It appears Rise48's team has been working hard and successfully forced WSO to remove the thread about them. There was likely exaggerated statements in that thread which gave them an legal avenue to have it removed but by doing so, a huge disservice is being done to current and prospective investors. It's wild to think that despite the things being said about Tides, Nitya, Western Wealth, etc., it's Rise48 that is emerging as the real villain of the industry.
Fortunately, this can still be combatted with truths. It's true that:
1) The majority of Rise48's portfolio is underwater and if portfolio values were marked to market values today, limited partner investments would be completely wiped out. Rise48 themselves have requested and received broker opinions of value themselves, which have said the same;
2) Rise48 was and continues to be one of the largest borrowers of debt fund loans - short term, floating rate interest rate loans;
3) Their business model relies on others raising money for them through a series of "Fund of Funds". These fund of funds are ran by individuals inexperienced in real estate, often doctors, dentists, and other business professionals that have no other involvement in the investments other than handing them money. Rise48 encourages professionals outside of real estate to raise money for them by creating dedicated investor portals and recently launching Fundamental Raisers, a "mastermind" group teaches individuals to raise money (for a fee of course). As of 6/3/2024, it appears that Fundamental Raisers is no more and they've transitioned to Fundamental Portal - a software / investor portal specifically for the fund of funds model.
4) Rise48 continues to be one of the most active buyers in multifamily, raising capital exclusively from retail investors and using tactics that raise red flags to most industry professionals. The public is starting to take notice, evident by a recent 25-part post by m. stanfield on X (https://x.com/mu2myoc/status/1779260667335229921). The post does a great job highlighting how someone should review an offering and the red flags associated with this particular investment which is very typical of Rise48 and in this particular case (Cochran Capital - the "fund of funds" capital raiser_. To highlight a few:
Lets stick to truths when discussing Rise48 so the reality of the practice is not scrubbed from the internet. Hopefully, current LPs can become informed and prospective investors can be educated prior to putting their dollars at risk.
This is unfortunate if this is true, it's a bad look for Rise.
You think this is bad. The founder of Nitya Capital came on here to argue with a bunch of analysts. Oh man that truly was the highlight of WSO for me.
Can you link that thread?
I saw a Real Deal headline today that Rise closed on a multifamily in DFW. That surprised me as many folks have had concerns about Rise for a while, yet they're still closing. I'd be very curious to know deal terms of the DFW product. It's been a while since I've seen on-market deals there that have made sense. Granted I'm looking on Crexi, but still
Their deals certainly won't check the box of a deal that makes sense but they or one of their "fund of funds" posted the deck online. They can raise because they have a continuous supply of newly formed fund of fund operators ready to lose the friends and families money.
https://x.com/mu2myoc/status/1779267810075521154
Thanks for sharing. I've been trying to break into the industry after completing my MRED over a year ago, and it's been tough. While I'm not getting actual experience, I'm still learning a lot from analyses like Stanfield's, CRE Analyst on LinkedIn, the Tides Equities thread here, etc. Hopefully those types of analyses can save some retail investors from losing their money
- - - - - - -- - - -
Yes that deal was from Wester Wealth, Rise is out here keeping all the other Syndicators alive by sending out lifelines and buying crap no one else would touch.
Bump
.
we all know how this ends, with Zach throwing Bentley Haptonstall under the bus.
https://rise48equity.com/bentley-haptonstall/
does he "fly back and forth between" those offices in a little carrier under the seat on a commercial flight?
Does anyone have the link to the Bigger Pockets thread that was recently about Rise 48 or did they get that website to remove the thread that questioned their abilities as well?
It looks like the Moderator team continues to censor posts, presumably under legal threat of Rise48. That's disappointing. Perhaps there should be a more exclusive forum that's private for real estate so these matters can be more openly discussed away from prying eyes.
reddit.com/r/commercialrealestate
Same thing happened with Nitya. The founder came on here to yell at everyone and then we started seeing threads disappear.
Can confirm that they are silencing online forums and comments through legal threats and notices. Someone I know received one LOL
im not from the real estate industry but I do enjoy reading such threads (in general, about any industry). I recall similar threads being posted about another real estate outfit. not sure if developer or management or REIT or w/e but I recall there was a short seller research note posted about them and a lot of speculation here about what it meant for the wider industry. does anyone recall the name & how things turned out?
