Used my entire Bonus to bring my average down on TQQQ let's gooo! HUGE Equities melt-up coming...
It's that time of the year for analysts. Bonus hit the account and used the whole amount to buy another thousand or so shares.
Wanted to splurge a bit elsewhere but getting shares for this cheap was too big to pass up on and eased some of the stress I was feeling earlier with such a high avg. price per share previously. Rather live frugally for a bit longer and get that huge payout to come...
Know a lot of people got in pretty high earlier in the year so are you all buying in once bonuses hit? Mind sharing your share price averages? Know there's been some pretty nasty sentiment towards TQQQ on this forum but this has only made my convictions even stronger. The sentiment I love to see!
Huge melt-up will be coming soon that will take indexes beyond ATHs. This will follow as yields have already topped and the bond market has done the tightening for the fed itself. Inflation has peaked this cycle as well. A recessionary backdrop will only further force Powell's hand to pivot. 75bps hike is baked into the cake for July and hikes will be paused in the September meeting. Market will begin to make it's melt up move well before that as the easing narrative takes form and a reversal of sentiment at levels not seen since 2008 is undone.
A lot of supposed market and economic forecaster's are on this forum but their emotions are harming them. Peak pessimism is what they are experiencing and they will miss the moves that are soon to come. Screenshot, save, bookmark, whatever you want to this post so you can come back and thank me!
My average is 41 but I also gave up averaging down anymore with the way the market is going. I'm just tryna build cash from my internship and wait for the VIX to go above 50. Once that happens, I'll ape in like a motherfucker. This slow descent isn't worth it enough for me to waste any more money averaging down. I want to see ultimate chaos and fear before dumping a huge block of money in. Those who did that when TQQQ got to as low as 8 during the COVID crash could've 10x'd their money when TQQQ was 91 during the November 2021 peak.
VIX won't be going above 50 and we'll be seeing 6000 in the S&P before we see 3000...
LMAO
I’m dumping a significant amount in at 20, averaging in thereafter, and another big chunk again if it hits 10
I can't be the only one on this forum still incredibly bearish for the next few months. We've so far only seen multiple compression; analysts have been painfully slow to lower price targets and earnings estimates. With inbound pain for consumers, I can't see how corporate earnings will be very strong in the next two quarters.
Obviously I could be completely wrong and the market might shoot up from here, but I'm wary.
Lol you're not the only one who's bearish at all. What you've described is the current consensus view. Investors have acted on their convictions in that regard. Melt-up ahead...
Big banks start reporting in ~10 days. Should give us a good idea on lending and consumer spending.
TQQQ should be something you hold long enough that the next few months mean nothing. Anyone buying it hoping to cash out that fast is just gambling.
LETS GOO!!!
Buy the dip.
isnt tqqq unironically a good move right now…
if it isnt please correct me im just a monkey
It really is. Even if it went down another 20% (which I do not forecast happening) you’re still buying shares today for 70%+ discount and will be FAR ahead of your VTI and chill peers. It’s funny how investor psychology can be so counterproductive...
70% discount… I guess you’d bought the 78% “discount” after the dot com bubble crash.
you fail to account for the fact that tech stocks were deep in bubble territory years. 70% down from bubble peak =/= 70% discount.
your rationale on fed/inflation/rates might be right, but we are in for a few Qs of depressed earnings. Consumers are not taking price increases as well anymore. In Q1 we still had all time high earnings in many companies. Q2 is going to be the turning point. The FED not raising 75bps each month doesn’t make up for that. What would happen if they raised 50bps in the next meeting? Market would go up maybe 3-5%. That doesn’t make up for Qs of depressed earnings.
moreover, the FED may slow the tightening, but they are not going to ease like at pre pandemic levels. They have been very harmed by the transitory stuff and they don’t want to get caught in the same spot again.
and on another note, leverage is higher than pre-covid, while defaults are at all time lows. This, combined with rising rates and a recession, can lead to a pretty nasty scenario.
the downside is bigger than the upside in the short/mid term. Best case, we dont get a recession, and we have slow tightening. What do you think would happen? Would investors flock again to companies with inviable business models and value them at multiples of their revenue? No. Maybe in 5 or 10 years it will happen again, but investors (“investors”) will have the trauma of losing +30% of their portfolios as too recent. They won’t jump for the next get rich quick thing, they will be cautious for a bit. Then, it will happen all over again, but in a fee years, not in the next months.
And I am not saying there is no value in the index or anything. There are amazing companies there. But multiples were stupidly high (and we are still above averages lol) and there are shitty, overvalued companies mixed up with the high quality stuff.
I’m going to be respectful and just say watch & learn how this works. There is A LOT wrong in the points you brought up unfortunately and I would have thought you know better.
You’re too focused on things that have already been discounted by markets and are missing that FED tightening has been one of the largest headwinds in the market for over a year now. Everyone is on one side of the boat. Go look at the probability distributions for rates. 95%+ are not pricing in a pause in September. That’s a lot of liquidity. It’s not about investors needing to flock to unicorn tech names again for the melt up to occur. “Easing” isn’t exclusive to cutting rates.
