Is the tech sector the killer of active investing?
The current tech boom is definitely very different from late 1990s. We won't see a crash like the burst of dot-com bubble. But it seems like if the current trend continues, money will be all sucked to the tech sector, and active investing is destroyed. The future for professionals working in HF/AM/ER is so bleak
Your level of certainty seems excessive
This is a very amateur point of view
Are you really a VP in Equity Research?
That's exactly WHY this person is VP in sell-side ER.
Maybe he/she is an Airline/Restaurants/Energy analyst.
...what?
Curious what OP thinks the directionality is for the upcoming week...
Trends trend until they don’t
"The trend is your friend, until the trend ends."
-Some market technician I talked to years ago
true, this trend is super long-lived
I don't see the tech sector destroying active investing. There is no reason that it would.
Curious what people think about this / different perspectives
Tech is a misnomer. Industrial software is just software/apis carrying out a process a human would so it’s really an industrials company. Recommen Andreesson’s Software is Eating the World essay
The bubble WILL burst, that's not the question. The question is when.
The tech boom is driven by few things:
Does ESG inflow play a role in tech boom? Just curious.
Omg, great point. ESG is a great initiative but done incorrectly. Yes, look at solar, commodity business on the module making side, but it's a must own for ESG funds, and ESG funds are forming left and right, it's the new fad after ETF because they know money raising would be easy. EV definitely has a lot of blind ESG money in it, won't end well.
I think that can be said more so for wealth management for non-UHNW investors rather than the HF/AM space. People with a few hundred thousand in retirement savings will not pay the 2% fee to give their money to a money manager when they can use wealthsimple or another similar platform. However, although HF returns have been going down in recent years, there will still be a place for the top 10-25% who are able to consistently generate above-market returns for wealthy investors.
Dude have u considered that u can find the best stocks within tech still?
I can see what OP is driving at...but I think calling it the killer of active investing is a bit misleading - I would say it is forcing active investors to take up more tech/growth names. At the end of the day, the PM's job is to generate returns and if returns are only in tech, then to tech they must rotate.
I'm drawing very broad generalizations here - yes, the market loves growth/tech more than anything else (post-vaccine rotation notwithstanding), so yes tech names generally have the highest growth prospects so attract more inflows and buyside interest.
But even in non-tech sectors, the higher growth names always trade at much higher multiples compared to average growth names. Unless someone is running an energy-focused fund, the PM's fiduciary responsibility means aligning the portfolio toward what the market is favoring (growth/tech). If tech ever goes for a multi-year bust, the skilled active investor will be rotating out to quality value or value.
10 years ago, Einhorn, Ackman, Loeb were generally held up as top-notch investing geniuses with a value style. I think today, you can see that value has floundered for the past 10 years and Ackman/Loeb have adapted very well, Einhorn stubbornly held on to his value framework. So yes, if the argument you're trying to make that tech is the killer of active investing, sure...But active investing by nature means recognizing that the market will reward different attributes tomorrow than it did yesterday and positioning yourself to take advantage of that.
On the mutual fund side, value mutual funds have suffered and a few promise to hold dear their value ideals and suffer. The more flexible ones are saying they will adapt to some quality-value framework instead of just continuing to underperform.
Thanks for the insight. If there is a tech or broader market crash say in 2 years, will it be positive for long-only, in terms of AUM going-forward?
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