Getting to a Share Price (for HF cases)
I’m in the position where I’m getting into some processes and need to get ready for cases. Might be an elementary question, but confused on one point - let’s suppose you get the case, build the bare bones income statement + a few needed balance sheet & CFS statements, and can get an EPS. How do you get to an actual share price target? Especially given limited time (think a 4 hr live case for MM)
Assuming you don’t get a comps table or don’t have tools for a full blown DCF (no beta for cost of equity, no credit rating info, etc.).
multiply by the multiple to get EV and then excl net debt / DSO
What if they don’t provide a multiple / peer multiple (EV/EBITDA)?
Is there some way to use the current P/E (assuming they give you current price)
You’ll have to use your gut / prior industry knowledge. If you know what the S&P is trading at, if it is a consumer staples or software company obviously knowing what type of valuation to use, and have some credible argument behind your assumption, you will be fine. No one ever got the job b/c they pitched the exact multiple the reviewer wanted to see, it is always more about your process and how you apply it to limited information.
No BBG API in the Excel file?
Maybe can try the current P/E multiple unchanged and your forward EPS. Or 1x PEG ratio on your EPS CAGR to get some indicative P/E multiple check.
You need experience to really understand where stocks trade just by looking at growth, volatility, margins, capital intensity, roic, perceived riskiness, etc
There are lots of multiple decompositions stuff out there you can use too.
You can probably tell what kind of a business it is just by looking at its financials
Just do target EPS x target P/E multiple.
If it's a long, have some differentiated thesis on the future state of that company at target year (2028, 2029, 2030 or whatever), flow it down to EPS. make and argument for why that deserves xyz multiple. Maybe it's like comps that do 20% margin trade at 20x. this company gonna go from 15 to 20% margin by 2030, EPS will be $5, so stock price shouldb be worth $100. Maybe stock is at $40 today so that 2.5x MoM and 26% IRR in 4 years. inverse it for shorts.
isnt market forward looking so if you multiply 2030 eps by target multiple which reflects ntm from that point, would you end up getting your target as of end of 2026? this concept is a bit comfusing to me.
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