Trading really dying?

I know this topic has been hit time and time again. However, I feel after every recession, there's always tons of people saying sell-side trading is dying just to see another great time. Yes, regulation has tightened and the money has definitely decreased, but it seems to me sell-side banks always find a way. There is always the classic debate of IBD vs S&T, but why if everyone thinks S&T is going to die. Thoughts anyone?

 

Its going to be the case of what happens with regulation. 5 years ago I didnt think regulation would have such an impact on sell side trading, I was in the camp similar of what you are thinking, "the banks always find a way". And im sure they will, but for now S&T is a sort of dying biz. I mean you can still make more money than almost any other field given experience level, but its a completely different animal. Tons of businesses are being shut down because they cost too much in terms of capital, sell side flow desks are taking almost no inventory risk and makin their living purely on the bid/offer spread. I mean its still a business, but the best way to sum it up is that the probability of getting that huge upside has decreased, and the probability of the bank turning around and shutting down your desk has increased.

 

I think this is a good way of looking at it. Regulation has definitely been crippling but regulation is also transitory. History has shown that policy is a pendulum and we've probably swung too far on the tightening side with respect to the financial industry. If we see a Republican President/House/Senate I think there's a decent possibility of them rolling back some of the post-crisis regulation put on banks. There's also the possibility that the BBs actually do end up breaking into smaller units in which case they would no longer be faced with Volcker or huge capital ratio requirements.

And as mentioned above, it completely depends on the desk you're on.

 
derivstrading:

Its going to be the case of what happens with regulation. 5 years ago I didnt think regulation would have such an impact on sell side trading, I was in the camp similar of what you are thinking, "the banks always find a way". And im sure they will, but for now S&T is a sort of dying biz. I mean you can still make more money than almost any other field given experience level, but its a completely different animal. Tons of businesses are being shut down because they cost too much in terms of capital, sell side flow desks are taking almost no inventory risk and makin their living purely on the bid/offer spread. I mean its still a business, but the best way to sum it up is that the probability of getting that huge upside has decreased, and the probability of the bank turning around and shutting down your desk has increased.

I've left derivatives a few months ago after an 8 year career to go back and do an MBA to get into something else. So yea - I believe it's dying. I didn't want to take the chance of being 40 stuck on the sell side and losing my job with no where to go or no skills to reconvert.

 

Thanks guys! I really appreciate the addition to this conversation.

For a little more background, I have received an offer in S&T from a BB. Last year, I was really excited about sell-side trading: the markets, the pace, and the money (of course). I ultimately received an offer from my first choice and I was very exciting. It ranks 1st on the street (don't want too much detail). But, now, I am worried I am going into a field that is dying and may have few exit ops. Not saying I wanted to exit, but if it is a dying industry, would be nice to to apply my skillset elsewhere. It makes me want to switch to IB, but there a very few openings now.

With that said, Anonymoose , is there really a good probability of that happening? As a young college student, I simply want to go somewhere where my future is bright (call me optimistic)

 

hey mate I am also going with a BB in s&t, first job out of school. Look I worry about this too, but I try not to think about this too much because:

  1. For a first markets job, it's a really good job.
  2. Looking to learn as much as I can. First few years skill set developed can still transfer to other divisions/industries.
  3. Trading will always exist, in one form or the other.
  4. It's a bit silly worrying about the industry trends when we are in our twenties and just starting our careers, just have fun! You worked your ass off for this. It's not going to disappear overnight.
  5. I will worry about which more profitable desks to move towards once I am a few years in.
“Everything's coming up Milhouse!”
 
dontbugme:

Thanks guys! I really appreciate the addition to this conversation.

For a little more background, I have received an offer in S&T from a BB. Last year, I was really excited about sell-side trading: the markets, the pace, and the money (of course). I ultimately received an offer from my first choice and I was very exciting. It ranks 1st on the street (don't want too much detail). But, now, I am worried I am going into a field that is dying and may have few exit ops. Not saying I wanted to exit, but if it is a dying industry, would be nice to to apply my skillset elsewhere. It makes me want to switch to IB, but there a very few openings now.

With that said, @Anonymoose , is there really a good probability of that happening? As a young college student, I simply want to go somewhere where my future is bright (call me optimistic)

I'm joining BB S&T in July as well. Worst case scenario, you can put in 3-4 years on the desk then leave for a Top 15 MBA and switch to IB, consulting, etc. The only thing S&T really bars you from is immediate exit into PE/VC, but after a post-MBA IB stint, it's doable...more difficult, but doable.
 

Im going to echo/expand on millhouse's points. Its still great as a first job because a) it does carry prestige both in terms of trading and the BB name on the CV. Getting a job in FO at a top BB gives future employers/schools a solid reference b) you will learn how to deal under pressure, think analytically and rationally. This is sometimes not talked about, but you will also learn how to put things in perspective. You will learn that business/money is just a game, and it allows for you to not be that stressed about day to day things. This can work agaisnt you as you find a lot of issues in other jobs mundane. If something isnt going to have a huge immediate PNl effect you sort of discount it in your brain. C) it still pays great for a first job, and should allow you to build up a buffer of savings so that in your mid to alte 20's you can take more risks if that is what you are inclined to do. Now some people adjust to the salary and you have tons of guys living paycheck to paycheck, and yes the pay isnt amazing (a lot of kids have delusions about junior pay tbh), and you wont be driving a ferrari after 3 years, but if you are somewhat frugal you can at least set aside a buffer so if a risky opportunity comes along you can try it. After 5 years any FO junior should have at least a 100k saved up in the bank at a minimum (and ofc with upside). I doubt there are many jobs that allow you to achieve that straight out of undergrad. Remember, at 26 you are still very young, and if you have a cash buffer you can take some risks if they come along and feel right. d) lets be honest finance in general has always been there and probably always will be, but just like anything its fluid and you need to adapt. But finance pay will tend to be higher than most other industries. The best way to put it, if you are an oyster fisherman you will probably eat a lot of oysters...

 

Same here. I am constantly concern about this as I will be joining BB S&T for FT. To the experienced traders in the group, what are the other alternatives to trading if we are interested in markets? I know HF is an option but sell-side S&T is a pipeline to HF right? From where I see, there are no other options if I want to be involved in the markets, thus BB S&T. Maybe you guys can enlighten me on this.

 

Manufacturing as a % of US GDP has barely changed since the 1980s. Manufacturing as a % of US employment has dropped by more than half.

You say that the industry will find a way - sure, but a way to what? The industry will find a way to protect its profitability; an in environment of declining revenue, the only way to protect your profits is to cut costs even further. Technological advances enable and accelerate the shift from numerous S&T jobs to machines.

The truth is you're the weak. And I'm the tyranny of evil men. But I'm tryin', Ringo. I'm tryin' real hard to be the shepherd.
 

Milhouse Van Houten wilder01 Thanks for the encouragement. It's good to hear I am not the only one with this concern. I was a little dismayed as I picked S&T over an IBD offer and, to be honest, it would be upsetting to exit to IBD after MBA if I originally had an offer. I would love to hear some more information on S&T to HF as ZenEcon asked.

derivstrading Thank you so much for your extensive response. It is very good to hear encouraging words. As Milhouse said, yes it is very worrying as a young college student going into a career. Although my worries are definitely still there, it's good to hear all the pros and how privileged I am to have this position.

 

I worked on a MM equity trading desk for a year. The 2 senior sales guys agreed it is a dying business. Back in 2007-2008 one of the senior guys told me he was making 50% more than he is now. Back then all banks used to give a commission % of the book of business each sales guy had.

They did away with that and his pay suffered immensely and hasn't climbed back since.

I thought I wanted to do institutional equity sales because I love the stock market.

The reality is, when I got inside and saw the business it wasn't what I thought it was. I thought it was going to be more idea based calling PM's and giving them pitches. Come to find out, at least at the desk I was on, most PM's didn't care about their stock ideas and the sales guys rarely if ever (2 of them never did the whole time I was there and 1 of them only a couple times) called a PM telling him with strong conviction to buy, sell or short something.

