3 statement model - stub periods?
Hi all,
Fairly simple question but struggling to find an answer on this. Some help on this would be much appreciated!
How do we account for stub years in 3 statement models? Eg. say we have FY 2020 (December). But the company also has 2021 half year data (June).
How should we present 2021 data?
As historicals - so use 2021 LTM data (so June to June)?
As a projection - in which case how do we project this and incorporate 2021 half year data?
Or something else entirely?
Thanks!
What are you trying to model for? Is it a valuation? Is it for projecting the company's results post-transaction after a stub period transaction?
For valuations, it depends when the valuation date will be. If the valuation date will be your stub (e.g., 6/30), then you would grow your next period at half the anticipated rate to account for the company capturing half the forecasted cash flows. Periods after that will be forecast as normal (12/31). If it's for a transaction, it's very helpful to look at LTMs. You can break these out in a separate tab of the model if you're worrying about messing your model up. If you're in a stub and expect the transaction to end as of the stub period, you'll typically detail an LTM in the income statement model, a 6/30 balance sheet, and a Jan-June cash flow statement. If you're in a stub and expect the transaction to end as of 12/31, break out the recent period to actual YTD results through 6/30, and insert a new column for "rest of year estimate."
This is how my bank looks at stub periods, obviously there's more than one way to skin a cat, but that's what I'd recommend
Thanks - that's really helpful.
On the valuation point - not sure I fully got that.
So lets our stub is 6/30/20 and we're valuing from that date. Will we half our growth rates (eg revenue) to forecast the next 6 months? Then once we reach 12/31/21 how do we forecast 12/31/22? Eg. for revenue we would normally just apply a growth rate to FY 12/31/21 to get FY12/31/22. However, in our example, we only have the last six months, so we can't do that?
Yes, you would half the growth rates and play with your margins until you achieve the FY 21 EBITDA you / your client was targeting. For FY 22 and thereafter, you'll just apply your full year's growth on FY 21 results. For discounting purposes, you'll have to apply 0.5 step increments, due to your next cash flow you'll receive will be in 0.5 years, 1.5 years, 2.5 years, etc.
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