How will the results of the election affect Wall Street and the overall economy?

Title says it all, i'm very curious to hear people's thoughts. How will the Trump presidency affect the markets / Wall Street?

Comments (112)

 
Nov 30,2016

Wall Street will react predictably in the short term.

Long term it doesn't fucking matter. Financial policy is set by Congress, NOT the president so expect business as usual there.

In terms of other things the die is more or less cast. Social security becomes a net negative cash flow next year regardless, the interest rate environment is unsustainable regardless, and governments worldwide are going to start aggressively hunting capital regardless(because they're broke).

Bottom line we're going to shit either way. It just depends whether we're going to do it with humor or with class.

 
Nov 30,2016

what are your thoughts now that the Republicans have Congress and Trump?http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/republican-l...

 
Nov 30,2016

Easy answer--go check the markets right now (stock futures, mexican peso, etc.).

 
Nov 30,2016

Doesn't mean jack shit for the long term. Remember when people thought it was the end of the world back in January?

 
Nov 30,2016

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but M&A environment doesn't seem to look too promising after this? I would say this with confidence in most other situations, but given that M&A picked up post-Brexit it seems like a toss up.

 
Nov 30,2016

Nothing's gonna happen in the long term. Trust the media to get people worked up over nothing.

 
Best Response
Nov 30,2016

the biggest drivers of the markets are not who occupies the white house. here's what to expect, assuming the Donald doesn't fly off the handle and upper deck the King of Saudi Arabia's golden toilet...

  1. against a backdrop of improving economic growth, rates will rise. this was in place before last night's result. I put the 10y at 4% by end of 2018, write it down. this means that bond funds will take a hit but unless there's panic selling, it will just be losses due to opportunity cost. laddered portfolios and higher relative coupons will perform fine.
  2. stock market will continue to have 1-2 10-20% corrections a year. we had 2 this year, 1 last year, with high valuations and weak guidance, expect volatility to continue.
  3. that being said, expect 5-10% annual returns for the next 3 years as corporations grow their way out of high multiples and the risk premium over bonds lowers as rates rise.
  4. expect consumer spending to pick up. lower tax rates across the board generally means more money in people's pockets to spend, and since that's over 65% of GDP, this could be meaningful
  5. also expect infrastructure spending to pick up, adding to GDP just by pure math (remember gov't spending goes into this equation).
  6. expect a repeal of obamacare. with a GOP sweep, this is all but inevitable. for the sake of the uninsured or barely insured, I'd hope that there are state programs to help the needy, but this will make the cost of running a small business go down, potentially increasing hiring, but at a minimum putting money back in some people's pockets and being generally good for healthcare stocks.
  7. expect lots of rhetoric around a trade war, but it's impossible to say at this point. my hope is that Donald was mostly talk and that we don't close our borders, because most of the US's greatest companies are multinationals and any increased tariffs could hurt earnings meaningfully. that being said, if in the new tax plan there's a mechanism for repatriation of offshore cash, companies could boost capex and in the future offset earnings lost to tariffs with greater productivity. I'm playing a wait & see with this however, still too early to tell.
  8. hard to say on banks and M&A. if Trump repeals Dodd Frank, private credit and alternative lending will tank, and banks will be able to lend again, making working at a BB much more glamorous. if Trump appoints pro competition people to the Justice Dept that don't want mega deals, I'd expect more of the same. however, if he appoints people who don't particularly care about Bayer/Monsanto, ATT/TW, etc., M&A could pick up meaningfully assuming offshore cash is allowed to come home. good time to be a banker.
  9. USD strength. this is a negative for multinationals and int'l stocks that trade largely with the US. also negative for EM equity and debt for major US trading partners. all of this assumes the Donald will get tough on trade. the way to play this is stick with mid & small caps, most of their revenue will be onshore (unlike say PG where over 50% is offshore), so they will be better insulated.
  10. what remains to be seen is how one party control will play out. yes, policy will get passed, but how will this affect markets? if you look at averages (not perfect by any means), an all red gov't gives you below average returns in stocks. my thoughts on valuation kinda agree with this, so if we have 3-7% returns on stocks for the next 4 years, I wouldn't be surprised.
  11. I think now the possibility of Marine Le Pen getting elected in France is much higher. Sarkozy will not have a cakewalk, and this speaks volumes about Western Europe. if the Bundestag goes populist in 2017, look out Eurozone, you're fucked. @Matrick @GoodBread feel free to disagree, just my $0.02.

most of the negativity around Donald has little to do with economics and a lot to do with his demeanor and mannerisms. if he does decide to default on US debt (doubtful), that would be bad. if he does close our borders (doubtful), that will be bad. however, if his anti trade legislation is offset by pro growth tax policies and repatriation of offshore cash combined with more after tax dollars in people's pockets due to no more ACA, we could see a nice bounce in the economy.

tldr: people freaked out, Donald isn't an ideal choice by any means from a societal/social perspective, but from an investor's perspective, there's a lot of upside opportunity.

 
Nov 30,2016

Good post.

That said I don't buy the trade war. If you go back pre-election and look at some of the full statements here he doesn't seem to actually want to repeal NAFTA, he just thinks its ridiculous that China has protectionist policies against the US(so he can't won Real Estate in HK/Beijing) while the US has none against China. I'd expect him to be lobbying hard against Asian protectionism.

 
Nov 30,2016

So...how's the book of yours coming along? ;)

How do you think the election affects the housing market for potential buyers?

 
Nov 30,2016

assuming tax policy passes unabated...offsetting affects from lower taxes meaning more cash in people's pockets offset by potential overall tax reform (assuming mortgage interest deduction goes away).

I don't think it affects it much, housing prices are driven by different factors, I think the biggest head/tailwind you have is demographics. as the economy plugs along, millenials (biggest generation approaching homebuying age) will buy houses regardless of trump, harambe, or deez nuts being POTUS

 
Nov 30,2016

also, still no book deal haha. I bet if you added up all my posts on WSO, it'd barely be 20 pages however.

