I'm intrigued by the differences in opinion among so many investors, as there is really no right or wrong way to invest your assets. So it got me thinking:
How do you invest your personal portfolio and what is your strategy?
Are some of you still stock-pickers? Do some of you just make sector bets with ETFs or just buy core index funds? Anyone use more advanced strategies such as options or futures? Hell, anyone here not keen towards the public markets and rather invest in CRE or Private Equity? Strategy-wise, would you consider yourself a growth or value guy or prefer to just asset allocate?
I've got everything, including the bulk of my 401K, in ETFs and/or market mirroring mutual funds. I'll occasionally buy stocks when I've got the time to research and track just to stay sharp, but the market's performance the past few months has admittedly made me lazy. I was looking at my statement the other day and it had some insane figure like 10 or 11% YTD on there.
I prefer to look at mid-cap funds for the slightly higher return profile, but try to adjust the allocations every few months.
Next year I'll be adding a couple of RE investments into the mix.
Passive, all the way around. Lots of Vanguard ETFs. A meaningful chunk in Betterment.
I don't trade on my own because 1) I don't think I can beat the market risk-adjusted (given the time I'm willing to spend), and 2) my firm makes us declare all trades to compliance, and it's a huge pain in the ass.
more than half of my portfolio is in Berkshire stock. Company has a 19% CAGR and shows no signs of stopping. Buffett's inevitable death will be a temporary setback. 20% is in stock invested via the tenets of value investing and the rest is speculative stocks or options.
BRK.A or BRK.B?
I wish A
I'll add that I have my 401k fully allocated to a mid-cap index fund. In my IRA I'm invested in 5 large cap, household names (generally look for competitive advantages in the companies I buy that I believe can weather competition over long periods of time). With my excess savings I basically do 1-2 year high interest rate, 1st lien lending for real estate projects to buyers that usually don't have all the qualities (credit, stable income, etc.) banks are looking for when lending.
Still, I sometimes wonder with the amount of time I have (or lack there of), if I should just index my IRA......
401(k) - Entirely ETFs. Utilize the Morningstar Lifetime Allocation Index to set allocations, so have just about every market cap. range and geography covered. Also own a REIT ETF and a junk bond ETF.
Taxable account - Individual stocks that are a mix of buy-and-hold ideas and short-term trading ideas. Most are small cap. growth and most are tech. or healthcare. Also own some actively managed emerging markets funds, since I think emerging markets will be one of the best performing asset classes over my lifetime and are more inefficient than markets in the U.S. One of the funds I own (EFEAX) is technically a frontier markets fund.
Reasons for my strategy: Keeping the 401(k) on autopilot makes sense, since I want to focus my time and efforts on generating outperformance that I can benefit from earlier in life, not 40+ years from now when I retire. In terms of which investments are held where, I want to keep the income investments in a tax-deferred environment, while the growth-oriented investments can be held on the taxable side, since I won't pay taxes unless I sell. While there are some tax consequences from my short-term trading, it also has created opportunities to harvest tax losses, so my realized gains have been pretty small, while my unrealized gains continue to climb.
US Large Cap: individual names everything else: high active share managers
Allocate in large, mid and small with some international. A bit of fixed income, intermediate bond funds. I am also looking to add some RE funds and maybe silver, probably taking from large cap. Everything is passive and auto rebalances.
What is your process of finding investment ideas? (Originally Posted: 06/26/2017)
Hello,
I am a beginner trying to do my own ER stock analysis but before I begin I was wondering how others stumble upon undervalued or promising investment ideas. From the few books that I have read on investment and from common sense, it is clear to me that investing in stocks that everyone is following is not going to make me any money. Certain big stocks like Apple, Google, or Amazon might double in the next decade (They also require a big capital), but how do you find 5-10+ baggers. I am not talking about the fundemental analysis but just the first step of finding a promising stock. Are there any websites for which I don't have to pay for, that would let me do a filtered search (ex - doing a search with P/E ratio of 10 and under)? Do you follow a list of stock at all time or concentrate on a few? Any additional tips would would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
I've personally made my better finds on top down analysis. Some prefer bottom up and there are plenty of different ways but that has just been my favorite. Try to identify some sort of trend that is going on in the market, then drill deeper into your idea. Try to identify what is a crucial driver of that trend. From there your mind should be full of more ideas and the ball gets rolling. You should have a couple of companies by then. Dig into those, I like to look into supply chain and logistical aspects of a company. I think smaller companies that have an established and efficient logistics network are great finds and something i try to look for the most. You'll find what you personally think makes a company great, but nuts and bolts will always be vital.
search bar bro
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/idea-generation-and-why-wall-str…
there will not be a better thread on this topic than what blackhat wrote above
Thank you for the link. I wasn't getting good results from the search bar so I decided to post. While that thread is full of value ( I bookmarked it) I was asking for a more beginner version of screening for stocks. Most of the tips on that thread were for analysts and people in the industry who already have knowledge and connections. I am trying to get a simple process so I can do some self studying for the sake of writing research notes.
/delete
Check out ValueInvestorsClub (you'll see the ideas on a ~45 day delay) and Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax.
Sites like Finviz allow you to run fairly basic screens.
How to investment to share market? (Originally Posted: 05/24/2017)
How to investment to share market? I am new to share market i am loosing money very day can u help me to which share we will buy and when i have to buy that share and why that share is increasing very and why decreasing? Any one help me?