All they did was summarize the analysts research and give them the analysts' opinions over the phone.

Our business got paid mainly on corporate access and access to the analysts. Basically, the sales guys chaperoned the management teams / analysts and brought them around to meet with the buy side. And our research provided some value to PM's as well, but the whole time I was there I could count on 1 hand how many times a sales guy called a PM and tried to get him excited about an idea.

Also, all the traders did at the desk I was on was execute orders for the buy side. The whole time I was there neither trader ever called a PM and tried to get him to pull the trigger on something. They were paid just for execution only. And commissions on that are extremely small - between .02 - .04 a share. They had a great gig because they left at 1-2PM PST every day, but equity S&T to me from firsthand experience of sitting on a trading desk for a year with 3 sales guys and 2 traders, is not the place to be.

I got my licenses, moved on and am a structured products analyst at a bigger bank.

I don't know what it's like at BB's maybe a bit different, definitely wasn't what I thought it was...

twitter: @StoicTrader1 instagram: @StoicTrader1
 
BEAST MODE TRADER:

I worked on a MM equity trading desk for a year. The 2 senior sales guys agreed it is a dying business. Back in 2007-2008 one of the senior guys told me he was making 50% more than he is now. Back then all banks used to give a commission % of the book of business each sales guy had.

They did away with that and his pay suffered immensely and hasn't climbed back since.

I thought I wanted to do institutional equity sales because I love the stock market.

The reality is, when I got inside and saw the business it wasn't what I thought it was. I thought it was going to be more idea based calling PM's and giving them pitches. Come to find out, at least at the desk I was on, most PM's didn't care about their stock ideas and the sales guys rarely if ever (2 of them never did the whole time I was there and 1 of them only a couple times) called a PM telling him with strong conviction to buy, sell or short something.

All they did was summarize the analysts research and give them the analysts' opinions over the phone.

Our business got paid mainly on corporate access and access to the analysts. Basically, the sales guys chaperoned the management teams / analysts and brought them around to meet with the buy side. And our research provided some value to PM's as well, but the whole time I was there I could count on 1 hand how many times a sales guy called a PM and tried to get him excited about an idea.

Also, all the traders did at the desk I was on was execute orders for the buy side. The whole time I was there neither trader ever called a PM and tried to get him to pull the trigger on something. They were paid just for execution only. And commissions on that are extremely small - between .02 - .04 a share. They had a great gig because they left at 1-2PM PST every day, but equity S&T to me from firsthand experience of sitting on a trading desk for a year with 3 sales guys and 2 traders, is not the place to be.

I got my licenses, moved on and am a structured products analyst at a bigger bank.

I don't know what it's like at BB's maybe a bit different, definitely wasn't what I thought it was...

Quite accurate description. I can add that derivs trading do also trade based on vol, not just spreads/execution.

 

Also, as I read this thread, I think some people in here are confused about what a sell-side equity trader does. Where I was, all they did was execute trades for the buy-side. They are paid for execution only and take no position in the market or make any decisions based off what they think the market will do. Much different than trading your personal account or prop trading. This is from my first hand experience, spending about 15-16 months on two different equity trading desks...

twitter: @StoicTrader1 instagram: @StoicTrader1
 

You are right sir, I don't. I know for a fact the traders I worked with didn't do anything but execute for the buy side, I sat with them multiple times and we talked about what they did.

Would be great if you could elaborate. Are you an equity trader? I would like to learn if there is anything I didn't witness there. Are there institutional equity traders with "inventories" that are making moves to do things with their personal P&L? I thought that didn't exist anymore.

So I would love to learn about what you are talking about there and I'm sure others here would as well. Thanks

twitter: @StoicTrader1 instagram: @StoicTrader1
 
BEAST MODE TRADER:

Also, as I read this thread, I don't think people in here understand what a sell-side trader does. All they do is execute trades for the buy-side. They are paid for execution only and take no position in the market or make any decisions based off what they think the market will do. Much different than trading your personal account or prop trading. This is from my first hand experience, spending about 15-16 months on two different equity trading desks...

First it depends on the product; some aren't affected by Volcker Rule. Even if it is, the trader still has discretion as to whether or not they should hedge, their axes, etc.
 

I was talking about equities. But I would love to know how it differs in the various asset classes. I assumed it was the same. But I could definitely be wrong.

twitter: @StoicTrader1 instagram: @StoicTrader1
 

I think most of the people on this post have had experience in sell side trading whether it's FT or SA. While I agree @BEAST MODE TRADER with what you are saying about the role being mainly execution, I believe it is still possible to take a position view. So I am inclined to say that in FICC, idea generation and taking the position is still there. It may be hard to show it directly through your PnL per se, but I know traders who still take small positions based on their market outlook.

If sell-side trading is no longer a training ground for those of us are interested in going to the buyside later on, where is?

 

I agreed with GoodBread. The desk I am on has inventory and takes views. They buy cheap in order to predict customer demand or short rich assuming they can buy it back later. Although Volcker has largely affected the volume/timeline of this kind of activity, I think it still exists.

Also, to clarify I'm in FICC.

Honestly. I'm pretty unknowledgeable or I wouldn't be posting here, right?

I thought sell-side trading fed to buyside. If not, I guess research?

 

Even in cash equities, you can put on risk positions. I've spoken to/shadowed a lot of people in S&T and the environment and pay is a lot different now compared to pre-crisis. I would not recommend any of the areas in cash equities (sales, sales trading or trading) except research (because you actually get transferable skills. However, I tend to think that within the bank, research is not treated as well as S&T in terms of pay etc.). I also think IG and HY credit is difficult because of the capital constraints. Regulation is definitely hitting hard.

Tbh I think you should try and sit in an area that your bank is strong in. From what I've heard, this will be better for your tenure and future opportunities. I mean most trading desks can exit to the buy-side, albeit in different roles (e.g. Distressed to credit funds, convertibles to convertible arbitrage, macro products to macro funds etc.), and being at a bank that is top in a certain product will position you well.

I'm quite interested in the replies in this thread because this is the exact dilemma I have - IBD or S&T. I see what derivstrader is saying about S&T being a good job but for me, the question is whether IBD might be better.

 

Dece Definitely thought about AM. Seems like a great place to be. I definitely do not want to go to wealth. But Asset Management would be cool

I do love the fast pace, the culture, and the environment. Additionally, my desk using both fundamentals and micro which is why I chose it.

With that said, I am young. I am open minded. However, a lot of opportunities are closed for Full-time. So it's less about me being set on trading, but more like, I am now here. If that makes sense.

 

As some people have mentioned already, this topic is overblown time and time again... From what I've seen, the two biggest impediments right now are (over) regulation and a lack of volatility.

Let me start off by saying, I think there is some confusion about what a sell-side trader is. A sell-side trader is a market-maker and will always be taking risk. When you trade with a client, you immediately take the opposite side of the trade. Regardless of what I trade, I'm always obligated to make a market. If I get my bid gets hit time and time again, I'm suddenly long whatever I'm trading. What you decide to do with the position is where your ability as a trader comes in. If you don't want the position, you hedge it immediately. If you like your position, then you might decide not to hedge it. Of course, there's all of that space between. What has changed in this scenario is that traders might not be allowed to take as much risk as before. However, it's basically impossible to distinguish a "hedge" and a "position" which is why you're seeing some many delays with trading regulation.

There are also "sell-side traders" who are not market-makers who are simply agency traders. That's where you simply are executing a trade for a client at the best possible price and get paid for doing just that - that's not what we're talking about.

