Trade wars with allies and our largest trade partners. Markets tanking. Consumer confidence tanking. Constant back and forth on tariff policy, constant mixed messaging. Economists agreeing this will harm the American consumer. Where was this in his campaigning?
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It's pretty hilarious that leftists think this is some sort of flex. A recession that was already coming and was getting predicted for the better part of a decade (only reason the market hasn't been flat/crashing has been the multi-year tech/AI rally), tariffs being used to threaten economic backwaters that have taken advantage of the American market for decades in order to get policy concessions (as was talked about on the campaign constantly; EU and Canada can go fuck themselves), and stopping tens of billions in blatant government waste & corruption in his first couple months. The constant malding in OT section of WSO is just a cherry on top. Not a doubt in my or anyone sensible's mind that it would've been better with the cackling DEI hire that's never managed to place top 5 in a primary. The only thing that could make me feel more optimistic is if this admin is smart enough to let the recession actually happen, use it to cut rates, and refinance the debt that the weekend at Bernie's crew apparently forgot about.
Keep shilling for a president that scams his own voters with a shitcoin. One that said he won't touch medicare to his supporters and has already done so within one month. A huge liar and top-tier nepo baby who would have been wealthier if he stuck his father's wealth in the S&P. You forget that more than just the president run this country. Trump's appointees are all sycophants who go on Fox News to lie to the American people about the state of the economy routinely. Lutnick said the recent poor performance is because of Biden when all technical and fundamental markers were pointing to soft landing under Biden.
Mald harder
Voted for Trump and agree with your logic. I admittedly think I may have voted for the wrong candidate. His trade policy is so volatile and I really hated his pick of RFK to run HHS. I believe in free markets within healthcare like most Republican capitalists but RFK is rarely factual about anything and that's dangerous to have at the head of US healthcare policy. At least Dr. Oz and Dr. Makarty both appear far more intelligible when supporting their viewpoints.
Was fairly centrist / lean left during the Obama years. Liked Tulsi Gabbard a lot in 2020, hoping the Dems come to their senses and push forward centrist candidates
The "could have put 100% of the money in the S&P 50 years ago" argument is so incredibly asinine. Can't believe how often it is used.
This is correct.
Golden age feeling.
I don't know whether his execution of tariffs is right down to the details, but I agree with the general idea. America's generous trade policy gave post-WWII countries a good 80-year stretch to recover and grow, but the party's over now. The world has mostly caught up, and we have our own problems to deal with. We should only trade freely with countries that reciprocate.
As for the so-called "soft landing," we have no idea how realistic that outcome is. Inflation ticked up in January, and that was after some big layoffs. Historically, recessions have always been the killers of inflation (e.g., post WWII and post-1970s stagflation), and I'm not sure how easy it is to avoid that.
You think free trade is a selfless gift you give to other countries? Have you not taken Econ 101?
Did you not read my last sentence there? It's not free trade when other countries slap on tariffs while we let them in nearly tariff-free
“Generous trade policy” when the U.S. was the largest exporter until 1970s 😅
Well 1945-1970 most of the world was still recovering from WW2. 1970s onward was the rise of Japan, then China. Opening up our markets to the world drove both of these things.
The “soft landing” we had was just a $2T deficit and almost all jobs created being government jobs, healthcare (quasi-government jobs considering how much intervention by gov in the market) and education (also quasi government jobs). The economy was a house of cards being held up by enormous deficit spending, an economic reset (which we really haven’t seen yet) is bound to happen this year imo. The tariffs are so-far negligible and I think Trump may come out of the other end looking like a genius. Firstly, no chance all the costs get passed on to consumers, companies do not have that kind of pricing power rn after way above trend inflation, margins will get hit, I don’t think they will be too inflationary. Market volatility could cause flight to bonds + economic weakness /gov spending cuts will weaken economy, paving way for yields to drop like a rock just in time to refinance $10T in debt that Biden admin extraordinarily irresponsibly borrowed short term when rates were zero. Tariffs also long term very beneficial for national security considering we gave away our whole industrial base to China (who’s also kinda our biggest adversary).