I would advise to first read into the subject. Losing money can be very demotivating. I would recommend The intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham.
It is advisable to read and understand the basic functioning of the market and its products before investing. Leading broking firms like Karvy have abundant material available on their websites. Once you have enough understanding about the market, you can start reading research reports and see how the recommendations fair in the market. With a few tests, you’d soon gain good confidence to invest and get good returns.
you can buy WPC right now at $60 and get a ~7% annual dividend.
How do you guys invest/save? (Originally Posted: 11/26/2017)
As someone fresh out of school, I'm beginning to think about investing now that I have a few months' earnings saved up. How do you guys invest? Index funds, fixed income, individual equities, savings accounts, 401k, etc.?
Personally, I think the market is overvalued right now, so I'm considering putting 80% or so in fixed income for the moment, then move a majority to individual equities/options/some in an index after a downturn. I'm curious what other people do with their savings/how do they do it.
ShakeyGraves, bummer your thread hasn't had a response yet. Maybe one of these threads could point you in the right direction:
More suggestions...
Hope that helps.
"How do you invest your personal assets?" (Originally Posted: 12/21/2013)
Here are some of the questions Sharon (my secretary) selected this week for me to answer.
It matters much less what percentage of your assets are invested in stocks/bonds/hedge funds/private equity/real estate compared to the types of accounts you put your assets in. There are many methods for people to protect their assets and to pass on their wealth to the next generation. The key is hiring a good Trust and Estate lawyer.Most of you are aware of the estate tax and how burdensome it is. The corollary to the estate tax when you're alive is the gift tax. The government will tax gifts above a certain size the same way they tax your estate to prevent you from gifting all of your assets to your kids while you're on your death bed. They always want a piece of what you've earned. Fortunately, Trust & Estate lawyers have many good ways to help you.
I'll give you one example of many. I can put money into a trust called a GRAT, which allows me to transfer most of the appreciation of an asset to my kids free from gift or estate tax. All you have to do is beat some nominal IRS rate, which is about 2% per year right now. So, let's say I put $10 million in a GRAT for 2 years. If the asset increases by 25% cumulative over 2 years, I'll pass $2 million to my kids tax free. If the asset doesn't appreciate, I just do it over again. I can keep doing this every two years. You can transfer a lot of money tax free using these types of techniques.
Trust me, these techniques add way more value than a portfolio manager ever could.
Know your role. People spend too much time trying to get into the business of their spouse. When my wife said something like, "We should enroll our kids in X, Y, or Z school.". I simply agreed and wrote a check. Why would I be interfering with her on that? When it came to money and work, my wife has always deferred to me, because that's my role in our marriage. It helped that I was always making a lot of money, so there was no question about my position there. If you're a man, you need to strive to make a lot of money, it really smoothes out a lot of the rough edges to marriage and to life in general. It's going to be hard for your wife to argue about all of the hours you're putting in when you're bringing home seven figures per month. It's going to be hard for you to talk about what activities your kids should be in when you only see them on the weekends (at best). So, if you get married, know your role and don't interfere with your spouse's role. It's simple really. No, I do not.That's all for this week. Feel free to ask questions here or via PM for the column next week.
does you have sexual relations with your secretary sharon?
Dick, is it true if you don't use it you lose it?
What assets? I only have debt.
Dick, have you ever considered pitching a bond trading house at one of the startup weekends? I'm sure you'd gather some interest.
I'm closin' in on only 4 years of marriage and his marriage advice is very true.
Dick, how would I seduce a woman into performing fellatio on me? In addition, what does one hand clapping sound like?
Did someone already clarify whether this user is legit? Pretty hilarious no doubt, but can't help but be skeptical.
@"Simple As..." @"Going Concern" @"happypantsmcgee" @yeahright @45c345 @duffmt6 @APAE @technoviking @Voodz @EvanM @"Edmundo Braverman"
Among many others. You're welcome everyone.
Really? Really?
Can someone clarify if this guy is really an associate in PE? WSO is good at these things, no doubt, but can't help but be skeptical.
What is your opinion of James Woods?
GRATs do work for wealthy individuals, considering how low interest rates are; also, it's for assets that rapidly rise in value.
I think the gift and estate tax rate is over 40%. There is an exemption of up to $5.25 million for 2013 (effectively $10.5 million for a couple), but if you bequeath more than that GRATs will save you a ton of money.
And you guys thought UBS was useless.
P.S. @DickFuld might just have invented the art of intellectual trolling.
Holy shit this is on the nose! Everyone take note. Bravo, sir.
Many successful and long married guys have given me this very advice. Along with the remarks that you need to strive to make a lot of money. This sounds shallow but it really eliminates all the 'heated conversations' around money. "Happy wife = happy life."
@DickFuld : I'm extremely disappointed in you for asking that question. No Lehmanite would ever allow himself to be deterred by such a banal thing as an "age limit."
DickFuld quickly becoming a WSO legend. Good stuff.
Solid post Dick!
Most excellent. Keep these coming. I like it.
The only asset anyone has is debt
What is Your Recommendation for Current Investment Allocation? (Originally Posted: 12/09/2016)
While I am aware of the simple investment rules people frequently like to state such as having a 60/40 stock bond split or determining your allocation by age, I am curious what recommendation one would have for the current investing environment. I grew up trading only stocks and only due to both recent research on bonds as well as analysis of current market conditions am beginning to wonder when the right time to incorporate bonds would be.
