Future Real Estate
Nothing in real estate has been easy recently. Curious to hear from folks with +5 yrs of experience their view on how the next 5 to 10 years goes.
My general view is that real estate typically exhibits (junk) bond-like returns over the long run. In hot markets, either due to government intervention and/or low interest rates, given the typical leverage amounts, these periods generate outsize returns. I think we are leaving / have left one of these "boom" periods (~2010-2020, roughly), and are facing widespread contraction in the industry matched with potentially contagion.
The flip side is that population growth continues, rates are low once again, and the industry is too closely tied to pension funds, endowments, retirement accounts, making it too big to fail.
Hold on to make it out of this credit cycle? Pivot to a more secure role at a bank or pension fund? Or is the next real estate boom +10 years away, and waiting for it could be a fools errand and sector always chasing the previous glory days?
The next 5 to 10 years in real estate will likely be shaped by a mix of challenges and opportunities, as highlighted in some of the most insightful WSO threads. Here's a breakdown of key trends and considerations:
1. Challenges Ahead
2. Opportunities to Watch
3. Strategic Considerations
4. Final Thoughts
Real estate may not see the same outsized returns of the 2010-2020 period in the near term, but it remains a cornerstone of institutional portfolios. The key is to adapt to the current environment, focus on resilient asset classes, and position yourself for long-term success. Whether you hold on, pivot, or diversify, staying informed and flexible will be your greatest asset.
Sources: CRE Trends That Are Emerging Now and Will Prevail Throughout Our Careers, Real Estate Trends (All Asset Types), Real Estate Industry in a bubble?
If I could predict the next 5-10 years I’d quietly make money off it, not post about it on WSO.
In reality, no one can predict the future. Especially now.
Fair but that is always the case and yet we still try to predict the future by discounting future cashflows, tying up land, and evaluating pipelines of supply/demand.
Even if you don't literally make a prediction, you are inadvertently expressing a prediction on what you think tomorrow looks like through your actions. Would you go work as a phonebook salesman?
This was just not a helpful comment - give your view or move on. You’re a d-bag on these forums half the time for no reason
And what did your anonymous comment here help with?
I’m secure with my positive contributions to this website. If you think I’m a “d-bag,” take your own advice and move on.
I'm more bearish than bullish on real estate over the next 5 years
Yes - margins will be tough for the next ten years. You won’t be able to make money investing without a good thesis or edge. I’m doubtful we will ever return to the glory days low interest rate years ever again.
This isn’t just real estate though - it’s every industry (tech was a huge beneficiary of low rates, how do you think they funded all of the R&D they are unwinding now?).
A combination of 50 years worth of greed cumulating in the Covid boom are now going to be unwound. There is going to be a clear wealth divide from those who made money during this era and going forward. I doubt we’ll return to a true employees market like we experienced from 2015-22 for many years.
It sucks to realize how fucking awful our policy makers were over the last 50 years and how fucking bad of an inflation problem they made - but what are we gonna do cry about it?
There is still money to be made but it’s going to be a lot harder. I think everyone is going to have to fight hard for deals, their seat and their compensation. There is a preverbal line of scabs forming. Hell the guy that just took and MD seat at my company took 100k less salary then the last guy (he had been out of work for a year and half; you could have gotten a date with his mother). You bet there has been a tight squeeze on my team sense then…
So to answer your question - despite all of this YES it’s worth it to grind it out over the next 10-20 years IF RE is what you can do best.
Definitely will be a boom at some point during this period and I’d expect those of us that can hold on to jobs with carry over this period will be just fine relative to anything else you can do. It’s just not going to be the days where companies (including tech) made young people in there late 20s/early 30s millionaires.
But what the fuck do I know my crystal ball has been broken for some time now…
This is your takeaway? Two years or so of exceptionally modest inflation, and your takeaway is that is what the problem of policymaking for the last half century has been? Lol.
I didn’t really set out to talk about macro economics over the last half century but we are going to be in a higher for longer environment. Read Howard marks sea of change - that basically explains what I’m getting at.
We just went through an era of progressively lowering interest rates and now we have to pay the piper.
