Let's Talk Bitcoin

I bought a little over a grand of BTC back when it was worth ~10k and it has been ripping since then. If you don't keep up with bitcoin it's around 13.6K a bitcoin now. Paypal just allowed bitcoin on their platform, Asian banks are beginning to allow crypto trading, companies like Square are literally putting tens of millions of bitcoin on their balance sheet - it seems like it won't be long before bitcoin explodes with institutional money flowing in and more acceptance by the mainstream. I'm considering putting a much more significant amount of money in.

What do you all think? Anyone else on the bitcoin train?

Comments (102)

 
  • Prospect in IB-M&A
Oct 27, 2020 - 1:04pm

Bitcoin transactions are insanely expensive. As the trading volume increase, mining fees increase, making adoption for everyday purchases unlikely. Whales can easily manipulate the market. Most miners are now Chinese, which means that CCP could launch a 51% attack and take control of the ledger book.

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Oct 27, 2020 - 1:07pm

Taking control of the ledger block is WAY harder than it sounds, if it was so easy it would've been done a while ago. And the more money that pours into bitcoin, the harder it gets 

 
  • Prospect in IB-M&A
Oct 27, 2020 - 1:13pm

Bitcoin's valuation doesn't really matter, as institutions and individuals buy bitcoins that have already been mined.

https://news.bitcoin.com/65-of-global-bitcoin-hashrate-concentrated-in-… this article is dated May 7, 2020. 65% of the global hashrate is concentrated in China.

:

About half of the country's hash rate is produced in just one place, the autonomous Xinjiang region, which makes up 35.76% of the global total.

Let's say JPMorgan AM buys billions of $ worth of bitcoins. CCP wants to fuck with JPM. CCP takes control of the mining centers, either through force or using pre-installed software or hardware backdoors. 51% attack, a new transaction is created, which leads JPM to send billions of $ to a Chinese wallet.

 
Oct 29, 2020 - 7:29am

Given I have little to no exposure here, can you explain the relationship between transaction costs and what mining fees are and who incurs those fees? I'm genuinely curious about the flow which allows a single transaction to be made and priced at what it is.

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Oct 27, 2020 - 1:29pm

I think we are seeing greater global acceptance though. Microstrategy put $165 million of bitcoin on their balance sheet, PayPal is allowing bitcoin transactions, etc. It isn't going to happen overnight, but it is a trend that isn't slowing down. I don't think it will ever replace fiat currency, but I think there will be a point where it is recognized as a legitimate store of value and a very effective way to transfer money (for example if you live in a nation that is falling apart and you need to flee with all your assets, what better way than to put it in bitcoin and simply remember your wallet and catchphrase?)

 
  • VP in S&T - FI
Oct 27, 2020 - 1:55pm

Gold has a pretty large negative carry1-2% per year in normal times and 6% + back in March, unless you own the physical.physical gold is basically impossible to get out of the country, and you pay a large bid/offer and subject to the physical basis when selling. Countries like India have banned gold imports/exports and there's precedent for that to happen anywhere

 

I'm always surprised how few people are willing to put 1-5% of their portfolio into something when clearly it has the staying power and didn't fizzle out after 2017. Even JPM is putting out price predictions, and DBS (a large asian investment bank) is building a crypto exchange 

 

Happily long a few bitcoins from around 4500 and only regret not owning more

 

 
Oct 28, 2020 - 10:07pm

I don't get gold. Gold has no intrinsic value (well, that's not entirely true since there are some industrial uses, but nothing that justifies the price of gold). If society collapses, owning gold in its electronic form is a worthless investment. If society collapses and you have physical gold 1) you'd need starving people to accept gold as a form of currency rather than food, water, and firearms and 2) you'd need to be able to defend your physical gold with violent force. If anything, gold ownership in a collapsed society is a liability--makes you at least marginally more likely to be killed. 

So, the #1 reason I hate gold investing is that I can't get passed the idea that it's one of the most ridiculous asset investments on this planet. My brain won't let me get passed that.

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Nov 2, 2020 - 3:45pm

Right?