When it comes to adding bonds and the current investing environment I must admit I am a complete amateur. While I have read that the expected future raising of rates make it a bad time to invest in bonds, I would like to know how much bond prices already price in these future expectations. When trying to go through an online broker such as Scottrade which bond types would be most appealing to add? I prefer trading individual entities myself rather than investing through funds, but what are the overall costs vs benefits of utilizing bond funds?
While everyone is rushing into the equity markets, I am finding that I believe equity valuations to be approaching some pretty uncomfortable levels. While I am not expecting an outright correction soon, I think that we are in a more susceptible environment and would like to increase my overall knowledge levels on how protect my individual portfolio from an unexpected downside movement.
So what is everyone currently adding in this environment? What hedges do you have in place and how much cash do you have available on hand? Any background is fine for adding input. Thanks all!
100% PTLA
NOOOOOOOOO
don't take investment advice from WSO dude.
how old are you? assuming you're under 30, you should be all stocks & cash. never get completely out of the market. that being said, if you think valuations are high but you also don't have more than say 25k accumulated, just keep it all in stocks but diversified and continue adding on a monthly basis.
Well, the good thing about a forum is I am not simply just going to take everything at face value. If someone gives bad advice either intentionally or not, I am not going to blindly change my perspective off what they say. On the other hand, in my current line of work if you bring up investment questions to discuss, the only response you will get is about how well their Prestige Worldwide Mutual Fund is doing.
While I am under 30 my holdings are in the six figures which has changed my overall investing style. I used to have the ride or die mentality for investing, but am looking to taper it back a little. The reason having some bonds seems intriguing rather then just some cash on hand is due to the fact that I could sell out of the bonds and put the money back in stocks in the case of a correction. On the other hand, if I get "stuck" in a bond, at least I can simply wait until the maturity and make a decent percentage gain in the end.
You should be using valuations for your exits too. At what point is any yield left on the table not worth the risk of holding?
The reasons I am so interested in allocating a portion of my portfolio to bonds is primarily due to the fact that a lot of the time environments of high valuations stocks continue to increase and investors who remained overly cautious would miss out on high returns. For instance I find stocks to be at uncomfortable valuation levels currently, but the environment could change based of matters such as a decrease in the value of the dollar improving earnings. Obviously you know far more about these matters than me and this is just an example of my overall mindset, but at what point would high valuations push me out of stocks and into other sources of investing?
My overall idea right now is to have an 80-20 stock to bond split as I think we still have a good amount of upside left in equities. At the same point, is it a good strategy to have 20% in bonds which I could sell and use to buy into stocks in the case of a correction? Is this a good protective strategy for maintaining high yields while at the same point not putting everything on the line? I am really asking because I truly don't know. I have never traded or bought an individual bond in my life and have always in the past been comfortable with having 100% of my portfolio in stocks.
Short the world!
For the more market savvy posters: Is there really any incentive to diversifying by investing in bonds at this moment? I ask because over the past few months I have been hearing more and more about stock/bond correlation.
Here is an article describing what I am referring to: morganstanley.(com)/ideas/portfolio-construction-bonds-stocks-correlation (insert www in front of morganstanley and remove brackets from "com")
Also: twitter.(com)/dailydirtnap/status/792012121949233152 (insert https//: in front of twitter and remove brakets from "com")
**** I had to link the articles this way because I do not have permission to post links yet.
what are you invested in or wanting to invest in (Originally Posted: 12/21/2010)
Hey all...
whats some stocks you are invested in?? wanting to invest in?
I think we should get a rolling topic going with investing ideas on specific stocks or what not?
currently I have shares in SB, BAC, KWK, RIO
and planning on picking up some C in the future
I own JPM, C, ABT, BP, EZPW, TIE, ENP and have 2 jan 2011 DIA 115 calls.
i really like BP waiting for it to possibly dip a little
what is your investment stragey? growth?
Aggressive growth. I try to buy things that make sense to me and seem logical.
I bought BP back when they were $31, they seem to have leveled off over the last few months and I suspect they'll remain this way at least until Q2 '11 so I decided to sell of 80% this morning.
EZPW I bought back when it was $13, they were a strong value play with no debt, huge growth and essentially engaged in legalized loan sharking.
yeah i feel that BP might be kinda stagnant right nw.. espically with the uncertainty aobut all the law suits...
ill have to look into ezpw
you should look into SB, i dont know how it is in terms of aggressive growth, but its got a really good yield... not sure it will go much higher then say 10-12...
C $5 Jan 2012 calls, AA $15 Jan 2012 calls, WH, CYCC
my strategy is all or nothing
Deep Value, using NCAV approach (Ben Graham)
VOXX and HQS
SGI- Baller stock in cloud communication- they are making things happen- expect a lot of growth in the short term
Tend to be risk averse/long term, lately have been looking for yield
MSFT, ORCL, AXP, BOA, FSTR, KO, VZ, DLN/DLO, CELG, TEVA, ABT, ED, CHK, NLY, WPZ.
Like to enhance returns by writing covered calls at levels I'd like to be called away at. Sometimes instead of buying shrs outright I like to sell naked puts at levels I like the stock at.
PKX, CRESY, ICO, PNCL.