 
Nov 30,2016

Great post, thanks for talking me off the ledge. Still doesn't feel quite real.

 
Nov 30,2016

Do you think that this election will have an impact on rates rising? Rates increasing in the long-run seemed to be consensus (to some extent) prior to the election. Does Trump change the rate outlook at all? Or is it a case of rates were always going to rise.

 
Nov 30,2016

rates will rise for one reason: the economy is improving. that being said, they will not spike because we're still possessing higher rates than dev europe or jpn.

 
Nov 30,2016

+1 SB for informative thoughts :)

...

 
Nov 30,2016
thebrofessor:

8. hard to say on banks and M&A. if Trump repeals Dodd Frank, private credit and alternative lending will tank, and banks will be able to lend again, making working at a BB much more glamorous. if Trump appoints pro competition people to the Justice Dept that don't want mega deals, I'd expect more of the same. however, if he appoints people who don't particularly care about Bayer/Monsanto, ATT/TW, etc., M&A could pick up meaningfully assuming offshore cash is allowed to come home. good time to be a banker.

I really hope you're right. Does anyone know of the likelihood dodd frank actually gets repealed? and prop trading returns?

 
Nov 30,2016

He's said he will, I think it's too early to call

 
Nov 30,2016

Regarding point 9, Aren't we expected to see a weakening in USD? Given Trump's talk about China's currency manipulation and his stance on trade, wouldn't this lead to potentially less foreign capital inflows and thus a weaker USD? Please correct me if these points are incorrect.

 
Nov 30,2016

My thinking there is it depends on the index you look at. Our currency could be strong relative to EM because of balance of trade relative to the US (we import from them). It could be strong relative to the basket of 6 because our rates remain better than abroad, assuming trump doesn't call into question our propensity to pay our debts. This probably would've happened without trump, but if he starts a trade war and hurts our international neighbors, since we're net importers our currency should benefit

 
Nov 30,2016

Sb'd, thanks for the follow-up.

The thesis here is that if Trump institutes a trade war you're thinking that foreign capital will increasingly be allocated to the US 1) given the higher rate environment and 2) capital will be diverted away from our trade partners due to the potential protectionist policies making exporting supply for these countries more costly.

These factors will offset the rising prices and dollar depreciation created through the protectionist policies.

So, net-net our currency will strengthen.

 
Nov 30,2016

more or less.

what I'm saying is keep in mind currency is a relative game. if our EM trading partners' economies go down because we trade less, their currencies will suffer, making ours look better on a relative basis.

DM int'l currencies (basket of 6) will look worse relative to USD mostly because of capital allocation favoring US given our higher rate environment.

 
Nov 30,2016

Hi Brofessor! I have a question. Do you think havingTrump elected could potentially put at risk an offer that I have at Goldman Sachs? (It is for Operations in Salt Lake City) Thanks for your input

 
Nov 30,2016

A caveat to his tax plans and infrastructure spending (which are both expansionary fiscal policies) is how the two will be financed? Trump's fiscal policy may balloon the debt more and increase the public and private debt burdens.

 
Nov 30,2016

Completely agree, he's given very little info as to how this would be paid for

 
Nov 30,2016

"6. expect a repeal of obamacare. with a GOP sweep, this is all but inevitable. for the sake of the uninsured or barely insured, I'd hope that there are state programs to help the needy, but this will make the cost of running a small business go down, potentially increasing hiring, but at a minimum putting money back in some people's pockets and being generally good for healthcare stocks."

why would this be good for healthcare stocks? less people would be insured which brings instability to their payer mix and thus revenues and earnings, no? Maybe from a compliance/quality standards perspective they could cut corners and boast earnings?

curious to hear more on this

 
Nov 30,2016

No, it would remove the necessity to be a part of the exchanges which have largely been a negative for earnings, look at unitedhealthcare in particular. Also one can assume that ACAs repeal is indicative of a favorable regulatory environment in healthcare (pharma, mes device), and if those companies retain pricing power, it will be good for earnings. What could suffer is healthcare reits however as whoever was covered under ACA uses the system less, but I don't invest there so not as well versed

 
Nov 30,2016

I guess I was talking about earnings at the provider level ie health systems and other facilities, which would be negatively impacted by less people being covered. In reference to insurers, regardless of how earnings have been lately, PPACA mandates everyone buy their product, meaning they can always increase premiums to boost earnings, no? I am pretty sure premiums can only be adjusted at the time of enrollment, so if their risk pool is shit (since they can't deny for pre-existing conditions under PPACA), I imagine they will take a hit on earnings in current year and adjust premiums for the next.

I am not sure of how PPACA influences pharma and other healthcare oriented industries, but pharma in the US is a cluster fuck. I am not in favor of price ceilings, but there are ways to increase competition to keep pricing reasonable. That's a rabbit hole I don't feel like going down

 
Nov 30,2016

no argument on pharma being a cluster fuck, but as the world is today, ACA repeal/rejiggering will be good for those stocks.

you're right on insurers, that's exactly my point. when I say healthcare stocks, I mean insurers, pharma, med device, not healthcare REITs and hospitals, the economics of those are different.

 
Nov 30,2016

Don't points 3 and 10 contradict one another? Or am I missing something? Could you elaborate @thebrofessor

The fool thinks himself to be a wise man, while the wise man thinks himself to be a fool.

 
Nov 30,2016

good observation. I should've clarified that my base case is 5-10% but I wouldn't be surprised if it was lower, like 3-7%

 
Jun 30,2017
thebrofessor:

the biggest drivers of the markets are not who occupies the white house. here's what to expect, assuming the Donald doesn't fly off the handle and upper deck the King of Saudi Arabia's golden toilet...

