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Long: SIVR - Silver Short: UAL - United Airlines
Long - AGU Short - RIMM
you're short RIMM at 0.5x PEG? good luck with that...
Love this one. You sir, have made a shit ton of money over the last 18 months. My fund has made a killing on AGU and Jana partners is helping to unlock even more value. Love it.
How has that Travelzoo short worked out for you? Up 75% in the last 3 weeks...
"Doing long on silver is the worst idea I've ever heard. It's at a 30 year high, double the price it was last year." Do things never triple or quadruple?
His only point is that commodities have experienced a significant run up over the past 18 months. Your top long position is Silver? Not very creative but would be interested to hear why that is your top idea.
There are a number of reasons to be long silver, or precious metals in general, and the significant run up is only in aggs, which is mostly a result of the absolute shite weather conditions that have destroyed a large amount of crops. Anyways, without going into a doomsday rant and the debasement of the U.S. dollar, it would be a good idea to be long silver because 1) U.S. dollars are extremely over-bought, while the Euro is extremely over-sold. Meaning the dollar is much stronger than it should be from a fundamental and technical view, 2) central banks around the globe are cutting interest rates and stimulating the markets with quantitative easing, etc, which will eventually force the U.S. into taking QE3 measures (most likely after the election, although Obama wants to keep Bernanke as chairman while Mitt wants to sack him - wouldn't be surprised if Bernanke stimulated the markets to give Obama the advantage to protect his job, a.k.a QE before the election) because if it decides not to take any measures than they are at risk of putting our economy into a deflationary state...which is not really the look after the 08-09 collapse (this is suppose to be a boom period...haha...ha). There are plenty of other reasons to be long precious metals, and to whoever said prices have doubled are implying that precious metals are in a bubble...take a hike. If metals were in a bubble then mining stocks would be at all time highs, and surprisingly they are at extremely cheap levels right now and have a massive amount of catching up to do. Enough ranting though...
Long: physical precious metals and mining stocks Short: REIT's and Corn futures
I've been:
L -- ARMH S -- MIPS
might be time to get out.
Long: BAC, SCCO Short: Don't short
my point is that "it's ridiculous because it's doubled" is not a legitimate reason not to buy something
i don't think of silver as a "commodity" in the way wheat or corn is- so i think commodity comparisons are not particularly meaningful. also, i think using historical precedents for gold/silver/commodities during a market environment that hasn't been seen in a long long time would also be a mistake.
why am i bullish? if you view silver as gold-light, which isn't that inaccurate when macro themes are dominating, then I think it's a very obvious long trade on 5-10 year time horizon. everyone is trying to diversity out of the dollar long term, and since the euro isn't a great alternative either at this point, central banks will probably be a bid under gold for a long time. which would probably take silver with it. china itself said that it would love to purchase more gold in spot markets but it can't, because in that kind of size it would move markets far too much. short term, for similar reasons, I don't think corrections will be particularly severe because of the long term situation. this is more speculative, but dollar/euro panic/trouble could spell way more upside for silver/gold.
Currently I'm... Longing: Dividend stocks Shorting: nothing yet
Long: Pfizer, LVMH, Apple
Short: BX
Since the management company doesn't really have any need for growth capital an IPO serves solely as a liquidity event for the partners/management, all of whom take their chips off the table but continue to draw high salaries ($6.7mm in 2010 for Schwarzman) and/or retire. Add to that all the new MDs you'll need to keep the business going, who want either big cash bonuses, big equity grants, or both. In 2010, compensation expense at BX was 104.2% of revenue!
Finally, most alternative managers big enough to IPO have already hit critical mass and can't add AUM without adding costs. T.Rowe Price can add a bunch of AUM and add backoffice and sales staff; BX can't raise twice as many PE funds. KKR, BX and others are trying to diversifying into other types of AM ; we'll see if it works.
yep. I agree with all this, and it's particularly true for large, bloated mega-PE firms. The LPs that they rely on, those with the REALLY BIG money to invest like 500m in a single fund, are not accepting the same terms and not investing as freely as they used to. "other fee income" and other juicy bonuses to the business are disintegrating. LPs are also realizing that size is the enemy of performance.
disclaimer: I'm holding LVMH and apple but not the other two positions
pink sheets for LVMH?
If your going to long silver and think it'll bring some peace of mind, make sure you look into owning physical before trusting any claims that the ETFs out there are actually backed by physical. I'm not saying they are not but I would take a stash of bars,coins or ingots over a "promise" any day, especially considering the annual cost of holding ETF shares as well as the taxation implications.