All picks are stolen from Mohnish Pabrai's most recent 13-F.
bumppp. anything new?
I bought apple today at 326. How about that?
Duplicate thread: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/what-are-you-invested-in-or-wanti…
what are you invested in or wanting to invest in (Originally Posted: 12/21/2010)
Hey all...
whats some stocks you are invested in?? wanting to invest in?
I think we should get a rolling topic going with investing ideas on specific stocks or what not?
currently I have shares in SB, BAC, KWK, RIO
and planning on picking up some C in the future
None - still dont like the fact that the markets are in 'recovery' mode yet the real economy is nowhere near in good shape.
Am looking to add some more to my silver position, thats about it.
You could sit on the sideline and not make money I guess
really your not concerned that this is the "recovery"'??
Precisely the opposite - im concerned this isnt the recovery.
Hurts less to not be invested on the way up and laugh about it, then be invested and lose money on the way down.
real estate
or just buy the SPY at 82.04 and 104.64 after retracements ;)
vix is low- buy puts?
Jim Rogers ETN's
RJA, RJN, RJZ, RJI
I view these positions as long-term investments.
here what you guys thnk about doing something like this?
SB- 8.55 Marine Shipping company pays a 7% yield.. i think its going to go up or at least holds its value with a nice yield since, whether or not the recovery is here, more and more goods will be shipped in the future
Since you asked:
ALTAIR NANOTECHNOLOGIES INC NEW CENTURYLINK INC CHINA FUND INC CITIGROUP INC FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC FIRST TRUST ISE GLOBAL COPPER INDEX FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC CL A REP CL A LTD LIABILITY CO INT HUMAN GENOME SCIENCES INTEL CORP ISHARES MSCI TURKEY INDEX FUND ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN INDEX FUND ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA INDEX FUND ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA INDEX FUND ISHARES RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE INDEX FUND ISHARES SILVER TRUST ISHARES MSCI INDONESIA INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND KKR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LLC KSW INC MARKET VECTORS INDIA SMALL-CAP INDEX ETF NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP NORTH AMERICAN PALLADIUM LTD POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE TRUST SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF SOUTHWEST AIRLINES COMPANY SPRINT NEXTEL CORP SERIES 1 TARGET CORP THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC
I also have a total market index, but that's boring. You have to watch with marine shipping. Perfectly competitive industry and each carrier has a surprisingly few number of boats (like 40 for a bigger carrier - these are those massive cargo ships) so if they have bad maintenance or take a bad route they're in trouble.
The reason I have rail is because there are few US rail companies and they have established routes and higher frequency transport. Plus Warren Buffets hiring at BNSF. I also picked Norfolk because it's got the east coast to itself for the most part.
You need to be careful in marine shipping for the short term. The Baltic Dry Index has been dropping lately, and it is expected that there will be a surplus of ships next year, which may further weigh on spot prices. Given the uncertainty in the global economy (i.e. debt problems in Europe, slow US recovery, etc.), it can be a risky bet. I'd want to see some positive trending on spot rates and better global GDP growth before putting more money into sector.
Disclosure: I own DRYS and view it as a hold.
Crosstex Energy (XTEX). Small NG company that is responsible for 6% of NG and NGL distribution in the U.S. and growing. Bought them last March at $1.90/share. In the mid $13 range.
Small-caps Energy REITs Uranium Utes Other dividend payers
The market's probably going sideways for another five years. I like stocks that collect economic rents pay dividends, and have exposure to commodities prices.
brooksbrotha, just out of curiousity, what's your story behind the xtex trade, cuz thats sick
I picked 5 energy companies in the U.S. last year that I constantly heard about in this market update for this software my school has. I took a close look at Xtex and what they've been doing over the past 5 years: buying up pipelines and refineries. Granted they now have a small bit of debt on their hands but with a boost in coverage over the NG market (6% of distribution in US), they have a steady stream of revenue. They had several presentations in the past month with BoAML and RBC for investors. Haven't seen that generate any market activity but I'm content where it's sitting at now.
I'm looking at Clearwire (CLWR) although it's pretty volatile and I'm not sure what'll happen with the recent Net Neutrality regulation stuff going on.
DO has really lagged the other deepwater offshore oil drillers during the last few months. Day rates will go higher, especially with oil prices rallying. That will flow straight to the bottom line. Stock should be above $80 by end of next year (25+% increase), especially if oil prices stay near $90/bbl.
brooks- thats awesome..similar story, i bought YZC back when it was 3.5 something and sold it at 29... I also bought YGE a solar company back at 3 dollars... it shot up to around 18 , and i didn't sell... and now i still have it at around 10.. should be selling in the future.
monkeysama- i also like rail alot, just for me it would be hard buying say CSX Union Pacific- since they are quite alot, Ill check out the one you like, rail definitely seems to be the future.
NICE! I had YZC too, but I bought at around $10. Still one of my fave China stocks. They had an unbelievable growth record and an almost unbelievable balance sheet.
Do any of you play options? I tend to stick with stocks for long term and use options to make quicker profits.