If you're worried about societal collapse, buy some guns and start a local militia on a secluded island with arable land & potable water, because no one is going to be bartering with gold and/or bitcoin :s

 

 

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  • VP in S&T - FI
Oct 27, 2020 - 2:26pm

My point is that if you buy a gold etf in your pa, or gold futures and roll yourself for 20 years, you're going to pay 20-40% in negative carry. Also take a look at gold performance in 2008 and and in March, it gets sold as collateral to meet margin calls. Of course btc didn't hold up either, but it's definitely more speculative and I'm not arguing it isn't

 

I'm not bearish gold or anything, but at the end of the day it's a real interest rates going lower trade, while bitcoin is some new asset class which which could be the backbone of a digital currency ecosystem

 

central banks from the ECB to the FED are researching their own digital dollars, and it's almost guaranteed some form of this will be adopted 

 

I'm not some bitcoin/crypto evangelist, I just think it's a great macro trade that i wouldn't want to miss 

 
Oct 28, 2020 - 5:01pm

Here's what I think is going to keep Bitcoin and cryptos from going mainstream (at least for payment purposes): why would I buy a pizza with Bitcoin when that Bitcoin could be worth two pizzas by the time I am done paying? People bought and used Bitcoin for its intended purpose when Bitcoin first started, but now most people are buying Bitcoin for investment (gambling) purposes. That only leaves non-investors who would be willing to part with Bitcoin, and good luck getting them to go through the trouble of buying Bitcoin on Coinbase, transferring it to a Ledger, etc. That's too cumbersome.

 
Oct 28, 2020 - 10:01pm

This is exactly correct. For a currency to be "usable" it needs to keep a relatively steady value. As long as it rises and falls 30% in a month it will be nothing more than a speculative asset.

Array

 
Oct 28, 2020 - 9:59pm

I buy about $5 of BTC a week and have for a while just as an extreme hedge. BTC is really nothing more than a general asset and I don't think will ever become a widely accepted currency. There are other cryptos that are better for use in transactions. 

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Oct 29, 2020 - 4:24am

The problem with BTC is that the free float sucks. (think Saudi Aramco)

I don't particularly like the idea of investing into an instrument where other players have a significant leverage over me.

Unless you are a reddit level "BTC bro", I suggest staying away from BTC. The market is filled with opportunities now, why start 5 steps backwards when you can start on the starting line? 

 
  • Associate 2 in IB-M&A
Oct 29, 2020 - 4:59pm

I'm looking at alternative besides bitcoin, focusing on those that have a high level of liquidity, low to no transaction cost and viable use case for widespread adoption over the next decade. Many platforms/coins will and have surpassed bitcoin in functionality. Bitcoin is just the hot name that everyone knows making it the talk of the town. Bitcoin is great as speculative asset if you don't mid the risk but it is way too volatile to garner any widespread adoption as an everyday payment mechanism (for now). People don't want to have to check the price of Bitcoin to make sure they aren't in the red before making a transaction.

 
  • Investment Analyst in HF - Other
Nov 1, 2020 - 8:13pm

Have been involved w/ Bitcoin/crypto since 2011 from mining to node infra to trading.

Ran U.S. based crypto OTC desk for high growth startup and moved over to crypto hedge fund - can verify for mod. Paid for college on BTC, vacations, nice savings, live comfy etc. etc. 

 

The amount of outright false or just moronic comments in this thread is kind of lol. I can't tell if it's true ignorance or what, but reading the comments here makes me sadpepe.gif

Anyways, obv am Bitcoin bull.. BUY BTC and go do another round of reading kids. 

 
  • Quant in HF - Other
Nov 2, 2020 - 9:51am

I don't really give a shit about bitcoin and have never owned it, but it's hilarious seeing crypto startup bros pretend they're truly passionate about crypto technology to hide the fact they just wanna be the ones to create the next hot coin

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jan 4, 2021 - 1:47pm

update from the OP: I ended up putting more than half my net worth in bitcoin after this post and am up over 100%. I do not intend on taking profits yet. Everyone who tried to tell me this was a bad idea can suck my dick :)

 
  • Prospect in IB-M&A
Jan 4, 2021 - 1:56pm

bubble

You may still want to cash out some of your gains now and reinvest when the price has crashed because that shit is 100% going down in the short term

 
Jan 5, 2021 - 11:20am

As someone who has quadrupled my net worth from crypto (since 2017), sell now. This shit is about to die. 30k will not hold, and the institutions have been lining up their shorts for weeks.

 

Sell now.

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Feb 8, 2021 - 1:08am

so how much did u put in and how much is it at now?

i put in like 30k last year and it's 80k now. net worth is like 130k so it's over half of mine as well haha

 
Feb 1, 2021 - 12:44pm

That is very interesting. I am also investing in cryptocurrency. Almost whenever I have some money that I don't need at the moment I try to invest in cryptocurrency. This is a very good market. The main problem in investing in cryptocurrency is that it is hard to analyze them. There are a lot of e-money like bitcoin but they are not so expensive and maybe never will be. Whenever I decide to invest in a cryptocurrency I also try to consult bitcoin signals because they are also professionals and I want to have even a person that agrees with my choice.

