What are you investing in?
Receiving my bonus soon and wondering where to place. Here's what my portfolio looks like right now and where I have been dollar cost averaging down. Let me know what you guys are investing in these days and why:
S&P Index: increasing as % of total holdings
Prosus: I'm very long on Tencent (probably one of the best companies worldwide) and PRX offers a good alternative to buy. Been averaging down
Alibaba: just looks so cheap right now. Been averaging down
Amazon: starting to enter progressively, great capital allocator and risk taker, been willing to get a position for a while, I don't know if timing is optimal though so going slowly
Berkshire Hathaway: starting to enter progressively, alternative to S&P index with a private angle. I see it as less risky than my other positions as well
Crypto: BTC/ETH, because I am a tech nerd and like the risk profile/profit potential. I already have solid positions in MATIC, FTM, SOL, AVAX so will "derisk" a bit with further but limited ETH/BTC investments
Any other thoughts welcome
Comments (59)
SQQQ, SOXS, and QQQ puts
Typical retail trader hive mind muh "fed" and "rate hike"
Lol get off your high horse acting like you're some big name investor. You're a retail trader too unless you've made 50 million already. I'm not holding these forever, and I don't expect a 2008 crash currently like perma bears do. I do believe that we will test the october lows at some point in April and bottom from there. If I'm right, what I'm holding will benefit greatly. Perma bulls like you don't realize there's no reason to be married to one direction when you can play both sides. Let it play out and you'll have your answers
50% portfolio s&p, 25% portfolio Nifty 50 and other 25% UK stocks (Rolls Royce, Lloyds, Haleon, Unilever)
DCA into $VOO and $VTI, and just invested into a 12-month CD paying 5%APR (could buy a 6-month/1 year treausry yielding ~5% as well, no state tax).
why not a diversified basket of crypto?
Why not a diversified basket of beanie babies?
DCA into ETH, BTC Cash, VUG & RIC
98% SPY and 2% whatever other stocks I know personally. Set it and forget it. I know it's vapid and boring, but I'm not going to pretend I trade for a living or do enough research to justify a random allocation.
Rare fish
Few.
5 year strip + atm calls on spx
Me and my spouses 401k totals about 1 million and it's 50% vanguard total market and 50% vanguard extended market.
In our taxable, I have about 100k of vested bank stock that I just leave alone. We then have about 200k in tax exempt New York bonds and 500k in vanguard extended market. Rest of my money I keep in cash cause I wanna buy a house in a couple years.
My advice is to follow what I do and just dollar cost average into your favorite vanguard fund. You will beat the returns of 85% of every other mutual or hedge fund. You will never get rich quick this way, but you will retire comfortably and with no risk or critical thinking wasted on picking stocks.
The fact that you are still putting money in crypto, confirms where we are in the cycle. Stupid money still needs to be washed out.
Recessions aren't just inevitable, they are necessary to shake out stupid behavior.
Such a trite and overused line of thinking. You have a lot to learn about how this works. The same people still arguing for more tightness are going to be the first to complain about how the fed went too far and now you have a deflationary disaster on your hands because you didn't understand how leads & lags to policy work. Careful what you wish for.
You may be the only person in the whole world who knows with certainty what's next!?
Considering monetary policy works "with long and variable lags" - the rest of us have no idea where we end up this year.
But the risks are clear. Recession, or persistent elevated inflation, or both. I'm positioned for all scenarios.
Whenever someone says you have a lot to learn, usually means they themselves don't have a clue as they are so far up their own ass. Eliminate that from the vocab, and instead back it up with fact. I'll drop my Venmo below for that advice. Also I do agree with RF guy, recessions and downturns do correct euphoric behaviors. During expansion and especially at peak, regulations (whatever you wanna call it) are lax. NINJA loans are a good example of the last downturn. You saying that statement is false?
