -- the strategy is to just write a short where you have some angle / edge that isnt priced in.
Market seems to agree so far
Seven weeks of Trump mean your forecasts are worthless.
Biden’s infrastructure spending is history. We’re heading into a recession so state and local governments will probably cut spending. Tariff uncertainty means capex by big corporate clients is off the table. Auto manufacturers aren’t reshoring their Canadian and Mexican suppliers. Drill, baby, drill is just politics. Biden unleashed energy producers and with recession looming, new production is not on the horizon. Exception is rebuilding and expanding electric grid. That’s only good thing ahead.
Basically, everyone is just waiting for Trump to die, get impeached or otherwise leave office before considering big projects. The dude is toxic.
Your point is not really valid given you cannot predict the impacts of Trump in any reasonable way. My thesis is based on fundamental analysis excluding macro - any uncertainty should be baked into the margin of safety which over a 5 year hold period, is quite substantial.
In the same boat as you - from a private credit seat, I've found VIC to be the most accessible resource for learning more on the fundamental investing side. Seeing some VIC slander throughout this thread, which is fair given the average write up quality, but is not tough to be able to tell which pitches are actually good content and helpful learnings. If you're on there enough, it's a great community and resource.
Will defer to others on feedback on your actual pitch. My personal experince was that it was helpful to write on a special situation (spinoff, post re-org equity, etc.). I picked an under the radar spinoff that checked a lot of the boxes Greenblatt wrote about.
For anyone following, I just posted another write-up - hopefully an improvement thanks to all of the comments. It's quite long but would appreciate some further feedback. Link
Thanks.
Well, the company is up 30% since you posted...
The other write up he posted is also up c.30%. 2/2 is not a large enough sample size and could be luck.
Although these kind of moves exactly in line with the analysis doesn’t seem like blind luck
yeah, that's what i am talking about. I was kinda telling the other guys here, you don't have to be non-consensus or have variance. His main basis is that near-term growth (which he puts forward as a high probability event, based on his catalysts) isn't shown completely at these price levels.
I wonder if this ‘strategy’ is essentially overlooked and therefore you can consistently make decent returns through this approach
It is, moreover this is especially present in companies with a blood on the street valuation, where everybody not only stops discounting future growth but even present intrinsic value, just because everyone thinks they're bound to go up. A prime example of this is STLA, the company has 1.8x cash and cash equivalents on its books than its market cap, and not a single sell rating, but no one's talking about it. Similarly look at MRK, almost all ER guys do think the patent cliff is overdiscounted but no player's taking a position in it. Most of the companies that adhere to this strategy are in the sweet spot between value and growth investing.
Moreover, I've got a bit of that Colm O'Shea psyche in me that you should absolutely bet on bubbles (just be sure when to get out :), if I kept on holding on to the non-consensus strategy, I would've kinda missed some of the biggest bull runs in our history. But this part is not the main thing, to a certain extent it would mean calling out tops (although if you are actively invested in a mass bull run/ bubble, and feel things ARE getting a lot frothy, just buy some T-bonds and sit the rest of it + the crash out: a thing many small shops did master in 2021+22 period)
Everyone will tell tou its bc your idea isnt original
But in reality you’re just not part of the prerequisite clubs
Your membership needed to be promised to you 6000 years ago
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