GME / Wallstreet Bets

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Comments (365)

  • Research Associate in HF - Event
Jan 22, 2021 - 4:49pm

pretty simple: read about mismatch in # of borrowable shares vs. true non-stagnant float vs. shorted shares, what happened in 2008 with Porsche/Volkswagen and how some underestimate the power of many tens or hundreds of thousands of retail accounts, being assisted by HFTs, buying anywhere from $5000 to $1mm+ of this shit during mania moment in market.

Jan 27, 2021 - 3:39am

S3 Partners has short interest of available float still WAY above 100%...

How exactly does this work?

  • 2
Jan 28, 2021 - 11:54pm

No, SEC is strict on naked shorts.

Let's say you own 100 shares of BA. And then let's say you lend your 100 shares to me so I can sell them short. I go ahead and sell those 100 shares to Jack. Jack is brilliant like you, and he proceeds to do the same thing: he lends his shares to Jane, and Jane sells those 100 shares short to Jill. 

Throughout this whole process, there's only 100 shares, but there have been two short transactions. Mathematically, it looks like 200 shares have been shorted. Jane and I would each need to buy 100 shares -- there were two short transactions, so now there must be two buy transactions -- to cover our positions. Normally, when there's a lot of time between transactions, that's not a problem (Jane buys back her 100 shares, returns them to Jack, I buy back my 100 shares from Jack, return them to you); but in a short squeeze, Jane and I are trying to buy 200 shares when only 100 actually exist. Note at no point, though, were the shares naked.

The reserve requirement / money multiplier functions similarly to expand or contract money supply. 

Jan 22, 2021 - 4:59pm

I don't know the actual parties involved, but a friend of mine at a MM speculated that the spike noon-1 was someone's fund getting blown up. Fs to pay respect boys.

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Jan 28, 2021 - 2:16pm

Multi-manager. Platforms where multiple PMs manage independent leveraged sleeves of capital with strict draw-down and vol requirements like Millennium, Citadel, Exodus, P72, etc.

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  • 2
Jan 28, 2021 - 2:01pm

They are saying that they are locked out because the hedge funds contacted the brokers and locked them out purposefully.  

Where I am confused is.  It looks like the GME is so illiquid and the reditors have broken the market.  If the market is broken, then you need to halt trading to fix it (ie circuit breakers as one example).  I agree that if they are just blocking them out to block out traders that's wrong.  but if all these shares are trading and not  enough liquidity is in the market to clear orders what happens. I imagine fixed contracts need to trade first.  thus Options and Shorts get filled first then you can repoen to buying.  I know usually orders are a first come first serve, but it seems fishy that no one would step in to try and assist the market with liquidity.    

  • Analyst 2 in S&T - Other
Jan 22, 2021 - 8:05pm

The shit is hilarious, I don't get how some of these people won't get SEC cucked. Legitimately pumping this stock 50%+ in a single day and absolutely shredding whoever had shorts on.

My guess is that borrows were virtually non existent mid day and institutionals were trying to get anything long on they could. Also LMAO at the reddit post today telling people to opt out of any securities borrowing programs with brokers

  • Analyst 2 in HF - Macro
Jan 22, 2021 - 11:31pm

they won't though.... look up lumber liquidators situation ~1 year ago... same thing on a much smaller scale.... you think the SEC in today's day and age is going after retail investors posting memes and pumping stocks?

Jan 23, 2021 - 12:56pm

I'm sure MMs have set up some controls after Friday. This is pure comedy though. Full retardation from reddit yolo'ers could potentially save the company....if they take advantage of this and sell stock right now at these prices they could easily wipe out all the debt. 

Controversial
  • Analyst 3+ in PE - Other
Jan 23, 2021 - 2:16pm

WSBers are just a factor of the momentum, the driving force is ECOM Stud Daddy Ryan Cohen 🚀🚀🚀 Read up on what he did with Chewy and what some of the turnaround theses for GME look like with him at the helm.

Edit: Toss more shit you hedgies, you got caught with your flank exposed by a bunch of retail investors armed with stimulus checks and free time. You should feel embarrassed, and I will thoroughly enjoy buying a new Lambo this weekend courtesy of your LPs. I hope none of you were expecting bonuses ;)

Jan 28, 2021 - 5:54am

This is ridiculous. There is no turnaround for GME... it is the "blockbuster" of 2021. They have 5,500 plus stores dedicated to selling video games, which will be 99% digital in a few years. What is left, silly gaming merchandise and esports jerseys? You don't need 5,500 stores for that...

