Used my entire Bonus to bring my average down on TQQQ let's gooo! HUGE Equities melt-up coming...

It's that time of the year for analysts. Bonus hit the account and used the whole amount to buy another thousand or so shares.

Wanted to splurge a bit elsewhere but getting shares for this cheap was too big to pass up on and eased some of the stress I was feeling earlier with such a high avg. price per share previously. Rather live frugally for a bit longer and get that huge payout to come...

Know a lot of people got in pretty high earlier in the year so are you all buying in once bonuses hit? Mind sharing your share price averages? Know there's been some pretty nasty sentiment towards TQQQ on this forum but this has only made my convictions even stronger. The sentiment I love to see!

Huge melt-up will be coming soon that will take indexes beyond ATHs. This will follow as yields have already topped and the bond market has done the tightening for the fed itself. Inflation has peaked this cycle as well. A recessionary backdrop will only further force Powell's hand to pivot. 75bps hike is baked into the cake for July and hikes will be paused in the September meeting. Market will begin to make it's melt up move well before that as the easing narrative takes form and a reversal of sentiment at levels not seen since 2008 is undone.

A lot of supposed market and economic forecaster's are on this forum but their emotions are harming them. Peak pessimism is what they are experiencing and they will miss the moves that are soon to come. Screenshot, save, bookmark, whatever you want to this post so you can come back and thank me! 

Comments (73)

  • Intern in IB - Gen
Jul 2, 2022 - 11:19pm

My average is 41 but I also gave up averaging down anymore with the way the market is going. I'm just tryna build cash from my internship and wait for the VIX to go above 50. Once that happens, I'll ape in like a motherfucker. This slow descent isn't worth it enough for me to waste any more money averaging down. I want to see ultimate chaos and fear before dumping a huge block of money in. Those who did that when TQQQ got to as low as 8 during the COVID crash could've 10x'd their money when TQQQ was 91 during the November 2021 peak. 

  • Prospect in IB-M&A
Jul 3, 2022 - 12:05am

I can't be the only one on this forum still incredibly bearish for the next few months. We've so far only seen multiple compression; analysts have been painfully slow to lower price targets and earnings estimates. With inbound pain for consumers, I can't see how corporate earnings will be very strong in the next two quarters.

Obviously I could be completely wrong and the market might shoot up from here, but I'm wary.

  • Intern in IB-M&A
Aug 15, 2022 - 6:26pm

TQQQ should be something you hold long enough that the next few months mean nothing. Anyone buying it hoping to cash out that fast is just gambling.

Most Helpful
  • VP in PE - LBOs
Jul 4, 2022 - 6:31pm

70% discount… I guess you'd bought the 78% "discount" after the dot com bubble crash.

you fail to account for the fact that tech stocks were deep in bubble territory years. 70% down from bubble peak =/= 70% discount.

your rationale on fed/inflation/rates might be right, but we are in for a few Qs of depressed earnings. Consumers are not taking price increases as well anymore. In Q1 we still had all time high earnings in many companies. Q2 is going to be the turning point. The FED not raising 75bps each month doesn't make up for that. What would happen if they raised 50bps in the next meeting? Market would go up maybe 3-5%. That doesn't make up for Qs of depressed earnings.

moreover, the FED may slow the tightening, but they are not going to ease like at pre pandemic levels. They have been very harmed by the transitory stuff and they don't want to get caught in the same spot again.

and on another note, leverage is  higher than pre-covid, while defaults are at all time lows. This, combined with rising rates and a recession, can lead to a pretty nasty scenario.

the downside is bigger than the upside in the short/mid term. Best case, we dont get a recession, and we have slow tightening. What do you think would happen? Would investors flock again to companies with inviable business models and value them at multiples of their revenue? No. Maybe in 5 or 10 years it will happen again, but investors ("investors") will have the trauma of losing +30% of their portfolios as too recent. They won't jump for the next get rich quick thing, they will be cautious for a bit. Then, it will happen all over again, but in a fee years, not in the next months.

And I am not saying there is no value in the index or anything. There are amazing companies there. But multiples were stupidly high (and we are still above averages lol) and there are  shitty, overvalued companies mixed up with the high quality stuff.

Controversial
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jul 4, 2022 - 7:49pm

I'm going to be respectful and just say watch & learn how this works. There is A LOT wrong in the points you brought up unfortunately and I would have thought you know better.

You're too focused on things that have already been discounted by markets and are missing that FED tightening has been one of the largest headwinds in the market for over a year now. Everyone is on one side of the boat. Go look at the probability distributions for rates. 95%+ are not pricing in a pause in September. That's a lot of liquidity. It's not about investors needing to flock to unicorn tech names again for the melt up to occur. "Easing" isn't exclusive to cutting rates.

The level of QT is also a fraction of the $9T that was already added to the Fed's balance sheet from COVID. Melt-up to follow in the next 6-12 months. Screenshot this then watch & learn.

Jul 4, 2022 - 4:41pm
Kevin25, what's your opinion? Comment below:

tqqq is for people who are trying to time the market, which is what you probably learned in your finance classes you shouldn't do. just get qqq or better vti (cause tech is already overrepresented in total market etfs).

  • Investment Analyst in HF - Other
Jul 4, 2022 - 9:15pm

Didn't put a cent of my covid bonuses into the market, nothing made sense, the fed and fiscal policies significantly oversupported markets to the point theyve lost credibility. Plus, seeing hometown heroes from high school posting financial advice and saying investing was "so easy" gave me all the information needed. Haven't seen them post in awhile, I wonder why...


