Rx Outlook
Curious to hear what you all think about the outlook of Rx for the short and long term. I’m not convinced that the actions of the current administration will lead to a recession, but general softness in the economy and inflation being higher than 2% (in the 2.25-2.75%) range seem to be more structural issues for our economy which could be good for Rx deal flow.
Long term, I can’t see how the federal government can sustain these debt levels without it leading to austerity measures which will definitely be bad for the economy in the short term.
Bump!
GS are forecasting default rate to rise from 3.5 to 8%. HHs have been hitting my friends up for Rx analyst roles. So I assume good outlook
Short term it will likely be much of the same, maybe BKs tick up but there’s so much credit both flowing in the system and on these companies balance sheets it will need to get worked out, even if rates come down. It’s an interesting question particularly IMO when it comes to AI long term.
Intuition says restructuring outlook would be bullish with the sheer amount of disruption coming, asymmetry across industries to those who adopt first, overcapacity, risks to capex, etc.
Flip side of this coin might suggest that the cost reduction, operational agility, labor-light models and general productivity gains achieved through AI would limit restructurings as businesses adapt and weather the storm
I don’t think it will be mass liquidations, maybe something closer to large scale consolidation across industries as reality sets in
Curious what others think
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