5/1/12

How can one man make a company lose 25% of it's market cap with just three questions.

+1 SB to you sir

Whats every ones opinion about Herbalife, any health geeks take any supplements from this company?

Comments (31)

5/1/12

This is crazy. Einhorn can make money on a position just by asking a few questions in a conference call. Not saying this is what happened but it's possible.

"Sincerity is an overrated virtue" - Milton Friedman

http://www.jasonbondpicks.com
5/1/12

dude is awesome

anyone who hasn't done so, should read Fooling some of the people all of the time

5/1/12

He's a legend.

He called Lehman before it went down, took a lot of heat for it, but was labelled a baller when everyone realized he was right.

febreeze:

anyone who hasn't done so, should read Fooling some of the people all of the time

Anyone have a PDF of it?

5/1/12

I was just going to post this. The guy is such a fucking BOSS, it's sick. No doubt he's one of the 5 best hedge fund managers out there right now, in any space, along with the likes of Jim Simons, Seth Klarman, etc.

5/1/12

all these analysts are saying it's a buy lol shit still droping

5/1/12
5/1/12

Wasn't he on the board of Countrywide? He killed it with Lehman but his overall view of the subprime mortgage industry wasn't on par with Paulson and Kyle Bass.

The guy def has a knack for interpreting financial statements. Like Soros, he's taking advantage of the herd behind him.

In reply to mb666
5/1/12
mb666:

Wasn't he on the board of Countrywide? He killed it with Lehman but his overall view of the subprime mortgage industry wasn't on par with Paulson and Kyle Bass.

The guy def has a knack for interpreting financial statements. Like Soros, he's taking advantage of the herd behind him.

I think Einhorn understands individual stocks on a deeper level than almost anyone out there. Not just financial statements analysis but also extensive research into a company's distribution channels, inner operations, etc.

Paulson made one REALLY good call and has been living off of it since. I'm not convinced that he is one of the truly elite hedge fund managers in terms of pure talent.

http://www.jasonbondpicks.com
5/1/12

With the level of diligence they do, I actually think working at Greenlight would be miserable.

5/1/12

Well is Herbalife even a real buisness or is it a pyramid scheme?

They don't even have bar codes on there products do they?

5/1/12

Also, I doubt Einhorn actually shorted it before the call. And I bet he was very surprised by the market reaction to his questions. If anything, I bet greenlight loads up the truck on Herbalife shares tomorrow. I'd be a massive buyer right now. This thing will pop 10+% tomorrow. You heard it here.

In reply to Brady4MVP
5/1/12
Brady4MVP:

The guy is such a fucking BOSS, it's sick. No doubt he's one of the 5 best hedge fund managers out there right now, in any space, along with the likes of Jim Simons, Seth Klarman, etc.

None of this should matter to you, Brady. He doesn't even have a degree from a decent Ivy, much less an MBA. How does he plan on closing his next round of fundraising without an MBA?

In reply to prospie
5/1/12
prospie:
Brady4MVP:

The guy is such a fucking BOSS, it's sick. No doubt he's one of the 5 best hedge fund managers out there right now, in any space, along with the likes of Jim Simons, Seth Klarman, etc.

None of this should matter to you, Brady. He doesn't even have a degree from a decent Ivy, much less an MBA. How does he plan on closing his next round of fundraising without an MBA?

LOL you nailed it

5/1/12

I don't get it. I saw the question and I read the transcript. His question seemed pretty innocuous and the CFO said they could easily provide the data. Does anyone have any idea what Einhorn's getting at or why people think this line of questioning suggests some fundamental weakness in either the business or the financials?

In reply to NewGuy
5/2/12
NewGuy:

Also, I doubt Einhorn actually shorted it before the call. And I bet he was very surprised by the market reaction to his questions. If anything, I bet greenlight loads up the truck on Herbalife shares tomorrow. I'd be a massive buyer right now. This thing will pop 10+% tomorrow. You heard it here.

Yeah definitely. Because Einhorn's the type of guy that does his due diligence during conference calls. He definitely didn't want to get them on the record responding to those questions, and he certainly doesn't already have a short position, nor does he know the company better than senior management.

5/2/12

David Einhorn is the best research analyst in the business. Nobody comes close. I'd kill a small child and eat the remains in front of a live studio audience just for an opportunity to interview with him.

I hate victims who respect their executioners

In reply to NewGuy
5/2/12
NewGuy:

Also, I doubt Einhorn actually shorted it before the call. And I bet he was very surprised by the market reaction to his questions. If anything, I bet greenlight loads up the truck on Herbalife shares tomorrow. I'd be a massive buyer right now. This thing will pop 10+% tomorrow. You heard it here.

How's that prediction working out so far? Down 2% in the first 2.5hrs of trading.

EDIT: Now down 6.3% today, hope you had a good time loading up on HLF!

5/2/12
In reply to oaktreeman
5/2/12
oaktreeman:

In case you're interested.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11333

Thanks for the link. I have really enjoyed the handful of interviews that I have watched so far, and I will definitely watch this tonight.

5/2/12

I'd still load up on Herbalife if I could. But we don't trade US stocks at my fund. And you unpreftigious idiots criticising my "buy" with the benefit of one day or hindsight make me laugh. These are the sort of opportunities event driven funds kill for.

In reply to NewGuy
5/2/12
NewGuy:

With the level of diligence they do, I actually think working at Greenlight would be miserable.

Would still be an awesome learning experience that most people would kill to do for a couple of years. I definitely agree that he could ask questions on almost any stock and it would go down, but I wouldn't want to be long knowing that he's taking the other side.

5/2/12

Somewhat related? - Anyone else notice GMCR tank 40% after earnings/call tonight?

In reply to prospie
5/3/12
prospie:
Brady4MVP:

The guy is such a fucking BOSS, it's sick. No doubt he's one of the 5 best hedge fund managers out there right now, in any space, along with the likes of Jim Simons, Seth Klarman, etc.

None of this should matter to you, Brady. He doesn't even have a degree from a decent Ivy, much less an MBA. How does he plan on closing his next round of fundraising without an MBA?

You saying Cornell ain't a decent Ivy? Well I do say I take exception to that

5/3/12
In reply to NewGuy
5/3/12
NewGuy:

I'd still load up on Herbalife if I could. But we don't trade US stocks at my fund. And you unpreftigious idiots criticising my "buy" with the benefit of one day or hindsight make me laugh. These are the sort of opportunities event driven funds kill for.

Ahh the old "Take the other side when David Einhorn starts asking questions on a conference call" Event, A classic strategy.

In reply to andyinsandiego
5/3/12
andyinsandiego:
NewGuy:

I'd still load up on Herbalife if I could. But we don't trade US stocks at my fund. And you unpreftigious idiots criticising my "buy" with the benefit of one day or hindsight make me laugh. These are the sort of opportunities event driven funds kill for.

Ahh the old "Take the other side when David Einhorn starts asking questions on a conference call" Event, A classic strategy.

mmmmmmyes, it has worked quite profitably.
http://i.qkme.me/3590nl.jpg

5/3/12

My man-crush on this guy cannot be explained in words. He understands the things that are important to understand, and he only swings at pitches he can hit. And he's [relatively] young for how successful he's been.

I hate victims who respect their executioners

5/16/12

Silence is golden. Shorts are about to get their balls squeezed. Back to 70 + by Friday?

5/16/12

David did the pump and dump in reverse (what would that be? Dump and pump sounds weird). He's out of the trade.

In reply to killfrankgoreshead
5/16/12

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In reply to killfrankgoreshead
5/17/12

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