....as for me, i would like to be invested in about 8-10 solid stocks- about 6 that are all somewhat diversified, mostly growth and a few dividends
as for the other 4 small to medium cap stocks, aggressive growth and somewhat speculative stocks as well
Anyone read up on the endowment model? I'm reading a book on it as I intern with a boutique firm that uses it. it's basically a strategy of using a mix of "Swing Assets" (U.S. Bonds, U.S. Equities, Cash) and a thing called an Alpha Core (venture cap, commodity funds, real estate, int. equity, etc). Of course you can't effectively use the strategy without several million to pony up (hedge funds require $1-5M to invest) but still an interesting concept overall.
yeah bulge... yeah i really dont even know what made me by it... it was one of my first stocks that i bought when i was starting out and it was china and coal so i thought it must be good.. and had a decent balance sheet etc...
unfortunately i was going to hold on to it but i panicked during the flash 'crash'... looking back though i think i sold it at the right time anyways
as for options... ive been wanting to do it for a very long time now.. but was never approved until NOW lol
theres going to be a option101 thread that another member is starting up... check it out
haha I just recommended that in your thread earlier f1. Is someone actually doing it?
why wont it let me post, its coming up as triggering the spam filter???
Stop saying bad words!
brooksbrotha-yes i think so lol
thanks i worte the S word lol
what we should do guys... is people that are serious, we should all share our skype names and have like a weekly "stock pick" or option conversation where we discuss various stuff. Hopefully we can get some people in the industry to contribute there findings, information, opions etc
I'm thinking a lot about going long the Yuan. Especially EURCNY is becoming more attractive every day.
Lots of reasons that favor a future appreciation which is not already priced in. Also, the risk that China will further devalue their currency and therefore get their economy overheating even more is very small.
This seems to be a trade with a great risk/reward ratio, but it is very hard to estimate the time-frame of a future appreciation, which would make this trade also financially attractive compared to other ideas. If I have 1 idea which is returning 5% every month I am better off after one year than if the yuan appreciates by 50%. And I am not thinking about using a ridiculous amount of leverage.
enzon pharma- currently selling for the PV of their current drug royalties, so you get a drug pipeline including several promising phase II's for free. Catalyst is a significant amount of activist ownership (baupost, icahn) who will make them sell the pipeline if needed.
reading international-cinema/real estate developer that looks fairly valued but has incredibly undervalued land on balance sheet. Catalyst is them selling their biggest undeveloped land in Sydney that should net close to $2 of additional book value ($5 share price)
Market looks rich-sticking to event driven plays
enzon looks preety good ill have to check that out...
what do you guys think of water utility stocks- with the perhaps looming water shortage crisis in the future??
also any agree that rail transport is the way to go in terms of investing? BNSF was mentioned earlier and that looks really promising, what about CSX? or are there any midcap or $20 rail stocks, i would like to buy a good chunk and hold onto it for some time as a long term investment.
What are your guys opinion on BP and DO. I know BP has some massive lawsuits coming in the future but its a stock that is cheaply priced and will certainly rise in the future- after all their uncertainty regarding lawsuits etc pass...
would like to here your opionins
bump
I looked at BP with a friend. At $280 billion revenue run rate, historical margins to $32 mm ebit, you get $21 million nopat. Assuming no growth and capitalizing at WACC of 10% and then less net debt, you get an earnings power of $60 per share. And remember with any future lawsuits-the longer they're pushed off, the lower the present value (exxon valdez paid 19 years after their spill...).
short japanese 10 year bond futures / short us 30 yr bond futures / short eurusd
miners (coal/copper)
junior miners (silver/gold)
oil/gas E&P
aapl/amzn
nflx jan '12 $150 puts
whats everyone feel on natural gas companies??
exploratory oil?
rail road sector?
For natural gas-I used to be in contango oil and gas (best one I've found-was dirt cheap and lowest cost producer it didn't need to hedge any production). I think the industry will be fine long term, but will only buy one if I can get it below its PV of its proven reserves. For a while, contango was insanely cheap and buying back shares. Based on the amount of proven reserves per share of stock, the company was essentially buying its own proven reserves at a fraction of what it would cost to actually replace them-crazy. Sold out into some strength but always watching it it's a phenomenal company.
I like your style iambateman. Do you have stops on those futures?
i dont currently, i probably should trade in and out of the positions more but right now just kinda letting em ride and shorting more on pops.
japanese short bond story has been told a million times. if you are unfamiliar google kyle bass japanese bonds. this is in my opinion just a great assymetric risk/reward trade. yields cant really go that much lower but have potential to go 5%+ if all hell breaks lose in japan.
i think 30 yr goes to 5+%, my biggest position. been in since yields were like 4.2%, have added to this position on pops.
euro is fucked, i think we see 1.2 or lower in 2011. the entire country is fucked and i think germany will end up getting sick of subsizing everyone and may even pull out of the EU.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240529702035132045760482511989653…
[quote=gekkoguy86]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240529702035132045760482511989653…]
Solid read. Thanks for posting
I want to invest in a start up film company
do you have a script or idea that you want to produce or do you just want to invest in someone else who does? A few years ago i looked into trying to produce a short film with an eye towards getting into festivals, etc. It was going to be a project that was not attempting to even break even but rather would just get me a taste of an interesting industry and help me learn about it. Small, Independent production companies are a very tough business if the goal is to make alot of money....or any money for that matter. I actually have a couple of ideas for scripts I would like to develop (jncluding a Wall St-related one) if I had time which i dont given my commitment to my day job.
yeah ive been reading many articles how the market is over bought, but could this be a case of when other are bearish be bullish etc....
interesting note: around 10000 people a day will be turning 65
healthcare stocks poised to boom?
bumbage
MNDO... check it out: manufactures and markets real-time and off-line billing and customer care software
and ASIA: provides telecommunications software solutions and information technology (IT) security products and services in China.