And do you really believe that 30-40% increase in costs is modest? Come on…this is going to take a decade for this mess to unwind.
Good points. Two personal disagreements:
(i) tough to blame a weak market today on the previous 50 years nor policy makers. I agree about the wealth divide, but I think that's a larger societal "trend" that will impact everything, real estate included.
(ii) I think even today (in the face of higher interest rates and less business confidence) there are still a ton of late 20s/early 30s millionaires. In fact, I think with AI the opportunity for a small team (or individual) to become rich in a short amount of time is actually unprecedented. Again, goes back to the societal bifurcation theme which it sounds like we agree on.
The stuff you mentioned addresses societal themes... but I'm curious what people think strategically. For ex, if urbanization continues and AI reduces white collar jobs, are you short office bldgs in downtown cores? If homeownership climbs out of reach, are you long residential rental development? If you are long residential rental development, are you also long self storage facilities?
Yeah I mean I very well might be wrong - AI could be a huge game changer and make regular folks lots of money.
Regarding last 50 years - my point is we have had progressively lowering interest rates the last 50 years which went up 5x from what they were in 2022. That hasn’t happened in anyone working today’s life time.
I think this all impacts today but you could argue it’s a lot less impactful than I think it is…it’s a fools errand to try and understand macro economics imo.
My opinion is that anyone thinking the way you do, doesn't know what the fuck they're talking about.
Real estate was exceptionally easy and exceptionally lucrative for about a decade, because interest rates were exceptionally low and growth and demand remained strong. That is not the usual business climate in this industry.
What you are trying to say, but don't have the context or knowledge to get to, is that we are leaving an era in which any idiot with a polished enough pitch deck could raise money to do a stupid project that didn't make sense, because capital was cheap and no one bothered to do diligence on sponsors. The last decade or two in the United States was essentially a gamblers paradise in many industries. People were more concerned with missing out on a win, than on avoiding a loss, and in real estate that mindset is a great way to lose a lot of money, very quickly.
If you have some specialized knowledge of a market or product, and any kind of track record, you'll be fine. You'll be more than fine, because you won't be competing against the same morons that you had to for the last 15 years. Downturns are only bad for shitty real estate operators; people with actual knowledge, experience, and ability tend to make most of their money in down periods (or on the tail end of them) as every asshole who bought on completely fictional assumptions for 10% over market ends up having to liquidate or goes into foreclosure.
I mean this is almost exactly what I’m saying. Maybe not in the most cohesive way.The years of easy money are over.
Yes good operators will make money but there is already and going to continue to be a squeeze if your an employee. Again what the fuck ya gonna do it’s hard in every sector.
Sure. But you expressed this as if "the years of easy money" lasted decades, when in reality it was a very small stretch of time in the 2010s in which easy credit warped markets. We're going back to an equilibrium state, I hope, not entering some new era of fiscal rectitude.
I guess? This all presupposes that as an employee, you should be guaranteed a high paying seat with enormous bonuses that get paid out regardless of whether you drive value or not. Personally, I think incentive structures across industries, especially for high paying white collar work, have gotten way out of hand.
Just ignore him man
Bad attitude aside... anything with a lot of leverage in a low interest rate environment does well. Do you think rates will remain lower/higher/same over the next 5-10 years?
If I knew that, I'd be making billions of dollars as a trader.
When we put together a capital stack that requires equity, we underwrite cap rate expansion. Make a modest assumption that things will be worse and don't lose sleep over it. If your deal can't take an extra 150 bps of interest expense without going bust, you paid too much to begin with.
decade? try 30 years it was easy
I doubt people at the time would've said that. Looking back, the ways to make money are always easy. As per the point of this thread, the way to make money the next ten years is what is difficult.
Someone takes a risk, proves a strategy, makes a ton of money, and then everyone else and their uncle piles in, compressing yields. And all anyone says is "how easy" it was for the early movers, because they're salty they don't have some tried and true method to make oodles of money with minimal risk. Yeah, if you aren't creative or innovative and you simply copy the flavor of the month strategy, you don't hit it big. Why that is surprising is beyond me.