Some regulation makes sense as it has made many of the larger banks become more efficient with their capital. Businesses that don't make sense from a ROE point of view are gone and that's how it should be. There's no doubt that many of the banks before the crisis were unnecessarily bloated and large. However, some regulation has actually had the opposite effect from what was intended. There have been several pieces on FT recently about how regulation has actually negatively affected the market. One example is that because dealers are less willing to hold inventory, some bond markets run the risk of becoming illiquid. Another example is that banks are unwilling to enter into lending agreements (repo) with emerging market corporations which has only stressed emerging markets even more. What I think we will see is that some regulation will eventually be eased in the future. When? I don't know, but we're already seeing some of the downsides of regulation. It probably won't be until the mainstream media turns to something new to focus on (maybe tech?)...

Outside of regulation, I think the lack of volatility is a bigger issue. Hopefully, this changes soon... Since 2008 (7 years now), rates have not moved (0) and the equity market has largely gone in one direction (up). It's pretty hard to make money when there's little reason for your clients to trade frequently especially real money accounts. Of course it's not this simple, but I really think that once we see some more volatility things will pick up. This is especially vital for FICC. As an example, I know of equity trading desks on the sell-side that made upwards of $50mm on "Black Monday" in August.

As for the common argument of technology driving S&T out of business... Here's some food for thought. HFT saw its peak during the crisis. You can say that the market has been over-saturated and you're seeing consolidation in the industry. HFT volumes have actually been declining year after year at a steady pace since 2009 in the equity market which is one of the few markets that is liquid enough to support it. You've seen multiple dark pools close down; exchanges like IEX are picking up steam. I'd do go even far as to say, equity markets have largely seen the peak of technology at least for the foreseeable future. Many banks have already significantly cut down their cash equity trading businesses to a handful traders that in my opinion will always be needed.

As for other markets, it does makes sense for them to become more electronic. For example, there's little reason why corporate bonds should still be traded on the phone. Should they be traded on the screen more? Sure. But will computers suddenly start trading corporate bonds anytime soon? Probably not, might never see it. There's not enough liquidity to begin with, and with the added regulation, technology replacing humans is even more unlikely.

 

As some people have mentioned already, this topic is overblown time and time again... From what I've seen, the two biggest impediments right now are (over) regulation and a lack of volatility.

Let me start off by saying, I think there is some confusion about what a sell-side trader is. A sell-side trader is a market-maker and will always be taking risk. When you trade with a client, you immediately take the opposite side of the trade. Regardless of what I trade, I'm always obligated to make a market. If I get my bid gets hit time and time again, I'm suddenly long whatever I'm trading. What you decide to do with the position is where your ability as a trader comes in. If you don't want the position, you hedge it immediately. If you like your position, then you might decide not to hedge it. Of course, there's all of that space between. What has changed in this scenario is that traders might not be allowed to take as much risk as before. However, it's basically impossible to distinguish a "hedge" and a "position" which is why you're seeing some many delays with trading regulation.

There are also "sell-side traders" who are not market-makers who are simply agency traders. That's where you simply are executing a trade for a client at the best possible price and get paid for doing just that - that's not what we're talking about.

Some regulation makes sense as it has made many of the larger banks become more efficient with their capital. Businesses that don't make sense from a ROE point of view are gone and that's how it should be. There's no doubt that many of the banks before the crisis were unnecessarily bloated and large. However, some regulation has actually had the opposite effect from what was intended. There have been several pieces on FT recently about how regulation has actually negatively affected the market. One example is that because dealers are less willing to hold inventory, some bond markets run the risk of becoming illiquid. Another example is that banks are unwilling to enter into lending agreements (repo) with emerging market corporations which has only stressed emerging markets even more. What I think we will see is that some regulation will eventually be eased in the future. When? I don't know, but we're already seeing some of the downsides of regulation. It probably won't be until the mainstream media turns to something new to focus on (maybe tech?)...

Outside of regulation, I think the lack of volatility is a bigger issue. Hopefully, this changes soon... Since 2008 (7 years now), rates have not moved (0) and the equity market has largely gone in one direction (up). It's pretty hard to make money when there's little reason for your clients to trade frequently especially real money accounts. Of course it's not this simple, but I really think that once we see some more volatility things will pick up. This is especially vital for FICC. As an example, I know of equity trading desks on the sell-side that made upwards of $50mm on "Black Monday" in August.

As for the common argument of technology driving S&T out of business... Here's some food for thought. HFT saw its peak during the crisis. You can say that the market has been over-saturated and you're seeing consolidation in the industry. HFT volumes have actually been declining year after year at a steady pace since 2009 in the equity market which is one of the few markets that is liquid enough to support it. You've seen multiple dark pools close down; exchanges like IEX are picking up steam. I'd do go even far as to say, equity markets have largely seen the peak of technology at least for the foreseeable future. Many banks have already significantly cut down their cash equity trading businesses to a handful traders that in my opinion will always be needed.

As for other markets, it does makes sense for them to become more electronic. For example, there's little reason why corporate bonds should still be traded on the phone. Should they be traded on the screen more? Sure. But will computers suddenly start trading corporate bonds anytime soon? Probably not, might never see it. There's not enough liquidity to begin with, and with the added regulation, technology replacing humans is even more unlikely.

 
Best Response

As some people have mentioned already, this topic is overblown time and time again... From what I've seen, the two biggest impediments right now are (over) regulation and a lack of volatility.

Let me start off by saying, I think there is some confusion about what a sell-side trader is. A sell-side trader is a market-maker and will always be taking risk. When you trade with a client, you immediately take the opposite side of the trade. Regardless of what I trade, I'm always obligated to make a market. If I get my bid gets hit time and time again, I'm suddenly long whatever I'm trading. What you decide to do with the position is where your ability as a trader comes in. If you don't want the position, you hedge it immediately. If you like your position, then you might decide not to hedge it. Of course, there's all of that space between. What has changed in this scenario is that traders might not be allowed to take as much risk as before. However, it's basically impossible to distinguish a "hedge" and a "position" which is why you're seeing some many delays with trading regulation.

There are also "sell-side traders" who are not market-makers who are simply agency traders. That's where you simply are executing a trade for a client at the best possible price and get paid for doing just that - that's not what we're talking about.

Some regulation makes sense as it has made many of the larger banks become more efficient with their capital. Businesses that don't make sense from a ROE point of view are gone and that's how it should be. There's no doubt that many of the banks before the crisis were unnecessarily bloated and large. However, some regulation has actually had the opposite effect from what was intended. There have been several pieces on FT recently about how regulation has actually negatively affected the market. One example is that because dealers are less willing to hold inventory, some bond markets run the risk of becoming illiquid. Another example is that banks are unwilling to enter into lending agreements (repo) with emerging market corporations which has only stressed emerging markets even more. What I think we will see is that some regulation will eventually be eased in the future. When? I don't know, but we're already seeing some of the downsides of regulation. It probably won't be until the mainstream media turns to something new to focus on (maybe tech?)...

Outside of regulation, I think the lack of volatility is a bigger issue. Hopefully, this changes soon... Since 2008 (7 years now), rates have not moved (0) and the equity market has largely gone in one direction (up). It's pretty hard to make money when there's little reason for your clients to trade frequently especially real money accounts. Of course it's not this simple, but I really think that once we see some more volatility things will pick up. This is especially vital for FICC. As an example, I know of equity trading desks on the sell-side that made upwards of $50mm on "Black Monday" in August.

As for the common argument of technology driving S&T out of business... Here's some food for thought. HFT saw its peak during the crisis. You can say that the market has been over-saturated and you're seeing consolidation in the industry. HFT volumes have actually been declining year after year at a steady pace since 2009 in the equity market which is one of the few markets that is liquid enough to support it. You've seen multiple dark pools close down; exchanges like IEX are picking up steam. I'd do go even far as to say, equity markets have largely seen the peak of technology at least for the foreseeable future. You've also seen the downside to HFT. Even recently with "Black Monday", you saw certain stocks that went from $30 to $6 (trades executed) then back to $30. You can bet that algorithm was a disaster. When liquidity disappears, HFT becomes very vulnerable. Many banks have already significantly cut down their cash equity trading businesses to a handful traders that in my opinion will always be needed.