Feb 5, 2021 - 12:59pm

WSBers are just a factor of the momentum, the driving force is ECOM Stud Daddy Ryan Cohen 🚀🚀🚀 Read up on what he did with Chewy and what some of the turnaround theses for GME look like with him at the helm.

Edit: Toss more shit you hedgies, you got caught with your flank exposed by a bunch of retail investors armed with stimulus checks and free time. You should feel embarrassed, and I will thoroughly enjoy buying a new Lambo this weekend courtesy of your LPs. I hope none of you were expecting bonuses ;)

Where's your Lambo? 
Hopefully you still have internet connection at the homeless shelter 

Funniest
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jan 23, 2021 - 3:02pm

I find it absolutely hilarious that a bunch of retarded psychos on reddit are blowing up legitimate investors at hfs with this shit. imagine spending your entire life honing your craft of investing, only to have a bunch of maniacs meme a stock to the moon and wreck you

Jan 30, 2021 - 4:31am

Well on the contrary...

“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Jan 27, 2021 - 3:19am

I find it absolutely hilarious that a bunch of retarded psychos on reddit are blowing up legitimate investors at hfs with this shit. imagine spending your entire life honing your craft of investing, only to have a bunch of maniacs meme a stock to the moon and wreck you

If you're getting your fund blown up by a bunch of children on Reddit, you're a fucking hack and deserve to have your career wrecked.

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  • 1
Jan 27, 2021 - 7:53pm

This comment makes me LOL every time I read it.

It's like efficient market hypothesis gave way to YOLO market hypothesis, and nobody knows what to do anymore.

  • Analyst 3+ in PE - Other
Jan 28, 2021 - 10:09am

Yes, they've been increasing their short position heavily. Stock has so much further to fall now and they think they can fight the sentiment. This just increases the impact of a squeeze though, so much for being smart managers. I guess they didn't pay attention to Tesla.

Jan 24, 2021 - 1:04am

I think it's hilarious. Some guy on there turned $50k into $11M, no joke. (Reddit.com/u/deepfuckingvalue)

But unfortunately the SEC is going to get involved with this at some point and WSB will be shut down by the end of the year. They've flown too close to the sun by getting all this attention in the mainstream media.

  • Analyst 2 in HF - Macro
Jan 24, 2021 - 11:21am

You think the SEC is going to try to pop a hole in retail investors enthusiasm about the market? That would just feed the idea that it's not a level playing field - exactly what the current administration doesn't want

Jan 27, 2021 - 12:54am

Not exactly. The role of the SEC is to bring legitimacy and stability to the market, which this provides the opposite of. Money Stuff had a great blurb on this today, I highly recommend you check this out. The SEC probably won't pursue this, but they do have an actual case.

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jan 24, 2021 - 9:27am

and you have professors still claiming markets are efficient 

Jan 26, 2021 - 10:15pm

This is actually nothing like the LTCM bailout. The LTCM bailout was orchestrated to keep the financial system from collapsing, the reason for this bailout is so that Melvin has enough capital to stave off the squeeze and continue making money for Cohen and Griffin as they had already invested in Melvin previously.

Jan 26, 2021 - 3:33pm

Might as well be already. Getting a bailout is the ultimate shame for a hf, and the fact that this one is so public is even worse. If this squeeze doesn't obliterate them (which, after the activities of today is a reasonable scenario), they'd have to make some pretty fucking amazing returns quickly to not have their LP's pull out as soon as they can (which may be a while, but a slow death is a death all the same).

Imagine being the head of some teacher's pension fund and losing all their retirements on fucking gamestop lmao.

Jan 26, 2021 - 3:00pm

This is the tail risk he was selling with trades like that and making his position public. Maybe a great investor but risk management and trading skills are just as important. Probably deserves to be out of business for arrogantly holding on and not stopping out a very long time ago.  It doesn't matter if you are right if you can't stay in the game long enough to realize your thesis.  That is a big thing that people do not understand on this forum - implementation, trading, risk management are why PMs get paid so much.

Jan 28, 2021 - 6:59am

PeRmAnEnTiNtErN

Aww yes I am sure the WSB crowd is managing risk so well right now.  