Sounds like Arbor Realty?
thank you very much! thats the one. i had a search on WSO archives and I think I am remembering reading this initial thread from back in Nov-23 (although many before and a few since):
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/real-estate/arbor-realty-trust-sl…
Well it appears that Rise48 is going full on guerilla marketing. I am seeing their ads come up everywhere as well as all their executives posting about their new fund of funds partnerships and property closings. They are also doing a lot of Facebook advertising that is coming up as "Promoted".
Gotta find new sucker investors to feed the machine. They’ve lost all their existing investors money.
Do a lot of existing investors know their money is lost? I heard that a Bloomberg Reporter is asking questions about a story they are writing about this.
Now this isn't totally true necessarily. Let's be fair - at prices today, sure yeah, a lot of that money is lost depending on the deal. But give it enough time (5-10+ years), they could come out on the other side. But, that IRR is going to come out suppppeeeer low and be nowhere near projections.
Buying deals at a 5-5.5% cap with 9+% short-term debt is idiotic. Especially with non-accredited investor savings - these things prey on Roth's and 401k's. People talk about the debt loads on existing deals, that is only part of the problem. None of these guys have a clue about operating properties. Tides not only is missing debt payments but is also logging massive deficits on accounts payable and management fees. The small debt funds are as much to blame as the sponsors...no experience. Complete disservice to investors and the industry.
Why do investors deserve any sympathy? They invested with obvious bad actors and are paying the price; any single person who invested in a Rise48 deal deserved to lose their money. We should be applauding this outcome, not lamenting it.
Look, all of these syndicators shouldn't be viewed as actual landlords. They are vehicles through which to churn deals and generate fees. Once you understand that owning, operating, and otherwise being in the business of being a landlord was only ever a tangential concern for the Rises and Tides and Applesways of the world, the whole situation makes sense. Don't complicate something when the solution is staring you in the face.
I think you're giving these guys way too much credit. Have you ever talked to the Rise or Tides crew? They genuinely believe they're making great deals. Sure, they're cutting corners and adding a ton of fees, but when it comes to deal specifics or macro events, they have no idea what they're talking about. And yet, they're convinced their deals are exceptional.
That's partly why they can raise so much money. If they knew they were buying junk, they'd have to be top-notch con artists (and maybe some of them are). But these guys aren't slick salesmen; they truly think they're offering investors a golden opportunity so you kind of buy into that genuine pitch. It's actually hilarious when you think about it. They're not that shady; they're just clueless. I guess the investors should've been more skeptical too.
I agree with your second statement. Disagree with investors deserving to lose their money though - unfortunately, the syndicate system allows inexperienced sponsors to access that market, which is comprised of retail level investors who didn't understand what to look for.
What are the repercussions of working for a syndicator like this that eventually goes under? Not at the capital raising and high level positions but more analyst level. Is that a really bad look on a resume or would a company be understanding you specifically weren’t acting in ill intention?
Likely not a major issue as long as you can explain your situation and provide a good story.
It probably doesn't hurt too much but also doesn't help a lot either. Switch to a better shop as soon as possible to develop a better resume.
Nobody would think of you having ill intent, but if I had an analyst resume come across my desk I’d discount all the experience at that shop as most have simple, unsound underwriting practices and have no idea how operations actually work. Your time is better spent working elsewhere - I get that there’s deal flow at these shops, but you’d build up a lot of habits that your next employer would need to break.
If you were caught in one of these positions as an analyst, and short of witnessing straight up illegal activity, do you expect people to walk away without another role lined up?
I am relatively new to the industry and I often disagree with particulars around underwriting. A little less cap ex here, slightly aggressive underwriting from an exit perspective... to paint with a broad brush like this seems uncalled for. I am the new guy - I may have different opinions about underwriting, but will defer in my role to the guys with gray hair.
Not in one of these shops, but I also wouldn't hold it against an analyst if the MD told them to underwrite a 4 cap purchase at a 3 cap exit.
