Life Gonna Be Harder for Juniors

Let me tell you this sad fact: this industry is systematically shrinking. All jobs gone won't come back. There will be more funds closing than opening in future. Less new jobs will be created. More smart people will fight for an investment or trading job. Tons of people will get laid off, especially those work in European banks.people who already work in industry will get paid less in future because a few big companies take all market share. With increasing level of automation and less competitors companies simply don't think they need to pay you more. Simple supply and demand problem. Investment jobs are still going to exist except gonna be harder to get and you get paid less. Even you have a niche skill you will see less players in that market so your pay won't raise. 

you need to understand one simple thing, if you want a good pay, you have to work in an industry where new jobs are consistently created.

Maybe it is time to force big companies to break up so more jobs are created?

You shouldn't feel surprised. Same story happened to every other mature and commodizited industry. No exception in finance industry.

involution is inevitable.

 

Comments (148)

 
Aug 26, 2020 - 9:34pm

truth to be told, not just juniors. bonus this year is going to be ugly for everyone. 

the only reason a company will pay you well is you can show them a big competing offer. but if nobody's hiring, then your bonus is you get your job kept.

still more opps for junior than senior. if a senior lost his job, he will have a much harder time find new one

 

 

 
Aug 27, 2020 - 9:26pm

Yeah I've been saying this for years now, but prospects, interns, analysts, and associates just don't wanna hear it. The VPs and MDs are the ones that see the shit coming from a mile away and are trying their hardest to get as much as they can before their head is next up for the chopping block.

 
Aug 28, 2020 - 1:18pm

there's listening to what you want to hear and then there's seeing the red flags and the downward trend of the finance industry. Not enough work to go around, MDs getting laid off for not bringing enough in revenue, bulge bracket banks switching up their core business model to focus on retail clients instead of corporate/institutional clients, shift in bonus structure where stocks are being given instead of cash especially the higher up the chain you go, as well as shrinking cash bonuses for analysts and associates and increases in base salaries instead, automation of technology has practically destroyed S&T, traders are no longer needed except for emerging markets where the infrastructure is not yet in place for automation but will be there in 10 years from now. 

This isn't just for Banking, this goes for Hedge Funds and Private Equity funds as well. Hedge funds will have to close up shop because a. not easy to run a profitable shop and have consistent returns that beat the SP500 year after year, also more competition than ever before, golden era of HF was the 90s when they were a new thing. PE same deal, MFs are super competitive to get into and super hard to make any money because there are hardly any deals to make anymore, risks are now far outweighing the rewards, so much so that MFs are stooping down to VC investment when back in the early days of the MFs they were taking down whole publicly listed corporations. Then there's lower MM PE, so much competition for such dog shit deals I wouldn't be surprised if 90% of these funds closed down because they didn't invest any of the funds they had or they just were never able to make a profitable return because of all the dog shit deals they invested in.  

 
Oct 11, 2020 - 11:44am

Back 10 years go when I still work in sell side trading fixed income my bonus was $300k but 3 years ago was $50k with same $250k base salary. Ironically, my P&L  three years ago is much better than when I was ten year years ago. 
I know you may think that's still a lot of money, but you have to think that my wife doesn't work, I have two kids in private schools, my $2M apartment in the city comes with high maintenance HOA and taxes.

Once you work in industry, your mentality of spending lavishly will be hard to change. When you start to make less, your happiness level down significantly.

 
Oct 7, 2020 - 10:38am

I am a VP trader work in a tier one BB (one of MS/GS/JPM) for 8 years. I traded credit and equity derivatives. Throughout career, my total comp never go above $300k even in years desk made a lot of money. My ex-boss told me before 2008 at my level with he can bring home $1M in good years.  To get things even worse, firm management want to make MDs club more exclusive. Job mobility isn't great. Five years ago, when someone at my desk want to leave the company, the manager tried to keep him by raising salary. Nowadays, the manager just said "okay". Why? Because there are less players in this market. Companies have pricing power. More people need jobs than  firms hiring. 

I do think this industry can be lucrative again but it needs some help from politician.