They truly are. They are collectively distributing risk over a huge number of people, it's excellent risk management.

“Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do”
  • 1
Jan 28, 2021 - 12:38pm

I said this above:

I think the key differentiator is 1. the fact that mass media picked up on this, creating a positive feedback loop of retail investors pouring in with FOMO 2. Discontent with institutional investors during the pandemic as millions lose jobs and die, while Wall Street has a record year. Once institutional money sells off their positions in GME and collects their risk-free leveraged gains (thanks to retail traders), you'll see a ton of people lose their savings overnight, scaring off people from doing this again for a while.

Jan 26, 2021 - 4:01pm

Everyone on this website will shit on wallstreetbets bc we work for the companies in which all these institutional investors work with the hedge funds, etc. Now that retail investors made a quick buck, they are seen as stupid or dumb. And I know I'll get monkey shit bc most of everybody on here is defending rich people than the working class trying to also make money as elites who invest in these funds been manipulating the markets for decades. Stop trying to make an argument of retail vs institutional. Institutional investors pushed the stock down as they been shorting it for a while now and now that you have kids with Robinhood accounts making huge returns on options, I find this just hilarious how tables are turning.

Jan 26, 2021 - 4:26pm

Its absolutely real investing... You just need to recognize the game theory and market psychology behind it. They found something they could exploit and they are doing so. 

"real investors" do this all the time. no one understands everything in the market. These people just understand slightly less. 

  • Analyst 2 in IB - Ind
Jan 26, 2021 - 5:45pm

not to mention the person they took down worked for SAC Capital

yeah...im totally sure Steve and all his star SAC Capital boys were COMPLETELY unaware of all the insider trading going on there.   Totally removed.

couldnt happen to a more deserving crew of characters (100% ded fkn srs)

  • Associate 3 in HF - EquityHedge
Jan 26, 2021 - 11:45pm

Lol I think you have it the other way around. Look at the ratio of SB to MS on the posts calling for Melvin to blow up (I think Pizz got like 12-0 or better in the other thread). Truth is we are (were) all a little jelly of them. That's where the schadenfreude comes from. Watching people who were soaring above us get cut down to size. It's ugly but hey that's humans for you.

  • NA in IB-M&A
Jan 26, 2021 - 4:47pm

LMAO Melvin deserves to die. Imagine managing state employee pension funds of average people and having naked short risk on and advertising your position. Fuck this guy what an idiot risk manager. 

  • NA in IB-M&A
Jan 26, 2021 - 5:45pm

Basically they tried one of the riskiest types of trades on an illiquid and volatile stock, and now they are getting it shoved up their ass

Jan 26, 2021 - 5:16pm

LMAO Melvin deserves to die. Imagine managing state employee pension funds of average people and having naked short risk on and advertising your position. Fuck this guy what an idiot risk manager. 

This 100%. Imagine having analysts cranking away on models 6 days a weekn in theoffice (they had a brutal ib like culture) only to lose it all on naked shorts on a video game store.  What a bunch of losers (srs).

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  • Intern in PE - Growth
Jan 26, 2021 - 6:47pm

Cut him some slack. Risk management wasn't really needed for Plotkin at SAC when he had insider info on all his positions

Jan 27, 2021 - 1:37am

Fuck that guy and his 6 Miami homes. He's finally facing some accountability for his reckless investments with ordinary people's money, and I'm here for it. Steve's "star protégé" lmao

Jan 26, 2021 - 5:17pm

Melvin capital isn't going to die. It's dead. Murdered if they didn't cover already. Anyone who is short who didn't cover is dead. Every single option solid before 1/25 is in the money on Friday. EVERY SINGLE ONE. If you are naked short, your dead on Friday. Actually every short sold before today is currently ITM, at current prices. 

The answer to your question is 1) network 2) get involved 3) beef up your resume 4) repeat -happypantsmcgee

WSO is not your personal search function.

  • 5
  • Intern in IB - Gen
Jan 26, 2021 - 8:53pm

I bought some very overpriced puts yesterday... not looking great rn

  • Associate 1 in IB-M&A
Jan 26, 2021 - 6:46pm

Do we know that Melvin was running this short naked? You would've thought people  would learn after Ackman's HLF flop. Not defending Melvin but I guess analysts don't run a sensitivity analysis of PnL impact when the stock goes +500%...

