51 Comments
 
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This seems like it actually could be useful if someone can give it some accuracy. Would like to hear predictions as to where banks will be in 5 years

 

DB?

Would see them on the rise. They are almost finished with their restructuring and cost cutting measures. Results look solid the last few quarters. They are also aggressively hiring from CS and continuing to hire for their graduate program (at least in Frankfurt HQ I am certain).

 

Disagree about this. BMO bought an asset for 2x what they could have gotten it for today while TD managed to get out of a deal where they would have been overpaying for something that could easily go to 0 in the next months.

 

Worst timing ever, lol. News just hit the tape, check out who was advising this deal. (hint: ctrl+f "BMO") 

Newmont Inks $20 Billion Newcrest Deal to Create Gold Giant

https://investingnews.com/amp/newmont-enters-into-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-newcrest-2660197585

Response to your valid point: TD's US retail M&A strategy is starting to show cracks due to regionals crisis. BMO is targeting the commercial clientele and is being strategic about deposits market share (expanding in Cali, not doubling down in Chicago) -- can assure you it will have a different payoff, and as I said and will say again, will be reflected ~5yrs down the road.

 

Idk about Guggenheim being a top EB, but they are doing well in the league tables this year.

 

Very insightful and, from what I know/have read, accurate. Good job, helpful. 

 

+1 on Wells rising. only caveat I have is I don't see them being a fully established BB unless they start expending internationally? But the superstar hires will definitely help them build momentum.

Also, confused with Citi? Besides shrinking their IBD division (which all BBs are doing) what is going on there? They aren't in the top 10 of the league tables right now on volume nor fees. Seems like they are below Wells and Bank of Montreal this year. 

 

Evercore is not on par right now with Centerview, but that is in large part due to how much Centerview has been killing it recently. They (CVP) are a top firm still on the rise. 

 

Biased as I am former JPM, but they are on the rise, not only because of league tables but also because they are stepping up to the plate and working with the government on potential US debt default scenarios and bought first republic's assets (which is largely due to their size but still respectable). Dimon is also extremely competent, despite his boomer WFH policies (but again that's just because of his age).

In contrast -- Goldman is no longer a BB for countless obvious reasons. Their decks look like some analyst who hasn't slept for a week threw up on it. That is all.

 

Regarding bulges: 

Agree on WFC. They have shown a remarkable willingness to invest in the IB franchise over the past few years and have made many key hires across multiple verticals. They clearly want to be a player here and once everything is rolling their balance sheet will do a lot of the talking. 

Completely disagree on MS. Strong argument MS has been the best run bulge over the past 4-5 years. Their purchases in wealth and ability to build the balance sheet was really prescient and showed great ability to execute on the thesis. Look at the stock performance if you feel differently. They have lost ground to JP over past 10 years but so has everyone and they have really gained on GS as GS has screwed up past few years. 

GS is hurting right now. The partners dont believe in DS and he completely missed going all in on consumer. All the deals he made with Apple have terrible economics and who knows what type of loss they will book on Greensky. They also just messed up the SVB deal that sent the banks into a crisis. 

BofA keeps trending up through consistent investment and improvement, year after year... although it helps the "tier" they were in (Citi, CS, BARC,  DB) all have made unforced errors past few years. That helps you move up when everyone around you keeps falling. 

 

RX is good but everything else seems pretty garbage to me. Recruited with them and didn't like the experience at all and culture seemed very boring. I pulled out after getting an offer at another bank 

 

I can only comment on BBs 

Wells: I think they'll be a very competitive contender going forward. Some great senior hires across various groups and Charlie Scharf has showed commitment to growing the IB division out. Balance sheet can be flexed to win mandates, and getting the asset cap removed would be huge for the bank. 

JPM: No comment, they're winning the big bank race by miles 

MS: Has been doing much better than GS. The wealth management transactions has really helped the bank and they've been very well ran by James Gorman. I think IB division has been slacking just a bit, but I think once market rebounds they'll be back to normal. 

Goldman: Big L with the consumer expansion and I don't think people at the firm support DJ Soloman. They are still knocking it out of the park in IB but that's what GS does. But super curious how the bank will be overall few years from now. 

BofA: they're doing what they do. super slow when it comes to everything, very boring, but it's been working for them. 

Citi: idk what they are doing. they always took pride over the "being very international" bank but have been closing locations throughout. When it comes to IB, once again idk. They aren't in the top 10 of league tables this year 

 

Not sure about MS. They were no 2 on M&A league tables and fees last year. I wouldn’t look too much into 2023 YTD given the material drop in overall deal making. Any firm with a few good deals this year will rank higher than trend (CVP). For shareholders, MS is the best run BB, check stock price return in the last decade. Quick look at the market today and you’ll see they were on the monster ONEOK/Magellan deal and TPG’s acquisition of Angelo Gordon.

 

what about citi's tech franchise? heard that although as a whole ibd is shrinking, citi is investing more into the tech group

 

PWP for sure. RX is on the rise, poaching partners/MDs everywhere, lights out years recently, etc.

Edit: Didn’t even see that yesterday they just poached the COO of GS M&A. Wild

 

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