As for other markets, it does makes sense for them to become more electronic. For example, there's little reason why corporate bonds should still be traded on the phone. Should they be traded on the screen more? Sure. But will computers suddenly start trading corporate bonds anytime soon? Probably not, might never see it. There's not enough liquidity to begin with, and with the added regulation, technology replacing humans is even more unlikely.

 

Personally I don't see myself growing a career in finance (especially bank). Today you really need to have a pretty clear idea of what path your career is going to take . Everyone wants to do finance because everyone is pretty clear-cut that you can make tons of money. The labour market is oversupplied with students which doesn't match the few FO/MO jobs available : if you did not attend the right school, have the right connections and don't have a passion for what you are doing (when I say passion I mean daily market research and news lurking plussome virtual/real personal account trading) it's not worth it because you will either not make it or get stuck in a boring computer job for the rest of your life due to the lack of exit ops for BO (or even MO) jobs. I don't have an ivy league/target school pedigree but if I were I would gladly opt for other industries such as management consulting or tech.

 

Isn't there some wiggle room for banks in treasuries and other gov't securities like municipal bonds, etc? Seeing as how there's a lot of volume in that market and it's done through the phone instead of the screen, is there more edge in those markets + ability to take risk at a bank?

 
jackblack2129:

Isn't there some wiggle room for banks in treasuries and other gov't securities like municipal bonds, etc? Seeing as how there's a lot of volume in that market and it's done through the phone instead of the screen, is there more edge in those markets + ability to take risk at a bank?

Treasuries and munis are both exempt from Volcker rule, so yes.
 

jackblack2129 : You are right however the reality is that if you trade treasuries, munis, corps at a bank in this rate environment, you will find it hard to make money because rates are so low, it's hard to get a buyside trader to do anything. So in theory, you have more leeway, but in reality, when the 10 year note moves to below 2.50 yield, you will find that interest in what you have to sell if you're in s&t drops dramatically. Just my two cents.

 

A lot of misinformation in this thread, just to clear things up:

-Sellside trading desk still have inventory risk to manage, its not just execution (maybe on pure cash desks thats the case) but with anything derivatives based there will be inventory. However, inventory levels kept are much much smaller and dealers just dont take the same amount of risk, and naturally that hurts the amount of money you make. Sell side desks are suffering.

-Sellside sales: as the guy mentioned above in the MM probably applies to BBs as well. Sales really isnt about talking ideas with PMs, lets be honest. The best sales guys do bring a lot of value via ideas, but there are only very few of those.

-Buyside training ground: tbh sellside trading isn't a great training ground for buyside unless you mean an execution role. For an investing role for sellside trading its either a) you get in at a very junior level or b) you go to a shop to do the same product, i.e. global macro/structured credit etc etc. For the majority of buyside roles you are better off doing corporate finance/PE in terms of fundamental investing.

 
derivstrading:

A lot of misinformation in this thread, just to clear things up:

-Sellside trading desk still have inventory risk to manage, its not just execution (maybe on pure cash desks thats the case) but with anything derivatives based there will be inventory. However, inventory levels kept are much much smaller and dealers just dont take the same amount of risk, and naturally that hurts the amount of money you make. Sell side desks are suffering.

-Sellside sales: as the guy mentioned above in the MM probably applies to BBs as well. Sales really isnt about talking ideas with PMs, lets be honest. The best sales guys do bring a lot of value via ideas, but there are only very few of those.

-Buyside training ground: tbh sellside trading isn't a great training ground for buyside unless you mean an execution role. For an investing role for sellside trading its either a) you get in at a very junior level or b) you go to a shop to do the same product, i.e. global macro/structured credit etc etc. For the majority of buyside roles you are better off doing corporate finance/PE in terms of fundamental investing.

This. Alot of misinformation and freaking out in this thread lol.

1st- trading has been in a 'rut' since about 2007. This isnt some new phenomena

2nd- Dying? No. Slowing down? Absolutely. Trading (I am referring to FICC) will always be around. And certain products (e.g. credit) cannot be swapped with computers. What IS occurring are book sizes and bonuses getting trimmed substantially.

A trader in 2005 may have had a 100mln book, with the opportunity to make 5-10% of his PNL via bonus. Now a days, his book is closer to 50mln-75mln and his bonus is 1%-5%. Which, honestly, is still a great opportunity to make ALOT of $$$. However we are no longer in the days of traders walking home with $10mln at year end. With limited opportunities to make huge bonuses, fewer senior guys are moving around. With fewer seniors moving around , its taking much longer for juniors to get a bigger book. This was my case as a jr. trader on a FICC desk.

3rd: Trading HAS NEVER been about exit opps. Good traders have always had two dominant traits 1.) enjoying markets 2.) enjoying making $$$. That's it. No interest in closing deals, managing groups, or building a business. In my case, I realized that although #2 was very important to me, I enjoyed optionality over #1. After realizing this, I made the decision to get some desk analyst exp and made the move to an AM (working toward a HF).

"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies."
 

Other than a basic understanding of the business model in FICC and the fact that it dwarfs the equity market in size, I don't have much experience. I follow bonds daily and how interest rates move everyday, but I am not sure how much it differs from equity S&T.

I posted before OP clarified he was going into FICC.

So you are a FICC trader correct?

How does it differ from equity institutional trading?

Do you have a personal P&L at all? Is there any discretion? Are you calling PM's trying to get them to place transactions etc or is it mostly execution based?

I am very interested in learning more about how FICC S&T differs from my account in equities posted above. I was actually contacted by a recruiter for a Fixed Income Institutional Sales position. How much does the S&T in FICC where you are at differ from what I posted as my experience in equity S&T?

Would really appreciate your insight, as I have barely any insight into FICC S&T? And I am sure this would help other WSO monkeys as well. Thanks!

twitter: @StoicTrader1 instagram: @StoicTrader1
 

I can answer from my limited experience with my product which is MBS. A lot of what we trade is not super liquid product. That means that we can't just buy a bond and then immediately sell it. We also can't fully hedge the position because there's no exact hedge for the type of MBS we trade. MBS have credit risk, rate risk, and convexity risk. That means we need at least 3 different instruments to hedge out all of our exposure, and even then we have basis exposure. And because things don't trade very often, we'll have some bonds on our book for weeks or even months. This allows us to take relatively strong views on what we think is cheap. If a client calls us and offers a bond we particularly like, we'll give him a good bid for it and then keep it for awhile after hedging some of our exposure with the expectation of earning carry or having it tighten against whatever it is spread to. I'm an analyst so I don't know nearly as much as a lot of people on this site, but as you can see a lot of products are a VERY long way from just buying on behalf of clients or taking a position only to exit it moments later. We can take long term views without violating volcker because it would be very rare if not impossible to buy a bond from a client and sell it at a profit the same day.

 

I just wanted to say thank you all for the well-written responses. This has truly been an enlightening post and I feel a lot more confident going into FICC trading now.

A quick question for Anonymoose , when you say top BB, people often refer to GS/MS/JPM as these are the general "Banking" rankings. However, when you say top 3, do you mean by product (Ie MS FI vs MS Equities)? Or by S&T shop. As I believe those rankings would be largely different (JPM/GS/BAML/Citi). Would MBA program look at what division as well I imagine?

As for some interim conclusions, it seems to me, from these posts, that FICC trading has definitely declined. However, with rising rates and (hopefully) different/less regulation, better days for sell-side trading may come. Again, I want to thank everyone for commenting and adding their insight and I hope more continue to do so.

 

My opinion is that honestly MBA programs probably won't know that some banks are better than others in trading. This is really the only case where brand name matters in S&T. When I say top 3 I mean JPM/MS/GS. That isn't to say those are the best banks for trading as you're right it largely varies by product, but people outside of the markets world won't know that.