    - against a backdrop of improving economic growth, rates will rise. this was in place before last night's result. I put the 10y at 4% by end of 2018, write it down. this means that bond funds will take a hit but unless there's panic selling, it will just be losses due to opportunity cost. laddered portfolios and higher relative coupons will perform fine.
    - stock market will continue to have 1-2 10-20% corrections a year. we had 2 this year, 1 last year, with high valuations and weak guidance, expect volatility to continue.
    - that being said, expect 5-10% annual returns for the next 3 years as corporations grow their way out of high multiples and the risk premium over bonds lowers as rates rise.
    - expect consumer spending to pick up. lower tax rates across the board generally means more money in people's pockets to spend, and since that's over 65% of GDP, this could be meaningful
    - also expect infrastructure spending to pick up, adding to GDP just by pure math (remember gov't spending goes into this equation).
    - expect a repeal of obamacare. with a GOP sweep, this is all but inevitable. for the sake of the uninsured or barely insured, I'd hope that there are state programs to help the needy, but this will make the cost of running a small business go down, potentially increasing hiring, but at a minimum putting money back in some people's pockets and being generally good for healthcare stocks.
    - expect lots of rhetoric around a trade war, but it's impossible to say at this point. my hope is that Donald was mostly talk and that we don't close our borders, because most of the US's greatest companies are multinationals and any increased tariffs could hurt earnings meaningfully. that being said, if in the new tax plan there's a mechanism for repatriation of offshore cash, companies could boost capex and in the future offset earnings lost to tariffs with greater productivity. I'm playing a wait & see with this however, still too early to tell.
    - hard to say on banks and M&A. if Trump repeals Dodd Frank, private credit and alternative lending will tank, and banks will be able to lend again, making working at a BB much more glamorous. if Trump appoints pro competition people to the Justice Dept that don't want mega deals, I'd expect more of the same. however, if he appoints people who don't particularly care about Bayer/Monsanto, ATT/TW, etc., M&A could pick up meaningfully assuming offshore cash is allowed to come home. good time to be a banker.
    - USD strength. this is a negative for multinationals and int'l stocks that trade largely with the US. also negative for EM equity and debt for major US trading partners. all of this assumes the Donald will get tough on trade. the way to play this is stick with mid & small caps, most of their revenue will be onshore (unlike say PG where over 50% is offshore), so they will be better insulated.
    - what remains to be seen is how one party control will play out. yes, policy will get passed, but how will this affect markets? if you look at averages (not perfect by any means), an all red gov't gives you below average returns in stocks. my thoughts on valuation kinda agree with this, so if we have 3-7% returns on stocks for the next 4 years, I wouldn't be surprised.
    - I think now the possibility of Marine Le Pen getting elected in France is much higher. Sarkozy will not have a cakewalk, and this speaks volumes about Western Europe. if the Bundestag goes populist in 2017, look out Eurozone, you're fucked. @Matrick @GoodBread feel free to disagree, just my $0.02.

most of the negativity around Donald has little to do with economics and a lot to do with his demeanor and mannerisms. if he does decide to default on US debt (doubtful), that would be bad. if he does close our borders (doubtful), that will be bad. however, if his anti trade legislation is offset by pro growth tax policies and repatriation of offshore cash combined with more after tax dollars in people's pockets due to no more ACA, we could see a nice bounce in the economy.

tldr: people freaked out, Donald isn't an ideal choice by any means from a societal/social perspective, but from an investor's perspective, there's a lot of upside opportunity.

I must say I just saw this and am quite offended.

 
 
Nov 30,2016

What I'm still not sure about is wall building and trade barriers. Do these happen? Paul Ryan is a pretty smart budget guy and knows his way around fiscal stuff, surely he'll be able to lead too much of a push against a real wall and real Chinese and Mexican trade barriers. Plus, Ryan and Trump sat down a while back so they have to have some form of an understanding on a way forward around those two issues.

"Loser terrorists" & "bad hombres"

"Typical candidates are those who attended a top-tier academic institution"
-Most job applications

 
 
Jun 30,2017

Don't even waste your time trying to trade the news.

 
Nov 30,2016

RIP MXN

I AM THE LIQUOR

 
 
Jun 30,2017
 
Nov 30,2016

another day, another dollar...

"I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough to have your own jet. Rich enough not to waste time. Fifty, a hundred million dollars, buddy. A player. Or nothing. "
-GG

 
 
Jun 30,2017

Almost nobody outside the US is in camp 2

 
Jun 30,2017
Patrick Batman:

Almost nobody outside the US is in camp 2

Brexiteers (aka a majority of Britains).

PS you can all stop pretending you think Trump is a biggot to try and sway the vote.

 
Jun 30,2017

Even most brexiteers do not understand how someone who is corrupt, accused of sexually assulting women, bragging about how he grabs women by the genitals, racist, xenophobic, not denouncing the endorsement of the KKK, convinced that climate change is a hoax and and and ... can be the president of the US.

Even if he might not follow up on most of his simply retarded remarks, this is a punch in the face for humanity. Even if he isn't a biggot, he sure loved behaving like one during his campaign.

Happy to receive MS from Trump fanboys for this post.

 
Jun 30,2017
Patrick Batman:

Even most brexiteers do not understand how someone who is corrupt, accused of sexually assulting women, bragging about how he grabs women by the genitals, racist, xenophobic, not denouncing the endorsement of the KKK, convinced that climate change is a hoax and and and ... can be the president of the US.

Even if he might not follow up on most of his simply retarded remarks, this is a punch in the face for humanity. Even if he isn't a biggot, he sure loves looking like one.

Happy to receive MS from Trump fanboys for this post.

No MS. You are the victim in all this. Hoaxed by the media. You should look into each of these stories more in depth.

Do you believe investor relations when they tell you their company is best-in-sector?

 
Jun 30,2017

I am biased by the people I know in the US and by the media I consume but this can only go to a certain degree.

It's not "investor relations" saying things - it's the comments the Donald makes himself. So are you telling me that his recordings, debates, speeches and interviews are a hoax by the media??