Been waiting for a thread like this for a while.
Biggest position is RICK (Rick's Cabaret) - trading at half of its 52-week high yet expanding and rising revenues YoY. It's also acyclical as people will always be buying booze and lap dances. Unfortunately doesn't have public comps.
anything new?
whats everyones feeling on pruchasing a few calls on Citi group?
hey everyione... right now holding onto XOM july 11 90 calls and BP
seems as inflation rises and unrest grows the shares will soar
what yall think
f1mpladed, I agree that current events should drive the price of oil higher but I think that bet would be best expressed more directly with a call on USO. The logic is that there is bound to be some slippage (basis risk so to speak) when substituting with oil majors, who furthermore are exposed to specific risks you probably aren't being rewarded for (what if a BP plant is shut down by turmoil? Oil goes up, BP goes down).
yeah... XOM exploding right now lol
personal portfolio (Originally Posted: 02/24/2011)
my personal portfolio (all self managed) is up 1350% over the last 2 years, did not invest prior to the crash
is this something i should add to a resume and if so how much would it help
how did you manage to do that...depends. ping me
I would not- even if this was done in a fashion that wasn't 100% pure luck and speculation, anyone reading the resume would laugh and not take it seriously- I would never put returns.
Just put something under interests like value investing/ futures trading/ distressed investing / day trading or whatever you do. If they bring it up in an interview talk about your strategy or a good investment. If they ask your returns then you can say.
How to be a smart investor (Originally Posted: 03/12/2011)
The was just bizarre enough to make me laugh, SB
Wow, the full text. Impressive.
How to Become a Better Investor (Originally Posted: 02/04/2014)
I love to run. I enjoy being outside, and pushing myself both physically and mentally. Running fills both of those needs. I'd like to become a better runner by increasing my endurance, and decreasing my times. The only way for me to achieve these goals is to go out and run. I sometimes read about running, and think about it, but the only way to improve is to actually run.
When taking up a new activity reading isn't the same as doing. You can read all you want about the activity, read others' experiences, but you need to do it yourself. I had a co-worker who was much more passionate about running than myself. He would spend hours reading about the body mechanics of running and knew everything about various running gizmos. Unfortunately all this knowledge didn't make him a better runner, it just made him a more informed runner.
Knowledge alone doesn't make anyone faster; to become faster requires practice. Ultimately speed is determined by a mix of practice and genetics. I'm a fairly average runner, I can run three or four miles at a seven minute mile pace comfortably. I'm not fast though, the fastest mile I've ever ran was 6:09, and that was in high school. On my high school cross country team I was one of the slowest kids, not something I'm proud of, but a reality. I ran the same workouts as everyone else on the team, its just my body wouldn't move as fast as them. No matter what I tried I could never get it to move beyond a certain limit. Fortunately I haven't degraded much over time, in my 30s I can run at almost the same speeds that I did in high school. If I continue to degrade gracefully I'm looking forward to my 40s and 50s where I'll finally be able to win a race in my age bracket.
I think the parallels to running and investing are very similar. A lot of what applies to becoming a better athlete applies to becoming a better investor as well.
I receive emails from readers asking me the best way to learn how to invest, and become a better investor. The best way to learn how to invest is to get started and invest money. Just like with running, you can read a lot, and think a lot, but until the shoes hit the road, or the money hits the brokerage it's all just theory. There is an emotional component to investing that you will never experience until you see your money, the money you worked hard to save move up and down with the market.
Becoming a better investor isn't a matter of building a better process, or from practice researching companies. Becoming a better investor is done through the practice of actually investing. There is a feeling investors experience when they see their money drop 10% that you will never experience if you just follow a company. Yes, a market loss isn't realized until you sell, but it's an emotional gut check to see a loss and contemplate the things you could have purchased. It's also euphoric to take action on a stock and see the stock react the way you expected. The idea that money was invested and almost out of nothing new money appeared. No products were sold, no services offered, just a purchase, a period of waiting and voila, more money.
Getting started in a new activity is difficult. I remember the first time I ever ran, it was in 8th grade in the spring. I made it maybe a mile and thought I was going to die right there on the sidewalk. It was a terrible experience, I went home and told my parents I was going to quit the track team after my first day. They encouraged me to stick with it and give it a try. About a week later I remember running three miles, the feeling of accomplishment was incredible. What was impossible a week before was now possible.
The beginning of anything is difficult, you're starting from a standing still position, there is no momentum. Once you've started you build momentum, it's easier to keep moving with momentum. Researching and investing in your first company is difficult, it's not as difficult to invest in your 200th company.
Once you've begun and have started to gain some experience flaws will start to appear almost immediately. You'll notice things you missed, or things you're not good at. Continue to practice, but with each new investment work on fixing those flaws. Continually iterate, learn what went wrong, fix it and try again. From the continual iteration you'll start to build a repeatable process. An investing process is never finished, it's always a work in progress.
Another way to get started is by starting small and simple. Just like a beginning runner wouldn't run a marathon as their first practice, an investor shouldn't be tackling AIG warrants as their first investment. Start with simple companies where the accounting is easy to understand. Once you understand the easy accounting slowly start to invest in companies with more complex accounting that stretches your skills.