 
Feb 7, 2021 - 9:50am

I don't know what you think. But I believe that now is the best time to invest in bitcoin. I did this recently with a friend of mine. Well, there was one problem, you had to find a service where you could store bitcoin, and the most important thing is that everything was safe there and you could withdraw money at any time. And my friend showed this site bitcoin tumbler . He said that he has been engaged in cryptocurrency for a long time, and believes that the future of the economy is behind this. I didn't believe it at first, but then I decided to transfer money to bitcoin and now I see how it is growing, and I am incredibly happy about it ! :)

 
Feb 8, 2021 - 5:00pm

Tesla Buys $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin

 

Cryptocurrency's price soars after electric-vehicle maker says it soon expects to accept customer payments in bitcoin

 

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/tesla-buys-1-5-billion-in-bitcoin-1161…

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

 
Feb 8, 2021 - 5:26pm

I wish I had the courage of my convictions. I've got a decent BTC position because I think long-term the price will be well into the 6 figures, but I hugely diversify, so this big jump the last few months has made almost no difference to my portfolio. :(

Array

 
  • Intern in VC
Feb 8, 2021 - 7:01pm

I'm a prospect so obviously take what I say with a heavy pinch of salt, but diversification will not build wealth for you.

Concentration builds wealth, diversification preserves it.

Applying this to my portfolio has led to a high conviction and concentrated approach producing superior returns over the past two years.

 
Feb 9, 2021 - 11:50pm

-

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

 
  • Business School in IB - Ind
Feb 21, 2021 - 10:31pm

The race to be apart of the 21 million is on. Only 4 million are actively traded. Roughly 2 million still to be mined and another 4 million are lost. The other 11 million have not moved in at least 12 months.

Don't forget the steps! Murad Mahmudov lays them out on his twitter and on the famous podcast episode with Anthony Pompliano. 

1. Collectible

2. Store of Value

3. Medium of Exchange

4. Unit of Account

5. Money

We are going from #1 to #2 right now, still early. Bitcoin is basically done competing with other cryptos, next up is gold and after that it's weak sovereign currencies. Gold's market cap is 12T USD, this puts BTC's price at 600k USD. Timeframe for BTC getting there is quicker than I thought. Was initially thinking 2030ish but it looks like it is going to be quicker. 

A couple tips for this bull run:

- Do not sell your BTC. This is a wealth transfer event. Don't lose your seat.

- Before BTC actually passes gold, governments will know they are up next. Take a look at where you store your BTC. Governments will try to ban/heavily regulate BTC on and off ramps.

- Finally!, do not be distracted from Bitcoin's ultimate value proposition. A new form of money. Anything else is noise, altcoins, blockchain, mining, volatility, transactions, volume, etc.  

Sit tight and enjoy the ride. 

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Feb 22, 2021 - 10:46am

hahaha this guy is so triggered that he's late to bitcoin. gold is literally a dumb rock, bitcoin will be worth much more than it. have fun staying poor

 
Feb 22, 2021 - 12:01pm

If governments move to ban BTC, won't that seriously undermine your $600k price target?

Array

 
Feb 22, 2021 - 3:56pm

Have some bitcoin, but more for shits and giggles. Blockchain technology makes sense, but I don't see why a currency would be its best usage.

1. How safe/secure is it in the physical world? If its ultimately tracked somewhere "online" or "on the cloud", can't it be hacked and/or removed from someone's "ownership"? 

2. If widespread adoption approaches, what's to stop a central bank from (i) outlawing it, or (ii) creating its own "coin" that can act as legal tender?

3. Do you really think that this "wealth transfer event" will happen without large & powerful groups/people trying to stop it? ie. lobbying. You even mention that "governments will try to ban/heavily regulate BTC...". What would an average person do if this were to happen?

4. There have been many instances of items going from step 1 to 2 (beanie babies). Why do you think bitcoin will manage to move from #2 to #3, and onwards?

5. Why do you think BTC would completely replace the market cap for gold?

6. Your last point on Bitcoin's value proposition being a new form of money. Why couldn't you make the same argument for any finite resource (eg. pearls)?

7. "Race for 21 million". I was under the impression that there are 21M bitcoin, where the smallest "unit" is a satoshi, which is 1 millionth...implying 2,100 trillion satoshis?

8. Given supply is fixed, how would bitcoin manage/address/effect inflation?

9. Given supply is fixed, how would bitcoin manage/address/effect liquidity?

 
  • Business School in IB - Ind
Feb 22, 2021 - 4:28pm
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