 

It's pretty tough to get into a top mba program as a trader, even if it is bulge bracket. But having GS/MS/JPM on your resume always helps. From an admissions standpoint, I don't think the product really matters too much since adcom don't know the difference; all they care about is the company pedigree, your career trajectory, and your leadership potential. However, product does matter a lot if you do go to b-school and are trying to leverage your s&t background to get back into finance. If you did cash equities, not too many exit opps unless you do banking or leave finance altogether. If you worked in more complex products such as structured products, credit, distressed debt trading, high yield, etc., that leaves the room open for a variety of research roles in FI at a large mutual fund, portfolio management at PIMCO, distressed debt at a hedge fund, credit research, etc.

 

What is the rationale that regulation will loosen up again (in the near-mid term horizon i.e. not multiple decades)? I don't know if I buy that (who knows really) and I could make the argument that if you find a seat in equities you will be safer over the next 5 years than FICC in that you would see less of an impact from any potential further growth in capital requirements. BB equity sales/trading has been painted too negatively in this thread from what I've seen. I do agree that it is somewhat limited in exit ops though I have seen people move into ER from the trading floor here and there.

 
bigblue3908:

What is the rationale that regulation will loosen up again (in the near-mid term horizon i.e. not multiple decades)? I don't know if I buy that (who knows really) and I could make the argument that if you find a seat in equities you will be safer over the next 5 years than FICC in that you would see less of an impact from any potential further growth in capital requirements. BB equity sales/trading has been painted too negatively in this thread from what I've seen. I do agree that it is somewhat limited in exit ops though I have seen people move into ER from the trading floor here and there.

Problem is that you are also probably safer from getting a big bonus in equities as well ha.

There is a big focus on FICC on this forum, so probably makes sense to give my 2c on the state of equities.

The cash side of things is boring and commoditized. If you are a sales guy its mostly just pitching equity research to clients and trading wise its very execution based.

Flow derivatives are interesting in my opinion but volumes arent anything to write home about, the days of easy money are largely over. Problem with equity options is that you tend to have great years when stuff blows up (as you generally run long vol). Problem is that everyone else does shit so your bonus is shit anyways.

Exotic derivatives: this business can print money, and I mean REALLY print. Problem is that most upper management considers this franchise pnl (i.e. that desk would make money whether you are there or not, whcih is largely true), and pay reflects that.

 

My thing with exotics is I would guess the spreads are pretty wide but how many players are there really in that market? I.E. if you wanted to go to a hedge fund that traded that, how many hedge funds out there have guys trading digitals/caps/floors/barriers and all that jazz? I would think it's only good at the bank. Which leads me to what I think is obvious...wouldn't the issue of choosing a product that has a good future be a double-edged sword or balancing act between liquidity and illiquidity? Like equities is super deep but spreads are super thin. Lots of players in that market and places to move to. Something like exotics is spreads wide but not a lot of players in that market. Seems like the best product to get into would be one that balances between liquidity and margins. Yes, no?

 

Also, I dont reallly understand why kids are debating between IBD and S&T. They are completely different careers, the only similarity is that its in the same industry and the same company name is on the door. If you are worried that S&T has bad exit opps then S&T is probably not for you, especially if you are thinking about whether you could get back into IBD. The natural exit opp for someone in S&T is much more entrepreneurial. Most traders I know that have transitioned to other careers look to go down the entrepreneur route because there is a lot of similarities. I odnt think i have ever seen someone try and go from trading to IBD.

Personally, I dont understand how anyone would do IBD.

 
derivstrading:

Also, I dont reallly understand why kids are debating between IBD and S&T. They are completely different careers, the only similarity is that its in the same industry and the same company name is on the door. If you are worried that S&T has bad exit opps then S&T is probably not for you, especially if you are thinking about whether you could get back into IBD. The natural exit opp for someone in S&T is much more entrepreneurial. Most traders I know that have transitioned to other careers look to go down the entrepreneur route because there is a lot of similarities. I odnt think i have ever seen someone try and go from trading to IBD.

Personally, I dont understand how anyone would do IBD.

Agree with you to a certain extent, but I have a seen a few analysts move from S&T to IBD (granted they were sales, not trading). Additionally, I don't think it's too out of the question to transition from S&T to MBA then to a capital markets IBD role.
 

Well I don't see a problem with considering both IBD and S&T - I mean a lot of the areas within S&T are very different from each other too. I think a lot of people can be suited for both S&T and IBD and so it is worthwhile trying to figure out which one is preferable.

What is trading flow equity derivatives like? I spoke to a flow derivs trader and he said he only did call and put options and variance swaps - does the learning start to flatten out pretty quickly? What keeps it interesting?

 

lots of great ideas in here, yet I would be wary of missing the trees for the forest.

we all know these trends are fundamentally unknowable. most certainly the FICC securities business is moving in the same direction as equities—more technology, more efficiency, so on—and that regulation has hurt the prop business but who is to know where it is headed.

two decades ago most people couldn't have predicted the sweeping changes that disrupted the equities business, but they also couldn't have predicted that the hedge fund industry would grow enormously, providing a new source of jobs and trading flows to the street.

you can never pick these trends, and more importantly what you care about most of all is the choices you are making in getting your career started today. some considerations:

  1. far beyond these secular changes the FICC markets will be most impacted by the cyclical. Forget the ten year trends, the question is when this next bubble bursts, what will be the job and regulatory impacts? Again, this is unknowable, so I would focus little on either of these trends.

  2. this isn't about the business, it is about your career. What do you want to do? What gives you the right start? you're not thinking about the next 30 years of your life, but getting your career started in the right way. pick a job that maximizes your optionality, that equips you with great skills and relationships, and is a launching pad for the next phase of your career.

3, what are you comparing it to? a FICC S&T job is nothing like a job in IB or a job working for Google. It's not a question of whether S&T is dying or not, but what do you want to every day do? Who do you want to be surrounded by? What types of things do you want to work on? Focus less on the big sweeping changes and more on what career is right for you.

  1. you could assert WS as a whole is dying business, as the career is arguably less lucrative than it used to be. But it's still an incredible place to get your career started. And I would encourage you to see this question more in a 2-3 year timeframe.
Former banker and investor, advisor to senior Wall Street pros. Learn more at geoffblades.com
 

Note that a lot of what college kids call "exit opps", in reality is an organic process that develops over time via the skills and network you develop. Trust me, people move across roles, products, industries all the time. A lot of IB recruiting mentality puts students in these boxes that you think you need to fit into. Leave your mind open. The best way to progress a career is not via fixed steps, but by always being on the lookout for opportunities and taking advantage of the right ones when they come along and feel right. Sometimes you might have to take a couple stpes back to make 10 stpes forward, sometimes you will need to learn new skills on the fly, its all part of it, the great unknown.

 

Couldn't agree with this more. I know the industry has changed over the last 10-20 years, but part of my BB training program was having senior people from the bank come and talk to us. Every single one of them (and I actually mean every single one) worked in at least one other line of business than their current one and in at least one other office (typically in another country). They all had completely different paths to where they ended up. My experience has been that this is also true for less senior people I've met at the bank. It's not like you have a set path. The important thing is doing something that you have the potential to excel at, where you're challenged, paid to your satisfaction, learn something, and most importantly enjoy doing enough to outperform those who are just doing it for the money / exit opps.

 

It's just that recruiters and hiring managers in finance want someone that fits an exact mold unless I go back to entry level and take steps back. If it weren't the case, people wouldn't go back to MBA school or worry about target universities. The competition is tough for every desirable opening in finance. What are the most natural paths from sell-side FX trading that values and utilizes this background?

 

derivstrading is truly bang on pretty much. I will give a perspective on commodities side of things.

Commodities is very likely one of the hardest hit areas based on new regulation, there is massive scrunity on major firms now when dealing with certain customers. As well financing costs have gone stupid high on all exchanges and will continue to do so, exchange will never ever take on systemic risk. When I started in this business in 2008, no one understood working capital, no one understood backoffice costs etc...Now I feel like every week I am in some discussion around of the above cause margins have come way off and regulation and other costs are higher. While its a bit shocking that no one really cared about the "true cost of doing business" before when margins were high the issue with commodities is you need to have a physical presence and that costs capital more so than equities and bonds.

