First Year Analyst at CS, screwed in event of crisis?

Hi guys,

I'm hoping to get some color from industry guys who were around during the '08 debacle. Let's say you're a first year at CS and noticing that senior management is starting to go quiet and the mood is a bit... different. Reading stuff online it doesn't seem too good right now for CS and it's honestly a bit scary. Should this hypothetical analyst start reaching out to other firms for a potential lateral? Let's say not much deal experience yet.

Would other firms be understanding of the situation if you're let go during this time period? Would there be any sympathy for this analyst during a bank failure?

 

Don't f**king wait for the ship to sink and alarms to go off. Recruit/lateral now before everyone runs for the exit. 

That's just stupid.... If they spinoff into a CVP like entity you'd be kicking yourself after for going to a shitty bank

 

They’re not going to be getting even close to the level of advisory as they are doing now without the Lev fin portion solidly in place. What is going to differentiate them from EVR/MOE/LAZ and especially CVP which is essentially an extension of corp dev teams are the world’s best companies, they are a trusted advisor

 

You guys are talking about a hypothetical spin off being the reason he shouldn’t recruit but that is ridiculous and wrong on so many levels.

In 2008 (not that this would be on that level) a lot of first years got laid off and there was no spin-off to suddenly save everyone’s job. You will lose your job if your firm tanks most likely.

Recruit and you might actually land at a BETTER bank, btw. That’s what I did in my 3rd year. You will be alright and you have time, but start talking to other banks right now. If you get an offer from some bank that’s way below CS in terms of prestige, that’s a more complicated question, but that hasn’t happened yet.

Recruit, and see what you get. Just thought I should chime in as I see some bad advice being given. Best of luck, you’ll be fine.

 

Yeah try to lateral right now, you don't lose anything by reaching out and starting the process early. I bet firms will understand your situation without you explaining too much so it might even help your lateral process out a bit.

Awesome username btw lmao

 

Seriously man, lateral now. You think anyone on WSO has any idea of what's going on? Not even your MDs or Group Heads know what's gonna happen to the bank. Your last CEO got fired (or left for personal reasons according to press release) only a week after he and his chairman said the CEO is not going anywhere. Start sending out those resumes now if you haven't already. You're already late. 

 

Do you know people at CS that have accepted offers but are recruiting at other banks given the recent events?

 

no brah, when the bank goes under you will be just fine!

seriously though, looking for something else just in case.  

 

Received offer to join CS next year. Should I rescind and go elsewhere?

 

Depends on what the elsewhere is. I would take a bank like Jefferies though for sure given CS circumstances. Jeff might not be better than CS in general, but given this situation, I'd take it over them. If it's some no name boutique, I wouldn't renege. Most likely the US operations of CS IB advisory will be spun off into a boutique or something. CS will probably reduce its presence in the US, but I don't think the whole US operations will go bankrupt. Definitely concerning though

 

Hypothetically yeah... but your lateraling opportunities 1 month into the job are literally none. I can't think of any roles that will take someone with 1 month of experience seriously unless you're willing to go to bumfuck nowhere at some 10 man LMM boutique. If this is still an issue 6-8 months down the road, you can safely lateral.

I really doubt CS will just go under. Their IB franchise may be purchased/spun out or the Swiss government will bail them out. You should read about the bail-in policies if a SIFI fails (interesting post-'08 stuff) but governments will make every effort to keep these large banks around. Even if a failure does hypothetically happen, it's not like the analysts are at fault. Other firms would understand if you got fired because the bank literally crumbled lol

 

Is there a significance of October 27? I don’t work at CS, just curious

 

Just FT recruit for any respectable bank left and try to get an offer. If you get it, then renege on CS. I know Jeff is hiring for Jan starts if you can graduate a semester early and July starts for a few coverage groups. If not, just stay put. Most likely you will still have a job at CS, but it might not be under the CS name anymore.  Would guess a spinoff

 

Why are any good MDs left at CS? Would imagine anyone capable of bringing business will have an offer from either other BBs or at least aspirational MMs, and stock options will be basically worthless so nothing keeping them around. Just seems like for an MD you’re way better off taking a competing offer vs waiting around for someone to either tell you you’re being spun out or fired

 

Why are any good MDs left at CS? Would imagine anyone capable of bringing business will have an offer from either other BBs or at least aspirational MMs, and stock options will be basically worthless so nothing keeping them around. Just seems like for an MD you're way better off taking a competing offer vs waiting around for someone to either tell you you're being spun out or fired

Top MDs were put on cash retention program / guarantees. To your point - any half decent MD was looking to leave because the equity dented their total comp 

 

Most kids I knew at CS who were concerned about the bank's fate has already lateraled

 

For what it’s worth, heard internal chatters (from senior management) as of last midweek that huge cuts is on the table and will take effect soon for their IB. Not sure what might happen going forward but it seems that the company still plans to function

 

Ignore my title, been in the industry for a while. Run, don’t walk. This has all of the makings of a collapse. To what magnitude? Who knows exactly but it won’t be good. CS people are interviewing all over the street. From personal experience, even if you end up staying, working somewhere that is in a perpetual turnaround mode blows. You want stability. 

 
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