RX: Different Types of Models

Would it be possible to have a brief overview of the different types of models in Restructuring?
 

New (1 week) on the job so want to check what experiences others have. So far have heard of:

- entity priority model / debt waterfalls

- 13 week cash flow

- recap / refi model

39 Comments
 

nope, i think what we do is much more interesting than IB side of RX. plus my firm also allows me involvement in different teams (private equity group, M&A etc) so lots of learning / experience variety.

sure no doubt we get paid less but im 100% WFH and my partners / MDs are 100% much more chill than everything ive heard about bankers

 

What do you mean by not involved in situation (unless you meant valuation)? Aren't RX Consultants and RX Bankers typically working somewhat together when it comes to things like negotiations with creditors or not really? What would your thoughts be on an A&M RX Consultant looking to jump to an RX IB like HL RX? Feasible or impossible? How about from a lower-tier RX IB like JEF/Piper/Baird? Appreciate any opinions and insight.

 

It's rarer, but will happen. As others have noted, it would occur on a debtor side mandate if the debtor hasn't engaged an RX consultant. Oftentimes though, the lift from the banker is much less than it would be for the consultant. As a banker you'd be relying on the Company's FP&A or treasury team to put it together and you might diligence the inputs/outputs. Bankers aren't going to be getting a dump of cash transactions and then expected to figure out a TWCF

 

13 week CF models definitely handled by the RX consultants; they're the ones doing the actual top line projections etc. 

Off the top of my head: 

  • Recap / refi models and debt waterfalls as you've mentioned. Be prepared to run 100 incrementally different scenarios; one of my deals had a couple hundred rows just on the control panel / assumptions page. This also includes models to deal with warrants/options that are sometimes part of the RX consideration
  • Liquidity / CF models in the sense that you take the consultants' numbers and run it through your new capital structure / financing assumptions etc.
  • Comps and every so often a full blown valuation that, in my opinion, is more rigorous than in M&A given it has to hold up in court
  • And once in a blue moon some random esoteric models: I've done a stochastic model, a customer lifetime valuation model, and a particularly fiendish valuation of a bespoke option
 

LMD

13 week CF models definitely handled by the RX consultants; they're the ones doing the actual top line projections etc. 

Off the top of my head: 

  • Recap / refi models and debt waterfalls as you've mentioned. Be prepared to run 100 incrementally different scenarios; one of my deals had a couple hundred rows just on the control panel / assumptions page. This also includes models to deal with warrants/options that are sometimes part of the RX consideration
  • Liquidity / CF models in the sense that you take the consultants' numbers and run it through your new capital structure / financing assumptions etc.
  • Comps and every so often a full blown valuation that, in my opinion, is more rigorous than in M&A given it has to hold up in court
  • And once in a blue moon some random esoteric models: I've done a stochastic model, a customer lifetime valuation model, and a particularly fiendish valuation of a bespoke option

Can you share with us the structure of the bespoke option out of curiosity?

 
Most Helpful

Like others have mentioned, when I was in RX IB I did some of the following:

  • Valuation models for Debtor in bankruptcy (DCF, transaction comps, trading comps, etc.)
  • Recap models showing different capital structures and feeding these into the operating model to look at how these proposed structures would affect FCF, leverage, etc. 
  • A ton of PF cap structures showing the effects of different transactions (unsubs, priming debt, discounted tenders, new money etc.)
  • Different variations of some sort of "debt comps" to try to determine what the market yield/pricing should be for new securities (looking at similar paper by leverage/LTVs/Credit Ratings)
  • Liquidity rolls to stress-test a company we were looking at pitching to see in what scenarios they'd hit a wall (not able to address a maturity, bust a covenant, run out of cash, etc.)
  • Modeling different credit doc baskets (Permitted Debt/Permitted Liens/Permitted RPs & Investments, etc.). Either to see whether or not they could do a certain transaction, or in negotiations for what baskets should be included in new financing and finding that balance between keeping creditors happy/protected and affording the debtor the flexibility they need to run the business 
  • When working with a creditor/sponsor we would model the expected returns/IRRs of new financing for them, sometimes people even did LBO models.
  • Other. The cool thing about RX is that it can include models/transactions from other groups as well - there are plenty of distressed M&A transactions and bespoke financings that can require merger models or models for convertible debt/equity financings/mezz debt/securitizations that get really interesting.

Good luck with the new gig and if somebody is working on something cool you can totally ask them to show you around the model if they have some spare time.

 

I think this list is fairly comprehensive but would also add that your PF cap structure models can also include showing breakdowns of the different tranches of debt through the various holders.  A big part of out of court restructurings is not only looking at the new cap structure, but also how it's divided between the different negotiating parties and what the value / security level / recoveries for each party look like.

 

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