 

I agree gov should break up big companies. For example, they should break a big BB into ten smaller firms. That will create more jobs. Also in buyside, they should break up Citadel / Millennium and other big institution investors as they are getting too many market shares. 

Capitalists may argue bigger size improve efficiency , but it comes at cost of employee compensation slide. 

By the time we see bigger banks and funds face more anti-trust and are forced to break up, we will see more jobs. I wrote a mail to my local congressman and he also support break up big financial instutions. 

When that day happens, compensation will be great again!

 

Join my campaign, write letter to your local Congress man / Congress woman ask them to break up big financial institutions. It is good for American jobs!

 

 
Aug 28, 2020 - 2:36pm

I agree with the overall message. 

What I disagree with is the speed at which this change is taking place. People have been saying that this is a dying industry for, what, 8-10 years? And it is, but it still remains a damn good job if you're coming out of college. Maybe not a sure bet career-wise, but definitely a good start to a career. 

Not only that, but if you adjust comp for hours worked, it remains very competitive with IB and other high paying industries. 

 
Aug 28, 2020 - 2:41pm

Nope.

I have many data points showing utility of working in Facebook for 8 years have much higher utility than working in Goldman Sachs for 8 years.

Mean and median compensation is higher when work in big tech. Standard deviation is much lower in tech which can be a good or bad thing, but overall risk adjusted return sharpe ratio is way much more higher when work in tech

lifestyle is much better when working in tech

 
Aug 28, 2020 - 2:42pm

Nope.

I have many data points showing utility of working in Facebook for 8 years have much higher utility than working in Goldman Sachs for 8 years.

Mean and median compensation is higher when work in big tech. Standard deviation is much lower in tech which can be a good or bad thing, but overall risk adjusted return sharpe ratio is way much more higher when work in tech

lifestyle is much better when working in tech

 
  • Intern in Other
Aug 28, 2020 - 6:17pm

2020 grads are completely fine because they would've already had FT offers before COVID hit.

2021 grads would've already had SA positions secured and many firms are doing guaranteed return offers.

2022 grads are fucked because SA 2021 positions are getting reduced to make up for overhiring.

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Aug 29, 2020 - 5:33pm

They're not - HF are facing a barbell shape, some megafunds killing it, some smaller shops killing it, middle out to dry.

Same thing in S&T. If you're at a top 5 BB - you have an AWESOME job. If not, not so much. All the size is flowing to the big dogs. And trust me, clients trade with you not only for the execution but for market color. The buy side wants to know what other fast money is doing, long only, retail, etc. A computer can't provide that as a computer can't talk on the phone to a buy side trader (Siri I am looking at you you dumb bitch).

Further, S&T and DCM revenues are pretty much the only reason the M&A and coverage people will have any bonus this year, as markets and dcm revenues soar while the M&A market is colder than Shaq at the free throw line.

Tl;Dr: if you're at a big BB, pursue s&t if you're interested. If you can't go to a big BB, go IB or something else.

 
Sep 7, 2020 - 9:53am

They're not - HF are facing a barbell shape, some megafunds killing it, some smaller shops killing it, middle out to dry.

Looks to me that only mean one thing: low sharpe.  Very low mean return but high standard deviation. You should learn from finance 101 that you should always go for high sharpe opportunity if possible. If you just don't care about risk, probability, you will get much higher return from casino or lottery.
 

And trust me, clients trade with you not only for the execution but for market color.

Where did you get market color? Platform. They can replace you with other juniors easily. I can give you tons of example like this. You can still see good revenue or profit from s&t but clients choose the platform not you. So firms nowadays think individual are no longer important. With an established platform, they can easily replace everyone with cheaper junior or cheaper immigrant workers.

 

This industry of course will still exist, just like accounting. Except most of people in the industry don't get paid well, have worse lifestyle and less job security. If you are smart enough to join a tech, try it. If you aren't,  like me,  who stuck in a top 3 bb as a trader who made tons of money but management doesn't recognize you ,because they think client trade with us because of our overall platform not your individual merit. And I was asked to help make platform better so companies become less dependent on individuals. In the end, I didn't get paid well because management no longer think they need to pay me. The worst is management now think platform importance over people is a structural and systematic change that will last. Individual value will become less and less important over time.
 

