L/S Credit HF Analyst - Q&ASubscribe
I'm a long-term lurker, infrequent poster on another account. Q&A. Have been reflecting a lot lately on "giving back" and WSO has been huge to me. More interested in talking credit / markets than "my path" or "recruiting" because I only got my jobs via recommendations. 2 years at BB trading floor, been at credit HF for 2.5 now. Spent most of college working 40+ hours for a very thoughtful small family- office PM/former AM PM/II-ranked ER guy. Owe him everything as he forced me to be a real student/historian of the markets. In short about me to get the ball rolling - Credit HF with flexibility across the capital structure / across instruments long/short. Industry generalist - 90% of my time - NA-Domiciled B/CCC HY/Loans/CDS - Other 10% - equities of issuers, deep discount BBB/BBs, EU/EM issues - Because of work experience / family-office PM, it's been commented on by a few people I'm relatively more macro/market-history aware than your average junior analyst - Investor Styles/Personalities I Admire (no particular order): Black/Harris/Rowan, Bass, Druckenmiller, Burry, MBIA-era Ackman, Auerbach, Beal, Burbank Thoughts on Credit/Markets/HFs/Life: 1. I think HY-spreads have hit tights for this cycle, but think non-commodity exposure has room to run. Spreads closed Friday ~750 for HY, ~625 ex-commodities. My target spread would be high 400s for ex-commodities. My HY total return forecast for 2016 in late-2015 was 8%-10%. 2. If I had to guess today, probably shading lower-end. I'm still quite bullish, but shocked how much HY has become an asset class filled with closet oil traders. We're due for a pullback from here though - oil fundamentals don't seem to be getting much better and have to assume banks are a bit more aggressive with redeterminations this spring. This run up was a little overdone. 3. Was actually forecasting a low/mid single-digit S&P return which i still like. 4. Biggest things that worry me at the moment? China, reflexive behavior from Main Street looking at asset prices. Brexit seems unlikely to me, I'm generally more positive on the Fed than most people, I think asset prices moving off of oil is generally stupid and a pretty decent buying opportunity. 5. Biggest lesson to pass on: It's important to like what you do, and who you do it with. But more important is that the other people like the work you do and like being around you too. That solves so many problems in life you wouldn't believe. 6. General impression is that HFs across the board seem to be overrated. But of course, "we're the ones that actually add value". I really enjoy the work though.