Long on Nike
Why short RIMM? Forget about PEG ratios........Nobody wants a Blackberry anymore and when they lose their dominance as the phone issued by companies (companies are already moving away) its over for RIMM
I agree to an extent with this (not enough to actually short the stock though). RIMM's main dominance is due to corporate sales (major companies have recently announced they are opening up to Iphones and Droid). Their market share is on the decline in the US. However, if they are able to innovate, it really only takes one blockbuster phone to bring them back.
I am long BAC for the long haul.
Long: EWZ Short: NFLX
Lots of good reasons supporting my "un-creative" long SIVR (the closest you can get to physical with an ETF). I would also add that silver futures are currently in backwardation meaning that institutions want the physical silver RIGHT NOW. Not next month or one year from now, but right now. Supply is not meeting demand. People who want to delivery in the futures market are being paid 20% - 80% premiums to avoid taking delivery.
By the way if we are keeping score: SIVR is up 0.6% UAL is down 2.0%
long Corn Short Wheat
Noth sure if both will go up or down but I think Corn's undersupply and overusage will lead to an outperfromance
Long BIDU Short GNK (recently closed)
anybody else chomping at the bit for facebook and twitter to IPO, trade at ridiculous valuations, and short the shit out of them?
Hopefully you have plenty of capital to play with, balls of steel, and the patience of a Saint. I'm not touching that shit.
Long IDT. Very strong risk/reward profile based on sum of parts with a future spinoff as a catalyst.
Currently no actionable short ideas that I feel comfortable doing.
Long QCOM, Archer Daniels
Short INTC, Expedia
Is the EXPE short reactionary to news about them spinning out TripAdvisor? Or fundamental driven?
Might wanna cover that Expedia short position.
To those longing BAC, why in the world would you?
How you ever looked even glimpsed through their 10-k? If Citi is a $4 stock, wth is BAC doing up there.
Anyway, Im long NVDA and CHK and short TSO
How are you making a comparison of Citi to BAC based on stock price? For starters Citi has over 30B shares outstanding compared to just over 10B for BofA. Additionally, what do you see in their 10-K? They do still have significant exposure to mortgage putbacks but the liability has already subsided considerably from just a few months ago. BAC could be a great long-term play, time will only tell.
What's your price target for CHK? I was in around $20 when it was trading below the PV of its proven reserves but largely exited my position. Based on management numbers, adding the unproven reserves put it around $70 but I wasn't sure how I wanted to value them. I tried finding comp transactions of similar reserves to figure out a $/mcfe multiple but didn't have the time to pursue. Would like to hear any input...
Long: BRCM, NVDA, TXN Short: MXIM, AMD
long - ARO short - NFLX
Long: Nothing Short: SP500 etf, NFLX
There is a bubble being formed and its time just a matter of time before it pops.
Nice, agree with these. And was long silver up until thursday, left some money on the table due to yesterday's run but oh well, can't win em all. Actually bought some May 38 puts on the SLV so will see what happens there.
Also, long oil.
Long: Ford Motor Co.
Short: No ideas, atm.
all IMO.
Long Ford, Short GM.
(Long-term)
Long ATW, GMXR, APA
Short PCLN, OPEN, NFLX
quote=alexpasch
Long ATW, GMXR, APA
Short PCLN, OPEN, NFLX[/quote]
Ballsy, but I agree with you on OPEN and NFLX. Fundamentally these things are insanely valued and technicals are finally starting to soften up.
Long Miners Short Refiners
For everyone short NFLX
http://seekingalpha.com/article/252316-whitney-tilson-why-we-covered-ou…
The valuation is ridiculous, but the analogy that its like standing in front of a broken train and waiting for it stop is certainly accurate.
Long: Dean Foods Short: None
Margins have been at a historical low for DF due to milk prices, but they've still been generating healthy cash flow, enough to pay down debt and continue operating until the milk market normalizes again. Supermarkets have been using milk as a loss leader and input costs for milk production have been unusually high. I'm not sure if the first trend will reverse, but commodities will definitely not hold up as high for the long term, meaning margins will bump up despite only getting relief from one end. Also, there have been talks about a potential buy-out, which I think DF is a decent candidate for. The high amount of debt the company carries is a little disconcerting, but equity can be magnified greatly through multiples and debt pay downs. My price target is $16 on a one year horizon.
Disagree, this is pretty much a bet that agricultural prices will come back down. I think we are in a secular uptrend, but even excluding that, the shift towards private label products and loss leader status is here to stay. I don't follow this company closely so know nothing about the buyout.
long: RTEC, LHCG are both positioned favorably to undeniable secular trends, strong contract backlog for RTEC (best in class process control instruments for semis), clean balance sheet, LHCG has strong market position in favorable demographic areas for senior housing, will also benefit from relatively strong economic rebound in those areas (people able to pay for senior housing). tax-beneficial business from medicare, etc. clean balance sheet as well. both names have lagged the market median
short: IFSIA, DMND are both overleveraged firms with downside input cost exposure to higher oil and food prices, thin margins, and little BS cash to bridge the gap. their stocks have shot up well above intrinsic value for these guys right now.