Now that it is 7 years past 2008, I think the amount of open seats on all trade floors have shrunk and will continue to shrink. Back when I was coming out of school I interviewed for equity research/banking/trading etc...Firms were willing to overhire juniors and let them just find their way, I do not think that is the case these days, the pool of junior hires is a lot less and anyone with 2-5 years experience has a super difficult time transitioning so there is massive talent congestion in firms.

The good news to all of this would be, if truly into this area and ride it out. Due to less hires and tougher environment these days, compensation is still half decent and still performance based. So yes it has got a lot harder and yes it will get harder but if you really really want into this world and are fit for it, still high reward career.

 

Disclaimer: College student.

After speaking with a lot of people in the industry, it seems we are in the pinnacle of regulation. Now, there is definitely a chance regulation continues depending on the result of the presidential election. But more than likely, things will loosen up.

As for going to trading now, yes it is much harder than it used to be. But the information that I am receiving is that as things loosen up, there will be over-hiring once again and it will be a big business again. Especially if you start in a time of rising rates, it might be cool to trade in this new environment.

Lastly, buyside is always an option. If your desk is more execution based (probably more in equities), there are buyside execution opportunities. If your desk is set up differently (ABS, CMBS, Credit, structured credit) you may be able to go as the PM for an asset manager or hedgefund.

P.S. I don't actually know what I am talking about myself. I am simply taking information that I have heard from various people and synthesizing it into this post. So, feel free to correct me anyone.

 
failureoflife:
After speaking with a lot of people in the industry, it seems we are in the pinnacle of regulation. Now, there is definitely a chance regulation continues depending on the result of the presidential election. But more than likely, things will loosen up.
I think the people who told you that are kidding themselves. History suggests the regulatory pendulum could swing a whole lot further.

But further regulation might mean something more akin to Glass-Steagall, which could open the door to more risk-taking for the entities that go down that path.

 

I don't usually post but this topic sounded interesting so I figured I'd throw my 2 cents in there.

I've worked in trading for about 10 years making markets in ETFs (trading etfs, adrs, global equities, futures, fx, and fixed income, and reversal/conversions) at one of the better prop trading firms. Since 2008, every year it got harder and harder to made money with the exception of 2008 and 2011 where volatility was very high but we had to make more and more investments into getting faster market data feeds and our developers became more expensive. When I joined the desk, a lot of our hedging was not automated, only our quoting was. By 2014 most things were fully automated and our P&L was it's worst ever. I think this was a result of a few things. Competition is forever increasing, volatility has been pretty low over the last 3 years; volumes keep going down because more and more people do not trade on lit exchanges anymore; asset managers have learned to use dark pools to not tip their hand and more and more flow is being internalized by banks and the knight/citadels of the world. Asset managers have hired good traders internally and in turn, they have realized the best places to execute are the knights/citadels/cantors of the world and the only reason I can think of why an asset manager would execute through a place like Goldman is because of the access and other services Goldman provide for those extra commissions you are paying them. Equities are in general becoming more and more a technology game and there's going to be a massive consolidation in the prop trading industry where if you are not in one of the very big prop firms with good tech, it'll become harder and harder to survive.

In the fixed income world, Marketaxess is going to make salesman and traders become less relevant. For those who don't know how the bond market has historically worked, it has traditionally been voice and dealer to dealer and there are different marking services like Markit and IDC that mark the bonds rather than a last traded print in the equities world. Before you needed all those sales people because it was dealer to dealer and a trader's value (this probably only applies to market making) is really the ability to know where a bond really should be trading and being able to find the bonds and get them at a good level. MarketAxess is changing that by trying to become the next fixed income exchange. They don't quite have live quotes yet; it's still RFQ but it's pretty close. You can also read jamie dimon's and larry fink's comments about banks not being able to provide as much liquidity and holding less inventory as well so why do you need fixed income market makers at banks?

That being said, the general amount of money to be made out there but it's just ending up in fewer and fewer hands - aka HFT so imo, if you are not involved with the HFT space of trading, i think it'll be difficult and you'll be joining a shrinking industry rather than a growing one. That being said, HFT may be a good place to go but it is already super competitive and starting to get saturated. There's a lot of firms the majority of people here have never heard of that are right there with Virtu making a lot of money with 10-20 people. Also remember, Getco which was one of the better HFT not too long ago; now they make 0 money.

Investments banks will always have trading desks but I believe more and more banks will focus on being client focused for most of their traders and a few banks will invest into high frequency groups. Banks want to say they cover the major asset classes if a client calls and asks for a market and if you can help a bank build a desk they didn't have before, you'll still get paid relatively well.

 

From what I understand (and someone should correct me if I'm wrong), equity is dominated by algo trading these days... There are less jobs because they're being automated, and Volcker takes away incentive on top of that.

I wouldn't say that equity trading is going away, rather that the skill sets for the job are more down the alley of computer scientists these days than those of economists.

Then out spake brave Horatius, The Captain of the Gate: "To every man upon this earth, death cometh soon or late. And how can man die better than facing fearful odds, For the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods."
 

Equity trader here, though on the hedge fund side. I've spoken to a lot of traders about this and the consensus is that there will always be a need for a sales trader, but the number of seats is diminishing. Yes computers are changing the landscape and nearly everyone uses algorithms now, but clients will always need someone to speak to. Another thing to consider - the average sales trader is in his mid-late 30's. There are not a lot of young people in the business, and I think there's a tremendous opportunity if you can get your foot in the door and take over accounts of some of the older guys leaving the industry.

 

Sorry if the question is stupid. But equity traders in hedge funds are they not split into two roles ? In the sense, you have a sales person who calls the clients and gets investment? Then the other person (the trader) actually invests the money ?

 

Equity trading jobs consists of:

a) sell side execution desks: these are getting fewer and fewer as simply less people are needed. Its as unglamorous of a job as it was when Michael Lewis wrote about equities in dallas

b) inter dealer brokers: mostly execution stuff, wouldnt recommend it. Being a broker can be VERY lucrative, id go as far as to say it is one of the best pay to work/risk jobs out there as long as you are good at making friends (what the job boils down to), but id say this only for less liquid products/derivatives, not cash equities. I would pass.

c) execution at hedge fund: non discretionary, you are simply executing orders. Theres a lot of science to it and its definitely a skillset, and its for some people, but dont be deluded that you are an investor.

The job of a short term cash equity discretionary trader is very very rare. The best I have seen is the execution guys at a big stat arb firm being given a small prop book on the side.

 

Equity trading depends on your market imo. I.e. USA/developed markets you're looking at a shrinking industry as long-term if capital pressures stay high on banks, tech is cheaper than people.

In Emerging/developing markets or say HK (as a small but fleeting exception), equity trading still exists (as facil) and would have a longer period of survival due to the relative maturity of the market microstructure, but DMA (direct market access) and algos are visibly creeping in.

Bottom-line if you want discretionary trading you'd be at a prop shop. Can't talk much to hedge funds, but with equity as an asset class, I wouldn't suspect anything beyond a pure execution role.

 

Alright...first of all... trading is not dead. Your sample seems small and it's biased- you're only looking at BB. Of course trading has declined in that sphere. However, prop trading, trading at hedge funds, corporate trading and even annexed BB-affiliated entities (which are legally independent) STILL continue to exist every day. Thinking that "trading is dead" in a universal context is preposterous. Do your research.

 

I don't think you can argue that trading opportunities have not declined substantially. The transformation has been pretty radical since the 1980s. Computers replaced much of the floor traders. Chicago's pits are empty. NYSE specialists are essentially ghosts now. NYSE invested heavily in ARCA as ECNs do a better job with the order flow.

