Are we already in a recession? When do you think we exit a recession?
I'd mistakenly thought the rule for recessions was 2 consecutive qtrs are declining GDP but apparently this is just a rule of thumb. Some people are saying we're already in a recession right now, but not sure whether that's true or not. What do you all think?
Also when do you think we exit such a recession? Seems historically most start to clear up from 8 months - 20 months. Do you think we leave the recession behind mid 2023 or late 2023?
Working in markets, it's ridiculous how muchpunished. Lot of fantastic companies that were trading at punchy but still reasonable valuations are down 60-70%. Can't imagine how much lower this goes, S&P is down -20% from highs now as well. Long run historical avg of S&P is around 14-15x NTM P/E, right now we're at 16x so arguably not too much downside from here given forces affecting us are more transitory vs. structural. Though who honestly knows...