Long ZAGG.
Short CWLR... their spectrum is shit, they won't be generating any FCF for a while, Sprint is likely going to partner with LightSquared and dump their relationship with CWLR and the space is extremely competitive. To top it off, it's never a good sign when your Chairman resigns...
Huge short interest so there may be a squeeze, but this company is going down to the dumps.Might not be a 0 if they can sell their spectrum for enough, but it'll be damn close...
their spectrum is not the best but it's not shit and has value that's just going to keep increasing. sprint going with LightSquared is speculative. retail part of biz is competitive but wholesale demand for their spectrum will only continue to increase and cause the value of the spectrum to go up. agree that executives resigning is usually not a good sign, but their new chairman/ceo is also a wireless stud.
transitioning from wimax to lte will be painful.
overall, i don't think it's that cut and dried as a short.
i win
Long: PFE, MGM, C, F
long: healthcare sector short: AAPL (in august after a summer pop)
Short Apple? That is actually a company with a healthy p/e and great balance sheet. I'd rather short some other tech names like AMZN and CRM with incredibly high p/es.
Screw anyone that trashed my long silver play when this thread started. You can also check out the profits on my short UAL.
Just picked up EQU - an oil/gas E&P company. Used to be a royalty trust and had some management issues for years (dividend exceeded CF) and almost went bankrupt when prices dropped but there's completely new management, they just transitioned to a corporation, and management is 100% focused on shareholder value versus meeting short term investor dividend expectations. Perfect comp is PWE, as their Canada assets are geographically close, similar cost structures, and very similar oil/gas mix. Trading at 4x this year's estimated FCF (yielding 25%) and below PV of proven reserves with its current price of $7.75 (also- its proven preserves PV10 assumes $80 oil and $4.25 gas which I think is conservative). At PWE's multiples of production and proven reserves, you get an implied value of $22/share. This also puts no value on its Mississippi shale assets. Its operating partner there just went bankrupt and they were able to acquire a huge amount of additional reserves (98% proven and already producing) for farrrr below replacement cost. Shale asset value could be huge, as Chesapeake and Sandridge have adjacent assets to these, are already drilling, and have experienced 90%+ IRRs on wells. Easily the most insanely asymetric risk/reward stock I can find in today's frothy market.
(long term) Long: IMAX since $13, lithium miners Short: None but agree with OPEN and NFLX
Ford looks WAY undervalued at 9.26 (P/E of 1.96, I'm a little green on investing but if the current earnings stay consistent and don't move up or down, doesn't that mean that they will earn the value of the entire company every 2 years? PPS/EPS, means for every $2 of value, Ford earns $1, right? This looks insane to me, especially considering earnings don't appear to be slowing down but rather picking up. Someone correct my thought process here.)
As a heavy Ford investor at the moment, this reasoning is largely ignorant. I don't mean that in an insulting way since I know you said you're new to investing, but sometimes a P/E ratio can be very deceiving, so here's a quick lesson, haha. The reason why Ford earned north of $4 per share in the trialing twelve month period is because they decided to eliminate an enormous valuation allowance that gave them a one-time gain of like $2 per share - forgive me for not taking the time to dig up the actual number. But this $2 per share really doesn't exist, so the P/E isn't really as low as it looks, though it's still very low. It's probably more like 4-5, which even for a mass manufacture auto company is pretty tiny. Anything under $9 I've been loading up, the stock is worth at least $12 in my opinion but the market is in no hurry to recognize the value given how scary Europe is at the moment. That said, I'm still long an absurd amount of shares.
Current ideas that won't put me in jail or get me fired: Long: AGU, TGT, F, BCR Short: GRPN, FB, MOS, SHLD
Good call, just noticed this thread, but looks like you've done well
.
Why F over GM
.
Why anyone would short a good company is beyond me. And Long: BODY and SBUX, Ford, RGR (just bought on the 10% drop) And perhaps TPX, ANF,
Short- NFLX barnes and noble but short interest is too high
"I'm short pearls of wisdom"
Long: OCZ, ENZN, TSLA Short: RIMM, CMG, AAPL
Dear: Whoever pulled the trigger on my calls
You're welcome.
To those who haven't: Buy ENZN before the 6th, dump it on the 10th, buy calls on the 11th, dump them on the 20th, buy puts on the 20th, Dump Jan 7. Enjoy your extra 25%.
I owned some OCZ, stock did really well over the last month. I like owning FIO on a longer term basis.
What do y'all think about going long on Acadia? With the recent news about the success of pimavanserin, it looks like they are at the forefront of the biotech industry.
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