Will there be layoffs in IB?
Are layoffs coming to IB especially since we seem to be in a recession now? Kinda worried about possibility of layoffs?
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Revenues down 50-60. So yes.
The real question is whether there will be layoffs in research. None at my bank and hiring is still in full force.
Lol there will be definitely be ER layoffs. A ton happened asap in 2020 when Covid hit. Open positions might be cut so analysts with larger teams will downsize junior headcount
Yeah but AN/AS will likely be fine. MD/directors who aren’t producing this year should be worried though
sorry im a newb, what is an and as
Analyst/Associate
Will An1s at BBs be cut? (Credit Suisse in particular?)
ik they have had some bad press
Heard from a guy in the COO office at my BB that the first wave will be this fall sometime, definetly will hit before bonuses for obvious reasons. Will likely just be a few underperforming MDs and maybe a couple directors per group to start and more later if the market is still way down compared to pre-COVID highs (We won't see another 2021 for a long time if not ever). There are 40% more MDs on now then when I started on my current team in early 2019 so time to trim down the fat. I can't imagine it will affect juniors much given they don't make as much and natural attrition is pretty high. That said, with 16 analysts and 20 associates joining this fall maybe they let go of a couple under performing associates that definetly won't make VP anyway. Still can't imagine analysts get cut given the low amount of 2nd years we currently have. I obviously can't speak for other banks or even other teams at our bank. I know were in a hiring freeze right now and and lateral recruiting inbounds are down like 80% from what they were in April.
what BB?
Same. We have stopped all lateral recruitment, and somewhat bloated now at VP/D level, with one MD not bringing in anything new at all. All post-2020 hires. A friend at another EB stated that their D/MD headcount went up by 50% and their deal volumes/revenues are approximately 50% down for 1H2022 y-o-y. Wouldn't be surprised if banks use downturn as an excuse to cull again.
If you are an analyst or associate, should probably be fine. I would guess where you will likely feel it is significantly smaller bonuses. The real fat lies in underperforming MDs/Directors. Entry level labor is still relatively cheap.
Junior people may just have lower bonuses
I feel like it would be hard to fire analysts especially at firms that have half the class size or less returning for a second year.
Depends on turnover rate and intern offers. I'd expect us to lower our intern offer rate and A2A offers. Doubt any current ASO or Analysts get let go. There will still be normal attrition. Also, I think most large banks are in a hiring freeze.
Lower intern offer rates and more importantly A2A offers (of presumably good proven talent), given heightened attrition in IB?
If you’re at a BB, yes. If you’re at a smaller bank who is trying to grow and can see past this and can also shift gears to distressed companies, I wouldn’t worry.
wouldnt a BB be more resistant
Market share was probably the highest it's been for the smaller players in 2021.
Transaction volume has tried up, so BB's are now moving down-market and competing aggressively on deals they would have passed on last year. Smaller players get squeezed.
At BBs if I had to guess.. no analyst layoffs, bottom 10% of ASO/VP and anyone above who is missing their targets
These comments seem on the money. Interesting to think about, would imagine the forces driving down volume and revenue levels won't necessarily disappear and allow the market to snap back into place at a level somewhere between 2021 and 2019 (agree that 21 was an anomaly and excluding 2020 given muddying factors.) At one point assume investors will be comfortable with the downward inflation trend and expected Fed actions and comfortable with combined effects of the two, volatility will decline, and levels will pick back up (I don't think the Russia / Ukraine situation is a massive cause of overall uncertainty anymore.) There are other factors I'm missing that are holding things back, but I think plenty of the factors that made 2021 so strong will also be present. So will be curious to see if these are enough to beat out the tail on inflation, etc. issues that are crushing 2022 and make 2023 a decent year. My guess is they will, that the rest of 2022 will be a wash, then 2023 won't be too far off of where 2022 would've been with just the natural hangover from 2021 and not the other stymying factors that came into play this year (although obviously inflation was destined to happen.)
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