Jan 26, 2021 - 7:18pm

Caught a whiff on this on Reddit in early January and bought $20 calls that expired worthless on 1/8. Whoops. 

you didn't make good choices; you had good choices

  • 5
Jan 26, 2021 - 8:14pm

[email protected]

Mmm what would they be worth post the Elon tweet?

I bought $250 of them for 59 cents a piece. The same call option with this Friday's expiration closed at $125 today. So that's about $250 -> $50,000.

you didn't make good choices; you had good choices

  • 2
Jan 27, 2021 - 3:30am

You think that's bad? I bought a handful of Jan 2022 calls with a strike price of $12 for $0.73 back on March 10 2020...

I sold them on March 28th 2020 for $5.20...

:s

  • 1
Jan 27, 2021 - 11:22am

CuriousCharacter

You think that's bad? I bought a handful of Jan 2022 calls with a strike price of $12 for $0.73 back on March 10 2020...

I sold them on March 28th 2020 for $5.20...

:s

a 7x return is never a bad thing! (except when it could have been 30,000x)

you didn't make good choices; you had good choices

  • 1
  • Intern in IB-M&A
Jan 26, 2021 - 7:25pm

You would think that Cohen/Griffin -- as part of agreement re: infusion -- made Plotkin hedge his original short position... right?   

Jan 28, 2021 - 4:58pm

could they have bought up the equivalent so that when the squeeze happens, they can make it a perfectly smooth transaction 

path less traveled

Jan 26, 2021 - 8:04pm

HF guys fucking retail for years get fucked - poetic.

  • 4
Jan 26, 2021 - 8:57pm

This idea that it was all random kids on WSB is totally wrong.  You think that professionals didn't smell blood too here?  Classically stupid to basically announce exactly where the price would need to go to in order to blow them up and complete the stop out after putting it in the WSJ.  I almost fell off my chair  when I read that.

Jan 27, 2021 - 12:58am

To be fair, it's a common tactic of funds to announce short positions, because that usually helps you. Just didn't expect the retail investors to meme it, and other institutional investors seeing an opportunity to utilize the retail traders to leverage their positions.

Jan 26, 2021 - 9:50pm

Don't know much about the options market so can someone dissect what is to happen? Understand most of the calls expire this Friday and if it dosen't go below $60 (that was the max strike then right?), the MMs have to buy back c.8m shares in the open market next week?

  • Analyst 2 in PE - LBOs
Jan 27, 2021 - 2:02am

Is there any way to know what % of the options are going to expire Friday? Forcing the buying of the stock at that market price?

How would we know how long that window is and what to sell the stock at?

Tendies for all, let's go to the moon boys.

Jan 28, 2021 - 5:02pm

if some smart hedge fund guy could clear this up, that would be amazing

path less traveled

Jan 27, 2021 - 2:54am

Interesting not to see anyone talking about the RH, Citadel, and WSB triangle here. All the retail investors on WSB trading options on RH who then sells those orders to Citadel milliseconds before they are filled to steamroll Citadel's HFT algos which just takes this to the moon 🚀. Perfect storm and Citadel is going to be the biggest winner off the whole deal lol

Jan 27, 2021 - 6:08am

What is the math that they are they are biggest winner? They are already down 2bn on their Melvin trade.  You think front running HFT makes up for that?  I don't see how they don't next take a huge loss here.

Jan 28, 2021 - 2:24am

Are they though? According to BBG, Cohen put $200m into Melvin at the start, which was worth $1bn pre-crash. So even after a 30% drop that's 3.5x MoM in 6-7 years or low-20s net IRR... 

DYEL
Jan 27, 2021 - 6:38am

Can someone explain how is short % at over 100%? Like how can you short more than the number of shares available? Are shorters lending their shares to be shorted by others?

Though its great drama to see SAC dumping funds into Melvin Capital while wsb-ers are still memeing the stock to the moon and back hahahahaha. I really enjoy their posts on rallying people to not give up and go against the establishment lol. Even better was couple of days back when one of their mods went rogue opened a twitter account on behalf of r/wsb, the users turned on him/her and the the sub went private for a couple of hours. 

  • 1
Jan 27, 2021 - 7:54am

I asked the same question before and never got a real answer.

