Incoming Black Swan Event - Beginning to the End of the 10 Year+ Bull Market
I've been closely watching the market for the past year or so and have been an avid trader since the 08 crisis. With so many people hyped up on the stock market, crypto and real estate, I believe the market is bound to crash soon. There are so many similarities from the crash in 08 and the dot com bubble that are reflected in today's market. One personal example is seeing my 12-15 year old cousins and nephews talking about dogecoin, crypto and trying to get in on the action. On top of that, I've visited my grandparents a few times at their senior care facilities and you have 80-90 year olds talking about gamestop, stocks, and crypto.
Yes, the markets have become a phenomenon recently but I can't think of a better time to short the market. Powell and the Fed keep reiterating the point that they will keep interest rates low even if they have to do so for many years in order to keep the economy running. This seems absurd and I think we'll see much more long term consequences due to the Fed's decisions. Therefore, I'm putting money where my mouth is and have loaded 40% of myand SPY put contracts. I am seeing over 95% of retailers are all in on stocks/crypto and so many of them are using leverage and margin to buy as much as they can.
What are your thoughts about the current market situation? Will we see a crash soon or will I lose 40% of my portfolio over the course of this next year?