Wuhan Corona Virus

Lloyd Blankfein's picture
Rank: Human | 18,978

The SARS-like Corona virus from Wuhan, China has killed 9 people and has 500 confirmed cases. But since this is China, they are definitely fudging their statistics to make them look better; Imperial College London estimates there's over 2000 cases currently.

The Chinese CDC is probably shitting their pants right now, because the timing could not be any worse. Right now, it's about to be the lunar New Year in China, aka the largest human migration event in human history. It's like American Thanksgiving travel on steroids, with 400 million people traveling by air and train, and millions returning home from abroad or traveling overseas as well. The Coronavirus has proven to be transmissible person to person, giving these conditions the potential for turning into an actual pandemic, SARS 2.0 maybe. There's absolutely no way that government can limit all the people in Wuhan (population: 11 million) from traveling, especially considering the fact that people might be infected and not show any symptoms. Combined with the enormous volume of travel, and the huge increase in outside leisure activity (people in China have a week off), this is probably going to cause a huge spread of this disease.

Is China screwed, or is this just media hype? Will this keep the DJIA (aka 8% Chinese companies) from reaching 30,000? Are we all going to die?

Comments (118)

Most Helpful
Jan 22, 2020

don't throw MS, this WILL affect the markets heavily if it gets as bad as SARS. Do you all really think that Trump will get re-elected, the Fed will keep printing more money, and the bull market will go up and up forever? Yes, the media hypes up diseases like Ebola, but this isn't Ebola in poor as fuck West Africa. This is 1.4 billion people in the world's largest economy by purchasing powering parity, and if things get bad in China, the US bull market is FUCKED.

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Jan 28, 2020

build the wall ;)

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Jan 28, 2020

Array

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Feb 25, 2020
lloydblankfine on Insta:

don't throw MS, this WILL affect the markets heavily if it gets as bad as SARS. Do you all really think that Trump will get re-elected, the Fed will keep printing more money, and the bull market will go up and up forever? Yes, the media hypes up diseases like Ebola, but this isn't Ebola in poor as fuck West Africa. This is 1.4 billion people in the world's largest economy by purchasing powering parity, and if things get bad in China, the US bull market is FUCKED.

Respect.

Array

Feb 25, 2020

Give this guy 1000x bananas

Feb 26, 2020

You all threw MS, but my predictions were spot on. There were 9 deaths when I wrote this, but now there's 2500 deaths. Shit's hitting the fan.

https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/president-b...

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Apr 15, 2020

this aged well

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Apr 15, 2020

present

Apr 15, 2020

Wow why did I miss this thread

Jan 22, 2020

Why does this have so much monkey shit?

Anyhow, the first confirmed case in the US is in Seattle.

My local airport just started screening.

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Jan 22, 2020

Just like Planet of the Apes! I for one think we can cooperate with our new monkey overlords. I look forward to spooning with some simians soon.

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Funniest
Jan 22, 2020

rona szn came early where are the limes?

Array

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Jan 23, 2020

It is confirmed Justin Bieber has lyme disease, this could potentially make him the first person with corona and lyme disease should he get infected

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Jan 23, 2020

yummy

Array

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Feb 29, 2020

Read that as lines - didn't mind though

Feb 29, 2020

Time to go skiing and I am not talking about Aspen ;)

Array

Jan 22, 2020

Humanity's only hope rests with Brad Pitt

Jan 22, 2020

Then we are truly fucked

Jan 22, 2020
Dean Keaton:

Humanity's only hope rests with Brad Pitt

He's DrEeEeEeEeEeaMyyyyy

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Jan 22, 2020

Definitely too early to make any reasonable assumptions but will just mention reporting this time around from China has been a bit more transparent than it was with SARS so at least countries can pre-emptively prepare for it.

Problem is China now is much different to China back then with the sheer amount of air traffic and movement domestically / internationally. Combine that with the timing of the new year, and you have perfect conditions for a human to human virus to spread.

Airport screening, although better than nothing, is limited as well since the incubation period for coronavirus is difficult to predict. Further limiting the effectiveness of screenings, they've have mostly been done on flights from Wuhan, and not other Chinese cities.

