CS IBD is kill

"UBS has said it will continue with Credit Suisse’s plans to shrink its investment bank, so that the combined entity will make up no more than a third of the merged group, two of the people said."

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/5746165a-3a0c-42c7-9a2e-cb7cf5f33f46

95 Comments
 

Yeah thats a fucking huge reduction if true. Obviously, going to wait and see how it actually shakes out but it makes sense conceptually considering how UBS has been trying to reduce its IB presence and them likely not wanting to do this deal in the first place

 

The news also mentioned that UBS would want to reassess the spin-off case of CSFB. Does this mean that the spin-off of CFFB could still happen and might be a possibility to avoid significant cutting of IBD?

 

Am I smoking something or does that make zero sense? Why not spin it out? Winding down = you're just admitting defeat and burning the revenue source. Spin out a combo UBS/CS pure IB and it could compete. If you don't want to own that then fine, sell your shares in CSFB. 

not at all an interested party here I just don't understand the rationale 

 

An earlier report said this is one of the sticking points of the whole negotiation. You can just imagine Michael Klein thinking he'll get his unlimited flexibility to start a new investment bank (in the ashes of Credit Suisse) into a near independent powerhouse well-capitalized but without the traditional capital constraints of a typical large bank. And, here, this merger is now blowing up on him as UBS is required to take prudent investments and not give a member of their board of director's a blank check to buy their own investment bank and turn it in to a new franchise.

 

It's hard to say Klein miscalculated. He was on the board of CS and somehow convinced that same board to buy his investment bank, merge it into one of the largest IB's in the world with him as its leader and give him a massive equity comp package. Haven't heard anyone anywhere saying they predicted this banking crisis and merger wasn't complete (looks like it may fall apart under UBS, will have to see in next few days), so Klein hasn't really lost anything except maybe the opportunity of a lifetime for which he somehow talked himself into against incredible conflict of interest odds. 

 

To me, it looks like Klein wasted 6+ months of CS time by insisting he become CEO and forcing them to buy his boutique in a spin off. Management's fault for going along with his plan and not considering alternatives

 

Yeah I get that. But theoretically wouldn't the other banks get extra deals that CS would've normally got and therefore require more headcount, so the overall jobs in the market stays equal? Or does it not work like that? Obviously there is no guarantee they manage to get those new jobs. 

I'm just thinking in terms of the overall lateral hiring market which is already pretty dead

 

Anyone have advice for incomings? When will we know if we still have offers?

 

They said combined IBD will be 25% of the groups risk weighted assets, not that they would cut IBD down to 25% of its current size. Stop spreading misinformation. CS IB is already only 30% of the CS's RWAs.

 

CS and UBS clearly don't have good communication. CS press release said the expect the merger to close by end of year. UBS slide presentation said Q2'2023. Anyone have any idea what UBS means by 'strategic banking will be retained' while other IB businesses put in a bad bank unit to wind down? What is strategic banking?

 

They effectively purchased a leading global WM/ AM firm and a Swiss retail bank for $8bn. Idk what multiples are in the space but sounds cheap given the legg mason and Eaton Vance deals a few years ago. 
 

They will wind down the IB by selling what they can and shutting down the rest I.e bear the severance costs etc. ($5bn limit, the rest borne by the Swiss Govt). 3bn equity + 5bn expense cap = 8bn

 

Idk where you're getting this from. If they 'sell what they can' it would just delay the merger / increase expenses which it seems like is the opposite of what they want to do. I think they're keeping NY advisory / M Klein if they'll stay but getting rid of rest of IB by largely firing everyone

 

Spoke with some third parties who CS Heads have called trying to leave and sounds like UBS will either 'honor' our offers for reputations sake or fire us all

 

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