Has the stock market hit bottom yet?
Of course no one has a crystal ball - But we have some very qualified people in this forum and it would be very helpful to hear your thoughts
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my take is no. macro trends are anyone’s guess but my simplified logic is: We are in for a long period of non-zero rates to combat higher inflation. covid accelerated the shift to the digital world and the retirement of boomers. the shift to digital makes it tougher to recruit labor, especially lower level, in person, manual labor, hence why there is a shortage. in labor shortage, employees get the bargaining power, driving wages up and further increasing prices as they can spend more. not to mention companies raise prices when labor is more expensive. more retirement shifts money from savings (invested in assets like stocks) to being spent in the real world. all of this is creating higher prices, which will require higher rates to slow inflation. the “overvalued” stock market and 0% rate world we had for the years up to covid is gone and we are in for a period of lower equity valuations. profitability of companies will be key going forward as raising capital will be tough for an extended period of time. im a buyer of value, commodities, and anything with a nice dividend
Thanks! Makes a lot of sense. For a noob like me, would you recommend investing in S&P index tracker? If so, when should I enter the market?
Try UPRO instead
my general rule of thumb is 90/10, all in SPY. 90% shares you never touch, 10% leaps you play based off macro. wouldn’t be holding options now though
Ofc not, real estate bubble is about to collapse and things will go tits up after.
My guess (and we are all just guessing), is the market drops Monday after a small run up last week. Then there will be a favorable August CPI release Tuesday driving the market higher. That combined with a favorable earnings season around the corner will drive markets higher again. So lowest we’ll see for sometime will be Monday.
Looks like the markets are still crashing - My bet is that the market will bottom in December
Most accurate comment on this post. Let’s go Brandon
Yes!!! sig heil trump!!!
Went from 2k-8k cause I bought November amazon puts in early august. Still holding and looking to make 20k when amazon hits 95. Expecting mkts to AT LEAST test June lows and high probability of going lower before a short killing bounce. Keep in mind I'm an idiot and just an s&t intern lol
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve."
Rebalance every year. Never be at the mercy of the market again.
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