Growing/Rising and Shrinking/Falling Banks

This seems like it actually could be useful if someone can give it some accuracy. Would like to hear predictions as to where banks will be in 5 years

Following. Very useful and in my opinion not discussed as much as it should be

DB?

Flip TD and BMO.

TD just choked First Horizon with regulators.. BMO landed Bank of The West before SVB mania. Believe it’s quite pivotal but won’t be reflected till ~5yrs down the line. 

Piper with their recent acquisitions like DBO, Sandler O Neil, TRS, and the Valence Group. Seems like these acquisitions have been successful in helping Piper grow into more verticals and punch above their middle market competitors in these verticals. Thoughts on if they can become a "top" middle market firm in the next couple of years?

Idk about Guggenheim being a top EB, but they are doing well in the league tables this year.

Huh

Very insightful and, from what I know/have read, accurate. Good job, helpful. 

+1 on Wells rising. only caveat I have is I don't see them being a fully established BB unless they start expending internationally? But the superstar hires will definitely help them build momentum.

Also, confused with Citi? Besides shrinking their IBD division (which all BBs are doing) what is going on there? They aren't in the top 10 of the league tables right now on volume nor fees. Seems like they are below Wells and Bank of Montreal this year. 

Worth noting that BMO recently acquired Bank of the West. Expands their connections on West Coast, potentially also boosts their balance sheet. Also recently invested in a new office/skyscraper in Chicago. IBD is experiencing low growth in Canada, so they’re expanding US-wise, from what I’ve heard from MDs and other employees.

Evercore is not on par right now with Centerview, but that is in large part due to how much Centerview has been killing it recently. They (CVP) are a top firm still on the rise. 

Biased as I am former JPM, but they are on the rise, not only because of league tables but also because they are stepping up to the plate and working with the government on potential US debt default scenarios and bought first republic's assets (which is largely due to their size but still respectable). Dimon is also extremely competent, despite his boomer WFH policies (but again that's just because of his age).

In contrast -- Goldman is no longer a BB for countless obvious reasons. Their decks look like some analyst who hasn't slept for a week threw up on it. That is all.

Jefferies?

I know this is only my experience with one Citi team but boy have they not been up to standard

RBC’s growth has stalled.

TD is growing pretty fast

Probably the only good list I’ve seen on here.

Houlihan Lokey?

Going to get ms but BGL chicago doesnt deserve all the hate it gets here. The cleveland office does, but chicago has made a lot of good senior hires and have been fine wlb wise. HR is pretty small and they still just hired a lateral recruiter - maybe farfetched but could scoop up more good talent with bb/eb layoffs

Regarding bulges: 

Agree on WFC. They have shown a remarkable willingness to invest in the IB franchise over the past few years and have made many key hires across multiple verticals. They clearly want to be a player here and once everything is rolling their balance sheet will do a lot of the talking. 

Completely disagree on MS. Strong argument MS has been the best run bulge over the past 4-5 years. Their purchases in wealth and ability to build the balance sheet was really prescient and showed great ability to execute on the thesis. Look at the stock performance if you feel differently. They have lost ground to JP over past 10 years but so has everyone and they have really gained on GS as GS has screwed up past few years. 

GS is hurting right now. The partners dont believe in DS and he completely missed going all in on consumer. All the deals he made with Apple have terrible economics and who knows what type of loss they will book on Greensky. They also just messed up the SVB deal that sent the banks into a crisis. 

BofA keeps trending up through consistent investment and improvement, year after year... although it helps the "tier" they were in (Citi, CS, BARC,  DB) all have made unforced errors past few years. That helps you move up when everyone around you keeps falling. 

Where's Moelis? They took all of SVB's top talent for tech, which was arguably SVB's best group. Ardea, Baird, and WF are killing it recently though, not a bad list overall

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Greenhill on the decline?

Incoming SA, so curious on people's thoughts

I can only comment on BBs 

Wells: I think they'll be a very competitive contender going forward. Some great senior hires across various groups and Charlie Scharf has showed commitment to growing the IB division out. Balance sheet can be flexed to win mandates, and getting the asset cap removed would be huge for the bank. 

JPM: No comment, they're winning the big bank race by miles 

MS: Has been doing much better than GS. The wealth management transactions has really helped the bank and they've been very well ran by James Gorman. I think IB division has been slacking just a bit, but I think once market rebounds they'll be back to normal. 

Goldman: Big L with the consumer expansion and I don't think people at the firm support DJ Soloman. They are still knocking it out of the park in IB but that's what GS does. But super curious how the bank will be overall few years from now. 

BofA: they're doing what they do. super slow when it comes to everything, very boring, but it's been working for them. 

Citi: idk what they are doing. they always took pride over the "being very international" bank but have been closing locations throughout. When it comes to IB, once again idk. They aren't in the top 10 of league tables this year 

Not sure about MS. They were no 2 on M&A league tables and fees last year. I wouldn’t look too much into 2023 YTD given the material drop in overall deal making. Any firm with a few good deals this year will rank higher than trend (CVP). For shareholders, MS is the best run BB, check stock price return in the last decade. Quick look at the market today and you’ll see they were on the monster ONEOK/Magellan deal and TPG’s acquisition of Angelo Gordon.

Congrats on Baird lmao

What’s the outlook for TD in next few years?

TD but no RBC (literally fastest growing North America bank?)

what about citi's tech franchise? heard that although as a whole ibd is shrinking, citi is investing more into the tech group

PWP for sure. RX is on the rise, poaching partners/MDs everywhere, lights out years recently, etc.

Edit: Didn’t even see that yesterday they just poached the COO of GS M&A. Wild