Why do we consider C/M top pods (as opposed to just C)?

I’ve never worked at a pod, so maybe this isn’t correct, but in my experience, the guys at C tend to be way smarter/on top of their coverage than M. Why do we always bucket “C/M” as top pods? To me, it should just be C, as I’ve been pretty unimpressed with M…

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Based on my experience (current MMHF analyst at one of the big 4, used to work for another, and ex-LO who spoke to MMHF guys on the job), i’d rank them in order of coverage knowledge and general acumen as investors as:

C (especially impressed by surveyor) > M/P >>>>>>> BAM > everyone else

no one considers c and m their own tier except for this forum. The delta in returns bw the two is pretty wide, and P including SAC era (even after haircutting a bit of that performance to insider trading) trumps M in that regard anyway. so many people move between first 3 (and all 4 to be honest) that the discussion is kind of dumb. Again, these are businesses with businesses inside them, so as people move, some firms under invest etc., things can change very quickly.

 

I feel like it’s not just surveyor, though I agree have been more impressed with those guys than probably any other fund (maybe a few exceptions). The guys in Global Eq. And Ashler are also a lot better than the typical tiger cub / LO / pod-shop guy at M/P/BAM. I haven’t noticed a massive delta between the 3 of them, but all 3 seem to be way ahead of the others.

HOWEVER, I will say (at least for TMT), Ashler lost a very strong pair to MLP, so let’s see if that changes anything.

 

Interesting, always felt philip and how he ran surveyor was a cut above the rest but know a lot of money was poured into bringing GE on par during the last half decade. I doubt the needle moves too much given BAM is also going on their every 5 year 50m+ guarantees hiring spree and these things are super common. But yes MLP now has probably two of the best tmt pod guys in the industry in my opinion, and i don’t think thats super controversial

 

I get where you’re coming from. A lot of people think C is a step above M when it comes to the talent and depth of coverage. They’re usually grouped together because they’re both big players in the pod world with similar setups, but it’s fair to say that C often gets more respect for its people and performance.

 

+1, size/scale is the biggest reason the two are grouped often. Regulatory aum of c/m is massive and so are a lot of their book sizes

 

+1, size/scale is the biggest reason the two are grouped often. Regulatory aum of c/m is massive and so are a lot of their book sizes

 

+1, size/scale is the biggest reason the two are grouped often. Regulatory aum of c/m is massive and so are a lot of their book sizes

 

+1, size/scale is the biggest reason the two are grouped often. Regulatory aum of c/m is massive and so are a lot of their book sizes

 
Funniest

Can you repeat that once more? Sorry didnt catch u the first time

 

In my experience, MLP & C & P72 & Baly employees are the same.

Not the same quality, but actually the same people. Most 10+ yr ppl I know who are currently at one of these have also worked for one or usually two of the others. The order differs.

As an investment product, that GFC drawdown was a large black mark for Citadel & Millennium in GFC was, for LPs, in terms of delivering the actual promise of uncorrelated low vol alpha. Also the mix of asset classes is quite different across the group.

Citadel seems more structured / centralized with more mothership involvement in investment processes and junior talent recruitment - which likely leads to more variability at M and a longer tail of small-book / high churn PMs

In my coverage area - I think I most admire certain peers at neither of these 2.

 

I'd keep in mind that M seeds some of the best PMs and allows them to spin out on their own. Take Kodai for example, former C PM who used to print huge PnL for them and went to M to get the freedom to raise his own capital and get better economics (and all cash bonuses instead of big chunks deferred).

So now Kodai isn't technically part of Millennium, but if it was they'd be on par easily with the best citadel TMT pods, if not better. Not saying M is better or worse than C, but you get much more freedom at M and all cash. Part of the reason a PM would choose M over C.

 

not sure I follow either lol. Only tax benefit I can see is cap gains. If you’re invested in your fund, believe you pay income tax on the deferred when you cash it out. If you took that same notional as cash upfront bonus instead of deferred over let’s say 3 years and invested elsewhere for the same time period with similar returns, should be the same $ gain. Except you’ll pay cap gains on that vs if you left it as deferred and just billed it as income.

 

Jumping in here... some people calling out Citadel's equities as in a league of its own (maybe rightly or wrongly, but isn't the first time I've read this here). ALSO, I seem to remember hearing that Citadel imposes their process more rigidly across all equity teams. 

SO, the question, as always: WHY is their process so much better than others?

- Do they just get much better talent than the rest given who they are?

- Can anyone with any knowledge here give a little more detail at all? Not looking for the secret formulas obviously, but I struggle to understand why running a process, which seems fairly commoditized when you look at the steps, seems to be better at one shop than another?

Like P72 has invested a ton into training people up from an early start... you have to imagine that they have access to a lot of experienced PMs who know how run good teams on the fundamental side, and who also know how to incorporate as much data into the modeling process as possible. This isn't the end all be all of investment returns obviously, but I can't seem to understand how potential infrastructure differences / talent differences can exist so sharply. Why is it that surveyor/etc. analysts often get called exceptional while P72, investing tons into developing talent, isn't get that call out. Obviously not an impt. distinction I know, but the above question holds. 

I'm totally guessing here, but even after adjustments (% from commodities, quants, etc.), it looks like Citadel equities massively outperforms P72 equities 

EDIT - I'm getting MS for this without much answers. OBVIOUSLY I am not saying the above is 100p true, I am asking why have I seen/heard this multiple times? For those who do argue it, can they point to anything? Also from what little performance data I see + when it breaks out Citadel equities (vs. Wellington, etc.), and P72, Citadel is typically 3%-5% ahead. Maybe that P72 headline number is more weighted to non-equities than I thought? 

 
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There's no secret formula. Just different approach to the process. Different processes fits different people. 

