How to tell if a bank is going downhill?
Aside from the obvious like deal volume and deal count. What if the majority of deals are of undisclosed value? Or is it possible that deal count is not indicative of firm activity, given there might be a large pipeline behind the scenes?
Would appreciate any insights into other metrics to use to evaluate an MM bank's performance.
it rhymes with "yuetsche dank"
Undisclosed deal value is NOT a sign of a bank’s performance. A lot of times clients would require deal value to not be disclosed and there isn’t anything a bank can do about it.
At the way things are going, whether it's European or not
id say barclays(basically lehman) is the exception, agree?
hmmm maybe - anecodatally they've been the standout among European peers (helped in no doubt by their US franchise). I haven't had a change to look at BBG yet, but think they're still placed well in the league tables (in lev fin at least from what I recall).
Two points may highlight that not all is good: (1) They are still on the hook for a couple of deals they've elected to underwrite but couldn't sell down completely (in lev fin), and (2) apparently the summer to FT conversion rate this year is 20%(!?) - I'm quoting this from one of those SA conversion rate threads on WSO (job market is tough atm)
a few barclays teams are completely collapsing so no
Is Rothschild going downhill?
He meant the European bulges. Lazard is doing well too. The problem with the European bulges is that they’re subject to all of the regulation of American banks plus even more in Europe but they don’t have the massive, profitable domestic commercial banking markets of American bulges or the gargantuan lending power that offers.
So they’re spread across markets in shittier businesses meaning it’s hard to invest in IB, and in the best global banking market (US) they’ve got their undercapitalized North American outpost office (separated by ringfence from HQ) facing down multiple well capitalized balance sheet gargantuans in BAML/Citi/JPM and two white shoe historic American bulges in MS/GS. And those two aren’t exactly small on the balance sheet front either.
So it’s a terrible situation for them. They’ve basically been crippled since 2009-2012.
When someone from accounts payable starts marking up your monthly corporate card statements.
Think there’s some ex-Wells guys on here who can maybe provide more color.
I might never understand what compels people to anonymously post these types of comments
he didn't post anonymously, but you did....?
Truist / Greenhill / DB / UBS / piper are the ones that seem to be struggling vs. recent years
Why do you say Piper? Stock was recently at all-time-high, as well as multiple acquisitions in recent years that have worked out fairly well so far, hugely expanding SA class, etc.
Truist isn’t going downhill, it’s simply languishing at the foot of the dung hill…
Wouldn’t CS also be in the list?
Truist just went through a merger. Banking mergers usually take a while. The platform is there. Not that they’re equivalent at all, but BAML struggled at first too even though that should have been a perfect and synergistic fit.
And agreed that I haven’t heard of Piper struggling. Would have guessed they had a good year.
I think it's indeed still too early to completely write-off Truist but they've lost a lot if not the majority of their top rainmakers over the past few years to other firms. Not exactly promising.
High turnover at director and above. One rainmaker moving doesn't always spell end times, but if the MDs are consistently moving around that's a red flag
Pretty simple chart tbh
Is it Greenhill?
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Yes No
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Its going downhill Its fine
Edit: lmao looks like i pissed off some greenhill bankers
Greenhill was one of the most respected names (maybe still is) on the street until recently due to a few key personnel departures. There are many reasons people come and go, personality conflicts, bonus dispute and so on. IMHO, Greenhill is still a great shop which offers some of the best exist oppt for junior bankers.
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