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Brexit Wins - What You Need To Know

etx's picture
Rank: Senior Gorilla | banana points 788

After months of campaigning, one side leaves distressed, the other ecstatic. The results show 52% voted to leave the EU versus 48% that voted for Britain to stay within the EU. That's 11,855,663 votes for Remain and 12,698,977 votes for Leave.

The goal is to unwind Britain's 43-year membership of the bloc, disentangle and sever the legacy of shared sovereignty, and then re-shape the biggest single market on earth. According to EU officials, there are a million questions, with minimal answers.

For starters, global markets are in chaos. At the time of writing, the GBP is getting absolutely crushed against the USD and Yen, S&P 500 is down 91 points, FTSE futures down almost 9%, US treasury bonds down 15%.

Update: David Cameron resigns as Prime Minister

Lawyers in Whitehall and Brussels see two distinct tracks. The first is under Article 50 of the EU treaties -- the so-called "exit clause" -- which lays down a two-year renewable deadline for a country to leave.

A second track makes arrangements for future relations, from trade to co-operation on security or law enforcement. This is a more complex negotiation and, once agreed, harder to ratify. It requires unanimity and approval by more than 30 European, national and regional parliaments, possibly after national referendums.

More shall come. What does the WSO community think?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f0c4f432-371d-11e6-9a05-...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/...

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Comments (290)

Jun 24, 2016

Holy shit

"A modest man, with much to be modest about"

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Jun 28, 2016

What do you see happening in the foreseeable future?

Jun 24, 2016

I foresee David Cameron running to the store to buy antiperspirant.

"A modest man, with much to be modest about"

    • 1
Jun 24, 2016

Crazy, this is so not good for investment banks..

Jun 28, 2016

"JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc have said Brexit would lead them to move thousands of jobs out of London." I see what you mean

    • 1
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Jun 24, 2016

I guess this means more work for the rest of the world?

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Jun 24, 2016

Bear with me, but why exactly are the global markets down so much and why is the pound crashing? I have tried to research this and it never gave an explanation for why the pound is down and markets are down but what exactly is the reasoning for this. I have only taken basic macroeconomics so far and I'm thinking its because of the massive uncertainty and now that Brexit has happened trade will be down.

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Jun 28, 2016

You're right. Market movements are mostly based on intuition and guesswork. The key element here is uncertainty, and how EU and the UK can continue to collaborate (globalisation means the divorce here if not settled amicably could result in further financial losses).

The pound should rise again, and so will the other indices. Brexit is one of the most complicated splits ever, and not even economists or policy makers can pinpoint any specifics right now.

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Jun 24, 2016
ChiStreet:

Bear with me, but why exactly are the global markets down so much and why is the pound crashing? I have tried to research this and it never gave an explanation for why the pound is down and markets are down but what exactly is the reasoning for this. I have only taken basic macroeconomics so far and I'm thinking its because of the massive uncertainty and now that Brexit has happened trade will be down.

The major driver behind the decline in the GBP and the stock markets its the uncertainty surrounding both, because no one can gauge the magnitude of the consequences of this vote.

There is a high chance, that the UK will lose their credit rating, too. I don't think that the agencies will just let their current rating fly, considering the additional economic and political risk surrounding the UK after the exit.

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Jun 24, 2016
Matrick:

ChiStreet:Bear with me, but why exactly are the global markets down so much and why is the pound crashing? I have tried to research this and it never gave an explanation for why the pound is down and markets are down but what exactly is the reasoning for this. I have only taken basic macroeconomics so far and I'm thinking its because of the massive uncertainty and now that Brexit has happened trade will be down.

The major driver behind the decline in the GBP and the stock markets its the uncertainty surrounding both, because no one can gauge the magnitude of the consequences of this vote.

There is a high chance, that the UK will lose their credit rating, too. I don't think that the agencies will just let their current rating fly, considering the additional economic and political risk surrounding the UK after the exit.

That's actually a pretty good summary.

Markets are panicking right now, but from the UK's perspective this might turn out to be a very good thing. It's a bit much to get into right now (working to finish a large project today), but I regard the EU as being a sinking ship economically.....as evidenced my MASSIVE capital flows leaving the EU for US tax havens over the past year. By leaving the UK stands to be spared the worst of the crash and may very well become the largest economy in Europe during the rebound.

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Jun 24, 2016

In related news: Nexit and Frexit votes are on the horizon.

Jun 24, 2016

Also, Scexit (from the UK). The question is which falls apart first: the European Union, or Britain, since Scotland and Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly for EU membership.

Jun 24, 2016

BriVexIt would be nice. then I wouldn't need a passport to visit Tortola

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Jun 24, 2016

The next important dates to come up:

July 5: June services and composite Purchasing Managers Surveys
July 5 and 7: Gilt auctions
July 12: Office for Budget Responsibility fiscal outlook
July 14: Rics housing market survey
July 14: Bank of England monetary policy decision
Mid-July: Business reaction clearer
July 27: Second-quarter GDP
August 4: BoE inflation report
September -- Official data flow intensifies
October 27 -- third-quarter GDP
November -- The Autumn Statement

Especially the Gilt auctions will be interesting, as it will show how investors view the risk profile of the newly exited United Kingdom.

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Jun 24, 2016

thanks, good for forex

Jun 24, 2016

You're shorting I assume?

The Czech koruna is down 3.8 per cent against the dollar to 24.647; Poland's zloty has fallen 7.4 per cent to 4.11 per dollar, while the Hungarian forint is weaker by as much as 5 per cent to 290.4.

Eastern European countries outside the eurozone had been seen as most vulnerable to Britain's exit from the bloc ahead of the vote.

Jun 28, 2016

Since you think the GBP hasn't gone to the bottom yet, what do you see as the risk/reward position of shorting vs going long?

Jun 24, 2016
etx:

Since you think the GBP hasn't gone to the bottom yet, what do you see as the risk/reward position of shorting vs going long?

I can't answer that question, as I don't trade in FX and haven't done any analysis on this. My hunch is though that the last hasn't been heard yet, so I wouldn't be surprised if the GBP would fall further, with the catalysts being the dates I mentioned above.

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Jun 24, 2016

Btw, I didn't see anyone mentioning this yet, but Scotland wants to remain in the EU.
This may mean that UK is history, too.

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Jun 28, 2016

Wow yeah, I just read that on BBC. All 32 council seats voted for remain.

Jun 24, 2016

London and Northern Ireland voted to stay too. Behind Scotland, London and Northern Ireland led in "remain" votes. This may also have future implications for the UK

Jun 24, 2016

Assuming Scotlands independance, England loses a ton of money because of the North Sea-Oil belonging to the scots. The UK collapses and wealthy companies move to ... the mainland? For sure to a safer place with alliances, therefore a EU member-country.

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Jun 25, 2016
LIMES:

Assuming Scotlands independance, England loses a ton of money because of the North Sea-Oil belonging to the scots. The UK collapses and wealthy companies move to ... the mainland? For sure to a safer place with alliances, therefore a EU member-country.

This is politely incorrect and the amount of other hyperbole or ill-informed ideas / assertions in this thread writ large is getting to be a bit much. Looking at this, there are five separate issues at play. First, oil itself, at current prices the majority of North Sea oil is not profitable. This is also reflected by the fact that the supermajors have shut down some of their North Sea production last year. Additionally, Scotland does not automatically gain the North Sea oil infrastructure should they vote for independence. This would have to be negotiated with the rump UK.