At MLP the firm will underwrite a PM's process to deliver alpha and they try to hone you with their internal capabilities - like the best positioning data sourced from the most numbers of prime books, risk tools etc. But end of the day you're left to your own devices to do what you do. But if you're good, they'll push you to scale GMV. You'll see more variety of pods at MLP then C. I.e. some running sub 1bn books with 2-3 analysts with niche coverage / strategies. Others with multi-bn books, half a dozen sub-pms, which basically means you're running your own business inside MLP.

At C you're wedded to a very rigorous process-driven template of how you do things. PM's have certain sector coverage criterias and limited ability to flex GMV (relative to MLP).  At analyst level, C emphasises granularity in modelling and information processing across fewer names. Your accuracy is tracked, your models need to be updated quickly as your numbers are uploaded to a cloud platform every night and aggregated firmwide for firm use (how it's used exactly I don't know). But what I do know is that some adjacent strategies leverages this data to compare street vs C/buyside figures. You'll have a detailed framework for pre and post earnings reviews. Let's say you're on vacation and name in your ticker list reports -> that sounds like a you problem! Your coverage = your responsibility. This means two things. One, people with limited experience (e.g. 2 yrs IBD -> HF) get taught a trialled-and-tested process of the craft and learn not just to take responsibility, but how, with emphasis on formling relative views on incremental information. This is labor intensive and there are no shortcuts. It gets dull, mechanical and repetitive very quickly, but you need to deliver in accordance to the process. Two; from an outsider's perspective you sometimes you wish you could put yourself in to a medically induced coma when you're in a CFO meeting and you're unlucky enough to be accompanied by 7 Citadel juniors across Ashler, Surveyor, GE asking retarded questions like "on a 2 yr stack your incremental EBIT is down 25 bps sequentially" or how much $M of the revolver has been drawn and how does that impact your interest expense and cash taxes (rarely, if ever does this even matter for a stock). I get why they ask it, even if it's stupid and a total waste a every other investor and the CFO's time.

I find that this process focuses on developing solid junior equities analysts', but can fail in the real incremental nuances in expectations investing that makes a good PM. But that can be said for most institutional places with rigorous processes.

Side note: Gotta give credit where credit is due. P72's academy has done a great job at scaling useful insights for junior development! For all the headwinds they had a decade ago, they've pulled off a great comeback.

So... What does this all mean? MLP will give you flexibility and the most generous pay outs. This is great if you're a tried-and-tested investor. At C they'll take your n00b-y WSO spamming butt and tell you what to do and your job is to deliver on that. Arguably (and this is my personal opinion) sometimes on the expense of critical thinking. Needless to say, C has some of the best talent development in the hedge fund space. But equally, some teams have horrendous culture and you're viewed as a temporary information processing resource as the bar to running risk is very high, and you're expected to find a new home. This is true for all coveted positions in high finance, not just C and MLP.

So does any of the hallmarks of MLP or C drive a sustainable edge? Hell no... End of the day it comes down to the PM's ability to deploy capital, develop talent, risk manage and read the market. But it does set a bar for what's expected by the bare minimum, and helps mitigate process decay. Does these two firms manage to attract the best people ? On average yes, if you can deliver under a rule-based, factor constrained model... if you double click on that --> the C spread to MLP has arguably narrowed so much that MLP has now surpassed C assuming you're solving for maximum payout. So you'll see more C -> MLP moves then the other way around in the last 2-3 years.

I don't perceive MLP as trying to hire C trained PMs to run things like C. They buy the track and the process which they can capitalise on (GMV x Platform Leverage - Cost of hiring and Scaling) in a more flexible manner. The angle is usually that it allows the PM to flex dollar vol and sharpe that is better suited to their process without the C overlay. You'll also hear C -> MLP type moves to be motivated by freedom to "build a business" under the platform umbrella franchise (way more encouraged at MLP then C). For non-PMs, it's not as much of a "junior analyst bootcamp" as it would be at C. MLP analysts will (again, on average) have a more varied experience then the streamlined way C develops their juniors. At MLP, it will be heavily PM-dependent relative to C. At MLP, if you're a non-risk taker, you're hired to "enable" the PM's to make money, which, for better or for worse, is all that matters end of the day.

Off topic: Having read posts in this forum sporadically over the past decade an interesting observation is that the tiger cub obsession has now been replaced by a pod obsession - judging by the frequency of topics on this and type of questions asked. WSO posts are similar to a ST MoMo factor of what's currently "in vogue". It provides validity to the assertions around the "peak pod" narrative. I do wonder what strategies people will be buzzing about in 2034. If I was to bet, it wouldn't be that it'll still be the pod shops.
 

/My 2 c

 

those types of questions in mgmt meetings never get. asked/are just a joke I feel. I've been doing this for 10 years and can't recall the last time I heard a C guy ask ""on a 2 yr stack your incremental EBIT is down 25 bps sequentially" or how much $M of the revolver has been drawn and how does that impact your interest expense and cash taxes"

 

It's not about smarts or impressing people like you or idiots (LPs) like me. It's about who makes money and survives. Nothing else matters. At all.

Everyone has to get that in their heads. These people are not visionaries, rather, a lot of them are kind of like robots (and I don't say this to be mean).

ETA: there is also a lot of luck and circumstance that goes into making money and surviving. Izzy could wake up one day and hate your strategy. That means that your risk and that of others with your strategy (other pods) get cut, at best. Or it means that 8/10 pods of that strategy get let go, literally even if you are doing ok PNL-wise. I've talked to a few different people who are ex-MLP who mentioned this, for example.

I used to do Asia-Pacific PE (kind of like FoF). Now I do something else but happy to try and answer questions on that stuff.
 

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