This method of learning and extending could be applied to investing in new industries as well. A common complaint I hear is that banks are too hard to understand and they're black boxes. Often the complaint will mention a money center bank such as Bank of America or Wells Fargo. Instead of trying to run a marathon first why not start with a very small and simple bank? Small banks have simple accounting and are easy to understand. I'm singling out banks because I'm familiar with the industry, but the same thing could be said for oil and gas, or biotech, or really anything.
Just like people naturally run at different speeds, people invest at different speeds as well. Just because Warren Buffett reads, thinks, and invests doesn't mean that if I replicate his steps the result will be the same. No matter how hard I try I will never break five minutes on a mile, my body is not built for it. I'm too old and slow, but I'm aware of my ability. We as investors need to be aware of our abilities and limitations as well. Some investors, the Superinvestors perhaps, are naturally more gifted. I can never match their ability, but that doesn't mean I can't enjoy investing, or work to maximize my own ability.
The best way to get better at anything is to do it. Do you want to improve at sales? Then sell. Looking to improve at marketing? Start marketing. Want to improve as an investor? Invest.
The formula is simple, almost too simple. Yes we can learn from the mistakes of others, and the experience of others is valuable. But the best experience is your own. You will remember your own mistakes and experiences better than you'll remember someone else's.
I am a runner as well and I think you hit the nail on the head. Getting better at most things in life is a process. This process has to be continually refined and iterative or it can quickly become obselete.
SB. I follow your blog closely as well and as usual, great stuff.
This post really resonates with me.
I have been somewhat paralyzed by the thought of actually starting to conduct compny/industry research because I don't want to start without reading/learning as much as I can first.
However, I know that I know enough to at least begin somewhere.
I think the next hinderance I have set for myself is not knowing what company to begin with and I would imagine a lot of beginners find themselves in the same boat.
With so many industries and companies out there, it can be a fairly daunting task to choose your first one to begin the process of becoming an investor.
In the hopes of helping myself and all the other prospective investors on this site, would you care to provide a list of companies or some sort of guidelines to choosing a small and simple company?
I know personally, that would be extremely helpful in finally taking my first steps and putting some of my knowledge to work and to getting the proverbial Snowball rolling.
Thanks
Completely agree with everything you said. The more time I spend investing the more mistakes I learn from, ones that you don't read about or even think about until afterwards.
Invest Your Goddamn Money (Originally Posted: 06/02/2013)
Working at BB IBD full time I am just amazed at how wasteful everyone is with their money. Growing up in an old money Canadian family, I've always been taught to invest 20 % of my earnings into a diverse portfolio. That's what I plan on continuing to do as I move through my IB career. However, people all around me try to impress each other with expensive bottles of champagne, LV suits, and overpriced gym memberships. Instead, why not just invest your money and build wealth? Not to mention the fact that we actually know our shit when it comes to investing...
Wow that's incredible, so is your family in the maple syrup or moose hunting business?
lmfao, but seriously how can you berate the people people buying fancy things with their money and then describe your self as coming from an "old money Canadian family" in the same post
Equities in Winnipeg
We've been the majority shareholders of Moose & Syrup INC ever since the merger of these two key Canadian monopolists :)
I completely agree. No one is impressed by overpriced off the rack italian suits or bottles at the club besides gold digging chicks. What will impress people in the long run is the fact that you've built wealth rather than squander your extremely high pay on massaging your ego.
Keeping up with the joneses is a primal instinct that is hard to overcome
I notice more often than it's people who don't come from money who then suddenly have access to it who spend in excess. The other side of the coin is those who don't need to think about how much they're spending.
Also amazed by the level of waste of some - banked 20k my first year so far and still have my bonus hitting later this summer. It's never how much you make, but how much you save.
This statement is Sooooo far from reality most of the time. Bankers are some of the most clueless people I've encountered when it comes to investing and really any facet of personal finance. Remember that Morgan Stanley chick who made VP and couldn't even balance her checkbook? She started a personal finance website after leaving MS.
Wait, are you suggesting that reverse engineering DCFs and adjusting pitchbook typefaces are not relevant to making investing decisions?
Actually, the reason all my non-401k/Roth IRA savings are in my checking account is because I have no idea about how to invest lol.
I mean, I’ve read the Intelligent Investor and follow a few websites, but even diversified equity ETFs and Bond ETFs are scary with stocks at an all time high and interest rates at an all-time low. I know it’s irrational, I just have no idea where to begin...
echo this. I've got $45k saved up (finishing up 1st yr as analyst) and its all in a high interest savings account... earning a real 0%. Of course its stupid - I know that logically. but I keep telling myself that once I get my bonus I can actually spend time thinking about what I want to do with it.
is no one else concerned/paralyzed by the following two things:
You have no idea what you'll be doing in 2 years/your money needs. Could equal pulling out savings at a market bottom while crying inside about how many 100hr weeks that money cost.
You work so damn hard and the thought of losing that money in the market is scary.
Just my 2 cents but an explanation of how some people can have literally their entire net worth in cash and know its stupid but not do anything about it....
It's my fucking money I'll do what I want with it.
Old money Canadian family?
Ha, dude, being the guy that sells Labbat Blue at children's hockey games doesn't make you "old money" anywhere outside of Canada, even though it probably got you elected mayor of whatever snow bank you crawled out of.