When the markets became increasingly electronic the # of individuals to man those systems decreased too. There was a rush to build the architecture for quant operations but eventually when the systems are built you won't need too many workers.

I believe that Institutions are also increasingly skeptical of the value added by S&T desks. Not sure if they need all of the services by the intermediaries. Equities research is much smaller since the tech bubble. Commodities enjoyed a boom and now Barclay's supposedly laid off 20% of their commodities S&T desk. People are more suspicious of many of the esoteric derivative products. And with regulation prop trading has slowed in the U.S. Prime brokerage is one area that should remain strong though.

Of course there will always be traders but it's def not what it used to be. A lot of traders are also nothing more than sales people.

So yea, replace dead with declined significantly

 

markts have been moving sideways for awhile now

its not going to die, but the opportunities to make big swings are fewer

i took a nice T/P on the eur/usd of 140 pips the other day. got lucky and was long during a news event :)

alpha currency trader wanna-be
 

Definitely has been slowing down... bonus pools are smaller, head count is falling at the majority of the shops out there... anyone who tells you otherwise is lying (probably mostly to themselves). Banks are getting regulated out of products that used to consistently print money, and funds are underperforming.

Is it going to go away? No, it never will... but if you're in undergrad expecting to enter trading and get bonused out like it was the mid-2000s, yeah... not going to happen.

But you can either sit and cry about it or you can make the most out of the 'new normal.' Head count is lower so more opportunities are out there, and management is keen to retain and re-tool key staff (and in that sense, the more products you have experience covering, the more valuable you will be for the rest of your trading career). You can still make 250-500k/year in your 20s (sure some will make more, but now that's an outlier), which is nothing to sneeze at in any economy... and really, as a young guy, this could be the opportunity of a life time.

When times are good it is really hard to get into a good seat. So look at it this way: you're writing yourself a call option. If trading really does come back, you would've gone through the shittiest patch the industry has seen in decades in a junior role... and if you can't see why that's a good thing then you don't belong in the industry.

Or it can all go tits up. Who knows.

 

(I'm going to anticipate comments from all you haters so you can save yourselves the trouble)

I am a junior on a trading desk and I think it's pretty shitty. You don't get any useful skills, even if you take a step back and consider it in terms of personal development. What am I learning besides buy low sell high? How is this giving me a set of valuable skills in the grand scheme of things?

So maybe you think doing research will give you a fundamental understanding of the industry and what not. Well, it's equally depressing because people with years and years of experience and "industry knowledge" can be DEAD WRONG in their calls. Like so wrong it's not even funny. Like why does anyone even bother?

Which leads me to my next point, one which Bondarb often talks about. Doesn't matter what your idea/view is, but the technique for trading around it. How you structure the trade, position sizing, stops, adds, managing correlations in your book, all that good stuff. You can probably be a shitty idea generator (equal chance of being right and wrong) but if you have the TECHNIQUE you can have positive returns.

But then you ask yourself, can I learn this on a sell-side trading desk, where all the stars have gone to hedge fund land, where most of the people that remain are disillusioned with the current state of the industry (compared to the good old days), where risk is being cut, where you are told to trade more with clients. Maybe, maybe not. Why the fuck is anyone going to teach you more than you need to do your job, which is making your boss's life easier? They sure as hell aren't going to share the secret sauce with you (unless they're old farts about to retire, but by then they also pretty much don't give a fuck anyway).

All right now for all you haters: - "Why don't you just quit? Hundreds of hungry kids would take your spot in a heartbeat?" Well too bad. I fucking worked for this spot and earned it. Get your own. Also, if you are smart and hungry enough to be a baller in trading you can probably become a mega-baller in some other career path that has arguably more impact on the world. It's not about dealing with the "new normal" as someone said - if you really recognize the new normal and are halfway smart/capable you should go do something else.

  • "Why don't you go do that then, if you're so smart?" Because I'm a pussy. As someone else said, you can be assured of a decent living at a relatively young age if you don't fuck up. That doesn't mean it's not depressing. And monotonous.

  • "You don't need transferable skills. Trading is the exit opp, dumbass" Well, that's assuming you can stand it, and that you don't suck. And with all the brainpower that's been attracted to this industry thanks to the dolla dolla billz of yesteryear, it's much harder not to suck on a relative basis.

Ok that's it, I kinda ran out of anticipated hater questions. Bring it on.

 

First. Hit the bid on 7, and lift the 3s for mad size. Re-offer at 5 for size.

Next, trading for sure sucks right now, is it dying depends what you define as dying if you think the norm was the 2004-2008 then for its way worse, if you think the norm was the 1980s and 1990s more reasonable for sure. As a junior on a desk in this environment if you think someone is going to help you out or teach the way you are a dummy and need to understand its all on you, you also need to understand that as a junior eff-ing up once in a while not the worse thing in the world, only ever as a junior could you eff-up and come back all the great ones in the past have done so, just don't eff up to a point you get canned.

Skills/Transferable. The only thing I would say I have learned in 3 years truly is "how to define value for something". I think that is a very important skill, trading forces you to take away emotion at times and find the most efficient way to do something while also assessing the risk/reward. Many corporate decisions in this world, such as M&As have failed because people in charge never had to undertake that exercise, I think that skill alone and being in the trenches creates that mind-frame of "what is true value and why it matters" above all else. Does this mean you lack learning other skills, such as creativity/soft-skills/etc yes ofcourse but you can let other people do that and just be the voice of reason.

The amount of firms/executives which I have seen that have no idea what hedging really is, or why do it is crazy. Or the amount of times you read about so-and-so who spent $$$ on marketing a new product, R&D, etc yet does not understand that similar to a hedge by focusing your assets in once space you are vulnerable in others is shocking to me. If there is anything trading teaches you is to better plan or organize such decisions, heck most sell-side shops instead of running over customers should really be helping correctly plan such decisions.

My rant done.

 

Yeah trading is not dead and will never be. No one halfway intelligent thinks that. But it does suck in its current state, as you observed.

Trading teaches you how to define value for something? Why not do IBD instead?

In trading the price is the price, it goes up if people lift and down if they hit. The price can be pushed way out of line from "true value". So are you trying to say that trading teaches you that value is whatever people will pay for something? If so I didn't need to do trading to learn that. If you are saying the opposite, that an asset or set of cash flows has a true fundamental value, then trading doesn't teach you how to find that. And even the research people get it wrong all the time, and they're supposed to be skilled at that.

Someone tell me how trading has taught you to value a currency or commodity on an absolute basis? It's mostly relative value - you look at skews and curves and think "omg this is at ytd lows/highs and it usually mean-reverts! buy/sell!". Greaaaat.

Nothing personal but this is something I've observed in general. People that are still talking up trading are either: a) senior desk heads whose job is to make sure the desk doesn't blow up so they can collect their deferred comp. they talk it up so the juniors work their ass off. we are being worked just as hard today if not harder than in the past when times were good. b) mid-level people that aren't getting promoted quickly/getting as much money as they thought. so they talk trading up to justify their shitty situation to themselves because it's a sunk cost and they can't really switch at this point without dropping 200 grand on an mba.

Note: to two posters above, you are spot on with the "cog in the machine" analogy. most trading jobs you ain't shit without the franchise. i don't know about you guys but i am personally extremely individualistic. and the way it's set up now at BB's is fucking soul-crushing for someone like me.

 

here we go again...this thread has come up weekly on this board for the last decade.

1) Trading at banks/dealers is declining in profitability for many reasons some of which are temporary and some of which may be more permanent. 2) Trading more broadly, encompassing activity that goes on at hedge funds, non-bank corporates, and other places is still very much alive and well...i would argue that overall total compensation for traders has never been higher. 3) Trading is a skill and learning how to do it doesnt have a tremendous amount of carryover to other skills. 4) I am very happy to hear that the next generation doesn't want to go into trading like they did 5-7 years ago as it makes my skill set more unique.