Platforms I mean financing, tech, comprehensive products offering, high quality order flow and so on.

In the end I can't retire early with a few million dollars like my friends who work in big tech.

 
Aug 28, 2020 - 10:05pm

I'm no wizard by any stretch but I do know that the finance industry will always find a way to generate consumers, always. History proves it. 

"Full speed ahead, damn the torpedoes." -U.S. Navy General Farragut
 
Aug 29, 2020 - 3:40am

Deregulation might be one solution . Gotta vote for Trump and ask him to bring prop trading back. So banks can use client flow info to trade prop position again , just like what they did before 2008!

 
Sep 1, 2020 - 3:40am

Baby Boomers,aka The Guilty Generation caused all the pain today. 
They did wrong choice in economy, monetary, international policies.Don't even mention the aging problem they caused, Now  young people need to pay huge amount of tax to help those old people.

They had good old days and let our generation clean for the mess they left over.

 

 

 
Sep 1, 2020 - 3:44am

This industry won't die, you just get paid less. Most of people in this industry will no longer be nation's top 5%, more like nation's 20%.

It still suck because now your nerdy friend joined big tech who are less muscular than you get paid more and retired earlier. Happiness is relative, you won't feel the joy of being king of the world anymore.

 
  • Analyst 2 in S&T - Equities
Sep 1, 2020 - 6:54am

This is very true, unfortunately. However I think that this best applies on S&T for banks and maybe some funds

I find that in my field (commodities) you really have a lot of opportunities still available, especially if you ride the wave of new energies/resources. Think about eg biofuels, good margins, very illiquid and yet to be completely developed

this may also explain why a lot of my colleagues moved from eqd, rates or whatever to agri,bioproducts, power etc

 

is going to be very interesting to see developments

 
Sep 1, 2020 - 7:25am

Finance won't die, just more commoditized. Finance industry will be similar to accounting industry, less players and everyone get paid less. Totally normal in any highly commoditized industry  

 
Sep 1, 2020 - 7:26am

Look around world, how many banks are still largest company in their country in term of market cap? I know for sure not US and Canada.

i will say market cap is a good indicator

 
Sep 2, 2020 - 4:42am

No doubt that tech pays better junior people, but you need to consider also the progression. A software engineer is hired for coding and as such will not grow a lot in responsibilities beyond supervision of coding projects (of course you can quote thousands of exceptions, starting with Jeff Bezos himself), while your comp progression in finance remains very convex and almost doubles every 3 years, starting with a decent salary that few people in any country could dream of. Besides, there seems to be an alignment of some finance companies on tech standards. Jane Street presents itself as much as a tech company as a finance company, even adopts the culture of tech companies: give free food, foster a geek culture where people can almost trade in pajamas etc. Besides, you cannot compare Goldman Sachs and Facebook. That would have worked 10 years ago maybe. But Goldman is not the superstar of finance anymore. Rather compare Facebook and Citadel, or Google and Jane Street. Comparing a shrinking star in a stagnating industry and a rising star in a rising industry does not give any insight about the relative strengths of each industry.

I doubt finance is dying and tech is rising. It's just that technology is adopted in every sectors (with no exception for finance), so that the frontier between tech and the other industries becomes more and more meaningless. Is TwoSigma a tech or a finance company? Are HFT tech or finance companies? That triggers rebalance in comp, massive changes in business (more e-trading, narrower spreads and larger volume, etc.), evolution of business needs (more people who know coding).

I always find it funny when new grads complain about how finance is shrinking while their first pay is 40%-higher than the country median salary for basically doing nothing but shadowing and grabbing coffees for senior guys, just because they watched The Wolf Of Wall Street at 14 and decided it was worth spending one's youth throwing dwarfs on a rooftop to make their paid escort-girls laugh. If you want to make more money than at Goldman, switch to the buy-side and if you can't, it doesn't mean the industry is s***, it just means you're s***.