Will also add that the number of deaths might seem low for now, but there's obviously a lag compared to the number of cases, which has worryingly increased exponentially.

All in all, I wouldn't disregard an impact on markets, especially China and HK if this becomes a much more serious event. Believe the Hang Seng was hit hard during the SARS outbreak.

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Jan 22, 2020

Anyone ever read World War Z? Hype AF book.

Jan 22, 2020

I think the movie Contagion would be a more apt comparison

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Jan 22, 2020

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Jan 25, 2020

haha brad and chad haha

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Jan 25, 2020

what a thoughtful and original contribution. thank you. +1 SB.

Thank you for your interest in the 2020 Investment Banking Full-time Analyst Programme (London) at JPMorgan Chase. After a thorough review of your application, we regret to inform you that we are unable to move forward with your candidacy at this time.

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Jan 22, 2020

When it hits new york i'm taking a train to the CO mountains and living in the mountains for a while.

Array

Jan 22, 2020

just go to upstate mountains?
taking a train in close proximity for others for two days to the CO mountains sounds like a very good way to get infected

Jan 22, 2020

you're right should probably just rent a car

Array

Jan 22, 2020

That hypothetical "what's your zombie escape plan" watercooler banter just got real AF.

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Jan 22, 2020

After running some simulations on Pandemic 2, it is clear to me that we should migrate to Madagascar or Greenland.

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Jan 22, 2020

I HAVE been looking to buy another place in China. Serious. So if this causes a SARS-like dislocation? I'm all in! SARS made HK real estate market collapse by 50% for 6 months. After that it went on a 15 year rocketship tear. Maybe this is the catalyst I need!

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Jan 23, 2020

Sometimes I wonder if you're the most amoral user on this site who is above 21 years old

"The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary." - Nassim Taleb

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Jan 23, 2020

When opportunity knocks...

Jan 23, 2020

STFU about morality this is WALL STREET oasis
not BUDDHIST MONKS PONTIFICATING ABOUT HOW TO LIVE A GOOD LIFE oasis

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Jan 23, 2020

Hahahaha I love how the MS is "Inaccurate"

"The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary." - Nassim Taleb

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Jan 28, 2020

2008 caused a dislocation in the US property market. How many years after that should I have waited before investing in US property became moral? Would 2010 be ok? Or still too soon? Was 2014 morally acceptable to invest in US real estate? Or should i have waited to 2020?

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Jan 23, 2020

its 2003 all over again

Controversial
Jan 23, 2020

Those Chinese folks are eating shyt that I wouldn't feed to my enemies dog!

CNN has live video from tainted underground marketplace. Comments are pretty raw.

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Jan 23, 2020

Array

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Jan 23, 2020

"Those Chinese folks are eating shyt that I wouldn't feed to my enemies dog!"

dude, they would have EATEN your dog

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Jan 24, 2020

Unsure why I got so much shyt. Did anyone watch the CNN coverage? There were racoondogs, porcupines, birds, and snakes in the market being sold as delicacies.

And you saw that right, RACOONDOGS!

Array

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Jan 28, 2020

I don't know why you're getting MS either. It's quite literally real. When I was in Harbin looking at PE deals there one guy ordered me a heaping plate of dog. I flat out refused to partake and he was mightily offended. I still remember that plate, the big thick bones. Must have been a husky or St. Bernard. Switzerland had a fit over the Chinese breeding St. Bernards for meat, but from the Chinese perspective, it's a big fatty dog that they can grow outdoors in cold climates, so why wouldn't they do it?

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Feb 29, 2020

Here's a situation I've been curious about. So I've had to stomach some odd meals in Taiwan for work that I didn't want to eat (think intestines or something) but if someone offered me dog meat, I legitimately don't think I could stay at the table. I can hold myself to an incredible professional / culturally aware demeanor but thats a tough one for me to stomach. Just curious what happens when you run into someone less agreeable than the fellow you refused. Blech

Jan 23, 2020

Just short the VIX tomorrow and you will have safe heaven investment

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Jan 24, 2020

Do you understand how this work? Shorting the VIX is a bull trade

Array

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Jan 29, 2020

I think he was joking. Or trolling. No one in their right mind would actually short the VIX after a pandemic starts.