The level of QT is also a fraction of the $9T that was already added to the Fed’s balance sheet from COVID. Melt-up to follow in the next 6-12 months. Screenshot this then watch & learn.
tqqq is for people who are trying to time the market, which is what you probably learned in your finance classes you shouldn't do. just get qqq or better vti (cause tech is already overrepresented in total market etfs).
Watch & learn how this works.
You’re already getting a 70% discount in share...don’t be greedy...all it take is one day of reversal to have you and all other investors chase for shares...
just because it’s already down 70% doesn’t mean it can’t fall 70% again
If anyone wants a good 3x s and p ETF look at SPXL
Buy SPXL as well
You should be using UPRO not SPXL (expense ratios, liquidity and ProShares is better than Direxion) but yes agree 3x SPY is great as well I just prefer the extra beta exposure with QQQ
Bottom confirmed not in
It’s going to be funny coming back to this thread and seeing how right I was. Watch & learn. Melt-up ahead.
delet
You sure about that bud? Lol. For the record, I hold TQQQ. But I'm waiting for single digits before loading up on it again.
Didn't put a cent of my covid bonuses into the market, nothing made sense, the fed and fiscal policies significantly oversupported markets to the point theyve lost credibility. Plus, seeing hometown heroes from high school posting financial advice and saying investing was "so easy" gave me all the information needed. Haven't seen them post in awhile, I wonder why...
That being said, I just took both those pmts and sent them to invest somewhere it would be hedged. I'd rather have limits on alpha & have an aggregate lower beta than be long only right now. Keeping it in a savings account loses me money, so felt like it was a potentially opportun time to place hedged bets. Think the rest of this year will set the tone, and there's a lot of upcoming events that could shape global performance. There was most definitely some overselling in certain companies and theres a lot of dry powder, but there's still a lot of macro balls in the air that can go either way this summer and influence markets up and through the HY maturity wall in 2029. Things are so connected these days, a change in Japan's monetary policies could rip US markets. Not to mention mid-term elections and student debt payments resuming. That's just a few things in a laundry list to watch.
More importantly, the average trader/banker, and the average US consumer, have not been around for this type of inflationary environment. It's difficult to guess consumer behavior here when the closest comparison can be considered a totally different world. Tough to know where those prints are going
Any inverse-leverage ETFs you guys recommending? This guy convinced me to go short.
Triple levered???
SQQQ baby. Got in at 38 and now it's at 57. Still think it could easily gain another 100% in the next two to three months if the NASDAQ falls another 25-30%.
Posts like this are exactly why we needed a massive correction. 'Yields can't go higher' except you know, for most of recorded history until 2008. I actually happen to agree with you that you should just dump your entire bonus in the index at this point but that's because of a long-term view. Dumping into a leveraged index is trying to time to market which is always difficult and it could see a significant drawdown before going back up but you'll then be starting at a much worse place. Fine to buy high beta stuff but wouldn't put my entire bonus into it. How's TQQQ doing today?
Yields have topped FOR THIS CYCLE. You aren’t reading me fully. We will eventually have double digit rates again in the next inflationary cycle but that is not now. You have me construed to be someone hoping for some magic. when I understand this cycle clearly. A lot of hate from you and other older guys but you aren’t even giving me a chance to let thing play out. It’s been A DAY. This isn’t a trading call. It’s the end of a 40 year secular bull market. As for TQQQ today as you ask? Seemed to do just fine lol. This just shows you are too focused on the tape.
Leveraged etf’s should only be used for short-term. For long-term use margin.
Actually, you're completely back to front on this. Using margin, when the market falls it hits your equity first. When the market rises, your equity to margin ratio does not reset, so you also miss out on positive compounding. In both a falling or rising market, margin will be outperformed by a similarly leveraged daily reset etf. It is only in a choppy sideways market that the leverage etf will underperform the similarly leveraged margin position.
You guys really need to read into the TQQQ (or really any leveraged ETF) prospectus and learn about how volatility drag works...that 3x leverage isn't free and there's a very real possiblity of TQQQ underperforming QQQ if we rally depending on the market environment. The reason why TQQQ looked so sexy after COVID was because we literally 'v-recovered' and rallied to new highs as fast as it came down. Just go compare the charts of leveraged oil ETFs and compare it to a non-leveraged ETF or the futures.
Well I was going to go with 'dump everything into a highly-leveraged etf that tracks an index with a substantially higher beta than the broad market' because a banking analyst likely in their early 20s said so but you're also using a lot of fancy words so now I'm confused who to believe.
A lot of snark from this VP. Why don’t you let the cycle play out and see who is ultimately right instead of hating? Give it several months and you will ask how I knew and I’ll tell you one thing only: watch & learn
There is a reason you have been in banking for as long as you have during this great bull run the last several years and are still working...
I thought this downturn shut idiots like you up who kept on going "stocks only go up"
Who are you talking about? So many of you have me misconstrued with some character for easy punches. “Stocks only go up”? I’m forecasting a global bust that will bring the S&P below 2K in the coming years if not sooner. There is just one more steep leg to this secular bull market and you along with many other as evidenced here are taking the consensus view and will miss out. You’ll be screaming “it has more room to go!” at the top just like everyone else while I’ll have sold my bags to you...