Overall, CRE will have some bright spots that are sector or location dependent. However, the biggest drag will be the lack of demand and incomes growth in the population compared to costs. Rising rents and occupancies cures costs overruns and expense busts. Prices only go up, and unfortunately labor has less power today due to AI diminishing the value of white collar work. Most real estate rents or sales is based on the margins (ie the 2% or so of home inventory for sale), so it doesn’t take a lot of decline to become a drag.
The K shaped recovery seems more and more the long term reality.
I think if there is going to be another overall boom in another 10 years, it will be due to RE being a safe haven against inflation or currency devaluation. Gold and crypto generate no cash flow, but RE does and you can use it.
A fundamental difference between CRE and other types of investment is that it is difficult to scale your CRE successes beyond the units or square feet of your project/investment. There is a cap on downside and upside. Sure, early success in a project can help a company grow, but each new investment is a return visit to the so called efficient market casino (ie there are exceptions like successful shopping malls that are expanding with condos).
What I’m trying to get at is in a more crowded, efficient market, your odds of hitting a home run is low but if you hit, you can hit big (ie grand slam). You take your 10% odds outcome and ride it - as an employee, that’s getting stock options and being a multi millionaire. We don’t see that structure in CRE. We might get carry, but like I said, the upside is capped (no chance your $100,000 underwritten promote becomes $10,000,000 in a 1% outcome; it just doesn’t work that way in CRE).
So, CRE is steady eddy. It’s always been.
But steady eddy in a rising demand and income country? That works.
Steady eddy in a niche profession that is an exclusive club? That works.
Except those assumptions are no longer the case.
The problem is most industries are having their upside diluted. I think the trades will get diluted as well. That’s what happens when people chase.
I said CRE will have bright spots. Find what they are. They might not be traditional CRE.
I think real estate skillsets meshed with industry knowledge and a CFO capability is the “amorphous” way to get in important roles in companies with “stock option like” upside while partaking in bright spots in the future economy. There are enough jobs and opportunities for ambitious people who think this way. I can’t just wait around for a macro event to put me in the money, as I’m sure many of you are.
Now that I think of it, 5 years ago, I JV’ed with a traditional RE company (they brought money, balance sheet, and project mgt expertise) and helped them pivot into an early inning industry to make a ton of money. I see opportunity for you folks to follow suit. If you are feeling shitty, traditional RE firms are probably also feeling shitty, and could use some new ideas. Become experts in where they want to go. Do that and you’ll have more upside personally (and untraditionally). With the right timing and opportunity, you won’t personally need to take much risk; that’s what the traditional guys are for, that’s what they bring to the table.
This could be a trend.
Softness in CRE due to high costs have been visible since starting around 2016 in my view, so this ship has been sailing this direction for awhile.
Yes, I see bright spots of opportunities.
So household income will not grow quickly enough to generate (excess) demand to drive growth. Fair summary? If it is fair, what happens if AI is a bust and HHI does continue to increase?
Alternatively, if demand is a proxy for population growth, why can't that continue to increase over the next 5-10 years? Wouldn't there still be an angle to play re: urbanization?
Agree that alternative asset classes are in the spotlight right now. But, (i) do they have staying power? and (ii) are they good ideas or is there just nowhere else to put capital?
One, I’m trying not to be political because I don’t know what the current immigration environment is going to do for population growth.
An early career memory, I was drinking a cocktail at the pool of the Ritz Carlton in Naples, Florida and ran into our REPE’s head of research (who’s now heading research for a sovereign wealth fund). He said many many years from now, there would be three countries with a billion population. Ok, don’t take this too literally, but they were China, India and the United States. The US because of our freedoms, economic opportunities, immigration inflow, etc. So overall, demand at the country level, is population growth.
But, population growth can be local and regional, so I was careful to just say demand. Japan’s population is shrinking but people are moving to Tokyo, for example.
I don’t think AI will be a bust in terms of labor disruption. It might be a temporary bust in terms of valuations and infrastructure. Agentic AI so far in 2025 is growing exponentially. Sure, I live in SF and attended an AI bootcamp to learn Google co-lab recently along with data scientists, software engineers, and random people like me in CRE.