Ihor @ S3 partners said the short interest above 100% is due to "synthetic longs."

  • Associate 3 in PE - LBOs
Jan 27, 2021 - 8:51am

Say I have 100 shares, I lend them to you and you sell them short to someone else. That person then takes their shares and lends them to someone else who then also sells them short. Now there is 200 shares short on only 100 shares of float.

Jan 27, 2021 - 8:52am

*Let's say there is 1 share outstanding of a company owned by a BNY/Mellon client.

*Hedge fund Client A shorts 1 share and we borrow from BNY/Mellon.

*We deliver to State Street's beneficial owner who Client A shorted to.

*Hedge fund Client B shorts 1 share & we borrow from State Street and we deliver to Northern Trust's client.

*Now you have 2 shares publicly reported as being short. You have 3 longs but only 1 share of float.

Jan 27, 2021 - 9:01am

1) Melvin is/was a 13bn fund. They've put up 30-40% returns annually for 5-7 years. You guys can dance on their graves all you want but a hell of a lot of people there have taken 10s / 100s of millions out of there until now. So for legacy sake and having a going concern business, it may matter to them if Melvin lives or dies, but most people who have worked there a few years are still and always will be way richer than most people on this forum. 
 

2) This can actually happen quite easily. First way is just continued re-lending of shares -  person x is long. Person y borrows and sells short to person Z. Person Z doesn't know anything other than they're long shares. They lend those shares out for income and person A borrows them and shorts them to person B  (who buys). The chain goes on and on. 
 

The other way is the synthetic long via options that can be used to create borrow. 
 

Jan 27, 2021 - 9:55am

HFPM

1) Melvin is/was a 13bn fund. They've put up 30-40% returns annually for 5-7 years. You guys can dance on their graves all you want but a hell of a lot of people there have taken 10s / 100s of millions out of there until now. So for legacy sake and having a going concern business, it may matter to them if Melvin lives or dies, but most people who have worked there a few years are still and always will be way richer than most people on this forum. 
 

2) This can actually happen quite easily. First way is just continued re-lending of shares -  person x is long. Person y borrows and sells short to person Z. Person Z doesn't know anything other than they're long shares. They lend those shares out for income and person A borrows them and shorts them to person B  (who buys). The chain goes on and on. 
 

The other way is the synthetic long via options that can be used to create borrow. 
 

Admittedly I'm not at a HF myself (in PE) - whilst I agree 30% annual returns are impressive, the fact they can lose 30-50% of their total capital in the first few weeks of the year suggests they had appalling risk management. And so on a risk-adjusted basis 30% suddenly doesn't sound quite so good - after all, I'm sure there are a lot of funds out there that could make 20-30% by taking outsize/extreme risks like seems to have happened here.

Also whilst a lot of funds had horrible losses last year (e.g. Bridgewater -30% for 2020) that was firstly over a full calendar year, and secondly due to the coronavirus outbreak. Melvin's losses on the other hand have all occurred since January 1 (at least according to the WSJ), so in a relatively calm market environment over the last few weeks they've managed to lose probably half of their capital. In my opinion that is pretty atrocious performance however they spin it.

Jan 27, 2021 - 11:34am

Out of curiosity, where are you seeing BW down 30% for 2020? Pure Alpha is down anywhere from 5-15% depending on vol level. All Weather was up over 9%.

Just remember: it's not a lie if you believe it.

  • Associate 3 in HF - EquityHedge
Jan 27, 2021 - 10:48am

HFPM

1) Melvin is/was a 13bn fund. They've put up 30-40% returns annually for 5-7 years. You guys can dance on their graves all you want but a hell of a lot of people there have taken 10s / 100s of millions out of there until now. So for legacy sake and having a going concern business, it may matter to them if Melvin lives or dies, but most people who have worked there a few years are still and always will be way richer than most people on this forum. 
 

Lol pretty sure this is the very reason so many are gleefully stomping on their grave as you put it.

Also a bit sad that the ultimate measure of success for many in our industry is how much we can extract from our LPs. Any tips for weeding out people who think like that (on both the PM and analyst side)? I don't want to work for or with people like that

Jan 27, 2021 - 11:03am

The answer to your question is 1) network 2) get involved 3) beef up your resume 4) repeat -happypantsmcgee

WSO is not your personal search function.

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