 
Jun 30,2017

I think you forgot Camp #4: "Not ideal, but what can you do? All the more reason to get excited for Yeezus in 2020."

I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough to have your own jet. Rich enough not to waste time. Fifty, a hundred million dollars, buddy. A player. Or nothing.

See my Blog & AMA

 
Jun 30,2017

"The man is a racist"

isn't every republican candidate and constituent?

I am pretty sure anyone worth a fuck does not care about someone's race. They only care about two things: will you be good for me? will you be bad for me?

 
Jun 30,2017

"The only colour these people care about is green."

I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough to have your own jet. Rich enough not to waste time. Fifty, a hundred million dollars, buddy. A player. Or nothing.

See my Blog & AMA

 
Jun 30,2017

Unbelievable is all I can say.

 
Jun 30,2017

They're all a bit surprised and a bit worried. They're trying to find non-issues and make them into serious areas of concern (e.g. that he's white).

Pretty much the idiocy you see in the majority of the American media.

 
Jun 30,2017

Here now they changed the tune a little bit, not worried about him unleashing a nuclear war, but apparently on shooting foreign tourists and people who live in the States, after all 'America hates foreigners" as a journalist already said. LOL

 
Jun 30,2017

4 - Wait and see what he can/can't do. If you're flipping out now you clearly don't understand the checks and balances put in place to prevent presidents from becoming dictators. The liberals who are crying and rioting in the streets are pretty pathetic and the fact they suddenly think all their rights will be stripped away is sad.

 
Jun 30,2017

True. To me it shows that some people don't really trust democracy (even with all the issues bla bla bla), unless of course their candidate wins, then people are supposed to trust the same democracy.

 
Jun 30,2017

I recommend reading Richard Neustad's book on "presidential power and the modern presidents" for anyone that doesn't understand the comment of @lordbendter

 
Nov 30,2016

Jamie Dimon is a stud.

Here is the letter he sent out in light of the election:

http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/read-the-letter-j-p-...
He should have run for President.

Winners bring a bigger bag than you do.
I have a degree in meritocracy.

 
 
Nov 30,2016

that's because Jamie is rational. Trump is a despicable human morally, but could be a stud for the economy, we'll see. he could end up being just as much of a dunce as he sounds, but Dimon wisely sees the bigger picture (good growth backdrop).

fear is rational if you think he'll build a wall and you're trying to get the rest of your family over here. fear is rational if you're a muslim trying to get your family over here or be able to move freely in and out of the country. fear is rational if you're a job outsourcer to china.

fear, however is not rational if you just don't "like" trump and you're upset because a hothead republican (it pains me to even put him in the same party as guys like Mitt Romney) got elected. most of this country is reacting with their hearts, when in reality, Donald Trump will not have an impact on the daily lives of most Americans (I think the same thing about Hillary, in case anyone's curious).

 
Jun 30,2017
 
Nov 30,2016

There will be wage growth, bigly. Illegals will be deported giving pay raises to people who have not had a pay raise(or consistent work) in ages. These people have the highest marginal propensity to spend and spend they will. Additionally, legal immigration will (thankfully) be lower along with a strong economy which will result in further wage growth and job security.

The balance of power will swing from the employer to the employee(marginally). I view this as being a positive to the economy because I believe wage growth begets GDP growth. Job security makes people feel better about themselves and their economic prospects thereby further spending increases. This may also give more confidence to Americans to have more kids which is obviously good for the economy and future generations.

My prediction is Trump will be the best president we've had since Ronald Reagan.

Learn to LOVE Trump in less than 3 minutes

 
 
Nov 30,2016

Hmmm... I think if you look at the underlying factors of your rhetoric, they actually point to a deceleration of wage growth and declining rate of consumption.

Consumption:

Given your example of deporting illegals and giving their jobs at a higher wage to "native" born Americans, these increased costs will eventually be passed to households in the form of higher prices. With an increase in the price of goods, households will have less real income to spend. This means that households will have a higher savings rate. The excess savings will either have to be exported or imports will have to be curtailed. Also, remember that the out-of-work Americans are still receiving welfare or unemployment and were still consuming anyways. Once back in the labor force the savings created by their employment will exceed any incremental consumption by the worker (given the parameter that wages < revenue of good / service).

Pretty much your example of the "native" American regaining his job and being America's growth engine is a pipe dream. All these shifts are transmitted. In this case, we'd actually see consumption rates fall (i.e. higher savings rate) as we pursued greater workforce employment. There are trade-offs for all these policies. The Brits leaving the EU are in this boat using this quasi-isolationist thinking. Will they be willing to face the trade-off that greater domestic production and thus domestic employment also means financial / consumption repression?

Wage Growth:

The United States currently has a technological advantage relative to the much of the world and thus is an exporter of skilled labor (e.g. software) and importer of capital-intensive goods.

This skilled labor (e.g. tech workers) has had their wages grow at an order of magnitude higher than unskilled labor (e.g. farm worker).

Given Trump's anti-immigration stance and quasi-protectionist stance on trade, capital and technological investments would have higher input costs. This would be in the form of higher salaries to attract a declining number of skilled tech workers and the incremental costs of tariffs foreign and thus disincentive firms to invest in the tools that would increase worker productivity and justify wages growing.

 
Nov 30,2016

not trying to be snarky, legit curious. how much of those manufacturing jobs have actually left because of overseas outsourcing? I'm of the opinion that the manufacturing jobs that are available moved south because of lower regulation and better employment law (right to work states like south carolina), and most of the jobs were actually lost because of automation/robots/technology. is Trump refuting that with data? is he just of a different opinion? or is he chiefly saying that the issue is it's cheaper to trade with other countries and America needs to make itself competitive again?

if it's the last of those, I'd like to see an argument to support that thesis, because I always assumed that even with neutral currency effects, it's more expensive to trade with us because we have higher requirements for standard of living. you put American manufacturing workers in squalor like Chinese factory workers, we suddenly get more competitive. but if you want a guy to be able to afford a 3br house with running water, HVAC, and a pickup truck, suddenly we're not so competitive. I just have to think the economics don't work, but I'm willing to listen if I'm missing something.