Second, in terms of revenue generation, during the Scottish National Party's (SNP) rise, then leader, future first minister of Scottish Parliament, and current SNP MP in Westminster, Alex Salmond asserted an independent Scotland would rely on on the twin pillars of their robust oil and financial sectors. We addressed the former in the first factor, so let's consider the second. The institutions he was referring to were RBS, HBOS, and Standard Life. Flashing forward RBS has never recovered from the financial crisis and HBOS was saved from collapse by Lloyd's who acquired them. During the previous referendum, regardless of potential EU membership, RBS, Lloyd's, and Standard Life all stated they'd move operations to London if Scotland went independent. So much for the second pillar.

Now this issue of EU membership dovetails into the third factor. An independent Scotland does not automatically join the EU, far from it in fact. Not only would Scotland in the wake of an independence vote have to go through the lengthy and immensely complicated years long accession process, they would in the end likely be vetoed by at least Spain and others as well (such as Italy). Spain has said this through a myriad of back channels and in other forums before the last vote. Spain have their own fears around Catalonia and Italy has similar, albeit less volatile issues with Northern Italy. Thus at best EU membership is many years down the road for Scotland and likely an impossibility in the next decade if not longer.

Fourth, despite some popular narratives to the contrary, the SNP is not guaranteed to win their referendum. Scotland voted 62% to 38% in the Brexit referendum. A clear preference for Remain, but not only was this a tighter margin than expected, but turnout was quite low compared to the rest of the UK. In addition to this, the most recent Scottish Parliamentary elections resulted in a minority SNP government after they won outright majorities in the previous two elections. They received 46.5% of the vote, clearly less than they would need to win an independence referendum. In sum, victory is not only not guaranteed, but will be a proverbial knife fight.

Fifth and finally is the simplest part of all. The new UK Prime Minister (likely Boris Johnson, but possibly Michael Gove, or somewhat doubtfully Theresa May) would have to agree to allow any binding referendum, it is quite possible that in such a situation, this gets pushed off through the next election if not indefinitely. The latter would be decidedly difficult and would spur greater acrimony between Westminster and Holyrood, but is still a possibility.

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Jun 24, 2016

Okay, now based on what people said that the pound would make a comeback and rise back up - wouldn't it be a good time to now invest in the pound since its at its all time low in three decades?

Jun 24, 2016
ChiStreet:

Okay, now based on what people said that the pound would make a comeback and rise back up - wouldn't it be a good time to now invest in the pound since its at its all time low in three decades?

I'm not sure that we've reached the bottom yet. The biggest opportunity to short was right after the vote was announced. It is questionable if the GBP will recover to the same value as before considering the new geopolitical environment.

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Jun 24, 2016

Since there is so much uncertainty and wishy-washy all around the markets, I'm wondering how in the world are investors and firms deciding whether to invest or short, etc. Are investors taking a big gamble at this point?

Jun 24, 2016

Besides a few guys being short in FX, i think you see the majority of investors pulling out of a lot of positions, which is why you see the prices of assets plummet. Investors prefer to minimise their risk exposure when it comes to things like (unpredictable) political risk.

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Jun 28, 2016

You've got individual investors lost in the overwhelming sea of uncertainty and news articles, versus institutional investors and S&T running their algorithms. Can't pinpoint risk exactly, but some certainly do it better than others.

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Jun 28, 2016

Sure, it will rise. But the main issue is timing. Individual investors have no clue what the biggest banks and financial institutions are thinking. I'm pretty sure all the senior traders are working around the clock (many flew into London from other markets). It's all about market sentiment.

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Jun 24, 2016

Mexican peso at an all-time low, too. If you're keen on going long, may wanna look at that, too

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Jun 24, 2016
Matrick:

Mexican peso at an all-time low, too. If you're keen on going long, may wanna look at that, too

@Matrick - Good call. I've been following the MXP for over a while, and it looks like a very interesting FX play. It's amazing that the USD has continued to rise relative to other currencies in the past couple of years. To an extent it has been buoyed by the drop in commodity prices for large export countries (e.g., CAD, AUS), but many people are concerned about the US markets. I'm not currency expert, but I lived in the EU for awhile.

The belief of some is that the EU will impose tariffs on UK manufactured goods. As a result, low-cost countries in the EU could see an drastic rise in manufacturing.

Jun 24, 2016

Oh I see, thanks a lot to you guys for clearing up my questions. I doubt anyone can get useful information with so many articles having different viewpoints and information, which was why I was wondering what investors were basing their actions on.

Jun 28, 2016

Haha, no problem. Uncertainty is the key to investing. You either get it and profit, or you lose.

Jun 24, 2016
etx:

Haha, no problem. Uncertainty is the key to investing. You either get it and profit, or you lose.

I think what you want to say is that gauging risk/reward is the key, i.e. being compensated for taking the risk when there is uncertainty.

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Jun 28, 2016

Right, I was unclear. Uncertainty is the overarching factor in these situations, and gauging risk/reward leads to profit.

Jun 24, 2016

We shall see a rise in the sales of Feng-Shui and other good luck products.

Also, we will see a rise in prescription of anti-depressants.

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Jun 28, 2016

Christ, David Cameron just resigned as PM.

Jun 24, 2016

Wasn't David Cameron already predicted to resign? What would David Cameron resigning mean for the UK? More Uncertainty?

Jun 24, 2016

Cameron was going to leverage this as a means to either stay or go.

In this case, 'Game Over.'

Jun 24, 2016

This is a shambles, the voter demographic is very telling.

GBP taking a hammering, British banks down, safe havens up.

Anyone got a view on where UK interest rates go from here?

Interested to see the effect on the UK housing market.

Jun 24, 2016
GMG:

This is a shambles, the voter demographic is very telling.

GBP taking a hammering, British banks down, safe havens up.

Anyone got a view on where UK interest rates go from here?

Interested to see the effect on the UK housing market.

It will work itself out. This is just panic selling right now. Things will be fine with the market.

Jun 24, 2016

Good optimism! Think we will see a recovery as we head to Oct before the article 50 implementation, but long term I see plain stagnation as a result, which just isn't worth it. Things were hardly bad before hand which is the most frustrating thing - this risk and uncertainty just seems pointless unless you overly care about sovereignty or immigration, which aren't worth caring about.

Jun 24, 2016
GMG:

Good optimism! Think we will see a recovery as we head to Oct before the article 50 implementation, but long term I see plain stagnation as a result, which just isn't worth it. Things were hardly bad before hand which is the most frustrating thing - this risk and uncertainty just seems pointless unless you overly care about sovereignty or immigration, which aren't worth caring about.

Immigration and sovereignty are huge for a nation with its own independent culture, language, identity, and politics.

Hopefully the UK will eject (self-eject) Scotland and take its country back from what the political left has misappropriated. Without Scotland, the UK Labour Party is permanently dead.

Jun 24, 2016

If that's the case why have the majority of British people in their 20's & 30's voted to remain? The

The reason London is one of the greatest and most prosperous places to live in the world is due to the multiculturalism, not isolationism - it's no surprise the majority of Londoners voted in. England hasn't lost it's independent culture, I live here, British culture is still very much alive, so is the language and identity.

I am British and the vast majority of people in my age group (20's) voted to remain, with immigration and sovereignty not that high up the list of concerns, we're more concerned with the economics of the whole situation and the economics of the future as we inevitably prop up the ageing population and pension disaster in the UK. Ironically its the aging population that voted out in the majority, yet they wont be around for that long to have to deal with it.

Jun 24, 2016
GMG:

<

p>I live here, British culture is still very much alive, so is the language and identity.

Dude he doesn't give a fk about preserving shit he's just using that as a proxy to espouse his views, xenophobia is in these days, haven't you heard?

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Jun 24, 2016
GMG:

If that's the case why have the majority of British people in their 20's & 30's voted to remain? The

The reason London is one of the greatest and most prosperous places to live in the world is due to the multiculturalism, not isolationism - it's no surprise the majority of Londoners voted in. England hasn't lost it's independent culture, I live here, British culture is still very much alive, so is the language and identity.