They appear to have defaulted on a loan for "Rise Parkside" at maturity this month. They bought it in 2021 at the time giving the seller 3X equity multiple and 73% IRR in18 months. They've asked for more time but I guess we'll see what the lender does.
HGI is a lender that isn't afraid to take back a property versus the Ready Capitals and MF1s of the world, so not surprising here. I'm really hoping they play hardball because I'm tired of hearing Rise48 lie about not losing a dollar of investor capital.
Seems like a great investment though, asking rents have been flat since they acquired the property in October 2021. I can't imagine why a 85% LTV bridge loan isn't working out for them. I think they're mistaking a 2 for a 4 in that debt number - I believe it's $46m.
You're probably right about the debt amount. This is from Rise48 website on this property. Since we know they overcapitalize and charge a lot of fees 46 seems more likely than 26:
Where are you getting 85%? Doesnt it literally say $75k a door debt on $160k a door total purchase price right above you..? 1.09x dscr isn’t horrible either, what’s missing here
Looks like the motel from "No Country for Old Men" with a fresh coat of paint. 3x 78% IRR for seller in 18 months. Good god.
If you don't know who the sucker at the card table is... it's you.
I can confirm that they got the 3-month extension. I would also be shocked if they were able to refi with anything another than another bridge loan.
I'd peg NOI in the low $3M range, which would get you mid-high $30M on a 1.25x DSCR loan off the 5-yr treasury. Maybe a rate buy down + pref gets them there, but good luck!
Their deals are 3 year interest only w/ rate cap + 2 rate lock extensions they can buy in year 4 and 5.
Lovely sale comp just hit the market in the Deer Valley / North PHX corridor - 232 units / 72' vintage that was bought in Aug 21' for $157k/unit just resold for $121k/unit last week. Rise has two similar vintage deals (80' - 84') within a one mile radius that they picked up in Dec 21' - Jun 22' for $235k - $260k/unit.
Only a matter of time folks...
But those likely don't have three tone exterior paint 🎨 scheme
Fuck, they probably didn't add new signage either. Idiots!
Most of their portfolio was acquired over 4Q2021 to 2Q2022 so it should be beginning. They’ve managed negative cashflow with GP contributions from the crazy high acq fees they’re still charging but there’s no way around the amount of capital they’ve lost. They tried pref equity and couldn’t find any takers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a REIT announcement soon but I hope not. These guys made Tides look like credible fiduciaries.
Can you elaborate on what you mean by REIT announcement? What would be the advantage/disadvantage? What questions would you ask of a syndicator if they were to go down this route? One item I think to ask based on this thread is DSCR against current value.
Was this the deal Tower16 sold?
Yeah - any color on that to your knowledge that would make it an outlier other than 70s vintage? Average unit size seemed reasonable - I think one of the Rise comps I referenced has ~ 80% 1-br units averaging 500 square feet.
The bad thing is they are still raising money from people that don't understand how much money they are going to lose.
It is sad to see. I don't think their investors can afford the losses and they have already lost a lot of people's retirements and are not being honest about their underwater real estate.
These groups that keep posting about the passive benefits of multifamily while they are broke and trying to grift fees from uneducated investors is terrible.
This is just a small selection of their CLO deals in Phoenix that show publicly available data. With an average DSCR of under 50% on interest only, how much retirement money have these deals lost? Have the investors been notified of their impaired investments? Are they debt lenders acting in their investors best interest and taking the assets and going after the guaranties? Are investors in their future deals being notified about the impending loss of other real estate assets?
You could do this for almost any of these shops that took a course about how to make your fortune on the backs of others' retirements and then became a real estate guru with 0 experience or market understanding.