Really easy to say everyone should have a diverse actively managed portfolio when you've never worked a private side job where you had all kinds of trading restrictions. Yeah, I'm sure nobody's ever thought of that one before. If only a savior like you had come along earlier with this secret wisdom that I should invest a portion of my earnings in a diversified portfolio, I probably wouldn't be the proud owner of thousands of shares of worthless Lehman Brothers stock.
Oh wait, for most of us that's fucking illegal..
Op, have you considered buying a condo? Some of my banker friends did and the returns were decent.
You think you know how to invest thank to your 0-2 experience modeling to management expectations and pitch book building?
I'll second that, no offense to all of my HF people out there. If you aren't in PE or at a long term value fund you don't know shit about investing. Sure you might be able to point out arb or know how to do momentum trades or can throw your firms resources around to make a stock move. But that isn't investing. You need to know valuations sure but investing is about a game plan, its about the 5 10 15 20 30 and 50 year plans. These are things many IB guys think they know but in reality they don't.
Seriously, you in banking OP? All I hold is index funds, because I don't want compliance up my ass.
Never knew people cared so much what other people do with their money.
Also gotta love the market geniuses talking about picking stocks when you have markets going up all the time. Wait until there is a sell off and then we'll see who the market wizards are.
Have $700K, looking for long-term investment, advices? (Originally Posted: 04/03/2016)
Hi. I am new to this site. I am looking for legit advice for the investment decision that I will make shortly. I am looking to invest $700K and here are some considerations:
1) Investment is for the long term and should be passive. 2) Not looking for extraordinary return; average return is sufficient. 3) Liquidity matters little. 4) The loss will be quite significant, but acceptable.
Currently, I am looking for ETF or index fund, but have no idea what kinds of ETF or index fund I should buy. Any recommendation?
Note: My brother bought some sort of mutual funds from Wells Fargo and has no idea what the fuck he purchased. So far, we lost like $50K, and I am trying to fucking figure out which mutual fund he purchased and change it to the other sort of investment. I will update more info soon.
go into a vanguard target date fund based on when you expect to retire (example - https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=1…) or look into wealthfront or betterment. avoid mutual funds as they aren't worth the fees
this is where you are a bit off base. mutual fund is a structure, not an investment strategy. Jack Bogle, the king of index funds, owns mutual funds for himself and recommends people pick this structure for the long term (http://www.thestreet.com/story/13326091/1/jack-bogle-trump-is-wrong-etf…)
there's nothing inherently bad with the mutual fund structure versus the ETF structure (personally, I prefer the fund since it only trades once a day, less opportunity for disconnects like we saw in late August). and by the way, there are low fee mutual funds (vanguards total stock market admiral shares is 5bps), and there are high fee ETFs, what I believe you are saying is that you should buy index funds and not try to beat the market, which is a different argument.
now back to the OP...
OP, don't ask for investment advice on WSO. 90% of this forum is 15-20yo virgins who fap to having a business card that says bx, gs, or any hedge fund, many of them are not investors and have no idea what they're doing. there are some people who work at funds, both 40 act and hedge funds, but they don't share investment ideas, so the info you get will likely be shit.
by passive, do you mean index funds? or passive, as in you don't want a trading strategy?
if you want an index fund, buy the lowest cost vanguard total stock market index mutual fund, reinvest the dividends, and you're done. but personally, if you just came into this money, I'd recommend you talk with a few people first: relatives, family's financial advisor, etc., I've seen too many times people inherit money like this and then blow themselves up because instead of sticking with stocks for 20y and then not touching it, they trade in and out, make sector bets, and above all else, make these decisions at the worst possible times (e.g. selling in february 2009 or august 2011), but they always defend themselves because they're not paying anything in fees.
let me know if you have any other questions
Consider a degree. Asking for investment advice on blogs is what led to the first tech bubble.
How to pick investments (Originally Posted: 04/09/2007)
I know this may seem like a novice question, but I was wondering what PE firms look for in screening potential companies to invest in. Besides cash flow and debt levels, what other factors make a company appealing for a buy-out?
Usually PE targets are:
-very mature companies that have been established in their industry or sector -have assets that are not being utilized to their fullest, or have many unprofitable assets/businesses that can be sold off -ineffective management that can be replaced -high solid cash flows and low debt, solid capital structure (as you mentioned)
besides that, there are a bunch of other things that are case by case. for example if they see a multiple arbitrage opportunity between markets, PE firms will take advantage of that. But yeah, for the most part, that's it for the general traits
probably a dumb question...
but why is it a requirement that a PE target have low debt? does it only have to do with not being able to leverage the investment as much because of existing debt levels? or are there any other factors?
and i only really hear about this in regard to PE firms--is it ever a factor in good ol' corporate M&A? or not?
Not a dumb question. It's actually a dumb investment criteria. PE firms don't care about current debt load because they are going to bring their own financing structure to the table (probably much higher debt- 'Leveraged'BO) and the old debt gets refinanced anyway. The only time existing debt comes in to play is if its greater than the enterprise value (rare) or if there are major prepayment penalties - in which case they may just assume the existing debt and probably pile on more of their own.
really-so pre-investment debt levels aren't important at all? wow, thanks for blowing away one of the biggest assumptions about pe...lol!
mika, Have you ever done an LBO? Doesn't sound like it.
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