 

Bondarb, the last few posters (myself at least) have been referring to the decline of sell-side trading. Non-bank/buyside/hedge fund trading is probably not as shitty. In fact I think going forward a lot of the liquidity provision might even move to the buyside e.g. BlackRock starting a bond trading platform. So we actually agree.

THIS was my point:

DeutscheSuisse:
Which leads me to my next point, one which Bondarb often talks about. Doesn't matter what your idea/view is, but the technique for trading around it. How you structure the trade, position sizing, stops, adds, managing correlations in your book, all that good stuff. You can probably be a shitty idea generator (equal chance of being right and wrong) but if you have the TECHNIQUE you can have positive returns.

But then you ask yourself, can I learn this on a sell-side trading desk, where all the stars have gone to hedge fund land, where most of the people that remain are disillusioned with the current state of the industry (compared to the good old days), where risk is being cut, where you are told to trade more with clients. Maybe, maybe not. Why the fuck is anyone going to teach you more than you need to do your job, which is making your boss's life easier? They sure as hell aren't going to share the secret sauce with you (unless they're old farts about to retire, but by then they also pretty much don't give a fuck anyway).

 
shortvolwhynot:

What sort of desks do you work on where you literally learn no technical skills? Cash Equities?

Completely agree. If you were a junior on my desk and aren't learning tangible skills (whether it be expertise in the product, risk management or trade conceptualization) then you're doing something wrong.

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 

Most traders are the worse mentors, teachers etc there is. You learn mostly by doing and being in the trenches if you need mentoring/grooming etc..seek it elsewhere. If you cannot figure out 70% of what your boss is doing/trying after a while and need everything explained not sure what to tell you, there is little patience for that. Bondarb said it the best, you need to prove yourself and thinking before you even gain the respect for anyone to bother to guide you. Oftern today many new-grads/juniors come in thinking its 2006-2008 and before they have mastered, killed it, start to ask all sorts of questions, that is not how it works.

Most desk heads became a desk head by being really at what they do not by managing a team or leading them to succeed.

 

Dealing in the traditional sense is certainly dying. There is no need to pay people epic sums of cash to sit in a chair all day, yell "mine" and "yours", and creep on saleswomen. A machine can do all that and is not a risk for a sexual harassment lawsuit. This however does not impact the money management space, but it is worth pointing out that a lot of money managers, especially in the leveraged space, do not consistently produce results that merit getting paid 2/20 or whatever the going rate is now.

Risk management is the skill. Freedom is the exit opportunity.

Having someone "mentor" you is earned, not something that can be placed by HR as part of a global markets graduate program. I'm not really sure where the surprise is here. Failing to do your job on a daily basis is what will prevent a junior trader from getting to the next level, considering that none of them run any considerable amount of risk, and ultimately this is what most people fail to learn coming out of school. You can mess up where the decimal goes on a calc test and still get a 9/10 on the problem. A similar error in trading can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, despite it "generally falling into the category of "bitch work". From when your day starts to when your day ends, your focus needs to be on right now if you have any plans of making it to the end of the year. Leave the extra-curricular learning projects for after work, because no one who determines how much you get paid gives a fuck what you are trying to learn in your free time. Junior traders don't fail because of bad mentors, they fail because they have no focus and are constantly focused on the five year plan. If you fuck it up today, five years doesn't really matter.

 

It is an undisputable and a well known fact, that happier employees make for higher proftability. This can shown empirically and rationally. I dont see why this would not apply to analysts. A big part of employee dissatisfaction is lack of communication. you're certainly not going to lose money or time if you simply have more open communication with your junior employees.

 

Accusamus dolorem ipsum et perspiciatis sit magnam. Ipsa beatae consequatur dolores voluptate.

Velit est et dolore et repellendus nostrum. Vero qui rerum dolore reprehenderit explicabo. Sint amet sunt voluptas labore expedita autem velit. Error dolorum saepe dolore. Nobis placeat pariatur ratione molestiae aut fuga. Dolore ad quaerat quia voluptas cupiditate.

 

Repellat veritatis suscipit quaerat deserunt. Ad sint iusto corrupti vel adipisci. Atque non atque corrupti. Eum culpa ex ex ex quis asperiores et.

Commodi aperiam esse sed. Ad beatae cupiditate sed fuga qui. Earum porro quae architecto quis. Veritatis ex harum vel ducimus quae. Nam rerum sit ab id ut. Suscipit aliquid velit velit et libero.

Quas amet sed sit ipsum amet nisi. Consequatur quidem dolorem et aliquam error. Quaerat eius delectus aperiam quas quidem qui. Ipsam voluptas magni ipsa porro culpa voluptas animi.

Suscipit quasi vitae non sed. Similique vel alias totam.

 

Occaecati aut exercitationem doloremque amet. Voluptatem fugiat exercitationem aspernatur aspernatur expedita et animi. Fugiat aspernatur ut delectus quaerat minus tempora autem.

Qui qui animi quis ut consequatur dolore. Fuga ea est velit asperiores vero occaecati. Est enim natus nostrum tempore iste excepturi. Consequatur quaerat velit cum et. Tenetur sit ab ut ut nostrum. Ea amet deleniti voluptates et doloribus tenetur. Et ratione ullam sunt sit occaecati reprehenderit blanditiis.

 

Et molestiae rerum ut laborum. Laboriosam sit quo quasi nulla voluptatem nihil. Illo tempora nulla voluptate qui accusantium. Est explicabo pariatur sequi eos illum voluptatem dignissimos.

Voluptas nihil distinctio pariatur suscipit natus. Recusandae sapiente id odit ratione. Explicabo ullam et velit nemo cum impedit iste.

Est cupiditate in doloribus quasi placeat velit. Ut necessitatibus qui et est suscipit aut. Nulla omnis esse omnis nulla consequatur ut. Quos et nam voluptatibus cumque rem suscipit. Molestias expedita pariatur voluptas qui qui commodi. Neque odit iste optio amet beatae. Beatae consectetur rerum aut sit libero.

Nesciunt omnis maxime similique pariatur. Sit maiores atque quas architecto fugiat aut. Quibusdam aperiam placeat dolor alias excepturi. Commodi et illum ad exercitationem et expedita. Harum totam consequuntur cum consectetur aut. Eos ea possimus numquam nesciunt maiores possimus. Est porro qui delectus.

 

Voluptatum cum necessitatibus quo quia dolore. Enim hic voluptas eveniet qui ut quas. Et consequatur delectus rerum rerum sit sunt voluptatem. Atque iusto qui dolorem quas consequatur provident provident facere. Nihil atque tempore consequatur et sint aliquid et. Est debitis incidunt voluptas consequatur.

Distinctio ducimus nisi harum amet ad labore ullam. Quis vero praesentium exercitationem eos commodi. Libero sint unde provident nisi quae quod. Et aperiam deleniti accusantium.

At consequatur enim tenetur quia. Quos accusantium et tempore et enim ut tempora. Suscipit ab ducimus ducimus ut voluptatem rerum. Voluptatem quaerat et minima quia.

 

Voluptas tenetur consequatur sed amet eos. Numquam a est itaque quidem quam. Occaecati quo et id omnis sit.

Sed blanditiis soluta velit. Voluptate possimus numquam id quidem necessitatibus iusto et tenetur. Nostrum aut dicta enim qui. Occaecati quis et at. Tenetur non sint voluptatibus sed repudiandae. Rerum doloremque quo aut laboriosam iste dolorem. Enim laborum dolorem voluptas deleniti aperiam dolor.

Maiores ut libero nam at voluptatum tenetur. Accusantium saepe minima assumenda molestiae. Quidem accusamus suscipit numquam dolor. Aliquid voluptatem quo doloribus in tenetur.

Dolorum et modi nostrum rem non in. Magnam omnis consequatur et distinctio. Nemo ipsum dicta labore aut molestiae quaerat. Officiis deleniti consequatur facilis enim incidunt quod soluta.

Career Advancement Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. New 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (205) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (145) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”