Loan Name Sponsor Current DSCR Address City Units Built Lender Origination Date Current Loan Balance GC Square Rise 48 0.30 3535 West Camelback Road Phoenix 165 1975 Bridge Investment Group 03/31/2022 $23,847,053 Cascada Del Sol Rise 48 0.13 1502 West Glendale Ave Phoenix 166 1974 Bridge Investment Group 06/22/2021 $22,135,826 Brookside Apartments Rise 48 0.33 6131 West Thomas Road Phoenix 204 1984 Bridge Investment Group 07/29/2021 $33,325,432 La Cresenta Rise 48 1.01 1050 South Stanley Place and 1025 East Orange Street Tempe 197 1963 Ready Capital 10/14/2021 $34,918,431 Solano Vista Rise 48 0.57 7102 N 43rd Ave Glendale 352 1974 HGI 10/07/2021 $26,369,961 Portola West Valley Rise 48 0.74 1801 N 83rd Ave Phoenix 224 1986 MFI 01/12/2022 $22,250,000 Marble Creek Apartments Rise 48 0.25 5601 W Mcdowell Rd Phoenix 244 1985 Ready Capital 11/18/2021 $48,890,241 Encore 202 and 59 Roosevelt Rise 48 0.60 5775 West Roosevelt Street Phoenix 376 1986 Rialto 07/20/2022 $81,375,000 Rise on Country Club Rise 48 1803 North Country Club Drive Mesa 271 1979 Bridge Investment Group 03/15/2022 $27,516,000 Total/Average 0.49 2,199 1978 $320,627,944On top of that, none of the real estate economist out there are talking about this massive issue. They have good analysis on some stuff but pay 0 attention to this massive problem in the B & C space. These issues don't come up on earnings calls. They don't show up on investor disclosures. People are pretending like this problem doesn't exist.
Do you have columns for purchase price & debt per unit on these?
Assuming you're pulling this from Trepp?
The rescue fund seems to be official now. $50k Minimum investment.
Curious what fees look like.
They're using capital raisers for this too so likely paying them money on top of the 18%. But I guess when you're desperate for a tiny bit more runway and institutional capital is laughing at you ...
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/deal-launch-webinar-rise-preferred-equity-…
I attended one of the presentations. No fees being charged by sponsor. There are attorney fees, lender fees, and closing cost fees.
anyone else thing that is expensive money? 18% a year... that is 4-5% above market pref no?
You're thinking of a debt fund underwritten by someone who hopes to get their money and interest back. Not a desperation play by a troubled operator parts of whose portfolio is about to collapse. Just like credit cards, the higher the chance of default (I would say extremely high here), the higher the rate. I still wouldn't give them money despite the high possible return if things magically turn around.
Had a TS from one of the larger pref providers come across my desk a month ago at ~14%.
Then again, the borrower in that case was a reasonably well respected institution. Aka not Rise.
Do they have to disclose where the money is going and that their initial investors are being crammed down?
The crazy thing is is that some of their investors might do this deal.
Existing investors were informed how much capital required to keep their common equity at 100% of initial investment. They disclosed the money is going to pay down debt, purchase interet rate caps, pay back loans they made to the properties, everything you all have assumed or stated ahead of time.
Recommendation to LPs: Vote to remove Rise48 as general partner. Force them to leave the GP contributions in the investments and raise preferred equity on top of existing capital in order to refinance into long term agency loans.
If Rise48 is telling you that the lenders are forcing them to pay themselves back with preferred equity proceeds, they are 100% lying to you.
This is actually sound advice, but ...
Point noted. We will see if more investors find their way to this thread.
Never gonna happen due to the collective action problem and how much power they are likely to have in their operating agreements.
Why aren’t news sources picking up on this? Their investors need to be warned!
Wall Street Journal
Real Deal
Bisnow
Financial Times
Wouldn't be surprised if it shows up on The Real Deal sometime soon.
They are pitching great returns on an investment that has no value and no cash flow or anticipated cash flow to pay the returns.
To ask a question - is there any way most of their investors don’t know how bad things are going? AFAIK they have been paying distributions on most deals due to over funding equity at close and buying deep in the money caps. Instead of capital calls they have been doing GP members loans and now a pref raise. I think the majority of their investors might be thinking that their investments are fine because they are still getting their 5% “CoC” distributions and haven’t been capital called.
May be true for properties purchased more recently but they didn’t start that strategy until ~2023. Everything prior, so everything in AZ, has stopped distributions and is negative cashflow between -1% and -6% annually.
Even with the 2023 and beyond strategy, it’s only a matter of time investors realize they’ve merely structured a short term mirage. They’ll be one of the few groups losing capital on 2023 and 2024 purchases.
Got it. Do you know when they paused distributions?
I was able to get my hands on some of their presentation material - it was about as detailed & defensible as one would expect.