 
Jun 30,2017

His plan is double what hillarys was. Trumps a builder. I'd expect national building which will benefit both parties and their districts.

Guys a deal maker who was a life long democratic. I fully expect him to work across the isle and get shit.

I'm ploughing money into the market cause I expect an energized economy.

Masters in Finance HQ - The #1 site for everything related to the MSF degree!
MSFHQ

 
Jun 30,2017

any thoughts on the deficit his tax cuts combined with increased spending will cause and their effect on the economy? any thoughts on his trade policies?

 
Jun 30,2017

The "consensus" doesn't know what the hell it's talking about. There isn't enough information about what can be accomplished to have any understanding of what the impact will be of an unknown public policy. To the economic prognosticators--read my lips: all bills originate in the U.S. House of Representatives, not in the White House. Paul Ryan and Donald Trump have some agreement on public policy but by no means universal agreement.

 
Jun 30,2017

but what does this mean for wall street and financial regulation? http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/republican-l...

 
Nov 30,2016

What will happen to foreign nationals studying at US schools who have jobs / internship / FT offers at NYC investment banks? What can we do to plan ahead? I am afraid of losing my offer due to skilled worker visa changes, but then I see tweets like this and get confused.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/...

I appreciate any help/advice - thank you.

 
 
Nov 30,2016
nontargetmonkey96:

What will happen to foreign nationals studying at US schools who have jobs / internship / FT offers at NYC investment banks? What can we do to plan ahead? I am afraid of losing my offer due to skilled worker Visa changes, but then I see tweets like this and get confused.

I appreciate any help/advice - thank you.

You have absolutely nothing to worry about.

You aren't illegal. You are skilled. You aren't a criminal (afaik).

 
Jun 30,2017

If anyone tells you they know what Trump will do IF he becomes POTUS is lying.

The sensible people will do anything they can to fight against a Trump presidency. If all else fails, all you can do is lube up and prepare for what is to come.

 
Jun 30,2017

Idk what will happen when Trump becomes president.

But I'll start training just in case i get chosen for the Hunger games

 
Jun 30,2017
KHALEESI:

Idk what will happen when Trump becomes president.

But I'll start training just in case i get chosen for the Hunger games

That's the 2nd time today that I've heard a reference to the Hunger Games, if Trump becomes POTUS. It's scary and funny at the same time!!!

 
Jun 30,2017

The optimist in me says that our system of checks and balances will keep the most wheels-off scenarios from happening. The pessimist in me says this scheming orangutan will cause World War III. Reality is probably somewhere in between

 
Jun 30,2017

probably the best response to this election I've ever read

 
Jun 30,2017

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "with a potential candidate with a ton of unknowns (Rodham)." Regardless if you love her or hate her, she's been in the public eye for 25 years. I'm pretty sure we know her. She's laid out in detail her plans and she's basically been running for 10 years.

I thought this was a pretty interesting yet long read about Trump supporters. http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authori...
Although it's just my opinion-and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one-is that if he's elected President there's a decent chance that it's the beginning of the end of the US as we know it. I'm not saying the apocalypse arrives in Jan '17 if he wins but I don't think we come back from him. Nothing can go on forever and at the least the American public will fracture. Internationally we'd be absolutely fucked because he'd pursue reckless foreign policy and, rightfully so, any allies we have would be insane to trust us with him at the helm and we'd see a rudderless world and/or a power shift towards China. Personally, and I'm not kidding nor am I a reactionary tin foil hate wearing freak, if he's elected I'm moving to New Zealand or a small island in the South Pacific. I don't want my children to grow up in a country where he's the President or among the people who elected him.

If he's only the nominee of the GOP it's the end of the Republican party as we know it, if that hasn't happened already. If the traditional conservative republican GOP types want to keep control of the party they should sand bag this election, kick Trump out or piss him off enough to get him to leave and run as an independent and come back in 4 years with a candidate to beat Clinton. I'm ashamed of and disappointed in the Republicans who say they're going to support him if he's the candidate simply because they're Republicans. The guy not only is a repulsive wanna be despot who is using hate and racism to fuel his campaign, he's nowhere close to even being a conservative. He's turned what used to be a serious political party into a joke-in the last week he had Rubio talking about small hands and what that means. A US Senator and one of the leading candidates for the highest office in the land is making a reference to penis size? It's a fucking disgrace. I'm all for lively debate and opposing political points of view but he's made a mockery of a serious office. Reagan is turning over in his grave.

 
Jun 30,2017
Dingdong08:

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "with a potential candidate with a ton of unknowns (Rodham)." Regardless if you love her or hate her, she's been in the public eye for 25 years. I'm pretty sure we know her. She's laid out in detail her plans and she's basically been running for 10 years.

I thought this was a pretty interesting yet long read about Trump supporters.

Although it's just my opinion-and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one-is that if he's elected President there's a decent chance that it's the beginning of the end of the US as we know it. I'm not saying the apocalypse arrives in Jan '17 if he wins but I don't think we come back from him. Nothing can go on forever and at the least the American public will fracture. Internationally we'd be absolutely fucked because he'd pursue reckless foreign policy and, rightfully so, any allies we have would be insane to trust us with him at the helm and we'd see a rudderless world and/or a power shift towards China. Personally, and I'm not kidding nor am I a reactionary tin foil hate wearing freak, if he's elected I'm moving to New Zealand or a small island in the South Pacific. I don't want my children to grow up in a country where he's the President or among the people who elected him.

