free $

Once every 5-10 years, there is a crisis coming. A bubble that is bursting, or some disaster (war, covid etc) that panics markets.

There is a crisis coming right now, a very nice combination of rising interest rates, overvalued companies, and post-pandemic hangover.

There are two ways to play this:

1) short a broad basket of tech stocks and financial services companies. They'll get hit the most valuation-wise. Tech stock wise avoid the ones that have corrected too much already (Netflix, Zoom, Peloton) but if you really want to pick a bit choose the ones with lower margins or lower retentions (you can check Meritech public comps) or with the highest trading multiples. Again, take a basket (15+), don't play the stock picker - you do not know better. I would avoid security stocks because the momentum in cyber is really good and it's typically more mission-critical so I guess they will suffer less. But everything else is fair game.

Now, shorting is really risky, because you have unlimited loss potential (!). so you need to make sure you have stop losses in place. And can't stress enough that you need a basket of stocks, equal exposure to all, no favorites.

2) the second way is to wait and pounce. There are many stocks that drop dramatically (and that are dropping hugely right now) in crisis, but that really shouldn't. A good example was Visa/Mastercard during the financial crisis or even some medical stocks that dropped for no reason whatsoever (i.e. good performance, low debt), Hint: check beer companies - why are some still half price vs pre-covid share price levels?

Keep your cash handy, and start to earmark stocks that will become cheap. If McDonalds drops 15%, that's a buy, people will still eat that stuff, probably even more in tough times. Wait for the classic bluechips stocks to fall to pre corona or even slightly below corona level to accumulate positions in them (some already are at those levels) As a good practice, I would actually put orders to buy those stocks at those kinds of levels right now, so you don't miss out on them if there is a huge sudden correction.

For 1) and 2) be patient. Don't try to do day trading. Stick to your loss stops.

For strategy 1) I would put orders to get out of the position once you have doubled or tripled your money, don't get greedy because it's hard to time the markets. For strategy 2) Just hold my friends. 2 years, 3 years, 5 years. You'll thank me later once you will have done 5x or more on those positions. 


If you guys want to share thoughts on what stocks are good buys right now, let's do it.

 

In your first strategy you say don’t play the stock picker, and in your second all you’re saying is play stock picker. I’m not disagreeing with your general comments, but half of your strategy is “buy low, sell high”.

Generating alpha is hard, and using cookie cutter strategies from Security Analysis like it’s the 1980s and markets are marginally more efficient from the OG time of Buttonwood is easier said than done

 

yes I didn't make it super clear.

I'm talking about baskets of stocks. Don't think you can stock pick on 1 stock without inside info. But you can pick across a basket of stocks if you have a view on fundamentals. 

Stocks are an unfair game when you look at hedge funds that have both inside info (grey area stuff) + super advanced analytical capabilities. But in times of crisis markets have always overreacted because instititutions have to rebalance their portfolio, which has always created arbitrage opportunities.

 

This market is going to melt up before the actual bust. People still don't get this. Now when the bust actually happens, there's a far simpler way to play it. If early enough into the panic buy LT US Treasuries 3x leveraged via TMF. However, could just do cash if you're uncertain. Afterwards once the "dust has settled" would just all in on 3x Leveraged ETF...probably UPRO. As of now for full disclosure, I am still UPRO/TQQQ with 100% of my funds. Now is not the time for fear...that comes later.

 

just clarifying, are you saying that as of 1/30, you're still 100% UPRO/TQQQ (and so have probably lost these past few weeks)?

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.
 

Nope I follow a swing trade strategy that had me exit Jan 5th. There was some chopiness so I re-entered on the 11th but then sold again on the 13th allowing me to miss largely all of the downturn. Not going to bother to elaborate because this forum is myopic and will just MS me. If anyone cares enough happy to share via DM but frankly am tired of the disrespect towards those buying TQQQ/UPRO in here. And yes I re-entered Friday all-in for the next leg up.

 

1) Free money if you time the market? Cool I'll get on it.

2) I agree with. There are some stocks where earnings growth and general sentiment around the stock is still very strong, but they are getting hammered. Cyber security indices, CrowdStrike, Bright Health Group have been some of my buys. I don't really care if I'm early. I have a ~10 year investment horizon at the absolute earliest and a ~40 year at the longest

 

mortgage defaults triggered by interest hikes, end of subsidies for businesses / individuals, general cost inflation for low-income folks. Think people saved over the pandemic so will be a lag but it's a matter of time, especially if companies start to rein in hiring given the market crash that is happening. Maybe compounded by crypto losses for a lot of people.

Sounding like Dr Doom here...

 

Tempora et qui et molestiae quod rerum sed. Eveniet temporibus perferendis dolorem voluptas.

Excepturi modi commodi ullam possimus. Exercitationem dolorem quas non consequatur et consequuntur. Quo laudantium aut voluptates quis.

 

Nisi sint velit voluptas nostrum fugit sint ullam. Aut minima et ad quaerat est doloribus eum. Dolore impedit animi optio non laborum non voluptatem corporis. Quam veritatis officia deserunt doloremque repudiandae. Enim laudantium aliquam necessitatibus illo. Occaecati fugit nemo omnis ipsa.

Consequatur non magnam voluptates rerum culpa. Dolorum ipsam doloremque consequatur et. Non hic est voluptas voluptas quasi. Est consequatur facilis ducimus voluptates libero nihil voluptatum. Temporibus adipisci unde accusantium sed ad eum magni. Autem et labore qui dolore minus est necessitatibus dolorem.

Perferendis perferendis omnis nulla sint nostrum. Nemo beatae et sit beatae ab. Et quia ea saepe omnis. Quas dicta sint repudiandae maiores eos.

Sed tenetur odit id sunt a sit ducimus totam. Assumenda consequatur totam ipsam voluptatum aut eum ut. Voluptas sed molestiae eveniet non. Dicta recusandae sit est et voluptate aut quas. Impedit culpa tempora autem eius.

Career Advancement Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. New 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (205) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (145) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
3
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
4
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
5
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
6
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
7
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
8
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
9
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
10
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”