Here are some of my favorite snippets:
Justification on the pref raise - please continue to use group think like this to try and justify your position
Alleged "benefits of the fund" - nothing says Rise 48 like a forward statement claiming (high probability of predictable outcome [losses])
This might be my favorite slide of them all - please ignore the 5 years of preceding oversupply, we are timing this shit perfectly
Where do I send my money?
I saw the deck as well. I really hope they don’t get the chance to light this 38 million pref raise on fire as they pay themselves back. There should be news outlets covering this to help raise awareness to these distressed assets and operator.
So what's the actual plan here? They can't possibly pay this money back in two years (based on those DSCRs posted above it seems unlikely they'll be able to pay the monthly interest), just another raise of some sort?
The plan in this instance appears to be to buy DEEP in the money rate caps and magically create a new way for investors to pay themselves their "preferred return". The deck calls for ~ $12M in new 2-yr rate caps, and "post modification" unpaid principal balance on the senior debt is ~ $207M. If you look at Chatham's rate cap calculator, they're likely buying a 1.00% - 1.50% strike 2-yr cap - so, artificially generating free cash flow by prepaying a fuck ton of interest up front.
Plans in 2027 would be two run it back a 3rd time? Who the fuck knows.
I genuinely want to meet someone that understands anything on this slide and is also dumb enough to believe it.
They just posted publicly on LinkedIn about a new webinar next week for a pref equity fund for a 6-pack in PHX. The strategic pivot to publicly marketing a capital call is potentially very telling for a group that has fiercely defended their brand and reputation. So what do we think think, team? The fundraising with existing investors for the initial 7-pack went great, and so the gloves are off and these are 6 new properties? Or the fundraising for the initial 7-pack did NOT go well, and they carved out one asset and are opening up the fund to anyone interested?
This is the same raise. Their webinar with the feeder fund was for a 6-pack, so the original 7-pack material was just preliminary / draft.
Not a ZH / R48 defender, just want to keep the conversation honest.
These are all 2021 acquisitions with extend and pretend ending. The 2022 acquisitions will likely have something similar in the next year as those deals run out of runway.
Same properties, just looking for a less sophisticated group of suckers (Ie. Their own investors now).
is anyone here going to listen to their live webinar on Feb 25th to report back on the pref fund that everyone is talking about?
Here's the webinar they already had with a capital raiser. No mention of distress, common equity becoming worthless, etc. Just a great opportunity:
https://41098383.hs-sites.com/share/hubspotvideo/186052566911?utm_sourc…
Not just no mention of distress but claiming that this is a "very secure" investment and all properties are "performing very well". lol
Is there any legal requirement for them to disclose that or is it buyer beware?
I don't work in RE but am at a FO and have listened to 10 mins of this. I have no clue how anyone with an IQ above 75 would touch this shit...Equating a shitty apartment complex to private equity making them sound equal is downright lying...
This was a fun exercise.
Raising $27 mm in pref equity (because the other 100 pref providers passed!) with post-mod UPB at $170 mm. Total pref+upb = $197 mm. Year 1 NOI is $11,808,000. Using a generous 6% cap rate on their generous NOI is a $196,800,000 valuation. Common equity is gone and the cap stack is 100% of value with the UPB at 86%.
Luckily they get their working capital loans back . I guess I could point out it would have been cheaper to buy a 5-year SOFR strike at 0.25% during ZIRP for pennies on the dollar but I digress.
I would love to dig into the actual financials just because I like a good train wreck. Just giving them the benefit of the NOI doubt, to refinance with agencies at 1.25x and 35 year amortization they would the following rates:
Year 1 = 3.25% rate
Year 2 = 4.00% rate
Exit = 4.50% rate
Which makes this a sale. Their exit assumes a 4.93% exit cap rate. Their cost basis is likely close to $250 mm. a 5.75% cap rate on their exit NOI makes this break even which I think is the rosiest of scenarios anyone can hope for in 24 months.
What is the true value of a 1969-1985 MF asset that has been FULLY renovated? These assets have virtually no bid in the marketplace today. Maybe we need a new marketing term. Core Plus Workforce Housing? Has a catchy ring to it!