If he's only the nominee of the GOP it's the end of the Republican party as we know it, if that hasn't happened already. If the traditional conservative republican GOP types want to keep control of the party they should sand bag this election, kick Trump out or piss him off enough to get him to leave and run as an independent and come back in 4 years with a candidate to beat Clinton. I'm ashamed of and disappointed in the Republicans who say they're going to support him if he's the candidate simply because they're Republicans. The guy not only is a repulsive wanna be despot who is using hate and racism to fuel his campaign, he's nowhere close to even being a conservative. He's turned what used to be a serious political party into a joke-in the last week he had Rubio talking about small hands and what that means. A US Senator and one of the leading candidates for the highest office in the land is making a reference to penis size? It's a fucking disgrace. I'm all for lively debate and opposing political points of view but he's made a mockery of a serious office.

Don't let the door hit you on the ass as you leave.

What Trump Supports:

1) Strong Borders with a "big door" for legal immigration
2) A TEMPORARY halt on muslim immigration
3) Ending the carried interest tax loophole
4) Actually FAIR trade - not letting American workers get fucked over by NAFTA, etc
5) Repealing Obamacare, but putting something else in its place so Americans can have health insurance
6) Supporting all the good things Planned Parenthood does
7) Infrastructure spending
8) Lower levels of national debt
9) Pro Union, Pro Police, Pro Military
10) An end to endless interventionist wars (Bush, Obama, Clinton, Etc)

I love all the bullshit hysteria about Trump ruining out standing internationally, endless wars, this country rupturing, racism, blah blah blah.

You know why? Cause we have it all with Bush and Obama. Racism? You can thank Obama for the worst race relationships in this countries recent history. Foreign countries not respecting us? Thank Bush and Obama for this (coalition of the willing, line in the sand Syria can't cross, Iraq II lies, Libya, ISIS, et el).

Thank GOD that Trump is a shitty Republican. I think everyone is about done with conservative, back waters, fuck most Americans, classic Republicanism. Oh so sorry that China and big business won't be able to fuck American workers. Oh so sorry that we won't have endless religious lip service, trying to shut down planned parenthood even though it is one of the major sources of healthcare for most women. No more bullshit lip service about illegal immigration when it does nothing but deprive the poorest Americans (blacks included) of funding for their programs, jobs, higher wages.

This country is already fractured. Frankly, go fuck yourself with your pompous bullshit. No one stopped the American people for voting for Obama, a person who associated with a racist, anti American pastor, who had ZERO experience and thinks of himself as above everything else. Yet we have to stop a person who has actually built something, someone who is transcending parties. Trump is a populist in an era where both sides work together to fuck the American people.

Go take a look at wage growth and labor force participation rates and tell me that either party is doing shit for the majority of Americans. Take a look at Bernie's support and tell me people aren't sick and tired of the two party system.

Me, personally, I would beyond proud to live in a nation that freely elects a person who wants to put America first. I could give a shit what anyone else or any other country "thinks" of America. I think Europe is pathetic and will be an islamic caliphate in 20 years. You think Merkel gives a shit what I think? No.

Trump 2016 - proud of it.

 
Jun 30,2017
LameAsFook:

Dingdong08:I'm not quite sure what you mean by "with a potential candidate with a ton of unknowns (Rodham)." Regardless if you love her or hate her, she's been in the public eye for 25 years. I'm pretty sure we know her. She's laid out in detail her plans and she's basically been running for 10 years.I thought this was a pretty interesting yet long read about Trump supporters.Although it's just my opinion-and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one-is that if he's elected President there's a decent chance that it's the beginning of the end of the US as we know it. I'm not saying the apocalypse arrives in Jan '17 if he wins but I don't think we come back from him. Nothing can go on forever and at the least the American public will fracture. Internationally we'd be absolutely fucked because he'd pursue reckless foreign policy and, rightfully so, any allies we have would be insane to trust us with him at the helm and we'd see a rudderless world and/or a power shift towards China. Personally, and I'm not kidding nor am I a reactionary tin foil hate wearing freak, if he's elected I'm moving to New Zealand or a small island in the South Pacific. I don't want my children to grow up in a country where he's the President or among the people who elected him.If he's only the nominee of the GOP it's the end of the Republican party as we know it, if that hasn't happened already. If the traditional conservative republican GOP types want to keep control of the party they should sand bag this election, kick Trump out or piss him off enough to get him to leave and run as an independent and come back in 4 years with a candidate to beat Clinton. I'm ashamed of and disappointed in the Republicans who say they're going to support him if he's the candidate simply because they're Republicans. The guy not only is a repulsive wanna be despot who is using hate and racism to fuel his campaign, he's nowhere close to even being a conservative. He's turned what used to be a serious political party into a joke-in the last week he had Rubio talking about small hands and what that means. A US Senator and one of the leading candidates for the highest office in the land is making a reference to penis size? It's a fucking disgrace. I'm all for lively debate and opposing political points of view but he's made a mockery of a serious office.

Don't let the door hit you on the ass as you leave.

What Trump Supports:

1) Strong Borders with a "big door" for legal immigration2) A TEMPORARY halt on muslim immigration3) Ending the carried interest tax loophole4) Actually FAIR trade - not letting American workers get fucked over by NAFTA, etc5) Repealing Obamacare, but putting something else in its place so Americans can have health insurance6) Supporting all the good things Planned Parenthood does7) Infrastructure spending8) Lower levels of national debt9) Pro Union, Pro Police, Pro Military10) An end to endless interventionist wars (Bush, Obama, Clinton, Etc)

I love all the bullshit hysteria about Trump ruining out standing internationally, endless wars, this country rupturing, racism, blah blah blah.

You know why? Cause we have it all with Bush and Obama. Racism? You can thank Obama for the worst race relationships in this countries recent history. Foreign countries not respecting us? Thank Bush and Obama for this (coalition of the willing, line in the sand Syria can't cross, Iraq II lies, Libya, ISIS, et el).