Also decrease in demand for US goods abroad, creates a increase in supply for the American market (groceries, consumer products) and could be deflationary, while simultaneously lots of good middle class manufacturing jobs. Everyday people don’t care too much about markets, the 60% own stocks stat is deceptive bc most own so little within that cohort, trumps plan is for the working class
Shhhh they're not ready to hear this. Or willing.
This lmao
You're right re the soft landing being fake, but the tariffs are not negligible and the uncertainty around them and his insane messaging are putting a complete hamper on any economic growth. No deals are happening because nobody knows wtf is going on. And how exactly does tariffs on Canada boost national security?
Im curious if you think "free" trade should contain reciprosity or should one side just eat the imbalance? The strong backlash to the tariffs comes down to simply this, it is a father punishing a child who got in trouble at school.
Our trading partners have been blatantly violating core precepts of organizations such at the WTOs ground rules for decades. I am absolutely unmoved by the cries of countries who have been in violation of their obligations for decades when the other party suddenly decides the change the arrangement.
Well im glad Trump can complete a full sentence, cant say the same for the last guy
Trump may have some advantages over Biden, but speaking is for sure not one of them. He talks like a toddler. I personally can't listen to him talking for more than 30 secs cause I feel super cringy.
Speaking in oversimplified terms vs not being able to speak at all is a pretty meaningful difference...
How about brazen corruption with i) Trump family considering pardoning CZ for a stake in Binance, ii) pardoning Eric Adams for sucking Trump off (causing a federalist society Trump appointed prosecutor to resign), iii) Trump defrauding his supporters and potentially allowing untraceable foreign actors to line his pockets with the Trump and Melanie coins
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I think I've already pointed this out in a different thread. While the tariffs are bad for the U.S. economy, Kalama's economic agenda is much worse. She proposed raising the taxes on the billionaires, which passes most of the tax on a consumer, the same as the tariff. But she doesn't stop there and continues with all her economic agendas set to ruin the U.S. economy, like the capital gains tax that would tank the market so hard and cause a massive selloff. The Trump tariffs are nothing in comparison. The question is then, if not Trump, then who? There are only two choices.
…higher taxes on billionaires are passed on to consumers like tariffs? Huh?
Did you attend the Donald J Trump school for people who can’t form coherent thoughts or grasp how economics work?
“Kalama” too - tell me you’re a MAGA shill without telling me you’re a MAGA shill lmfao
Dickriding is insane. Partisanship is a hellava drug
If you raise taxes on those who control pricing they will adjust pricing to meet their IRR tragets. Pretty simple concept.
Loving everything Trump is doing rn except tariffs
How about threats to take over Canada and Greenland?
How about DOGE destroying government services all to save the U.S. the budgetary equivalent of a $20 bill?
I hope it happens. Would be great.
I'm fine with it, fiscally the US needs to get it's house in order. Markets overvalued 30%+. We live in a de-industrialized nation, China can outbuild us in ships 200x. Nothing industrially productive gets done here. Increasing financialization of the economy.
i) Imports are like 15% of GDP in the U.S. -- taxes on trade don't move the needle and are ridiculous to talk about as a budgetary matter given how much the tax cuts in Congress are going to cost. If you agree with tax cuts, fine -- totally reasonable position in the abstract. However, to pretend to be a budget hawk and justify it with some handwavy 19th century mercantilist nonsense about tariffs is probably dumb in your case, but disingenuous in most others. I'd like lower / smarter taxes as much as the next guy but I have an economics degree and am not a moron (most of the time).
ii) I agree and shipping is an important dual-use technology (i.e. civil and military) like cars, planes, and now semis or consumer electronics (see drones in Ukraine). However, China got there by hoovering up cheap Australian iron ore and coal, shipped to China from Newcastle on vessels built in state-backed shipyards. They had an clear objective and they executed on it with targeted measures.
Trump is just lashing out somewhat randomly at our key allies, who are responding with actions like cutting orders for the F-35 -- how's that for promoting industry -- and does not have the focus to make lasting legislative change to promote industry at home like China can. The only major legislation in the prior administration was tax cuts, which was Paul Ryan and McConnell, not the White House.
Agree with all your takes. My point was just simply, I suppose it's the best the orange simpleton can do. I expect nothing positive for the next 4 years, all your points are sound.