 
Sep 7, 2020 - 10:14am

I think the problem of progression is still the low sharpe problem. You see a few successful cases but for majority of people it didn't work out. Low mean return, high standard deviation, low sharpe.

 

For quant or HFT funds, they are in a very crowded field which I don't think hiring in this field will grow. It simply not that big of market, which can only let a few funds survive. Rest will get acquired or die. Then you see problems with other funds, established funds don't need to hire much.

 

If we want finance job to be great again, we need more hedge funds to be created. Otherwise job hunting will still be a buyer market even for senior people.
 

The biggest problem I will say for finance is we don't have many new players. We don't see many new hedge fund start ups anymore. More funds are closing than opening. While tech have that problem too, still nowadays capital are more interested flow into tech than finance because in the end those funds invest tech heavily anyway.  It is a complicated problem, besides tech , all other industries in US face similar problem. Without regulation (which unlikely to happen as they never able to break up Microsoft but they did break up big banks), tech will eat up other industries. which caused another problem, if everyone invest in tech, then hedge fund investors simply don't need to invest that many of funds given how those profitable funds share similar strategies. It doesn't provide diversification.

 
Sep 8, 2020 - 5:41pm

this is so wrong on so many levels. There are kids no even at FAANG places (those places are going to clean up at least every BB not only from junior but to mid levels as well). You're completely forgetting about the vesting schedule of stock optiosn they have. Uber / lyft for example you'll clear 750K+ in RSU's alone over a 4-5 year time horizon and that's not even a FAANG. 

 

Keep in mind you need to factor in tax (yes i know CA tax is stupid high, but so is NYC?) You're getting the payroll taxed shit out of you above 400K as well in new biden tax plan. That's 7% more you never knew you had to pay. So if you're an MD pulling 1 mil? 6% extra on your already ~50% effective rate. This is a pyaroll tax RSU's don't have to pay. Definitely learn more b4 you speak on this, and i'm not even in tech LOL

 
Sep 5, 2020 - 9:25pm

I've read these alarmists takes beforee and while I do agree there will be a culling of jobs in the near future between segments of industry that cruised the last decade, I think there will be ample opporunity in the next decade.

People surely are discounting how large of an impact Covid will have on the world moving forward. The next decade may not be as easily understood by many, I'm bullish Hedge Funds making a solid return (industry checks out) and bearish consistent up markets across the board. Buck will stop somewhere. 

 
Sep 6, 2020 - 11:58pm

Macro 

Tail Risk

EMs

Maybe even some activist plays

You'll likely see a resurgence of smaller funds that dominate more niche areas of the market. I think most pension funds are underweight hedge funds in the next decade, if their mandate is to achieve "7%", it may not be as easy as parking money in passive/target-date.

 
Most Helpful
  • VP in S&T - FI
Sep 6, 2020 - 11:07am

It's not gatekeeping, The career path is very bleak, and it's not just cause of market conditions or technology.

You wouldn't believe the amount of people I've met who spent 5-10 years at a bb, Got to director level, moved to a good hedge fund (millennium/bluecrest/brevan/graham) and then got cut after 3-4 years. They're 35-45 years old, haven't made enough to retire and can't get a job besides doing fintech sales or working at a broker for 100k a year + commission. There are so few seat that if you get fired you're screwed since your skill set is so narrow. 

imagine you're Working as an em credit trader, which is as illiquid as it gets. If your bank decides to scale back and you get let go, there are probably only 5 other banks active in Brazilian credit or whatever your speciality is, and 1-2 traders making Markets per bank, so only 10-15seats available in all of New York, and it's going to be pure luck whether you can land one of them. If you go to a multi manager fund, your first year your capital is too small to make real money, It's not like the old days where you could go and punt 500mm, make 50 and get a 10% payout your first year. Now your risk limits will be tight and you'll need to trade consistently with a 3+ sharpe for 3 years to be able to swing and make big money. 90% will be gone in 3 years, and there's nowhere else to go after that 

 

Im 6 years into my trading career, and despite 2020 being my best year ever pnl wise, Next year will be my last year trading before leaving the industry. I'd rather take the paycut now when I'm young and can still move, not when I'm 40 and trapped 

