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Once every 5-10 years, there is a crisis coming. A bubble that is bursting, or some disaster (war, covid etc) that panics markets.
There is a crisis coming right now, a very nice combination of rising interest rates, overvalued companies, and post-pandemic hangover.
There are two ways to play this:
1) short a broad basket of tech stocks and financial services companies. They'll get hit the most valuation-wise. Tech stock wise avoid the ones that have corrected too much already (Netflix, Zoom, Peloton) but if you really want to pick a bit choose the ones with lower margins or lower retentions (you can check Meritech public comps) or with the highest trading multiples. Again, take a basket (15+), don't play the stock picker - you do not know better. I would avoid security stocks because the momentum in cyber is really good and it's typically more mission-critical so I guess they will suffer less. But everything else is fair game.
Now, shorting is really risky, because you have unlimited loss potential (!). so you need to make sure you have stop losses in place. And can't stress enough that you need a basket of stocks, equal exposure to all, no favorites.
2) the second way is to wait and pounce. There are many stocks that drop dramatically (and that are dropping hugely right now) in crisis, but that really shouldn't. A good example was Visa/Mastercard during the financial crisis or even some medical stocks that dropped for no reason whatsoever (i.e. good performance, low debt), Hint: check beer companies - why are some still half price vs pre-covid share price levels?
Keep your cash handy, and start to earmark stocks that will become cheap. If McDonalds drops 15%, that's a buy, people will still eat that stuff, probably even more in tough times. Wait for the classic bluechips stocks to fall to pre corona or even slightly below corona level to accumulate positions in them (some already are at those levels) As a good practice, I would actually put orders to buy those stocks at those kinds of levels right now, so you don't miss out on them if there is a huge sudden correction.
For 1) and 2) be patient. Don't try to do day trading. Stick to your loss stops.
For strategy 1) I would put orders to get out of the position once you have doubled or tripled your money, don't get greedy because it's hard to time the markets. For strategy 2) Just hold my friends. 2 years, 3 years, 5 years. You'll thank me later once you will have done 5x or more on those positions.
If you guys want to share thoughts on what stocks are good buys right now, let's do it.
Thanks for your unsolicited view, highly leveraged, many thx
np, thanks for your unsolicited thanks, regards and best,
I've not been shorting anything, find that play unnecessarily risky, but have simply been buying 1k every few days of my favorite funds and will keep doing that until the bottom falls out. I did the same exact thing during 2008 - 2010 and it worked great.
For my investment account, I use vanguard total market.
For my 401ks, I used vanguard extended market.
For my Roth ira, I used vanguard reit, reit ex-US, and a sector focused fund.
shorting is super risky only if you don't stop loss
In your first strategy you say don’t play the stock picker, and in your second all you’re saying is play stock picker. I’m not disagreeing with your general comments, but half of your strategy is “buy low, sell high”.
Generating alpha is hard, and using cookie cutter strategies from Security Analysis like it’s the 1980s and markets are marginally more efficient from the OG time of Buttonwood is easier said than done
yes I didn't make it super clear.
I'm talking about baskets of stocks. Don't think you can stock pick on 1 stock without inside info. But you can pick across a basket of stocks if you have a view on fundamentals.
Stocks are an unfair game when you look at hedge funds that have both inside info (grey area stuff) + super advanced analytical capabilities. But in times of crisis markets have always overreacted because instititutions have to rebalance their portfolio, which has always created arbitrage opportunities.
This market is going to melt up before the actual bust. People still don't get this. Now when the bust actually happens, there's a far simpler way to play it. If early enough into the panic buy LT US Treasuries 3x leveraged via TMF. However, could just do cash if you're uncertain. Afterwards once the "dust has settled" would just all in on 3x Leveraged ETF...probably UPRO. As of now for full disclosure, I am still UPRO/TQQQ with 100% of my funds. Now is not the time for fear...that comes later.
just clarifying, are you saying that as of 1/30, you're still 100% UPRO/TQQQ (and so have probably lost these past few weeks)?
Nope I follow a swing trade strategy that had me exit Jan 5th. There was some chopiness so I re-entered on the 11th but then sold again on the 13th allowing me to miss largely all of the downturn. Not going to bother to elaborate because this forum is myopic and will just MS me. If anyone cares enough happy to share via DM but frankly am tired of the disrespect towards those buying TQQQ/UPRO in here. And yes I re-entered Friday all-in for the next leg up.
have we started the fire?
I didn't sell because they expect one of us in the wreckage
1) Free money if you time the market? Cool I'll get on it.
2) I agree with. There are some stocks where earnings growth and general sentiment around the stock is still very strong, but they are getting hammered. Cyber security indices, CrowdStrike, Bright Health Group have been some of my buys. I don't really care if I'm early. I have a ~10 year investment horizon at the absolute earliest and a ~40 year at the longest
are there any specific ETFs for this that you like?
Idk i just googled it and picked one of the bigger onces. First Trust NASDAQ cybersecurity ETF is what I bought. Also bought a cloud computing fund (WCLD)
That's why I "time" with the levered indicies best of both worlds and not a second is spent stressing about a company's filings or projections or whatever...do I underperform the buy and hold during a raging bull market? Absolutely, but I can mitigate by drawdown risk while having a great CAGR
So when did you exit/enter your levered investments during the March 2020 sell off?
What indicators do you look at to swing trade TQQQ/UPRO?
agree cyber is a good long term buy. In my pf I have Crowdstrike, Tennable and Palo Alto. I still think they are a bit overpriced right now, but they are very good if you have 5yr + horizon. Will buy more of each if the market keeps tanking
Could it all be priced in? We have the path of rising interest rates somewhat locked down.
Im gOoD mAn, lEvErEd tO tHe tItS wItH TQQQ.
Anyone with good ‘long-only’ strategies for crypto?
.
Lmk if you end up finding out
Why would you short financial services during a period of rising rates? Just seems like they are way better short opportunities in this environment.
mortgage defaults triggered by interest hikes, end of subsidies for businesses / individuals, general cost inflation for low-income folks. Think people saved over the pandemic so will be a lag but it's a matter of time, especially if companies start to rein in hiring given the market crash that is happening. Maybe compounded by crypto losses for a lot of people.
Sounding like Dr Doom here...
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