Thank GOD that Trump is a shitty Republican. I think everyone is about done with conservative, back waters, fuck most Americans, classic Republicanism. Oh so sorry that China and big business won't be able to fuck American workers. Oh so sorry that we won't have endless religious lip service, trying to shut down planned parenthood even though it is one of the major sources of healthcare for most women. No more bullshit lip service about illegal immigration when it does nothing but deprive the poorest Americans (blacks included) of funding for their programs, jobs, higher wages.

This country is already fractured. Frankly, go fuck yourself with your pompous bullshit. No one stopped the American people for voting for Obama, a person who associated with a racist, anti American pastor, who had ZERO experience and thinks of himself as above everything else. Yet we have to stop a person who has actually built something, someone who is transcending parties. Trump is a populist in an era where both sides work together to fuck the American people.

Go take a look at wage growth and labor force participation rates and tell me that either party is doing shit for the majority of Americans. Take a look at Bernie's support and tell me people aren't sick and tired of the two party system.

Me, personally, I would beyond proud to live in a nation that freely elects a person who wants to put America first. I could give a shit what anyone else or any other country "thinks" of America. I think Europe is pathetic and will be an islamic caliphate in 20 years. You think Merkel gives a shit what I think? No.

Trump 2016 - proud of it.

This is actually the first and only convincing pro-trump arguement I have ever heard. And I've looked hard for some reason to like the guy.

Thank you.

 
Jun 30,2017
LameAsFook:

I love all the bullshit hysteria about Trump ruining out standing internationally, endless wars, this country rupturing, racism, blah blah blah.

You know why? Cause we have it all with Bush and Obama. Racism? You can thank Obama for the worst race relationships in this countries recent history. Foreign countries not respecting us? Thank Bush and Obama for this (coalition of the willing, line in the sand Syria can't cross, Iraq II lies, Libya, ISIS, et el).

I got reservations about Trump, voted for Rubio myself (preferred candidates were Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, or Mitch Daniels but they all either dropped or didn't run), but how did this comment get monkey shit? Disagree with Trump if you want but what LameAsFook said here is 100% accurate. Trump said he wants to beef up border security. Obama's Black Lives Matter supporters burnt down Baltimore and St. Louis. Which is worse?

 
Jun 30,2017
 
Jun 30,2017
ArcherVice:

Take me with you!

Another clown leaving this country. Thank God.

 
Jun 30,2017

I've served my country, so I sure as fuck have earned whatever opinion I choose to have. Go fuck yourself you piece of shit.

 
Jun 30,2017

Two points:

  1. I believe the saying is "Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they all stink, except those of beautiful women"
  2. Don't pack your bags yet. If Trump (or Cruz for that matter) gets the nomination, Hillary will win the biggest delegate landslide of our lifetime.

If you don't know who the sucker is at the table, it's you.

 
Jun 30,2017

Sure, because a first term senator or a bible thumping clown is a way better chance.

Keep drinking the party coolaid.

 
Jun 30,2017
Dingdong08:

A US Senator and one of the leading candidates for the highest office in the land is making a reference to penis size? It's a fucking disgrace.

Couldn't agree more. Did you see Trump's response to this during the debate last night? And the crowd's reaction? Like him or hate him, it's become absolutely fucking absurd.

 
Jun 30,2017

our plan to open that surf shop/bar might happen after all

 
Jun 30,2017

From Washington Post:

In any event, many Republicans dislike Trump primarily because they can't abide his flight from conservative orthodoxy. He has criticized the Iraq War and George W. Bush's foreign policy. He has attacked free trade. He opposes cuts in Social Security and Medicare. His vagueness on health care leaves open the possibility that he favors expansive government action to keep people, as he likes to put it, from "dying in the streets."

If the main problem with Trump is that he is not conservative enough,

Yeah, such a great reason to obstruct and lie about Trump.

1) Criticized Iraq war - left us in debt, killed and injured countless Americans and innocent citizens, all built on a lie that ruined many peoples reputations. Thanks Bush, Cheney, et el

  • All elected and supported by the "Republican Party"

2) Attached "Free" trade - So amazing, isn't it. I wonder how free it is when Americans try and sell goods to China, Japan, Mexico. Reality is, "free" trade only benefits businesses and business owners who can produce good for less overseas and sell if back to Americans.

3) Doesn't want to cut Social Security or Medicare - those damn poor and retired Americans. How dare they.

4) "Vague" on healthcare - Trump is a scumbag for not letting millions of people go without healthcare. Obama's version did nothing but benefit insurers. People keep getting fucked.

Illegal immigration lowers wages, slows automation and fucks over the poorest Americans. The rationale for illegal immigration is the same shit slave owners used for keeping slavery going.

"Who is going to pick crops for Americans" "They do jobs Americans won't do"

"WHo is going to pick cotton for Americans" "They do jobs Americans up north don't want to do"

Yeah, sounds about right.

Gotta love how everyone is freaking out about a POPULIST, someone who crosses party lines to effectively talk about helping normal Americans. Gotta love how those freaking out don't look at the damage the "establishment" candidates have done to this country.

Republicans (and Democrats) should take heed. Trump and Sanders are canaries in the coal mines. People are sick and tired of being lied to, fucked over and talked down to. The way the pundits sneer at "uneducated voters" whenever they vote for someone that isn't chosen for them is sickening. Obama and Bush are both Ivy League anointed ones that have done so much to fuck this country over.

IMO, Bernie supporters and Trump supporters share a lot in common, I think most differences are perceived and caused by the media.

 
Jun 30,2017

"Internationally we'd be absolutely fucked because he'd pursue reckless foreign policy and, rightfully so, any allies we have would be insane to trust us with him at the helm and we'd see a rudderless world and/or a power shift towards China. "

Love this hyperbolic bullshit.

Trump, TRUMP, would pursue reckless foreign policy???

USA takes out Libya's air force and allows radical islam to take hold - Obama

USA meddles in a civil war in a foreign country, makes ultimatums and backs down, causes chaos and a power vacuum that is filled by Russia - Obama

China and Russian relationships are at all time lows - Obama, Hillary, Kerry

Afghanistan "surge" policy utterly fails - Obama

Illegal Iraq war "coalition of the willing" - Bush

Endless drone war - Bush, Obama

I mean lets stop there. Lets not talk about Iran Contra, Vietnam, Panama, Grenada, on and on and on.