I am British and the vast majority of people in my age group (20's) voted to remain, with immigration and sovereignty not that high up the list of concerns, we're more concerned with the economics of the whole situation and the economics of the future as we inevitably prop up the ageing population and pension disaster in the UK. Ironically its the aging population that voted out in the majority, yet they wont be around for that long to have to deal with it.

Because 20 and 30-somethings can be easily manipulated by government propaganda, which was laid on thick by the Cameron government for a year.

Also, 20 and 30-somethings voted for Barack Obama twice. I don't put a lot of stock in what the young and ignorant believe.

Jun 29, 2016
GMG:

If that's the case why have the majority of British people in their 20's & 30's voted to remain? The

The reason London is one of the greatest and most prosperous places to live in the world is due to the multiculturalism, not isolationism - it's no surprise the majority of Londoners voted in. England hasn't lost it's independent culture, I live here, British culture is still very much alive, so is the language and identity.

I am British and the vast majority of people in my age group (20's) voted to remain, with immigration and sovereignty not that high up the list of concerns, we're more concerned with the economics of the whole situation and the economics of the future as we inevitably prop up the ageing population and pension disaster in the UK. Ironically its the aging population that voted out in the majority, yet they wont be around for that long to have to deal with it.

The majority of British people in their 20s didn't vote, period. The data doesn't show that they support remain so much as it shows that they don't care.

Jun 24, 2016

Interests rates cut to zero. Cameron resigned and predicts "no immediate changes for European Union citizens who live in the UK". No shit Sherlock

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Jun 24, 2016

Carney doing his job and steadying the ship was v. necessary. Sturgeon rocking the boat but I'm with her on this one.

Thoughts on your industry going fwd? FDI reduced in the short term surely?

And next leader? Surely not Boris, guy's a joke.

Jun 24, 2016

It feels like our future has been sold by the elderly and the misinformed.

This will split the nation, young from old and educated from those less.

Offshore liffe

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Jun 28, 2016

Interesting, but what exactly do you mean?

Jun 24, 2016

Voting was completely split by demographic, even as shown by Populus (polling co) before the vote. Vote looks along the lines of:
18 - 24: 75% Remain
25 - 49: 57% Remain
50 - 64: 58% Leave
65+: 62% Leave

Can't find the data I saw on educational split but it was along the lines of:
Masters/above: strong Remain
Undergraduate: strong Remain
A-Level: moderate Leave
GCSE/lower: strong Leave

There's also a distinct split between those with a mortgage (moderate remain) and those without (leave), and those on social housing (strong leave). Naturally in a population turnout is low among the <25 and high among >55. It also makes sense that there are more people in the "non-univeristy-educated" bucket than those within, and until 20 years ago the GCSE was the maximum required qualification.

It's a very sad and scary day for Britain.

Offshore liffe

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Jun 24, 2016

Summed up very well, it is a scary day indeed.

Yet to hear a compelling reason to have voted leave, immigrants stealing our jobs and the need to lock down our borders don't count.

Jun 24, 2016

+1
Plenty of Brit colleagues here in Luxembourg (expats) are quite worried with the result, as they may not even be able to live in the country anymore where they have houses, families etc.

Colourful TV, colourless Life.

Jun 24, 2016
GMG:

Summed up very well, it is a scary day indeed.

Yet to hear a compelling reason to have voted leave, immigrants stealing our jobs and the need to lock down our borders don't count.

There isn't a single compelling reason. It's a myriad of factors within the EU that would indicate being in the EU is about as wonderful as being on the Titanic....it's a great time unless you're one the ones who is paying enough attention to realize that it's about to hit an iceberg.

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Jun 24, 2016
big1:

Voting was completely split by demographic, even as shown by Populus (polling co) before the vote. Vote looks along the lines of:18 - 24: 75% Remain25 - 49: 57% Remain50 - 64: 58% Leave65+: 62% Leave

Can't find the data I saw on educational split but it was along the lines of:Masters/above: strong RemainUndergraduate: strong RemainA-Level: moderate LeaveGCSE/lower: strong Leave

There's also a distinct split between those with a mortgage (moderate remain) and those without (leave), and those on social housing (strong leave). Naturally in a population turnout is low among the <25 and high among >55. It also makes sense that there are more people in the "non-univeristy-educated" bucket than those within, and until 20 years ago the GCSE was the maximum required qualification.

It's a very sad and scary day for Britain.

If 75% of 18-24-year-olds supported "Remain" then what on God's green earth does that tell you? The people with the least amount of wisdom, the least experience, the least knowledge of history, the least context of history, overwhelmingly supported "Remain."

Jun 24, 2016

Wow, what a stupid comment. "People with least wisdom and knowledge" voting for Remain? No way. Look at the polls and the voter breakdown by education - the educated voted for Remain and high school dropouts were for Leave. Btw, London voted 75% for Remain, Cambridge 74%, and Oxford 70%.

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Jun 24, 2016
Jack334:

Wow, what a stupid comment. "People with least wisdom and knowledge" voting for Remain? No way. Look at the polls and the voter breakdown by education - the educated voted for Remain and high school dropouts were for Leave. Btw, London voted 75% for Remain, Cambridge 74%, and Oxford 70%.

Can you read? I'm talking about young people. People who have no WISDOM (not education) voted "Remain" overwhelmingly. Young people, as a voting bloc, are morons. From France to the U.S. to the UK to Venezuela.

Jun 24, 2016
Virginia Tech 4ever:

big1:Voting was completely split by demographic, even as shown by Populus (polling co) before the vote. Vote looks along the lines of:18 - 24: 75% Remain25 - 49: 57% Remain50 - 64: 58% Leave65+: 62% LeaveCan't find the data I saw on educational split but it was along the lines of:Masters/above: strong RemainUndergraduate: strong RemainA-Level: moderate LeaveGCSE/lower: strong LeaveThere's also a distinct split between those with a mortgage (moderate remain) and those without (leave), and those on social housing (strong leave). Naturally in a population turnout is low among the <25 and high among >55. It also makes sense that there are more people in the "non-univeristy-educated" bucket than those within, and until 20 years ago the GCSE was the maximum required qualification.It's a very sad and scary day for Britain.

If 75% of 18-24-year-olds supported "Remain" then what on God's green earth does that tell you? The people with the least amount of wisdom, the least experience, the least knowledge of history, the least context of history, overwhelmingly supported "Remain."

This is the shit that gets me. Old people are inherently more bigoted than young people. This was an anti-immigration vote, so old people from rural areas who are more likely to hate immigrants that do not look like them voted leave. Your argument is due to their old age the vote was rooted in wisdom? Mine is it was rooted in disdain for those that do no look like them, the educational split reflects this as well. Your theory that an old HS dropout knows more about the economic/political ramifications of a leave vote over a young graduate is asinine. Lol Wisdom, what a croc.

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Jun 24, 2016
BobTheBaker:

Virginia Tech 4ever: big1:Voting was completely split by demographic, even as shown by Populus (polling co) before the vote. Vote looks along the lines of:18 - 24: 75% Remain25 - 49: 57% Remain50 - 64: 58% Leave65+: 62% LeaveCan't find the data I saw on educational split but it was along the lines of:Masters/above: strong RemainUndergraduate: strong RemainA-Level: moderate LeaveGCSE/lower: strong LeaveThere's also a distinct split between those with a mortgage (moderate remain) and those without (leave), and those on social housing (strong leave). Naturally in a population turnout is low among the <25 and high among >55. It also makes sense that there are more people in the "non-univeristy-educated" bucket than those within, and until 20 years ago the GCSE was the maximum required qualification.It's a very sad and scary day for Britain.If 75% of 18-24-year-olds supported "Remain" then what on God's green earth does that tell you? The people with the least amount of wisdom, the least experience, the least knowledge of history, the least context of history, overwhelmingly supported "Remain."