Tariffs and disruptions were always in his campaign like front and center. I voted for this as a banker because Trump’s vision for the macro economy is a lender’s dream. And I think a lot of people on Wall Street voted for Trump not because they actively loved him rather the alternative was even more egregious.
Why are we pretending that Harris, despite only playing solitaire for the last 4 years as VP, actually had a pretty heinous agenda for the banking sector? She would have implemented Basel III requirements which would have really damaged lending returns, especially for corporate banking. At the same time, the Biden administration was horrendous about dealing with bank mergers where they had conflicting guidance where they would raise capital requirements to the point where a random small regional bank couldn’t juggle maintaining competitive rates, reserve requirements, and profitability. But then would block a majority of strategic bank mergers citing “anti-competitive” behavior.
Trump and Sec. Bessent want cheaper borrowing, so there could be a case to be made that with tariffs they are trying to push a contraction narrative to pull the 10yr yield down closer to 4.0% and pressure the fed to cut rates.
But who knows but I despise how people are acting like the choice was clear to vote for Harris. Like she was fucking horrendous. This woman was asked for her economic agenda and proceeded to have her team put out price controls and subsidies for new homebuyers, which she later had to walk back because of how retarded it was. Trump won because of how bad she was, not because he’s beloved by most Americans.
If you couldn't see it coming, then I'm surprised how you're in finance. Tariffs were one of his main points during campaign. And his wars with allies were also not a secret.
Everyone knew tariffs were coming, no one could imagine it would be to this scale imposed on our allies. That's where people feel duped.
I am not American, but this isn’t a really a ‘gotcha’ for Trump voters.
The alternative at the time was terrible, and if someone makes the point that it was obvious that Trump would do something like this then I would ask them to show me their short position on the S&P during the Trump trade.
The Democrats ran an insane campaign, coming off of years of DEI policies that went overboard to the point of 90% of people not understanding them. When you factor in Biden clearly not being sound of mind, I understand why people would roll the dice on Trump.
My American friends who voted for Trump are not happy. They do not wish they had voted for the Democrats for the above reasons and more, but they are still frustrated and disappointed with the turn this administration has taken.
I know hundreds of people that voted for Trump. I can't name a single one that is upset with how things are going. I know dozens of people who pretended to vote for Trump who constantly whinge and complain on the internet about how much they "regret their vote". But I know damn well they either 1) didn't vote or 2) voted for Harris. For fucks sake, one of them spent 4 years from 2017 - 2021 blasting all over facebook about how Trump was a Russian asset. Legit their brain is fried.
i am very far from a conspiracy theorist. but trump literally is a Russian asset right now lol and if you don’t believe your friend after the 2016 election - go watch the doc called “active measures” you’ll be singing a different tune once you’re actually informed
Pretty sure he’s going to come off looking brilliant from these tariffs. America will get a lot of investment and new jobs due to the tariffs.
Markets have been overvalued for a couple years now, shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
Federal government has needed a good cleaning out for decades. The wasteful spending is mind blowing. If states are wise they will do something similar.
I’d imagine we’re looking at 18-24 months of things really getting shaken up and then we’ll start to see the benefits of the tariffs. Kind of a standard timeline for fundamental business changes.
He’s not going to come off looking brilliant—consumer confidence is in the gutter, and when people aren’t spending, the economy slows down. These tariffs aren’t bringing jobs back; they’re just isolating America and making everything more expensive. And if he guts Social Security? That’s going to wreck a lot of families. Most people can barely afford their own bills, let alone take on the cost of supporting their parents. Social Security keeps two-thirds of seniors out of poverty—take that away, and millions of families are screwed. As for bringing factories back, it’s not that simple. Businesses don’t run on patriotism; they run on profit. Why would they pay Americans $25 an hour when they can hire workers overseas or use automation for way less? Look at farming—no farmer is paying Americans $25 an hour when they can pay migrants a fraction of that. That’s just reality. And let’s talk prices. You think inflation is bad now? If everything has to be made in America, costs will skyrocket. An iPhone won’t be $1,200—it’ll be $2,000. Basic goods will cost more, and those higher costs will hit regular people the hardest. People need to stop thinking tariffs are some magic fix. They’re not. They’re just making life harder while selling a dream that isn’t going to happen.
Consumer confidence isn't a relevant performance metric when assets are unaffordable. It doesn't matter if people have confidnce to buy something if they can't afford it anyway.