This graph is the difference between 1Q2025 and 3Q2025, the number in millions of AI bots being used. Some for fun stuff but a lot for making work more efficient. Work will change. Fewer people will be needed and it started happening rapidly this year.
Alternative asset classes and niches are all dependent on timing. The reason why they are alternative or niche is they are prone to becoming over saturated quickly, with bad results for those who are late.
New openings pop up and they can be location or sector dependent.
I do senior housing, which had a rough I’d say 2016 - 2022 (oversupply) and now with a slowdown in new development, some regaining of balance. But we can have oversupply again.
If I’m an owner of a real estate company today and want to explore options, I’d be talking to operators, government economic development people (state/county/city), basically observing.
For example, I recently helped my home state (Hawaii) develop an agriculture logistics hub which included the state buying HPP Machines (you can look them up and imagine why Hawaii could use it). Technology + government investment + Growing market = need for some specialty RE. Now, if I somehow spent the past 7 years poking around cold storage facilities and just so happen to come across this, I would jump all over this RFP, because the market is so thin. Main thing is to be fascinated by something asset intensive and then explore it.
I love MRI testing. I think it’s a way to get early diagnosis of cancer, something that runs in my family and affects everyone. Private pay MRI testing centers are popping up, mainly targeting rich people.
Those are two things if I wasn’t focused on seniors and digital immortality, I would spend the next several years becoming an expert in, because I personally love those areas. They are RE adjacent, high asset intensive, soon to be sectors.
Real estate, like other equities, is a cyclical industry. We were on an extended bull run from 2011-2022, but the market turn was always coming and we saw elements of that in 2023. I still don't think this is a necessarily "bad" dip, but everything has gotten more challenging over the past few years. Debt/equity are harder to come by, companies aren't expanding at the same clip as they were, if your portfolio is large enough you are dealing with some amount of issues, bad debt is up, expenses are up, etc etc etc. So we are in the "not fun" part of the cycle. That doesn't mean there aren't good deals, that doesn't mean you won't have good outcomes, but right now is not the time that "most" real estate deals are doing well. When you are in a bull run, it always looks like the bull run will continue longer than it will....and when you are in the trough, it always seems like it will be longer to get out of it. I don't think the next ten years will be bad unless there are some real long-term headwinds in the economy and real estate in particular (which to be certain, I can make an argument for a couple that could turn out that way). But generally pain turns to opportunity which turns to great returns which causes increased capital flows to eventually lead to the peak, and then you start over again.
People forget that real estate is a cyclical industry LOL
Ya 4% cap days are over but doesn't mean there aren't opportunities still in different segments of the market, just need to be sharper with your underwriting when borrowing rates aren't sub 3%
For the veterans - how did RE change in the early 2000s with the internet? How did conversations or DD evolve back then? Maybe some pattern recognition for now.
Real estate is entering a more normal / contractionary cycle after the 2010–2020 boom. Tight credit and leverage will suppress near-term returns, but structural tailwinds — population growth, institutional capital, and “too big to fail” dynamics — keep the sector resilient.
If you want safety, pivot to a bank, pension fund, or asset manager. If you can stomach volatility, staying opportunistic could pay off — but don’t expect the next boom anytime soon. Diversify, protect downside, and be patient.
to be quite honest, I think I will pivot to the niche fragrance industry full time. much more exciting and fun at the moment. real estate in the last 3 years has totally sucked....time to pivot
This question haunts me in my sleep. I’m speaking specifically from a multifamily perspective but I think my points apply broadly (both across product types and industries outside of real estate).
Simply put, the supportive fundamentals that have existed in/for the US the last 100 years (certainly the last 40) will cease to exist during my lifetime, and I presume relatively soon.
1. Debt in the short term (~5 years) will likely grow less expensive, but over the long-term I expect treasuries to rise (so, values to grow anemically compared to the last 40 years). The 40 year super cycle bull run in treasuries is certainly over.