This is the shit that gets me. Old people are inherently more bigoted than young people. This was an anti-immigration vote, so old people from rural areas who are more likely to hate immigrants that do not look like them voted leave. Your argument is due to their old age the vote was rooted in wisdom? Mine is it was rooted in disdain for those that do no look like them, the educational split reflects this as well. Your theory that an old HS dropout knows more about the economic/political ramifications of a leave vote over a young graduate is asinine. Lol Wisdom, what a croc.

Really? So the 43% of 25 to 49-year-olds who voted "Leave" are "old bigots" compared to the 75% of 18-24-year-olds who voted "Remain"? Those age ranges sound more like "wisdom" to me than they sound like huge cultural differences. A 35-year-old, for example, was born in 1981 and is not exactly from a backward age.

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Jun 24, 2016

Frexit will never happen. Despite the current climate in France, people feel way more attached to Europe than in the UK. Same for Netherlands, not one of the founding 6 will ever vote to exit.

Jun 24, 2016

Soros is making a killing..that dirty dog

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Jun 24, 2016

I was thinking the same thing. He recently turned up his trading stating that he sees uncertainty in the future. Britain seems to be his cash cow.

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Jun 24, 2016

As soon as I saw the results from Sunderland at 1:30 am I ran down stairs to my dad and said I bet Soros is a master at deception, I bet he was just playing everyone saying it will remain and had a good idea all alone to go short! I wake up to hear a yes vote. Someone made big bank!!

Jun 26, 2016

Soros may be making a killing, but I've lost the equivalent of a small house money on Friday.

Jun 26, 2016

DO you know exactly what Soros is making?

Ouch Im really sorry to hear about your loss.
Where did you go wrong?

Jun 27, 2016
BatMasterson:

Soros may be making a killing, but I've lost the equivalent of a small house money on Friday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/...
Nah.
He took a pounding, pun intended.
Though he's long on gold so that probably helped him.

Jun 24, 2016

The Gov can still invoke the Parliament's legal right to exercise a legally binding vote to decide the actual outcome of the referendum, since the referendum is not legally binding.

Call it usurpation, but the Parliament is legally entitled to cast a vote against Brexit, citing that the event could cause a matter of national danger - Scotland and Northern Ireland are threatening to cast a vote to leave the UK and stay in the EU as sovereign nations.

I have no idea how likely this is, but it's not impossible.

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Jun 28, 2016

Quite an interesting point. As mentioned earlier in this post, the existence of UK could very much hang in the balance.

Jun 24, 2016

in reality they won't. that's just like suggesting that the queen will shoot it down just because the right to do so exists. nothing is really lost if scotland and northern ireland leave the uk. to be blunt, they're leeches.

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Jun 24, 2016

Fair logic, but to be precise the Queen doesn't have any right to do so. However, in the grand interest of the nation, the Parliament has every single legal right to act in the best interest of indivisibility and state preservation.

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Jun 24, 2016
gezora:

in reality they won't. that's just like suggesting that the queen will shoot it down just because the right to do so exists. nothing is really lost if scotland and northern ireland leave the uk. to be blunt, they're leeches.

I wouldn't be so hasty. They have access to some prime real estate up there and considerable natural resources rights.

Jun 27, 2016

It feels good to have bought VIX at 14 two weeks ago.

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Jun 24, 2016

What exact security did you buy? Must have made a killing if you were long the right one.

Jun 27, 2016

VIX etf. (NYSEARCA:VXX)
And double VIX (NYSEARCA:TVIX).
US markets open in 30 mins, we'll see.

Futures would have been better but hey..

Jun 26, 2016

VXX is a crap product. You're better SSing XIV.

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Jun 27, 2016
IvyLeagueVet:

VXX is a crap product. You're better SSing XIV.

Good point.

Jun 24, 2016

This is a fucking shit show

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Jun 24, 2016

More inflation than Bernanke and Yellen could produce combined. Do you realize what their debt is primarily denominated in? GBP. And their exports just got 20% cheaper. Goodbye stagflation and hello return of production and actual growth to the UK.

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Jun 28, 2016

How will EU handle trade relationships? Will that affect their return to production and growth?

Jun 24, 2016

Imo, the change in the UK's bargaining power as an individual entity rather than as a part of the EU is more than offset by the fact that it can create more specifically beneficial (bespoke) trade agreements and the fact that its exports will now be much less expensive. The problem with the EU is that the one-size-fits-all element of its... well... everything results in a much less than than optimally-efficient allocation of resources. Just my 2 cents.

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Jun 28, 2016

Apt analysis haha

Jun 24, 2016
YoshiIsAwesome:

Imo, the change in the UK's bargaining power as an individual entity rather than as a part of the EU is more than offset by the fact that it can create more specifically beneficial (bespoke) trade agreements and the fact that its exports will now be much less expensive. The problem with the EU is that the one-size-fits-all element of its... well... everything results in a much less than than optimally-efficient allocation of resources. Just my 2 cents.

Except now the UK is a smaller party trying to negotiate with a larger one with more negotiating power. Also very likely the EU will not be very accommodating to discourage anyone else from leaving the EU.

Jun 24, 2016

"

CatsCradle:

YoshiIsAwesome:Imo, the change in the UK's bargaining power as an individual entity rather than as a part of the EU is more than offset by the fact that it can create more specifically beneficial (bespoke) trade agreements and the fact that its exports will now be much less expensive. The problem with the EU is that the one-size-fits-all element of its... well... everything results in a much less than than optimally-efficient allocation of resources. Just my 2 cents."

Except now the UK is a smaller party trying to negotiate with a larger one with more negotiating power. Also very likely the EU will not be very accommodating to discourage anyone else from leaving the EU.

I am aware. Please see my quotation that you cited: "the change in the UK's bargaining power as an individual entity rather than as a part of the EU"

Jun 24, 2016

Forgive me naivety, I'm an American that has never worked in trading/FX. Can someone answer a few questions I have:

1) If the UK was a EU member, than why were they not on the Euro currency like all the other countries?
2) Did the UK have power over their own monetary and fiscal policies while they were in the EU?
3) On the surface, this doesn't seem to be all that bad for the UK, I assume this Brexit gives them more freedom.

After reading the comments above, I'm still not understanding exactly why this is such a bad thing for the UK.

Best Response
Jun 24, 2016

1) The EU was founded a long time ago as the ECSC. A single currency was introduced much later and countries didn't have to opt into it (UK and Sweden didn't) BUT it is a non-negotiable part of accession for all states joining later (NMS - new member states) for example in Croatia you can use the Kuna or the Euro and eventually it will be just Euro. The EU and monetary union are not synonymous.

2) Yes. Our own Central Bank, currency etc. but the ECB is influential. Even here the FED is still the true power in the waters.

3) It's fucking terrible. We had a very good (and one sided) deal in the EU. Access to single market but not a member of the currency; we were the only country with a rebate (negotiated by Thatcher), lions share of the CAP (after Thatcher); good circle of negotiating allies AND not even a part of schengen.

89% of economists thought remain was better (FT) as did the CB etc AND all 3 major political parties. To be in the single market you have to adopt the rules, now we will have all the rules and no say in how they are made as well as a tariff. Additionally, we'll have to sit at the negotiating table as a lone island rather than a block, thereby reducing our leverage as a purchaser / consumer.

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Jun 24, 2016

Thanks, that's very helpful. +1

Jun 24, 2016

No problem.

Realised I addressed your monetary point but not the fiscal one. So

2.ii

Fiscal policies, specifically creating a fiscal union, has been a huge pain point for the EU as currently you can access services in one member state but pay for them in another at a discounted/inflated rate. Those who want deeper union pushed for fiscal union, those who wanted less union called for restriction of services.