You know, sometimes the consensus is actually right?
Not gonna end well for this 21-year old kid
Why not buy LEAPs on TQQQ? Lever it up or go home.
My 50k in SQQQ hopes you are wrong
SQQQ all the way baby
Typical retail investor getting on the trend after the meat of the move is already made. Watch & learn.
lol
Fuck yeah baby. Got in SQQQ at 38 and has paid off nice asf so far. Think SQQQ can get to 100 by the end of the year tbh
remember, unlike our hapless analyst OP here, that these are short-term instruments and tracking error increases with volatility....take the profit and enjoy imo
"Inflation has peaked"
This did not age well
Wow you are definitely new to markets and how economic data releases work. The latest CPI release was for the month of JUNE. Of course it will show a lagging figure. The commodity rollover didn't begin until this month JULY. Just like the Fed, you have a clear misunderstanding of the leads and lags to policy. Btw, if you want to talk about things "aging well" (only because you brought it up, it's still too early) TQQQ is already up 10% from the time of this post. More than most on here get after a whole year's worth of regular returns...
.
Buy leaps on tqqq you cunt
Looks like this guy was right?
Like I said, they will watch & learn. Sentiment is an amazing thing. I expect a pullback very soon to cool things off a bit. It's not necessary but likely since there are some gaps to fill. Either way, I nailed the bottom...
LOL
LMFAO this random ass AN1 nailed the bottom while all the seniors in here got it wrong. Hope he's still around I wanna know what's next
You sure about that? SQQQ time baby
Are you all watching & learning? :)
Amazing how an entire group of finance "professionals" get this entirely wrong and this dipshit kid ends up being correct and getting a 50% return in a month while talking shit.
Love to see it
Bought a scratch card yesterday and won $20k even though my economics professor at HSW told me it was irrational and had negative expected EV. I guess that makes me smarter than him and invalidates his entire academic field.
Ah yes, equating literal lottery tickets to me projecting the direction of the S&P 500...that makes sense...clearly you aren’t watching & learning.
Only get a return when you sell
Sorry, what was that return again? Just checking because it looks like TQQQ has dropped 29% since your comment. Markets go up and down, and in the long term go up. Everyone should just put their money in and forget about trying to flex calling a short-term direction.
bumping this for laughs. wonder how this guy is feeling rn?
tbf looking at the TQQQ price chart on google he's probably around breaking even atm
to be fair, do you make a post on WSO calling for a 'melt up' and tell people to watch and learn just to break even? not to mention, he said he was averaging down his cost of TQQQ meaning his overall position is likely at a substantial loss.
What are you talking about? My entry here was around $23 a share. I cut my position 4250 (use SPX levels for positioning) and reloaded my position with MORE shares yesterday for the next leg up to 4600 and beyond. Did you ignore all my comments below about pullbacks along the way? Or just another hater who missed out. Look at the sentiment in here when I posted this...they WERE ALL WRONG and I'm unbelievably up right now on this re-load in terms of share count now.
Highly doubt you’re up. Post your cost basis screen shot
Lmao
Bumping this for shits and giggles
Someone go do a mental health check on young Cramer here
lol this thread is going to keep getting bumped as the markets are volatile
as a Europoor I am just glad that my investments are in USD
I’m just continuing to average every month into $VTI (maybe some $EFA+$EEM soon). If $VTI hits 14-15 P/E, I’m lump summing.
You know what they say
Those who pick bottoms get brown fingers
#neverforget
Still here kicking it and adding more shares on every paystub. Not sure why so many of you seniors get satisfaction from watching young guys struggle but I'll make it and then we can see who has the last laugh :) No greatness ever came from things being easy and I have no intention of ending up like you :)
Because young guys these days are terrible at their jobs after years of Zoom college and online internships. New hires and recruits are getting worse, including myself
“Watch and learn”
- Analyst 1
famous last words
I rather die on my feet than live a life as just another gerbil on my knees. I fear nothing but never taking leap in the first place.
Holy hell this thread lol.
@RemindMeOfThis 6 months
Should we make a WSO inverse ETF of your trading decisions?
Smart strategy. TQQQ is already up 2.16% YTD. This is after 4 trading days and there are 252 trading days in a year, which implies that TQQQ will be up 284% by year-end. LFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bump, OP update
I mean if he did this he is up 100% since July 2022.
I should’ve listened to OP
Thank you to all the losers and haters! Thank you to the supporters who listened and hopefully you made some decent bread. Another great year in the books more than doubling the net worth. Planning to do it again this year if not more gains but with a twist in timing...stay tuned
Before the haters come back, I've taken profits here and will re-enter later for lower (yes watch & learn how this works as I said above it's all timing). Yes I'm just a kid few years out of school sure but there are people in this thread who have done this for decades and clearly didn't get it. If I can send any message across to younger guys who aren't so brainwashed...if you want to time markets please tune out the macro headlines and noise AND PAY ATTENTION TO INVESTOR FLOWS AND POSITIONING...
👑
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