That being said, I just took both those pmts and sent them to invest somewhere it would be hedged. I'd rather have limits on alpha & have an aggregate lower beta than be long only right now. Keeping it in a savings account loses me money, so felt like it was a potentially opportun time to place hedged bets. Think the rest of this year will set the tone, and there's a lot of upcoming events that could shape global performance. There was most definitely some overselling in certain companies and theres a lot of dry powder, but there's still a lot of macro balls in the air that can go either way this summer and influence markets up and through the HY maturity wall in 2029. Things are so connected these days, a change in Japan's monetary policies could rip US markets. Not to mention mid-term elections and student debt payments resuming. That's just a few things in a laundry list to watch.

More importantly, the average trader/banker, and the average US consumer, have not been around for this type of inflationary environment. It's difficult to guess consumer behavior here when the closest comparison can be considered a totally different world. Tough to know where those prints are going 

  • VP in IB - Gen
Jul 5, 2022 - 10:24am

Posts like this are exactly why we needed a massive correction.  'Yields can't go higher' except you know, for most of recorded history until 2008.  I actually happen to agree with you that you should just dump your entire bonus in the index at this point but that's because of a long-term view.  Dumping into a leveraged index is trying to time to market which is always difficult and it could see a significant drawdown before going back up but you'll then be starting at a much worse place.  Fine to buy high beta stuff but wouldn't put my entire bonus into it.  How's TQQQ doing today?

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jul 5, 2022 - 8:01pm

Yields have topped FOR THIS CYCLE. You aren't reading me fully. We will eventually have double digit rates again in the next inflationary cycle but that is not now. You have me construed to be someone hoping for some magic. when I understand this cycle clearly. A lot of hate from you and other older guys but you aren't even giving me a chance to let thing play out. It's been A DAY. This isn't a trading call. It's the end of a 40 year secular bull market. As for TQQQ today as you ask? Seemed to do just fine lol. This just shows you are too focused on the tape.

Jul 5, 2022 - 5:39pm
petight, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Actually, you're completely back to front on this. Using margin, when the market falls it hits your equity first. When the market rises, your equity to margin ratio does not reset, so you also miss out on positive compounding. In both a falling or rising market, margin will be outperformed by a similarly leveraged daily reset etf. It is only in a choppy sideways market that the leverage etf will underperform the similarly leveraged margin position.

Jul 5, 2022 - 12:19pm
BenBernyankin', what's your opinion? Comment below:

You guys really need to read into the TQQQ (or really any leveraged ETF) prospectus and learn about how volatility drag works...that 3x leverage isn't free and there's a very real possiblity of TQQQ underperforming QQQ if we rally depending on the market environment. The reason why TQQQ looked so sexy after COVID was because we literally 'v-recovered' and rallied to new highs as fast as it came down. Just go compare the charts of leveraged oil ETFs and compare it to a non-leveraged ETF or the futures. 

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jul 5, 2022 - 8:04pm

A lot of snark from this VP. Why don't you let the cycle play out and see who is ultimately right instead of hating? Give it several months and you will ask how I knew and I'll tell you one thing only: watch & learn

There is a reason you have been in banking for as long as you have during this great bull run the last several years and are still working...

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jul 5, 2022 - 8:10pm

Who are you talking about? So many of you have me misconstrued with some character for easy punches. "Stocks only go up"? I'm forecasting a global bust that will bring the S&P below 2K in the coming years if not sooner. There is just one more steep leg to this secular bull market and you along with many other as evidenced here are taking the consensus view and will miss out. You'll be screaming "it has more room to go!" at the top just like everyone else while I'll have sold my bags to you...

  • Associate 1 in RE - Comm
Jul 7, 2022 - 10:28am

Why not buy LEAPs on TQQQ? Lever it up or go home.

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jul 17, 2022 - 5:46pm

Wow you are definitely new to markets and how economic data releases work. The latest CPI release was for the month of JUNE. Of course it will show a lagging figure. The commodity rollover didn't begin until this month JULY. Just like the Fed, you have a clear misunderstanding of the leads and lags to policy. Btw, if you want to talk about things "aging well" (only because you brought it up, it's still too early) TQQQ is already up 10% from the time of this post. More than most on here get after a whole year's worth of regular returns...

Jul 17, 2022 - 7:17pm
FreeCashNo, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Sounds like you haven't had your sunday nap yet.  Thank you for explaining to me how economic reports work, I'm well aware that they are backwards-looking.  When the original post was made the most recent data was from May, and you claimed that it had peaked going off of that data.  You were proven wrong two weeks later.  It's ok.  As they say, economists have predicted 10 out of the last 5 recessions.  Also bragging about a 10% return on a 3x leveraged ETF in a volatile market where the underlying index regularly moves 3% in a day is a little embarrassing.  Feel free to MS me to cope as you did my first comment

Jul 29, 2022 - 12:13am
zxxxx, what's your opinion? Comment below:

LMFAO this random ass AN1 nailed the bottom while all the seniors in here got it wrong. Hope he's still around I wanna know what's next

Aug 15, 2022 - 4:01pm
buyout888, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Amazing how an entire group of finance "professionals" get this entirely wrong and this dipshit kid ends up being correct and getting a 50% return in a month while talking shit.

Love to see it

  • 2
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  • Associate 2 in PE - LBOs
Aug 15, 2022 - 4:52pm

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Aug 15, 2022 - 9:47pm

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