Guess we won't have to worry now!

Jun 24, 2016

Just a quick question- I get the impact and all on global markets and such but WHY did the UK even have a vote in the first place? What was the driving factor behind this? Why did they choose now and who was the person(s) who thought this would be a good thing to vote over?

Jun 24, 2016

The conservatives promised a referendum as part of their campaign in the general election - a large part of the population found this an attractive prospect and it played a part in helping the Conservative government win the election.

Jun 24, 2016

There has been a culture of blaming Brussels for everything for a while (convenient for national politicians). People don't like the loss of sovereignty that comes with un-elected officials (technocrats) making rules which effect individual nations and this, coupled with immigration worries (sound familiar), gave rise to 'eurosceptic' (anti-EU) parties. These parties have gained some traction in most EU countries - particularly the UK. They were splitting the vote of the right (republican) and eventually to try and diffuse the situation a referendum was offered by the Prime Minister (David Cameron, who resigned today). Here we are.

Allowing people to vote on technical and complex issues has been wrestled with since Plato's Republic.... unfortunately sometimes you have to appease the mob.

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Jun 24, 2016
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Jun 24, 2016

from a source I have at MS: the media reports are inaccurate, Gorman saying no plans to move out of UK.

part of me thinks this is ass covering, but the other part of me thinks that would be way too knee jerk when this process could take years to unfold

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Jun 24, 2016

R/E earlier comments - no personal offence, but definitely heresy to some ;)

Interesting. Press has been reporting lawyers raking in fees for months off of 'strategic relocation advice' so it's waiting to see who acts first - if anyone was actually advised to leave at all. It would be a brave/stupid move for an IB to face the public criticism of being the first to abandon ship and flee to Frankfurt.

If you speak French their news coverage is meant to be pretty intense atm. Le Pen seizing her opportunity.

Jun 24, 2016

The voters were well informed of the economic risks associated with leaving the EU.

The decision to leave was driven by a desire to have more control over domestic affairs, namely immigration. The EU really mishandled the Syrian migrant crisis.

Jun 25, 2016

Mishandled as in letting asylum seekers from a war-torn country in? Or not doing enough to step migrants coming (ending the war)?
Didn't see UK taking in many Syrian migrants, so not sure what you're getting at?

Jun 24, 2016

Nothing is going to actually happen, for those who are unaware this vote was a referendum to discuss the idea of leaving the EU. Do you think the government officials who stand to loose billions of dollars and thus votes are going to approve leaving the EU? Get the fuck out of here.

Follow the shit your fellow monkeys say @shitWSOsays

Life is hard, it's even harder when you're stupid - John Wayne

Jun 24, 2016

Valid point - no one has agreed to be the one to put Article 50 in play.

But the markets don't agree with you.

Jun 24, 2016

The markets just love volatility. It is just an event.

Follow the shit your fellow monkeys say @shitWSOsays

Life is hard, it's even harder when you're stupid - John Wayne

Dec 13, 2017

Nice one.

Jun 26, 2016

Could the banks be serious about leaving/moving staff or are they calling the govt bluff and trying to negotiate a better deal for example get the govt to implement less regulations etc..?

Jun 28, 2016

That is plausible actually. Never really thought about it that way!

Jun 26, 2016

All the crap such as bonus cap and various regulatory reforms is from eu stuff.
Get rid of the stuff and UK could be an incredible place to do banking

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Dec 13, 2017

I for one am not pleased by this outcome - terrible choice on their part

Jun 24, 2016
Hiphopotamus:

I for one am not pleased by this outcome - terrible choice on their part

I thought this too. But, how is this bad? I thought the economy was terrible already over there?

As my friend just told me, "Game over."

Jun 24, 2016

Awful choice, the economy was far far from terrible, one, if not the, strongest in Europe. Slow growth but look at the rest of the world.

We've traded that for a lot of uncertainty and risk - not a good choice. The rhetoric from so many voters is what's the most frustrating, and highlights the problems with democracy.

Dec 13, 2017

Wasn't UK a financial hub prior EU as well? What a great time to enter your final year in the UK :s

Dec 13, 2017

I'm starting at a MM IB in London in a few weeks. Majority of deal flow is from UK focused PE firms. Pretty scared I won't have a job within 12-18 months. London based bankers / PE folk, what are your thoughts?

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Jun 24, 2016

Proud of those little limeys. After centuries of conceding power to less sophisticated nations and cultures, they are finally look at their lots and saying, "fuck you."

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Jun 24, 2016

Fucking idiots who don't understand the economic implications... This is why some people shouldn't be allowed to vote.

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Jun 24, 2016

(all through a US lens because that's what I care about)

predictions:

by 2020, Northern Ireland will be part of Ireland, Scotland will be an independent country, and the EU will otherwise be intact.

immediately, huge temporary declines, but I don't see this sending the US market into recession or a crash, we may do some buying today in fact. what will be interesting to see is how this affects earnings of US companies. for example, as the pound falls versus the dollar, what impact might that have on US companies' earnings from abroad? will we see another earnings recession because of currency? or, will the effects be muted?

for the UK, I'm uneducated but part of me thinks the biggest risk is GDP declines or an outright recession, I don't forsee a trade war. UK trades with EU who trades with UK, they both have leverage.

I heard rumblings on our morning call about QE in UK, lower rates, etc., as a form of attempted stimulus.

UPDATE: did some buying today, don't think this will be as huge as people think long term. but still, I'd hate to be a currency trader today.

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Jun 28, 2016

I think it's mostly short-term movements that will be closely watched by traders and investors. How's your portfolio looing?

Jun 24, 2016

wayyyyy too early to tell. we had some dry powder and this was just an opportunity to add to existing positions on a pullback.

Jun 24, 2016
thebrofessor:

(all through a US lens because that's what I care about)

predictions:

by 2020, Northern Ireland will be part of Ireland.

Ever been to Belfast?

Jun 24, 2016

I have not, just looking at the map, 100% of northern ireland and most if not all of scotland voted to stay, so maybe that incites some enthusiasm to leave UK.

Jun 24, 2016

Assuming you know about the war that tore lots of families apart, bombs in pubs, kneecaps etc etc. Well, the murals are still painted on the walls, the 'peace lines' are still up and the UVF/IRA tension still bubbles so, with all respect, I think your NI/SI prediction is more than a little off.

Would agree that Scotland is in play. Ironic thing about this leave the EU ref is that it might tear the UK apart.... which then opens up big questions about the basque country etc.

EU on shaky ground. reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-outers-all-idUSKCN0ZA2LP

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Jun 24, 2016

Getting the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland to combine is like trying to get oil and water to combine.

Jun 24, 2016

way too soon, got it! didn't mean any disrespect. but at a minimum, it wouldn't shock me if northern ireland left UK and somehow joined EU. perhaps a new nation rises: the republic of the british isles, comprised of northern ireland, scotland, jersey? I'm culturally ignorant for that part of the world, so what I'm saying may very well be heresy, just postulating here.

Jun 24, 2016

Haha none taken, I'm far from Irish! - I think NI and Scotland would love to be in the EU, so would most of London (I would love an independent London where the M25 ring road is the border though!). It would however be a sad sad day if the UK splintered in that way.

Jun 24, 2016

This is much more of a non-issue than people are thinking it is. Market volatility for a couple of weeks due to uncertainty, but nothing catastrophic IMO

Jun 28, 2016

I agree. Personally, I think these rare events are just a field day for traders.

Jun 24, 2016

Excellent buying opportunities, particularly for the Pound.

Jun 28, 2016

How low do you anticipate it falling to?

Jun 24, 2016

The geopolitical implications are probably far more important here. China/Russia want the EU to die, it is better to negotiate economically/exert influence over individual (relatively small) economies all looking out for their self-interest than it is with a united front like the EU. If France or Italy show indications of leaving the EU is done and China/Russia are all the more powerful for it.