Jan 23, 2020

Watch the epidemic episode of Explained on Netflix. It'll then make sense why these tend to originate in Asian food markets and it may give you some comfort in how they're erradicated.

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Jan 24, 2020

This was a good explained. NFLX somehow has an entire pandemic docuseries out like last week lol. Pretty timely....

Jan 26, 2020

Do you have a quick summary?

Jan 30, 2020

Viruses are smart, humans are stupid, and we're all fucked.

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Jan 24, 2020

I know a Chinese woman who works at the Goldman Sachs. I wonder if I should bring this up during a coffee chat? You know the whole hire me for knowing about STDs. *Cough // I mean viruses.

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Jan 25, 2020

Can't wait for President Sanders to upgrade US health care to Chinese communist standards.

Jan 26, 2020

Kinda fucked that China has less uninsured people then we do considering how fucking rich our country is

Jan 26, 2020

South Africa constitution guarantees the right to housing, health care, and public education, among other guarantees.

"If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will." Tommy Boy

Jan 29, 2020

Yes, thru 3 different programs China has over the past 10 years managed to bring effectively 100% of the population under national health insurance. They also have nearly-free public healthcare.

The US healthcare situation is a dumpster fire. We pay 2x even the next country in costs, and have third-world level results. US has the best healthcare professionals and tech, but the cost puts these out of reach for all but the wealthiest.

However, China's healthcare outcomes are pretty deplorable too. The system is so overburdened, with a low physician-per-capita rate, that they can only see patients for 2-3 minutes each, leading to a 43% misdiagnosis rate (according to Cleveland Clinic).

Where healthcare works better is in countries other than US and China. In Hong Kong, we have full public healthcare and it is super high quality. Same for Australia and UK. China and US really have to get their act together.

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Jan 25, 2020

Chinese people for real need to stop eating bats and and doing other disgusting shit, maybe then they'll have less virus outbreaks

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Jan 29, 2020

I agree wholeheartedly. What I see in China everyday from a food hygiene standpoint is scary. But I would say all nations should stop eating meat. It's an ecological disaster, an epidemic risk, and really unhealthy. We are eating ourselves into destruction.

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  • Associate 2 in IB-M&A
Jan 30, 2020

Per multiple news outlets like WSJ, NYT, CNN, there was no evidence of bats in the market. Scientists say that it is very likely a bat carried the virus and infected one or some of the livestock. The livestock then acted as an intermediate host to transmit the virus to humans in the market.

While I disagree with the poor hygiene practices in China, I think misinformation and complete idiocy that is spread by close-minded, ignorant, and racist people like yourself is far more dangerous than the disease. I would suggest reading a book, the news, or just being more educated.

Unless you are old or have a pre-existing health condition, you're not likely to die from this, and if you are outside of China, it is very very unlikely you will contract it as well.

I'm a white male FYI in case you get butthurt about my comment.

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Jan 27, 2020

Mr Black Swan himself seems to be worried

Jan 27, 2020

Lot of opportunistic science folks on twitter ranting about the high reproduction rate, ie it's very contagious. Great opportunity to flex about their statistical models.

However the median age of those who've died is 75. Small sample size. But if that holds up, ie if only vulnerable patients are dying, that's not going to be a pandemic no matter how fast it spreads.

Jan 27, 2020

completely agree, but it's impossible to know if that will hold up, and since the possible outcomes are pandemic/no pandemic, people are abiding by the adage your grandmother always said "better safe than sorry"

I'm not saying you need to freak out, but unlike other "scary" things like war, pandemics need to be treated with the utmost caution

Jan 27, 2020

It seems to have infected the stock market today, if nothing else

Jan 28, 2020

This NYT article makes the point that many virus outbreaks, including the current one, are caused by human habitat destruction and the quest for animal protein.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/opinion/coronav...