Considering their projected NOIs assume that they can outgrow the 10%+ recurring concessions that they're still offering today as well as rent growth, it's almost guaranteed at least some but probably all of this preferred equity will be wiped out as well. I doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize this preferred equity fund is needed to fund the first 5 deals in the portfolio that began the 2021-2022 buying spree. Too bad there are 23 more transactions that followed at even lower cap rates, higher prices, and worse financing. They're going to need a ton more dumb money. Cue Tyson Cobb and his unsuspecting orthopedic friends.
They're not offering 18% because anyone thinks this is safe. Obviously a desperation move for dumb money. Even Ashcroft is only offering 12% on their debt fund and that will likely also lose value. I think the main point of this and other pref equity offerings is to de risk the principals. Interestingly, he emphasized the principals are "Investing in this fund in addition to our current stake in the equity" but didn't mention they're netting $10 million or so paying themselves back the loans they had previously extended from this raise.
I audibly laughed at "Core+ Workforce Housing." That's a one-liner that tells me you actually work in PERE. I could absolutely see this in a pitch deck from a more shrewd operator.
Rise48 continues to crash and burn with capital calls on 2 more properties. Let's see how much new equity they're able to take down along the way with their burning portfolio. This marks 8 capital calls on the 15 properties they acquired between 6/21 and 3/22. I'm sure the remaining 7 properties are not far behind or they've likely sent out similar capital calls on those properties already.
https://vimeo.com/1064481904/6d49fbcabc?share=copy&utm_medium=email&_hs…
Correct me if I’m wrong but in theory this could work for them in the slim chance that 80’s vintage multi in Arizona starts trading at a 3% cap again (black swan event scenario). Other than that, how will the common equity holders be looking 2 years down the road in you opinion? 100% wiped? 50% wiped? Also, do you think this pref equity will actually realize the 15% IRR he’s talking about or is this just more wishful thinking?
We all know the answer to this. Common equity is 100% wiped and the Rise48 raised preferred equity will be wiped as well. The capital call is strictly being used to purchase an additional 2 year interest rate cap on properties that are otherwise not be able to service the debt without the rate cap. If the properties can't service the debt as is, there is zero chance they will be able to service the debt + preferred equity charging 15%. Nothing they're doing is in the best interest of their investors at this point - they're simply on life support and trying to stay alive so they can purchase more properties.
IMO this is a reputation-preservation maneuver. The initial distributions of the pref equity return are likely being funded by the pref equity investors' own dollars. Between those distributions and debt service, they will likely run out of funds to keep paying both in due order. They're in a race against the clock to maintain a enough of a decent reputation among the lay investor in order to keep doing new deals and build up a fee-based war chest to keep afloat the 20+ "bad" deals in their portfolio. Eventually the scheme will run out of gas and in the meantime they're only digging the hole deeper, so that when the fall comes, it will be that much more painful.
Jesus christ that video was a rough watch. His eyes are so dead, he knows he's just ripping people off and the light has clearly gone out out of his life.
I don't know. "Ripping people off" seems a little harsh. He's simply giving greedy people the outlet they were looking for to throw their money away.
No one thinks Caesar's Palace is "ripping people off" when they go lose their paycheck at the slot machines.
Do you have a link to the full conference call that would have been last Wednesday, or are you just referring to the 2 minute video above?
Rise48 is out with their latest capital call on Rise Estrella... I think that makes 6? 7? Only 15 more to go. But first time that I've heard this structure - The new capital will be preferred equity in priority position (normal) but for those that participate, they will also move their original capital investment up to be in priority position alongside the new capital and over those that do not participate. There's been a long debate of unethical vs. illegal, but I cannot see how that extorsion to get existing investors to contribute additional dollars is legal.
Does anyone have the capital call video? It would be a good companion to this video saying Estrella doing great:
https://vimeo.com/1072665480/5f1140a7c3
I don't see any other option other than LPs to sue and get this property into receivership or a GP swap at this point. The tactic of moving up initial equity for those that participate vs. those that don't is straight financial extorsion.
Your honor, you see, we did not PLAN on losing all of this capital. Should we have realized it would happen as the whole world was telling us? Sure! But it wasn’t our PLAN.
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