Plus most of your whatifs are things that no one has given any indication that they want to do. Trump wants to cut out all illegal immigration and deport the illegal migrants who are here now. How on earth do you expect people to pay lower wages if those second class people that will work for less are not here?
It is honestly shocking to me that people, no idea if this is you based on this post, advocate for illegal immigrants for no other reason than to lower the wages of their fellow countrymen. It's the absolute height of hypocritical nonsnse. People that advocate for illegals want a workforce of second class citizens that do not have worker protections.
Has anyone stopped to think that maybe this is the point? This might just be a forced asset price reset. Assets are way overpriced and need to be cut down. Is that painful? Sure if you actually own any. But something like 50% of Americans do not own any assets anymore. That number is close to 60% among the younger generations. If you are playing 80/20 politics a forced asset devaluation in my opinion is a winning strategy.
Consumer confidence absolutely matters. If people don’t feel secure financially, they don’t spend. When spending slows down, businesses suffer, layoffs happen, and the economy shrinks. It’s a cycle. Affordability is an issue, sure, but confidence determines whether people participate in the economy at all. As for wages—you’re contradicting yourself. You say deporting undocumented workers will somehow help wages, but if you eliminate millions of low-wage workers overnight, businesses either (1) raise wages, which makes everything more expensive for consumers, or (2) automate, which eliminates jobs entirely. That’s why farmers and construction companies aren’t lining up to hire Americans at $25 an hour. They’ll just replace those jobs with machines or outsource if they can. And let’s be real—no one is “advocating” for illegal immigration. Acknowledging how the labor market works isn’t the same as supporting something. Companies will always chase lower costs, whether through cheap labor, automation, or moving operations overseas. That’s reality, whether you like it or not. Now, this “forced asset reset” nonsense—do you actually hear yourself? You’re acting like a recession is some genius strategy to make housing more affordable for young people. But here’s what actually happens: people lose jobs, savings get wiped out, credit tightens, and those same young people you’re pretending to care about can’t buy anything anyway. Meanwhile, the people with cash on hand (i.e., the wealthy) swoop in and buy up cheap assets, further consolidating ownership at the top. You’re pushing an economic collapse as if it’s some populist win, but in reality, the only people who benefit from a downturn are the ones already holding the cards. Meanwhile, working people get crushed. That’s not a “winning strategy.” That’s just wishful thinking wrapped in bad economics.
I would agree with you in the context of people having money to spend. That is what people in the top 10 - 15% fundamentally do not understand. You assume that purchasing decisions are a matter of confidence in the future and not based on the reality that those individuals in the prime expenditure period of their lives just do not have money to spend period. It doesn't matter if you are super upbeat about the economy, you are never going to buy a home in any metro area if you make 50K a year or less as an individual. You might barely be able to scrape by if you have a household income of 100K gross with no kids and be able buy a home in some metro areas.
Confidence only plays into this situation if the populace has disposeable capital.
Uh, dude one of my companies is in construction. Our prevailing wage right now in a non major market is $37 per hour. For projects are we working on in top 10 markets it is closer to $45, this is paid wage not all in costs. Companies are absolutely lining up to pay Americans $25 per hour in construction. I think that people who opine on the state of the economy have no fucking idea what reality actually is. For fucks sake you rely on data from the BLS that collects data the same way they did in the 1960s.
Also, people are 100% advocating for illegal immigration. Listen to what people say, not what you want to them to say.
Your assumption about how the credit cycle works ignores a major issue. Those rich people tend to be some of the highest levered people in the economy. Asset price deflation will impact them significatly more than those not in the market or those who have extensively lower leverage.
Also, for those of you who think tariffs are exclusively a tool of Trump might want to brush up on your tariff history with Biden.
I'm an independent lol! So i'm making no comparisons. Isolating America will not benefit us one bit.
I'm not tired of winning yet.
EU/Europe been free riding on us for the last 30 years. Time for them to pull weight. If they want to carry Ukraine, let them do it.
Auto manufacturing should be pushed back to the US. I believe there will be reshoring in that portion of the economy.
DOGE is required until we have a balanced budget. Needs to be shrunk. That there are massive cuts in hyper partisan left wing portions of the government is a nice bonus though.
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