But yeah, it is Trump that is going to do it. I'll bet you this. Hillary, Rubio, Cruz, 100% they all continue the same bullshit policies we have right now.

Rudderless world LOLOLOLOLOLOLO. You mean like what is going on now? Russia has stepped in. Our ME "allies" don't see us as reliable anymore. China continues to build their islands and we do what? Fly overs and bring ships close by. Pivot to Asia? Oh wait, that is Trump, right. Not the US strategically moving to Asia to counter balance the rise in China - ie, use military might to hem them in (aggression).

Keep singing that same 'ol bullshit. Gotta love it.

 
Jun 30,2017

"The guy not only is a repulsive wanna be despot who is using hate and racism to fuel his campaign, he's nowhere close to even being a conservative. He's turned what used to be a serious political party into a joke-in the last week he had Rubio talking about small hands and what that means."

Trump is a wanna be despot? Hate and Racism? No where close to being a conservative? Turned a "serious" political party into a joke?

Suck a huge dick.

1) Racism - prove it? Don't even dare bring up that manufactured David Duke bullshit. Trump is a NYC liberal. If he is racist it is far less than anyone else in the party, both sides (Hillary - black men are super predators, wtf!?).

Islam isn't a race. He called for a TEMPORARY ban until we can vet who is coming in (every country has this right and ISIS has been saying they are using this refuge crisis to slip people in).

2) No where near being a conservative - THANK FUCKING GOD. Last thing we need is another anti-womens rights, bible thumping clown. Yeah, trump is the racist, but every "true conservative" is all about tolerance. Get the fuck out of here.

3) When has the Republican party been either respectable or serious? One forgets the campaigns of past, talking about illegitimate black children (McCain vs. Bush). Or a party that basically shuts down the federal government (Cruz). Both parties are pathetic.

 
Jun 30,2017

This is how I know you're a moron.

 
Jun 30,2017

Am I the only one who thinks that Trump doesn't believe most of what he is saying and is just trying to get votes? I mean I'm not really all that worried.

 
Jun 30,2017

@Dingdong08 You read "Vox" haha, what is wrong with you? I thought you were a slightly left leaning moderate.

 
Jun 30,2017

http://theweek.com/articles/599577/how-obscure-adv...
I think this article merits a read and discussion. I personally think the America portrayed in this piece is a clearest insight into the reality where Trump's success is derived from.

 
Nov 30,2016

Given both parties are leftists and no party has any inclination to reduce the size of government, nothing will change. Taxes up, spending up, regulation up, debt up, unfunded liabilities up, individiual freedom down. If anybody disagrees I have ocean front property in Nebraska for sale.

 
 
Jun 30,2017

I believe the word you are looking for is, "deregulation."

 
Jun 30,2017

No. The market is at an all time high - difficult place to find value. All of the lack of dispersion, bla bla bla bs from HFs over the last several years has just been griping about the fact that they generally suck and are a bunch of long/short mutual funds that can't even short successfully.

Trump wont change that

 
Nov 30,2016

There is going to be a currency war from the next year or so.

Germany is currently under investigation in the US for currency manipulation, which is simply out of the fact that the Euro is remarkably weaker currency for them, due to the fact that it comes out of a weighted average of the other national currencies, the Mark being the strongest, the Drachma, Lira, Escudo and Peseta being the weakest.

This has resulted in an export boost for Germany since 1999 and that is no longer tolerated in the US industrial circles. Some say that the uncovering of the Volkswagen scandal earlier this year was a warning shot, we'll see. Either way, the Dollar is shifting towards lower levels as part of Trump's plan to revitalize the US industry.

Dodd Frank is going, Glass Steagall coming back.

Amazon will go under review for anti-trust reasons.
Apple will also suffer.

Not going to say more than this. If you are good at something, don't do it for free.

 
 
Jun 30,2017

Trump has no fundamental understanding of how the economy works, and thus is a fucking retard. Once people realize he doesn't give any shits about people and working people for that matter, it'll be too late unfortunately

 
Jun 30,2017

I say this as someone that is far from a fan of Trump. Most shops trying to make differentiated, long-term "calls" on Trump's trade policies are spinning their wheels, as we don't know what he will do on that front. I suspect that it's mostly posturing from him on that front, and that he isn't going to simply rip up NAFTA. What we do know is that most forward-looking economic metrics are positive right now, with the most prominent example being the market. Here's another example: the Philly Fed's Capex Sentiment Index is the highest it's been in 17 years, and that's despite a strengthening dollar. Sounds like company mgt teams aren't too worried about trade policies.

Bret Stephens had a great column recently in the WSJ that gave several examples of how the federal government has been markedly anti-business over the past 8 years. For instance, eight years ago it took 40 days to get a construction permit. Now it takes 81. In the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, the US has fallen precipitously from 3rd in the world to 8th during Obama's tenure. This is all to say, Trump has somewhat of an easy comp, and a lot of room to improve the economy.

I'll also mention that it's also a bit humorous that Citi apparently believes Trump may "curtail fiscal stimulus", given that the two main levers of fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, and (contra-GOP) infrastructure spending, are going to be principal tenets of his economic policies in the next four years.

As a conservative, I was extremely skeptical of Trump, but thus far, he is generally showing signs of doing positive things for the economy with his cabinet picks by cutting back on the draconian regulatory environment created by his predecessor. I was mainly enjoying this past fall for the trolls, not thinking he would win. But now that he has won, it is encouraging that we actually have a president that has thus far demonstrated a pro-business slant. Hopefully that continues, and hopefully, my suspicions about his plans on trade are correct.

 
Jun 30,2017
 
Nov 30,2016
  • Mr. Carter