Jun 28, 2016

I know Putin is having a great day for sure!

Jun 24, 2016

Much ado about nothing. Stocks will be on sale for a while.

Jun 24, 2016

I really hope the banks don't move to Dublin or Frankfurt - both of them are sad and depressing places to live.

Would be nice though to build a new financial center somewhere on the Spanish cost.

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Jun 24, 2016

What's so depressing about Dublin? (Excuse my Bias it's my native town) it's not that different to London?

Jun 28, 2016

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13618814/1/6-conse... Decent article regarding six consequences of Brexit

Jun 24, 2016

What are your predictions on how deep the markets will sink before it stabilizes/recovers? Is it a good time to long the GBP?

Jun 29, 2016

Bought some calls on BCS right now. Yes I expected some selloff but this looks like a severe over-reaction.

Jun 24, 2016

Should have bought that GBP/JPY straddle

You killed the Greece spread goes up, spread goes down, from Wall Street they all play like a freak, Goldman Sachs 'o beat.

Jun 28, 2016

Haha I agree, short term volatility is the most important factor right now.

Jun 24, 2016

I buy into the argument that Brexit is big for UK, but will not yield significant effect worldwide due to 1) small size: UK GDP = 4% World GDP and 2) low contagiousness: we see not much leverage from/to UK and GBP nominated/ UK assets hold by foreign cos and govs. Look at two recent crisis roots: Lehman and Greece are not necessarily big, but they are so heavily leveraged that their downfall has significant impact on lenders.

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Jun 24, 2016

I'll opine: in the short term, domestic M&A will fair better because of the risky international market and continued low interest rate policy from the Fed. Ultimately, it will be a near term tailwind for investment banking.
EDIT: I'm American, btw

Jun 24, 2016

Maybe London housing will become cheaper once UK economy crumbles?

Just trying to see something positive in this mess.

It ain't what you know, it's who you know

Jun 24, 2016

My dad paying for UK tuition became happy that he will be paying less (but his portfolio took a beating).

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Jun 24, 2016

Personal question... As an American starting at Oxford undergrad next year, is it possible to be recruited at NYC banks or will I have to start learning French/German?

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Jun 24, 2016

As a UK school pupil (currently applying for university, starting in 2017), and who is looking into getting a front office IBD job (thus if I were to get a position it would be starting in 2020) what does this decision mean for my career prospects?

While I have heard that several investment banks threatened to cut jobs in the UK following a Brexit vote these claims are not being reiterated by banks today (sorry I have not included any links to news articles, I don't have enough points yet to post links).

If leaving the EU takes 2 years then by the time that I am applying for jobs the process should be complete, and so I am wondering if London will still remain the financial capital of Europe, and whether I would still be applying for jobs in London (I have heard that many jobs could be moving to Frankfurt or Dublin).

Jun 24, 2016

I was wondering the same thing (starting at Ox next year). Hopefully as an American, I can get recruited for NYC BBs.

Jun 24, 2016

Good luck and congratulations on the Oxford offer, unfortunately I have only UK citizenship and no connections in the US so getting a job in New York straight out of undergrad is very unlikely. However as I am not going to be starting until around 2020 hopefully the situation will be more stable by then.

Jun 24, 2016

Yeah that sucks, I am worried that I won't be able to come back and I have no skills in Spanish/French/German. So I am hoping Dublin gets the cut jobs.

Jun 24, 2016

I expect a good few of them to move to Dublin. CS have recently moved their Prime Brokerage as well as Guggenheim's Credit/Debt IBD team here. Additionally a lot of these already have quite large middle and back office operations here and it would make sense given the the language and the business friendly tax regime.

Jun 24, 2016

Those saying the EU will have much greater bargaining power than the UK when it comes to trade agreements. I don't think it will be that bad really.

The UK is the EU's 2nd largest power (behind Germany and practically on par with France). Without them the EU is a fair bit less influential.

When it comes to trading they are both important to eachother (especially Eastern Europe and Scandinavia loving the UK from my understanding, and the Mediterranean nations receiving millions of British tourists).

If, say, France and Germany wanted to be tough on the UK to deter other members from leaving, that might not please other nations within the EU who have a lot to lose by not trading with the UK and may in turn lead those nations consider leaving as well. Thus being tough could backfire.

Following that logic I reckon the EU might not be as tough as some may expect, without being overly generous.

Does that makes any sense?

Not terrifically well explained but my thumbs are aching.

Jun 24, 2016

@Virginia Tech 4ever" to be fair I did not say 100% of the leave camp is rooted in bigotry, also the leave camp does not gain majority until after 50 years old. Additionally, I would imagine a good amt of those remain votes in the 18-24 year olds were cast by 2nd generation immigrants, skewing the weight. In any case I find it hard to believe that the HS dropouts/non-college educated who voted leave are more informed/knowledgeable about the ramifications than the college educated who actually run the country.

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Jun 24, 2016
BobTheBaker:

@Virginia Tech 4ever to be fair I did not say 100% of the leave camp is rooted in bigotry, also the leave camp does not gain majority until after 50 years old. Additionally, I would imagine a good amt of those remain votes in the 18-24 year olds were cast by 2nd generation immigrants, skewing the weight. In any case I find it hard to believe that the HS dropouts/non-college educated who voted leave are more informed/knowledgeable about the ramifications than the college educated who actually run the country.

My father, a college educated CFO of a Fortune 500 insurance company, the author of one of the world's first accounting/computer textbooks, liked to refer to the college educated as "educated beyond commonsense." Their degrees mean NOTHING to me. The people with the least commonsense often have college degrees. People, like GMG (the poster) above, who don't believe immigration or national sovereignty are important issues. College students who score high on tests but who don't believe in freedom of speech.

BTW, it's fun watching my ignorant, Hollywood actor liberal friends on Facebook make uninformed and asinine proclamations on Facebook because, ya know, they spent a week in London one time. Is there anything more insufferable than a progressive liberal know-it-all?

Jun 24, 2016

you must be a trump fan

ps nice humble brags

What is the answer to 99 out of 100 questions?

Jun 24, 2016
David Aames:

you must be a trump fan

ps nice humble brags

Wrong. You arrogant pricks are so goddamn sure you know everything about everything. I was a Rubio guy from (almost) the beginning and was a chief opponent of Trump. In fact, I support a coup at the RNC against Trump.

By the way, what's so interesting about you liberal progressive pukes is that you claim to be the champion of the common man, and when the common man rises up and says that it's getting a raw deal, you liberal progressive jackasses reveal your true selves and your true feelings toward the common man. This entire thread is so revealing about the true thinking of the Western political left.

By the way, you obviously don't know what a humble-brag is since there was nothing "humble" about my comment.

Jun 24, 2016

Wow, so you are now arguing that college education is completeley worthless - but then why is your username "Virginia Tech 4ever"?

Jun 24, 2016
Jack334:

Wow, so you are now arguing that college education is completeley worthless - but then why is your username "Virginia Tech 4ever"?

No, I'm saying that a college education doesn't make someone's insight greater or lesser. A lot of college educated people are completely worthless individuals.

Jun 24, 2016
Virginia Tech 4ever:

No, I'm saying that a college education doesn't make someone's insight greater or lesser.

I guess you would not say that to a surgeon that would treat you from some gnarly disease or to a lawyer who would defend you from a possible 20 years jail time, or to a nurse that helps your wife during a birth of your child or to a pilot that flies the jet where you travel or to 100 other professionals that require a) knowledge b) competence c) practice.

You killed the Greece spread goes up, spread goes down, from Wall Street they all play like a freak, Goldman Sachs 'o beat.