 

 
  • VP in S&T - FI
Sep 6, 2020 - 1:32pm

Anything related to data science/analytics requires a similar skillset/personality type, pays well and has lots of job security 

 

also, the barriers to entry to trade at the retail level are lower than they've ever been, and with access to high quality research and data cheap online there's almost no advantage left for institutional over retail. Some posters above were saying how clients trade with banks for information on flows and market color, but i can tell you first hand it's 99% shit and trading based on that info will cost you money

 

Personally, I'll be trading for for the rest of my life, but as a side job in my pa and not my main career 

 
Sep 20, 2020 - 12:28pm

It's a similar situation there. There are opportunities but the overall risk/reward is much worse than it was even 5 years ago. There are still very successful groups but they are usually not the ones hiring. As others said, there is often no room to grow because the senior people never leave, but they won't let you stay at a junior level long term either. I've seen quite a few people get pushed out in their late 30s (phd from top schools) and stay unemployed for over a year before going to a different industry.

 
Sep 8, 2020 - 4:51pm

I am a VP3 at a top bank in a very good desk.
What he is saying is true. THERE IS NO ROOM.

It's so frickin crowded it's unbelievable. Noone leaves, no room is created. Once you get to a "risk taker" seat by luck, you hold on to it for dear life.

People that are quite mediocre can hang around for 2-3 years, blocking seats just by their presence.

I've seen people stuck for 5-7 years not able to go anywhere, with a boss that will never be promoted but is happy to keep making 1-2m$, meaning they get to do half the work but get 20% of the pool because they are not "the boss of the book".

I am thinking after this bonus round i'll just tell them either you give me a seat at the table or let me go so i can enjoy my life a bit. Have enough savings to last few decades so f* it.

 
  • Trader in S&T - FI
Sep 10, 2020 - 1:12am

Very true, top BB trading here as well. Desks are extremely top-heavy 50%+ are ED's. 

I'm also seeing junior bonuses being reduced across the compared to the numbers from 3-5 years ago. Analysts having 30k bonus be the norm when 60k was the standard back then.

I'd be very grateful to hear your insight on what's been happing to bonuses on the mid and upper levels. 

 
Sep 17, 2020 - 4:33pm

Bonuses only losely follow performance, it's one component out of many.

Assuming the desk is performing reasonably, its basically how much pull your boss has and does he want to fight for you, your own "visibility", how much alpha your are perceived to generate as opposed to just "seat value". So lots of politics. And i actually benefited from it one year and got a huge raise. But then you kind of don't really understand why you got paid that much that year and then the following year you get +10% even though you made 2 x more.

It's not particularly motivating and encourages a bit of slacking.

 
Sep 25, 2020 - 2:09pm

More smart people will fight for an investment or trading job.

Why would these smart people choose to go to a dying industry, in your words?  This sentiment can be applied to software development roles, engineering jobs, medicine, etc..  The world is more competitive than it was in the 70s or 80s.

Honestly we've seen these types of threads since the mid 2000s and many people are still doing fine.  S&T, especially structuring and certain desks, isn't going anywhere.

 
  • VP in S&T - FI
Sep 25, 2020 - 2:41pm

New grads go into S&T cause they read old forum posts from 2015, when there was still hope things would get better.Its not happening.
 

Using your same logic, look at the amount of people who voluntarily left the industry. Since starting 6 years ago, out of 60+ Analysts only a handful are left with most having left the industry for greener pastures 
 

How many years have you been working in S&T? The change in just the past 5 years has been huge, and if you don't see the writing on the walls you are blind 

 
Sep 25, 2020 - 2:45pm

To be fair I haven't worked in industry yet, only talked to people currently in industry and researched online, so thanks for sharing.

As someone who will likely accept a 2021 SA intern position, are there certain desks you'd recommend I try to focus on (FICC rather than equities for example)?  Where have most of the analysts who have left gone to?

 
Sep 25, 2020 - 5:42pm

I think another good question many people are asking is, you work so hard, why banks or funds just don't want to pay you money you deserved. they used to pay a lot even market was not so good. And why after accounting people leaving and joining, we see a net outflow of investing and risk taking jobs?