2. I think most have caught on to the population/demographic cliff at this point, but it’s tough to overstate the downstream effects. For multi, this means less demand, growing competition (boomers liquidating their SFHs will create oversupply of this product, which will drive home prices down and pull would-be renters into the buyer pool), and likely flat to declining incomes.
Even if the US is able to drain other countries and maintain its population (unlikely), the global population will still be falling which leads to endless other issues (no one working chinas factories, less innovation and tech demand from Korea, greater political instability in Europe, and on and on).
3. Labor. Due partly to 2. above, labor will be less plentiful. However, there was already a significant decline in young people going into the trades and/or working in maintenance, and same goes for property management.
4. Materials. Probably don’t need to elaborate, same/similar drivers as have already been outlined. Don’t think on shoring will keep pace.
It sounds so doom and gloom, but the math is difficult to dispute. Usually an optimist about things.
Agree in principle with everything you said - actually planning to leave the industry as I don’t see much upside staying put in today’s market. But going to play devil’s advocate on a few of your points.
Regarding 2, ignoring the flat/declining incomes, an oversupply would reduce the cost of housing, and many people state the cost of living is their main reason for not having kids. Perhaps the real estate industry’s pain will be to the benefit of population growth in the long term as home ownership becomes more attainable?
I could also see policy being implemented to increase population growth if things get bad enough (think the opposite of the one child policy). Of course this would only work if $ is the reason people are having fewer kids.
On 3, I actually think labor will increase as people start to realize that blue collar jobs offer more opportunity for the average middle class person. I think today we have way too many people pursuing university that would have been better off pursuing a trade - even looking at job postings, I have noticed some maintenance/property management roles post higher salaries than property accountant roles at the same firm/experience level. With the slowdown in white collar hiring, and AI expected to reduce headcount, I would hope to see more people enter the trades? Anecdotally, of the friends I grew up with that did pursue a trade, most are doing quite well for themselves and work is plentiful.
4 - if there is a shift in the labor market where more people pursue trades, this would reduce the cost of materials to some extent as the cost of labour goes down. But yes, hard to overcome de-globalization…
I would enjoy any and all other views on this, it’s certainly not my preference to think as I do now.
Your point on 2. is unfortunately a bit narrow (not an insult, my brain initially went here).
People not having kids is the product of an overwhelming number of factors, which demographers are working tirelessly to unwind (so it appears). The problem is so perverse across the world that it’s difficult to pin the issue on any single thing despite the reasons that come out of people’s mouths. From my reading and listening the common thread between countries/continents (literally everyone’s birth rates are declining short of a few countries) is the introduction of the internet/smart phone, women entering the labor force, religion/shared truth/culture (lack of and cohesion on these things), and a few others I can’t remember off the top of my head. Of course COL is a factor, and I’m sure it’s quite large. But it doesn’t appear to be THE cause/not that simple.
Regarding incentives, most countries have fallen flat on their face trying to incentivize their citizens to have kids. IIRC Poland has had success, and a very select few others by focusing on childcare costs. We need to get smarter on this front and I’m so far not seeing that from any G7 country and not from those on the leading edge of this issue (Japan, China, Korea, Italy, etc).
Overall I just have a dark cloud hanging over me on this. It’s like globalization and corporatism (not capitalism) and consumerism have gone unchecked for so long and become so fine tuned that they’ve turned the populace into drones.
Your points on 3 and 4 are more plausible (I hope they are), and I don’t have much to respond to there.
Finally! Someone thinking about some actual trends with big potential impacts to real estate.
A big trend I am worried about in commercial real estate is how there are simply fewer corporations these days (~7500 in late 90s, today ~4500). Many industries are dominated by oligopoly-like conditions and there is just too much capital for not enough business it seems. The major source of growth in new businesses over the past 25 years has been in IT/tech and I see that world as the first to experience major contraction due to AI.
I may be giving an overly simplistic answer here but I think the two biggest issues here are:
1) Prices have not yet corrected enough to reflect the increased cost of debt. Guys who don’t need to sell are sticking to high prices with the hope that interest rates go down. This issue corrects one of two ways in my opinion. We eventually hit enough delinquent mortgages and refinancing issues that the market gets flooded with lender owned assets, which should in theory lower prices. Or the bull case is that interest rates come back down and current prices are justified.