Jun 24, 2016

Of course he would argue that. He went to Virginia tech

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Jun 24, 2016
Virginia Tech 4ever:

Is there anything more insufferable than a progressive liberal know-it-all?

Individuals with superiority complexes?

Jun 24, 2016
GMG:

Virginia Tech 4ever:Is there anything more insufferable than a progressive liberal know-it-all?

Individuals with superiority complexes?

Says the guy who thinks college educated individuals have a greater right to an opinion than non-college educated people. Irony.

Jun 24, 2016

It would indeed be irony if it was me that said that, however, I didn't say it.

Jun 24, 2016

@Virginia Tech 4ever" that was a cool anecdote from your dad but dude what is your point though? HS dropouts know more about economics/politics than college graduates? Just stop man. You can't believe that and you will find it impossible to convince me of that. Many college graduates may be overly educated but that is better than lacking education. GMG is correct, he didn't say sovereignty was of no concern but he is more worried about tangible things like economic progress. Most economists believe this vote will hinder economic progress. Of course, the uneducated who got whipped up into a nationalist frenzy give no fucks about what some economist thinks so here we are. Russia stronger, China stronger, western Europe weaker geopolitically. Europe weaker economically. But people can now say "we took our country back from those bureaucrats and immigrants" so I guess that is a win.

Jun 24, 2016
BobTheBaker:

@Virginia Tech 4ever that was a cool anecdote from your dad but dude what is your point though? HS dropouts know more about economics/politics than college graduates? Just stop man. You can't believe that and you will find it impossible to convince me of that. Many college graduates may be overly educated but that is better than lacking education. GMG is correct, he didn't say sovereignty was of no concern but he is more worried about tangible things like economic progress. Most economists believe this vote will hinder economic progress. Of course, the uneducated who got whipped up into a nationalist frenzy give no fucks about what some economist thinks so here we are. Russia stronger, China stronger, western Europe weaker geopolitically. Europe weaker economically. But people can now say "we took our country back from those bureaucrats and immigrants" so I guess that is a win.

This might surprise you--MOST COLLEGE STUDENTS KNOW NOTHING ABOUT ECONOMICS OR FINANCIAL MARKETS! A college degree in engineering does NOT qualify you to condescend to a plumber on issues of regulation and national sovereignty. And hell, most economists know nothing about economics or financial markets. If they did they wouldn't be making $65,000/year at their teaching/research positions.

Jun 24, 2016

What do you think is going to happen to the City in the Short, Medium and Long term ? Massive job cuts?

Jun 24, 2016

What many fail to understand is the different priorities and drivers behind voting decisions of the REMAIN and LEAVE parties.
-The REMAIN party focused all arguments on economic outcomes and the negative impact a Brexit would have on the economy.
-The LEAVE party focused all arguments on NON-economic outcomes and factors such as immigration, legislative structure and other variables.
A southern Britton witnessing the immediate impacts of illegal immigration problem everyday WILL NOT vote the same way as the Londoner working in private equity and in a penthouse in south ken.

The worse part of this all is the disgusting smear campaign against the LEAVE voters who have been tagged as racist, xenophobic and uneducated by the REMAIN party. Whether you like it or not, we are in a time of global change where large parts of the population have become fed up-From Trump to Le Pen and from Brexit to Front National and "Make America Great Again". These nationalist movements/uprisings work in cycles and are nothing new. We have begun a new chapter in modern history, but it is not one we have not read before.

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Jun 26, 2016
sophtrading123:

What many fail to understand is the different priorities and drivers behind voting decisions of the REMAIN and LEAVE parties.-The REMAIN party focused all arguments on economic outcomes and the negative impact a Brexit would have on the economy.-The LEAVE party focused all arguments on NON-economic outcomes and factors such as immigration, legislative structure and other variables.A southern Britton witnessing the immediate impacts of illegal immigration problem everyday WILL NOT vote the same way as the Londoner working in private equity and in a penthouse in south ken.

The worse part of this all is the disgusting smear campaign against the LEAVE voters who have been tagged as racist, xenophobic and uneducated by the REMAIN party. Whether you like it or not, we are in a time of global change where large parts of the population have become fed up-From Trump to Le Pen and from Brexit to Front National and "Make America Great Again". These nationalist movements/uprisings work in cycles and are nothing new. We have begun a new chapter in modern history, but it is not one we have not read before.

Finally someone who understands. The both groups just dont understand eachother.

A person working on zero hour contract in a sweatshop like sport direct will have different mentality and priorities
compared to a person who can get a mortgage and has a job whose hours comply with eu regulation.

Jun 24, 2016

@Virginia Tech 4ever" if there is an economic slowdown like most economists predict, the common man you refer to that rose up will be most adversely affected not these liberal elites you hate so much. Of course, again, the common man you refer to was not voting based on economic outcomes but on nationalistic principles, how many times has that led to positive change? In response your response: now we are supposed to listen to hs dropouts about the economy over actual economists b/c the economy is hard to understand? God man you really are flying off the handle on this thread.

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Jun 24, 2016

Is that a fact? You wouldn't know it by this thread with the bitching and complaining about the loss of investment banks and London's financial institutions. Which is it? Who are the London elite really concerned about?

Jun 24, 2016

@Virginia Tech 4ever" you should know that downturns related to financial markets are the worst type of downturn, we learned this from '08. If you think that a detraction of London as a financial center will not contaminate the remainder of the economy then you're delusional.

Jun 24, 2016

Didn't you just insult the collective intelligence of the non-college educated common man? Why on Earth would anyone believe that you fret for the common man's well being should the British economy go south? You and your ilk proved the point in this thread that you don't give a sh*t about common British (or American) people. The London elite are worried about their position as financial capital of the world. (Frankly, they shouldn't be because nothing is going to happen to London in the long-run.)

Jun 24, 2016

This is the same tactic used by MSM prior to the vote, this time it's hoping people encourage parliament to intervene and overrule the proposal. Instead of threatening the worst economic disaster if the country voted leave, now they're saying all businesses will leave London and leave the UK crippled. Of course the libs eat it up.

Everyone knows that economists, especially professors, are overwhelmingly pro-socialism and in this case, globalist. The same people who are arguing with you also destroyed the Trump/Hillary thread by name-calling whenever a non-socialist started talking.

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Jun 24, 2016
gezora:

This is the same tactic used by MSM prior to the vote, this time it's hoping people encourage parliament to intervene and overrule the proposal. Instead of threatening the worst economic disaster if the country voted leave, now they're saying all businesses will leave London and leave the UK crippled. Of course the libs eat it up.

Everyone knows that economists, especially professors, are overwhelmingly pro-socialism and in this case, globalist. The same people who are arguing with you also destroyed the Trump/Hillary thread by name-calling whenever a non-socialist started talking.

These people are so transparent. They can't break my arguments, so they stoop to insulting me personally and anonymously throwing monkey shit at me.

Also, these EU and American leaders/elitists are so transparent. In a threat to the British voters, so unbelievable jackass Obama threatened to put an independent UK at the back of the bus. Now that this has become real, Obama back tracks and pledges that nothing will change with our special relationship with the UK. London financial institutions pounded their fists about exiting the UK, and then when they caught their breath today they back-tracked.

Threats. Idle threats against the UK.

Jun 24, 2016

@Virginia Tech 4ever" Dude this vote potentially hurts the British economy, I generally want ppl to make decisions that will benefit the economy, because a better economy means increased prosperity for everyone. I am not particularly concerned whether the common man is smart or dumb, that is irrelevant. Additionally, as a black man and an immigrant I am well aware that education is inversely correlated with discrimination, forgive me if I am not encouraged by the nationalist frenzies sweeping Europe and America. @gezora most economists are socialists? You cannot be serious. Most economists are libertarians bro.

