Are you worried about layoffs?
How worried are you about layoffs? I’m at a Blair/Baird and starting to get very nervous. While no layoffs have been announced, the firm continues to talk about cutting expenses. How do you stay positive and focused in this environment?
I mean at the end of the day, there's not a lot we can do. I would just stay prepared for something to happen, try to do a good job and not get into any trouble, and hope you make it through to the other side of this
I guess you didn't like the messages received during yesterday's call? We are all nervous at the moment, unfortunately, it's been clear we have been overhiring for 8 months, classic case of Mgmt. realizing it 8 months too late. My best guess is that there will be layoffs in Summer, unless the market bounces back until then
Not at all. Are you seeing much turnover in your office? Assumed a lot of people would be headed for the door after our recent bonus numbers. Can’t imagine bonuses will be good next year based on headcount alone.
Did you make it out alive brother?
Bump
Used to be at one of those two banks and was chatting with my class recently, seems like a bad situation (probably true of both firms).
Fees way down, pipeline bad, headcount way up. Sounds like the goal is no layoffs (at the expense of the bonus pool) but eventually if markets don’t come back it’ll have to happen.
Like others have said, no point worrying - all you can do is make sure you’re not in the bottom 10-20% that would be vulnerable. Even if there’s massive layoffs, good people will be perfectly fine.
Would you look elsewhere if the lateral market opens? I’m worried next years bonus will suck regardless of layoffs.
Next year bonus as in calendar year 2022 bonus being paid next spring?
Worried? No. Has it been on my mind? Yes. Layoffs are one of those situations you literally have 0 control over. Even if you’re a top bucket you can still get canned. What I’ve been doing is “keep on keeping on,” and putting a little more dough toward my cash cushion in the event shit goes sideways I can stay afloat without going panic mode.
Layoffs are coming. Many have happened in tech and even more are going to happen in tech. Finance saw it a little bit, but more is going to happen. We have portcos laying workers off and going under and I know friends who say their old banks have hiring freezes and are anticipating layoffs.
At the end of the day, all you can do is your best. The beauty of a role like IB is it at least gives you a skill set where you will be able to find a role somewhere else and if you are smart you will have been living below your means and saving money so a layoff doesn’t have you in financial distress. Work hard, live below your means and you will be fine. The people who get burned really bad by getting laid off are those who don’t have any savings or marketable experience. Previously, people haven’t needed savings because basically no one got laid off, that’s changing this past year and for the next few years likely.
It isn’t worth obsessing over—try to cut back on spending a little, work hard in your current role, and you should be fine. Also, be aware many people get laid off at some point in their career and many believe it ends up being a positive impact to their lifelong career and happiness. Also, acknowledge that investment banking is a cyclical industry and they are aren’t going to layoff everyone over night. A 20% reduction would be enormous and that still leaves a majority of people still at the firm.
Do you work at one of the mentioned banks?
No he works at PE given he said “we have portcos…”
.
Are your PortCo's experiencing stress due to the increase in interest expense (assuming you have high leverage on these co's), weakening demand and/or deteriorating margins (or a mix off all the above)?
No. Broadly, increased interest isn’t the issue people are seeing, it’s a flight to quality and general economic slowdown driving austerity over growth.
Companies that previously were cash flow positive and profitability focused are generally speaking, doing fine, but many investors and managers haven’t tried to have positive ebitda and instead prioritized growth at all costs. Any company that isn’t profitable is now realizing the last decade+ has been a complete fantasyland in terms of access to money and their business models no longer work when investors can have cash earning 4+%. Put another way, people that thought they would be able to fundraise 1 year from now are realizing they actually might not be able to fundraise. On top of that, if a company does need to fundraise they are realizing the market hates companies that aren’t positive ebitda now. Basically the #1 question VC’s and growth guys are asking now is “how soon will you turn profitable?”