Jan 28, 2020

Long $BYND's prospects in China?

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Jan 29, 2020

can't read because of the pay wall, but I will tell you this. a desire for animal protein in america and poor food safety practices combined with a desire to eat disgusting animals that aren't food...I don't see the connection.

maybe you can comment on what point they're asserting, but on the surface this sounds like grasping at straws by vegan propagandists

Jan 29, 2020

Basically, the piece talks about the epidemiological risks of animal ag. it is saying that animals carry diseases and it's really dangerous to rely on them as a large-scale food source. That is especially true both in China as it has this penchant for eating exotic animals with exotic wild-born diseases, but is quite frankly also true to a lesser extent for developed nations. Living in close proximity to animals, raising them in deeply unhealthy conditions, feeding them antibiotics.... it all amounts to a breeding ground for disease which we see spilling over into pandemic time and again.

Every year, the flu is incubated in China - as flu needs the presence of fowl, pig and human to effectively mutate, by jumping from one to the other. There was avian flu, SARS, N1S1, now coronavirus. And the US is not exempt entirely - with outbreaks of e-coli, mad cow disease, etc.

  • animals carry a lot of diseases
  • raising them as livestock requires keeping them in tight confinement along with other animals, typically covered in feces, is creating lots of disease transmission opportunities
  • in modern animal ag this means feeding them with tons of antibiotics to stave off disease which in turn creates antibiotic-resistant stronger diseases
  • in the case of China, there is also no cold-chain logistics and refrigeration so even the post-slaughter meat is a much more active disease vector
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Jan 28, 2020

To quote a friend from way back in elementary school who now works as a corrections officer I stay in contact with,

"Just don't drink corona, why is it such a big deal?"

He wasn't being sarcastic.

Jan 30, 2020

Exercise care. Stupidity is also highly contagious and there is no known cure. Your childhood friend appears to be in late stages of incurable idiocy.

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Jan 30, 2020
earthwalker7:

Exercise care. Stupidity is also highly contagious and there is no known cure. Your childhood friend appears to be in late stages of incurable idiocy.

Haha - wise advice, but can't shut the door on someone you've known for 20+ years.

Jan 29, 2020

Scientists have already developed a vaccine.

It won't be ready for distribution for "at least a year" but science is pretty fucking cool.

jesse

Jan 29, 2020

It is pretty surprising but true that one person got the coronavirus from an animal and spread it to that many people through airborne contact. U.S.A is conducting evacuation for every U.S citizen in Wuhan, China. There has been four reports of the virus in the U.S.A so far. It's debatable what is worst, this or pollution in China.

"It's okay, I'll see you on the other side"

Jan 30, 2020

This is a very good summary of the government incompetence and mismanagement of the crisis. I'm MAD AS HELL about this, as my wife and baby are in China at the moment. We decided they should stay in her parents' home in China specifically because it's not worth the risk of them flying back to HK, and sharing recycled air with 200+ passengers (and in a sense, sharing the air of more than 1000 people, given that the virus remains live in the air for more than 48 hours). This is precisely like the government mismanagement of SARS in 2003, which I witnessed having first moved to China in Feb 2003 as a language student. The government is more interested in suppressing information and bravadoing their way through, rather than being transparent. The lack of knowledge and rumourmill is more dangerous than honesty.

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Feb 2, 2020

I can't take that guy seriously when his wife is so ugly

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Jan 30, 2020

hide your kids hide your wife

Jan 30, 2020

yeah, dude, they are in hiding in a tier 3 city in China. It's safer than Hong Kong right now. This place is like a ghost-town.

Feb 1, 2020

Personally enjoying the WHO going on how it's important to preserve international trade and people's mobility (the fuck? I thought the goal of the organization was health) and libs focusing on warning people not to be xenophobic in the face of this.

Makes me fucking hope Corona Virus kills us all. Unworthy specimens.

Feb 1, 2020

Not all libs some of us are not mistaking safety and prevention for xenophobia.

Array

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Feb 1, 2020

Good man

Feb 1, 2020
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