April 2 2025, Trump just announced the tariffs and economy aint looking too great. Lotta of my friends and I stressed and anxious about how it will impact return offer rates / full time recruiting in the fall of 2025. Looking to hear others 2 cents on this
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Based on the most helpful WSO content, return offer rates for summer analysts and associates are highly influenced by the state of the economy, firm performance, and hiring needs. Historically, during economic downturns or periods of uncertainty, return offer rates tend to decrease as banks tighten hiring to manage costs. For example:
Recession Impact: In past recessions, return offer rates have dropped significantly. For instance, during challenging times, some banks have extended offers to as low as 40% of interns, compared to 80-90% in strong economic years.
Overhiring Concerns: If banks overhired for the summer 2025 class, this could further pressure return offer rates, as seen in previous years like 2022 when overhiring led to reduced offers.
Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty: With the recent announcement of tariffs and a shaky economic outlook, banks may adopt a more conservative approach to hiring. This could mean fewer return offers and a more competitive full-time recruiting process in fall 2025.
Advice for Standing Out: To improve your chances of securing a return offer, focus on delivering high-quality work, building strong relationships with your team, and demonstrating adaptability and resilience in uncertain times. These traits have historically helped interns stand out, even in tough markets.
While the exact return offer rates for summer 2025 are uncertain, preparing for a competitive environment and exploring backup options for full-time recruiting will be crucial.
Sources: Advice for summer and return offer rate?, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investment-banking/will-2020-recruiting-ft-and-sa-be-accelerated-or-be-more-relaxed?customgpt=1, IB Summer Associate Return Offer Rates?, Return Offer Rates During a Reccession, IB Full Time Recruiting (Summer 2023 Start)
Would not worry about it if you are heading to EBs/GS/MS. Good reason to be concerned if you are heading to JPM or JEFF like banks with records of cutting summer interns when the economy seems to be going down.
What about MMs
They tend to cut summer interns
MS cut a lot of interns in 2023 and the economy was argueably better at that point
MS is exactly the bank I'd be most worried about... I remember a few years ago they gave nobody returns because a bunch of MS interns frantically reached out. They also recently fired a bunch of people.
Untrue about Jef as well, they had one year with really low rates when they were switching staffing models, but usually have pretty good return rates even if bad economy. Also Jef is one of the firms that always hires laterals and usually hires more for FT, would not worry if at Jef per se.
Would also be worried if at UBS and BoFA since both have had a lot of layoffs in past year (UBS in a more continuous process and BoFA all in basically one fall swoop). Citi prob isn't that great either, but they usually over hire interns anyways and is still technically restructuring. Would be semi-confident at Barclays or DB, seems like those franchises are relatively more focused on growing US IB atm at least in the sense of hiring and not firing.
Agree with above commenter on GS, they almost always give everyone that deserves it a return, pretty high return rates. From what I've heard from kids that have recruited form my school, EVR is the same way as is Moelis, unsure on the others.
DB, BofA, Barclays, and Citi generally had +70%, no? MS is weird, but thought had ok return, anecdotical though. Jeff have weird variation accross offices, and yeah, UBS seems to be fucked other than sponsor/levfin
Bump
Disagree with the comment that would be worried if you’re at Citi - during COVID, Citi was first/one of the first banks to announce all interns will automatically get a return. Also seems like most ppl at Citi get returns unless they rly mess up
Deleted
Can second this. Communicated to me multiple times that returns are "yours to lose"
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as well with asian banks, HSBC, Mizuho, etc
Following
following
It’s over
I thought bofa would be better historically...What about their regional offices?
How about for UK Banks? How would return offer percentage change due to these new changes by the USA?
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Should I be worried about my 2026 offer?
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