What do you see the future of investment banking looking like? With all the post crisis regulations and new further regulations coming out, where do you all see the future of BB banking going in terms of firm head count, job security, compensation, deal flow, etc.? Will it remain the field it has been for the last 20 or so years or what will it turn into?

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It's really hard to say what the future direction will look like and is heavily dependant on the political reality of the next few years. Barring some disaster, Obama will win this year and the GOP will likely come back to power in 2016. For now, the banks are cutting expenses, so non core and non growth areas will get hit hard. When the environment cools, business in general, along with banking, will pick up...but I really don't know what sectors. The new regulations will put a damper on the public markets, but private wealth - HF/PE/etc - will really stand to flourish because they aren't being hammered by all of the new rules. Ironically, by trying to protect the middle class, a lot of the new regulations are putting a ton of power into the hands of non public finance.

There's a lot of noise being generated by the energy sector - natgas especially, retirement of the boomer generation, and international sectors, but it remains to be seen how American banks will specifically cash in on the above. There are other developments, like student loans and the federal debt, that banks will have a role in, but I don't know enough to really speculate how. I spent all weekend trying to wrap my head around the big picture and exactly what groups stand to really thrive in the coming decades but I can't really get a feel for the coming lay of the land, so I'd welcome anyone's thoughts on that subject.

The short term is fucked, so take what you can get, but where is the growth going to be in 2, 10 and 15 years? I don't know, I'm curious what everyone else thinks as well.

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i'm jumping to HF in the fall.


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