 
Oct 2, 2020 - 12:17pm

You may not be able to tell pay since it is not opened data. But you can tell from amount of job postings, it is shrinking 

to make thing even worse , we will see more merge like UBS and Credit Sussie make industry headcount even slimmer 

 
Oct 2, 2020 - 8:35pm

Some important concepts

1. good company and team earnings != good personal earnings

personal earning is a result of supply and demand not result of performance 

 

2. good companies earning can means worse personal earnings

If you are at top performers of your assets, chances are these companies will do even better with more small players exit market, make job market oversupply 

 

 

in the end, unless you start your own fund, work for someone else is not really a result of performance 

 

If you are unhappy with your pay, go create your own fund!!!

 

you don't need a lot of money. Many people were able to grow capital from 100k to 1M in two years. If you can't do that, that probably means your are already overvalued. 
 

if you can make 100k to 1M in two years, then you can turn it to 10M in 5 years not so hard

 
Oct 2, 2020 - 8:37pm

If your asset class can not be trade in your PA then that means pricing power is at your firm and they can pay you whatever they like as long as they can find people.

luckily thanks to European banks layoffs, there are tons of ex trader looking for jobs

 
Oct 3, 2020 - 10:21am

Things won't go back to the good old days. I am slowly coming to terms with the fact that things are just going to keep getting worse and worse across the board. (Not only in finance)

The post WWII then post cold war period was an oasis of prosperity, reasonable peace and continuous improvement in the middle of an epic clusterfuck that is human history.

We just happened to start our life during the last 20-35 years of that oasis, brace yourself for the return to the norm, which is a big shitshow.

Humans still have their old prehistoric brain, they long for some stability, a loved partner that they can grow old with, and some sort of contribution to society. And it is becoming increasingly hard to do so.

 
Oct 3, 2020 - 8:05pm

Weak productivity (stagnation) and non-inclusive growth in the West since the 80s has certainly aggravated tensions and has probably led to this de-globalization period we now find ourselves in. 

But, then, what does a return to the Old Normal look like in the age of nuclear proliferation (I am assuming you mean a more zero-sum world)? It seems inherently different from the previous periods. 

 
Oct 7, 2020 - 12:45pm

Good points. I think there is an oversupply and commoditization of most skilled labor in the developed Western world. The internet and social media has increased awareness of different careers and made it easy for people to learn new skills, which eventually reduces the market value of those skills. It's allowing companies to pay people less (especially adjusted for cost of living) and treat them worse than they used to even 10 years ago. Even the jobs that pay well do so because of your rank in a corporate hierarchy and negotiation skills when you are hired, with less connection to your performance. Most other industries have been like this for 50+ years, but some parts of finance and tech were an exception until 5-10 years ago.

 
  • VP in S&T - FI
Oct 4, 2020 - 1:46pm

Do you really think you can make that work for a 30 year career if you're just getting into S&T now? If you're already an MD for a few years it's much easier, but the amount of people who's careers fizzle at VP and director level is really high. You can probably do it 2-3x max before you're out 

 
Oct 5, 2020 - 1:19pm

Out of the 10 or so people that were in my Analyst class:

-Only two remain in the business (both in sales).

-Three of us were fortunate to move (or be forced) to the buyside.  

-Two are completely out of the business in seemingly less paying/exciting jobs.

-Three have been 'on the beach' for some time (Average: 1yr).  

"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies."
 
Oct 9, 2020 - 11:03pm

Trump wasn't necessarily wrong. China did steal a lot of high paying finance jobs too. When China joined WTO, they said they will open financial markets to the world but it happened so slow and so little. 
If American companies can easily enter Chinese financial markets, then American will have have more jobs through expat.

I feel the corrupted evil cheating communist party did screwed US job markets in many senses.

 
Oct 11, 2020 - 5:31pm

I feel bad because living cost go up but compensation goes down when compare to early 2000s.

New York real estate was much cheaper at that time and Wall Street make more than any industry. No long the case with rich tech guys raise up property prices

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