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Jun 24, 2016

and the S&P just erased all of its gains for 2016.

what a time to be alive, thank god for muni bonds.

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Jun 24, 2016

@Virginia Tech 4ever" your arguments have been awful in this thread and you have "stooped" to much name-calling (liberal pukes?). I will do you the honor of breaking down how terrible your arguments have been.

1.) college educated people should not receive the benefit of the doubt regarding their knowledge because they are overly educated, essentially implying that education does not assist in making better decisions in a democracy (fucking terrible argument).
2.) Old "wise" people made a great decision for sovereignty, ignoring that this was a nationalistic vote and old people are more likely to be nationalistic (read: anti-ppl. from other countries)
3.) "Liberal elites" are just upset they will lose their cushy IB job, ignoring the reality that financial downturns are the worst kind of downturn.
4.) young people are easily influenced by propaganda, ignoring the fact that nationalistic fear-mongering is what the leave campaign relied on to get their base ready to vote.

Jun 24, 2016
BobTheBaker:

@Virginia Tech 4ever your arguments have been awful in this thread and you have "stooped" to much name-calling (liberal pukes?). I will do you the honor of breaking down how terrible your arguments have been.

1.) college educated people should not receive the benefit of the doubt regarding their knowledge because they are overly educated, essentially implying that education does not assist in making better decisions in a democracy (fucking terrible argument).2.) Old "wise" people made a great decision for sovereignty, ignoring that this was a nationalistic vote and old people are more likely to be nationalistic (read: anti-ppl. from other countries)3.) "Liberal elites" are just upset they will lose their cushy IB job, ignoring the reality that financial downturns are the worst kind of downturn.4.) young people are easily influenced by propaganda, ignoring the fact that nationalistic fear-mongering is what the leave campaign relied on to get their base ready to vote.

1) Why should college educated people receive the benefit of the doubt on their positions? That makes no logical sense. What special insight does an engineer have into the financial markets that a plumber doesn't have?

2) You don't even present a rational position to take apart. What the heck is wrong with "nationalism"?

3) That's exactly correct for the people in this thread. I haven't heard a damn thing from anyone about concern for the common man. They are concerned about their own jobs. If that's not apparent then you need to seriously take your head out of the sand.

4) The Leave campaign didn't have access to the British government propaganda machine or the BBC or major media propaganda machine. Amazing that you can't see the obvious slap you in the face.

Jun 24, 2016

This cannot be serious.

1) You think some chav in the North of England understands the potential risks and uncertainties of Brexit as much as someone with a degree? People with higher educatkon are taught by and large to be able to assess information and evidence and come to a reasoned judgment. Just search Brexit vote and educational levels and you will see a very high correlation between the educated and voting to remain.

2) How is nationalism a rational ideology? Lets big up our arbitrarily drawn borders and purport to essentially support the state regardless of what the implications may be on other people. Your pseudo intellectual bullshit is fooling noone. If you think nationalism is a good idea I suggest you bother to read a history book and see where it has led and what other ancillary types of ideologies it has been associated with. The benefits of research and bringing other people in from all over the world has been immense. Look at the number of foreign researchers from literally every country in the world in the UK. Nationalism got you North Korea and fking Venezuela.

3) Wtf is a common man? Secondly you think putting the UKs growth at risk, taking us potentially out of the single market, our largest export market, will create opportunities? You give your argument of how Brexit creates job. People like you hide behind ambiguity, and have literally no arguments to support why Brexit is good for the common man as you put it.

5) What propaganda machine? The Daily Mail and The Sun, the most read newspapers in the UK openly came out in support of leave. Wtf ia your point?

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Jun 24, 2016

How bout less bitching about class warfare and more insight into the impact on our industry? This reads like a comments section from usatoday for chrissakes.

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Jun 24, 2016
Shaino:

How bout less bitching about class warfare and more insight into the impact on our industry? This reads like a comments section from usatoday for chrissakes.

NEWSFLASH: Nobody knows today what the implications are to the financial industry. Nobody. Not even the CEOs of the big banks know right now. We don't even know how long UK exit will take, what the terms will be, if other nations will schedule referendums, etc.

People here have done a WHOLE hell of a lot of talking about matters that they have no idea about.

Jun 24, 2016

And you think putting us in this situation was a good idea? Especially where the merits of this position were dictated in a 5050 referendum which will almost certainly oush us into a recession?

Jun 24, 2016

@Virginia Tech 4ever"
1.) again, this is a terrible argument. Educated people are more likely to get informed (thus making better decisions with their right to vote) regarding politics and topics outside of their immediate course of study, which is why they deserve the benefit of the doubt. Eric the Engineer may be an engineer and not an economist/political scientist but he is far more likely to read the economist/listen to NPR than Pete the Plumber.
2.) There is nothing inherently wrong with nationalism, but you must agree that when people become too nationalistic it can have devastating effects to minorities/immigrants in the form of outright discrimination. Additionally, you framed their vote as some sign of wisdom when it could very well be a function of their predisposition to be exclusionary/discriminatory.
3.) I am not really worried about the people on this thread, a financial downturn could cause them to lose their jobs but most likely they will bounce back. If a recession spills over to main street many of those who voted leave will not bounce back. Again, look at the '08 recession.
4.) while the leave campaign was not supported by mainstream politicians, there was plenty of anti-immigrant propaganda floating around. Additionally, I find it amazing that you claim that the more educated remain voters were influenced by said propaganda, ignoring the reality that the less educated are more susceptible to propaganda.

I forgot about one more terrible argument: economists do not know the economy so we should ignore the majority that say this will lead to an economic downturn for Britain... but I am supposed to believe some HS dropout is more informed about the economic repercussions of his/her leave vote than an economist.

Ugh, I am done here.

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Jun 24, 2016

What if the the well educated are making a decision that best benefits them rather than those at the bottom. Generally speaking a high percentage on immigrants lack education alike that of the lower class of Britain albeit to an even worse standard. The influx of cheap labour and low skilled workers threatens the job prospects of the unskilled British which could be a potential reason for there strong exit vote? It's unlikely that a Syrian refugee has the means to pay for tuition or the education level to compete for a job with the Engineer etc where as he can clean the toilets instead of James who only did his GCSE's.

Jun 24, 2016

I think your first argument does not hold as well as at first glance. It essentially boils down to saying that those people with the power to make a decision about the entire population, may make a decision that benefits some subset of society (themselves) over others. In this case, those with a degree will make decisions that benefit them.

1) Everyone is surely making the decision that benefits them (working class AND educated). Lets assume people actually know what benefits them (this is unlikely and I will address below), given the fact that the working class outnumber those with a degree, flipping your very argument on its head, why should the working class essentially dictate a decision through their superior numbers that will benefit them as opposed to rest of society?

2) If you think the answer is "there is more of them" then clearly that is flawed reasoning. There is no guarantee that people en masse will make a coherent, let alone rational decision. A lot of people didn't even know we were in the EU, yet these same people are voting without any understanding of the implications. Your argument implicitly assumes the working class know that which is best for them. But surely, since we entrust Drs on the basis of their qualifications, to make assessments about our health, it is reasonable to assume that someone with a degree or some sort of competency is better placed to make complex decision such as the economy.

Heres an excerpt:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/i-really-r...
A far more reasonable and common sense approach is to draw a line somewhere. In this case what was suggested was a degree education. I would also suggest perhaps a competency test of some sort.

I agree that the reason for Exit vote is immigration problems for the working class. That much is obvious. But a Brexit is highly unlikely to solve those issues. A lot of immigrants also work in Finance (just go Canary Wharf). You think these folks don't make a contribution to society through the tax they pay?

In fact the chav lounging around most likely has their benefits paid by these Eastern European folks. They have by voting to leave most likely shot themselves in the foot.

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Jun 25, 2016