Got no access to fees but was curious about what the 1st half of the year is looking like and seems that the M&A fee pool is in horrendous shape.
Hoping year-end comp doesn't take that much of a hit.
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Your bonus is that you're not fired.
Literally lol. Firms will blame lower revenue and take advantage of how bad the job market is by lowballing bonuses. At least that is my opinion (hoping I’m wrong).
What’s your bonus if you are fired
I will personally give you a hug.
No homo tho (unless stated otherwise)
The money coming in is down 50% but hopefully no change in bonus lol
Bonuses are going to be non existent. What a difference two years makes... wow.
LevFin is in bad shape as well... my shop is down ~50%+ in fees from 1H'22... and now it feels like M&A has literally grinded to a COMPLETE HALT. Guys, frankly, just be happy that you have a job. Think about the downstream impacts of 0 M&A deal flow = no fees = no/very shitty bonuses/layoffs = Accountants, Lawyers, Consultants, etc. experiencing the same pain.
Should've been a doctor.
Buckle. The. Fuck. Up. It's only going to get worse before it gets better. Equity Markets rallying like it's March 2008 post Bear Stearns collapse.
In honor of pride month, it’s a bear market that identifies as a bull market
Weren't you the same guy who called a lower bottom back in July - October 2022. S&P500 hitting 5,000 by 2024
lol, not in the slightest. I'm of the thought we could easily retest the October lows, but there needs to be a catalyst.
ive been seeing "shits really about to go down" on this forum since late 2020, can you tell us a prediction of a timeline? or a potential catalyst event you are going to watch? otherwise this isnt a super useful claim, since "things will get bad" is a statement thats technically never wrong
That's the whole point. There is an entire subculture on Twitter that revolves around making perpetual claims of impending disaster for years. Then when it's finally time for a pullback and the broken clocks end up being right for the first time in years, decades even, these bufoons never shut up about how they "called it".
Then when we're back in bull market territory the same clowns go back to doom warning but this time they get to put "Predicted [YEAR] Market Crash" in their Twitter bio to seem legit.
Ignore the bearrorists and fintwit bear porn. Healthy corrections are part of the game, but the lows were in October. We could get a 5-10% correction after this run up, or it could be a feeble pull back. We are witnessing what will soon be one of the greatest melt ups of all time. I mean Nasdaq is up 40% YTD for damn sake and we haven't even officially closed the 2nd quarter. Go look at august 1982. Spx reversed a 27% decline of a 22 month bear market in 4 months. Massive melt up first into a crash later. Crash isn't anywhere near yet. All the shorts need to go bankrupt and everyone needs to be max long before we crash.
Right now mutual funds and hedge funds are panic buying the market as they were extremely underweight equities going into this year with decades low positioning. They're now chasing this rally after sitting on the sidelines with cash. Combine that with massive short positioning that has been getting squeezed out slowly but surely, there's still more juice to go. Think of it like the 1999 before the 2000 crash. Don't get greedy, but don't sit out the melt up and let these doomers convince you that we are crashing next week or month.
Anybody know about RX activity? All I can find is predictions from the beginning of the year and nothing since
Getting hotter both in USA and Europe.
Been hearing that for the last 12 months.
maybe you will get a token as a bonus. elite firms like ft partners do that.
140k base btw
YOU'RE NOT FUNNY OR COOL BRAH
I’m in secondaries at an EB and business is booming lol
What kind of secondaries? LPs trying to unload a portion of their interest in a PE fund?
Well of course they are lmao. Do you know what drives higher secondaries activity in this type of market? Just look up the denominator effect in PE.
Basically LP’s portfolios are getting too heavily weighted in PE when public equity markets are going down, while PE marks are held steady (due to PE funds not wanting to mark down their investments). So they need to rebalance using the secondaries market hence using your firm.
Guessing that 2021 is going to be a peak bonus / peak comp year for a long, long time.
100%. Similar how it took until 2021 to get pre-2008 type of comp (inflation adj)
Anyone know why Canada is up so much? Lots of activity or just a few outliers boosting the fee pool?
It’s mostly LMM acquisitions that are up. No marquee transactions, think manufacturing, transportation and logistics etc.
Some big transactions in tech, energy and mining this year. Decent flow in MM / LMM tech and industrials in Q1ish but tapered off now.
Outliers, Glencore Teck deal is massive
M&A is paradise
I looked at the numbers more carefully - strangely, the volume drop off is highly skewed towards the bulge brackets. For US M&A only:
Goldman is down like 60%
JPMorgan down 40%
BAML down 35%
MS down more than 60%
vs
CVP up 25%
Gugg up over 400%
Lazard only down 10%
RBC up by a few %
Specialty Advisory Boutiques are the future.
paradise*
any stats you could share on EVR, MOE, and PWP? Thanks
EVR and MOE are public. You can figure it out through their filings
or is it that Gugg, RBC, LAZ were not able to capitalize on the crazy 2020-2021 market?
Potentially! But that still means that they must be feeling pretty good about YoY performance relative to budget etc
No Lazard certainly did, they’re seeing a mild slowdown purely due to macro factors (similar story to other EBs)
Where will Pro Forma UBS be in the league tables?
Curious as well!
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