2) There just seems to be too many people playing the fee game with OPM. I recently got outbid on an industrial deal where I had a tenant with term and credit willing to sign a lease with no broker involved. I still got outbid by an industrial REPE fund buying on spec and they are going to probably have a vacant building for 12 months + spend 7 figures on broker commissions to lease this thing up. I can’t comprehend how this deal made sense for them at that price point but I suspect the end result is the operator will do ok with the fees they are taking in and this ends with another Canadian pension fund LP overpaying for mediocre returns. I don’t know how the situation resolves itself but I get the feeling the industry has gotten too institutionalized, no one is using their own money, and keeping the lights on to collect fees on OPM matters more than actually finding good deals. These seem to be the types of bidders who are keeping prices elevated in a lot of situations.
I work at a high profile GP. Can 100% confirm this.
Don't underestimate the need to ride out a rough stretch by pulling in some fees. My former employer blew up a massive industrial deal (10m+ SF of warehouse over several buildings) because they were scared about terminal valuations. Valuations that wouldn't be realized for 3-4 years from now for the first structures, and 7-8 for the later ones. It seems insane to me that you throw that away because the market isn't looking hot in the next 12 or 18 months. The fees they could have pulled from that project would have been huge.
Without seeing the numbers, that seems very rational to me.
All this dry powder that everyone talks about will need to get out the door. You had funds raising records amount of capital in 2021 and 2022 with fourish year investment windows. Guess what? Those investment windows are coming up, and I bet you a good number of funds are only 50% invested, if that. You are going to see some stupid stupid crap in 2026. I've seen groups going into markets they have no knowledge of for deals, I've seen retail net lease buyers all of a sudden doing industrial, I've seen cap rates on certain kinds of retail that boggle the mind, multifamily cap rates are, at best, interest rate neutral (but not really)....people have to buy things soon, and there are not enough compelling opportunities on the market for them.
Blackstone just took Hawaii’s publicly traded Alexander & Baldwin private (ALEX). Expect some spin off of assets from the portfolio to feed these funds in need of investment. Lots of safeway anchored shopping centers.
I have no clue why people here are so negative on real estate
The next ten years will offer truly generational wealth opportunities in the business
Yes all the easy ways to make money are gone but that’s a great thing
Honestly seeing all the negative talk gets me excited. See all the people here complaining about how hard the real estate job market gets me excited
It might take a bit to get going and the recovery might not be over night but it will happen. It always does. And the ones who stay in the game will get rewarded
I think the red flags are fairly apparent... to discredit them seems disingenuous. At a high level:
Curious what generational wealth opportunities you see? I would agree that if things get worse over the next 3-5 yrs, it will open up a lot of opportunity thereafter... but that implies that you (or I) survive the next 3-5 years.
The most deal activity I am seeing at the moment is coming from investors buying IPP deals in 100% cash or groups working with lenders on their distressed loans. Neither of those give me comfort that we are in a good place right now, nor that the future looks bright.
Fingers crossed I'm wrong!
You are dead wrong
I can give a long explanation but it honestly comes down to buying low and selling high
I heard this exact same talk in 2009
Real estate was “dead”. Why was I in this business
People said the same things in 1995. After a brutal 6-8 year period of time real estate was “dead” too
But to me keep saying it’s screwed. I hope everyone on here says that and thinks it. I hope many leave the industry due to it.
I hope the next couple years stay challenging and weed out the ones without the mental fortitude to hang on.
It happens every cycle
Quitters
In ten years, people (at least in the multifamily and single-family space) will look back and say housing was an obvious investment. They’ll point to the 4–6 million unit housing shortage and claim the signs were impossible to miss. They’ll say the easy money has already been made and that anyone paying attention could have seen prices rising due to labor constraints and the shrinking supply of buildable land.
What they won’t mention is what it felt like to invest during this period: interest rates doubling or tripling, rents stagnating, values declining by ~ 20%, and localized oversupply in certain markets.
Investing for the future is never obvious in real time, Iit only appears that way in hindsight.
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