LMM pe funds. $100k buy in
Don't have a ton of capital to play with at the moment, as I havnt started AN1 job yet, but I'm all in on TQQQ. See no reason I'll need the capital in the short term, so why not lock it up for some (almost guaranteed in the long run?) leveraged returns
Careful. All the investing geniuses on this site will come out and yell at you about how dangerous it is to do that as a cope for their own shortcomings and "risk-aversion"
QQQ is up 30% since COVID (Jan 2020)
TQQQ is DOWN 25% over the same period
Who wouldn't want exposure to that time decay!!!?? Brilliant
Leveraged ETF's are def fine. People overstate the risks too much. The rewards can actually be pretty good, as long as one isn't stupid. TQQQ and SOXL are definitely really nice instruments. Just have to be careful about when you long term hold them vs swing trading them. In secular bull markets like since 2009, the best thing you could've done was buy TQQQ and SOXL and hold. People love to talk about the decay, but the decay actually works in your favor when you can sustain multiple green days in a row and get more than 3x the return of the underlying.
In drawdowns like 2022, they can def fuck you over. Was much better swing trading for weeks and months instead of holding in 2022. So just make sure you DCA and not lump sum. And get out of them before actual market crashes (2008, 2000, 1974 etc.). Easier said than done obviously.
I'm personally taking the opposite side of the trade for the next 1.5-2 months, as I believe there's still a little more downside. Then, I'm apeing into TQQQ and SOXL because I believe a massive melt up is going to happen after the Fed announces the pause in either May or June.
you're missing the point. levered ETF's don't do what they are advertised to do, especially if held over a long period of time.
high volatility = bad result for levered ETF
low volatility = great result for levered ETF (obv, only if you ALSO picked the right direction the market is going!).
As we have seen in the high volatility since COVID - even though QQQ has gone up - TQQQ has gone down. That's not what you're in it for!
So if you buy levered ETF - you need to not only be confident in market direction, but also confident in low volatility.
Both seem to be especially bad bets right now.
You're completely correct on LETFs but wrong on your broader market analysis. The lows are in on SPX on Oct.13th. The meat of the move upwards will already have been made by the time the fed "pauses" if anything that will be when smart money begins to trim positions. The market will always front-run these type of events.
Anyone buying bond funds?
Treasuries and dollar cost average into the S&P over the course of the next two years.
Call me crazy, but if you can earn 5% holding cash, why tf would you place your bonus anywhere else in this uncertain period? If you think there is a 10% chance of a -25% drawdown and a 90% chance of a 8% return, you are better off holding cash right now. Short term Treasuries beat basically everything last year.
But no, you are a genius, so instead I might recommend buying Arkk and following Cathy woods thesis.
you mean short-term treasuries I assume?
I don't think it matters. Short or long term while yields are high, and long term would be a great hedge.
Another VP who has no idea how markets work. This site continues to amaze me. Where'd you pull that 10/90 analysis from? lol
I pulled it from the fact that no one has a clue where markets go. Anyone that claims to is either a liar or a moron. It was to illustrate uncertainty and expected value to readers who clearly haven't seen a market downturn ever. Clearly you seem to believe markets only go up and a large drawdown isn't possible. I'll take the other side and say it could be possible.
My point isn't to take a position on the S&P, my point is to illustrate the tradeoff between a risk-free 5% and the expected value of a market return. Market is up 4.5% this year already, think it will go another 5 to be 9-10% market return this year? Maybe, I don't know. What I do know is there are a substantial amount of intelligent people that assert there will be a large drawdown/ correction in the future right now, so that makes me uncertain. Folks like Cliff Asness, Charlie Munger/Buffet, Ray Dalio, Jim Cramer, Michael Burry, all seem to believe stocks are overvalued and there's going to be some poor returns in equities. But no you are right, 0% chance of a market correction and OP should yolo into crypto.
The arrogance of this forum sometimes is mind blowing. Do you think the S&P will end the year up 5%+ from here? How certain are you? Advocating someone puts a bonus in short-term treasuries and dollar cost averages into equities doesn't display a lack of trading knowledge, it shows I'm not some college kid who got lucky buying Tesla and now thinks they know how markets work.
Are you buying a treasury ETF?
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