The best way to turn profitable is to cut expenses. This leads to layoffs and leads to a decrease in paying for services. The services company A pays for are company B’s revenue. Then company B needs to cut even more expenses because they have less revenue, rinse repeat.
Now, for investment banks, they are a cyclical business. They do well when people need to fundraise or want to sell their business. No one wants to sell or buy right now since valuations are changing so rapidly and it makes people uncertain. Historically, you might try to sell a company in the middle market and you’d have 5+ buyers at the end of a process trying to win the business. Now, you might have 1. This just kills the revenue of investment banks. I have friends at banks that say deal volume is 1/3 what it was and on top of that, many banks over hired because the market was so crazy that all banks were short staffed (hence the salary increases and crazy bonuses offered).
The world has completed shifted where profitable companies are valued over non profitable growth companies and people are wanting to abandon private equity because they can get safer more liquid returns in public markets. Welcome to the beginning of your first cycle guys.
Also adding because I think it’s important:
a big difference in mentality is likely to occur in the next several years if/when a slowdown does occur. This website is obsessed with ranking and hairsplitting banks as candidates try to compare offers between places like Evercore and Goldman Sachs. Same thing goes for tech where people have offers from Google, Facebook, Snapchat, LinkedIn, apple, etc. This is behavior that only really exists in low rate environments.
In a recession there are less jobs to go around even though the talent pool stays the same. This means there aren’t as many open positions and all of a sudden just having a job in IB at all will be a privilege and something people are very grateful for. Also, it means something from the side of a candidate—the same candidate in a recession likely has less options and as a result rationally takes a “worse” role because it’s a street fight to get any role you can. If you talk to bankers who graduated in 08, they will tell you that many people who wanted to do IB did big 4 for 2 years then lateraled because there just weren’t positions open.
Again, this isn’t something to freak about, but recognize that the macro economy does impact what roles are available and that sometimes due to the environment you are in, you take a more winding path.
At our portfolio companies, our churn is substantially lower now and feedback is that people are happy we are tight around managing to specific net targets/EBITDA. No more absurd "pay me 3x what I make or I quit" type asks. IMO this cycle is needed badly...
Any idea when you think the recession will end? Doing my first SA next year and I dont want to pick the wrong group that will just end up getting laid off
No one has any idea and anyone that claims they do is lying.
You might have heard people say things like “higher for longer” or “labor is tight”. It’s very very hard to control the economy and the federal reserve’s tools to enact change are very blunt and clumsy with substantial lag time. Further, sentiment is a huge part of the economy—when people are fearful they spend less on a personal level and on a corporate level, and that creates recessions.
As a guideline, you could look at 2008 which was an 18 month long recession. I think many people seem to think this next recession will be less severe, but more stretched out than historical recessions, so it could be 2 years or longer. It also could be like COVID where it’s a few months of drastic change then things correct.
It makes sense to take a little less risk with your career given the economic climate, but don’t obsess over things you can’t control. Some advice:
Dicta optio nulla quisquam voluptas laboriosam in odio. Dolor deserunt aut dolorem aut rerum recusandae. Suscipit et dolores voluptatum est nihil.
Magni expedita ipsam ut mollitia illum alias. Rem adipisci ab qui nemo illum atque. Eveniet minima nam aut provident.
Nihil facere provident vero sit tempora corporis. Laborum impedit laudantium ex et rerum est iste. Quia expedita voluptas sed incidunt magnam. Sed possimus aut dicta consequatur hic molestias reprehenderit. Amet officia quaerat voluptatem sed ipsum ea. Adipisci tempora quo temporibus occaecati ut. Quia id laboriosam consequatur dignissimos qui possimus.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Qui eum et sed enim dolorem. Debitis et similique sit nihil voluptas.
Inventore est reprehenderit recusandae ea. Quo voluptatem consequatur qui fugit unde repellat dolorem. Iure beatae dolorum quibusdam dolores ducimus. Alias molestiae reprehenderit in impedit et perferendis magni. Nisi aut rerum ut et.